Due to trade, investment, tourism and other economic exchanges in the world, there is always a currency balance relationship.But all countriesMonetary systemDifferent, if you want to pay abroad, you must firstLocal currencyPurchase of foreign currency;On the other hand, received from abroadForeign currency payment voucherIt must also be converted into local currency to circulate in China.Thus, the problem of exchange between domestic currency and foreign currency arises.BilateralPrice comparisoncallExchange rateorexchange rate。the WestAnd China'scentral bankFor executionForeign exchange policy, ImpactForeign exchange rate, institutions that often trade foreign exchange.All commercial banks that buy and sell foreign exchangeForeign exchange businessOur banks, foreign exchange brokers, importers and exporters, as well as its foreign exchange market suppliers and demanders, all operate variousSpot exchange transactionAnd futures exchange transactions.All these foreign exchange businesses constitute a country's foreign exchange market.
Chinese name
foreign exchange market
Definition
A trading place engaged in international foreign exchange trading and adjusting foreign exchange supply and demand
Foreign exchange seems to be far away from the general public, but it is closely related to everyone in the world.Foreign exchange trading is also an important form of investment or financing for many people.Now let's analyze what foreign exchange is.
The concept of foreign exchange has a dual meaning, that is, there are dynamic and static.
The static concept of foreign exchange can be divided into the narrow concept of foreign exchange and the broad concept of foreign exchange.
Foreign exchange in narrow sense
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It refers to those expressed in foreign currency, which are generally accepted by all countries and can be used internationallyCreditor's rights and debtsVarious means of payment for settlement.It must have three characteristics: affordability (assets that must be expressed in foreign currency)Availability(must be claims that can be compensated abroad) and exchangeability (must be able toFree convertibilityForeign currency assets for other means of payment).
Broad foreign exchange
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It refers to all assets in foreign currency owned by a country.International Monetary Fund(IMF) defines this as: "Foreign exchange refers to the monetary administration (central bank, monetary management institutionExchange Stabilization FundMinistry of Finance)bank deposit, treasury bonds of the Ministry of Finance, long-term and short-term government securities, etcBalance of payments deficitMay be used. "
The dynamic concept of foreign exchange refers to the movement of money between countries and the transformation of a country'sCurrency ExchangeIt is the currency of another country to pay off international creditor's rights and debtsoperating activities。It is short for Foreign Exchange.
Introduction
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one
Basic knowledge is necessary,
Suggestions《Introduction to Foreign Exchange Trading》Foreign Exchange Trading Market, Japanese Candle Chart Curve, Super Short Line Master, and Foreign Exchange A-Z speculation can also collect information online.Free Admissione-bookFXCMThis book and other foreign exchange technology free e-books are available in the download section of Global Jinhui
2. Choose a mainstream platform (subject toFSARegulatory orNFARegulation), indicating whether their operation and capital flow are standardized and conscientious, ensuring our safety. The UK FSA has the strictest regulation
4 It is important to set a stop loss and control the position when trading.
5 It is normal to keep a good attitude and make profits.(Note: You also need to know some basic foreign exchange knowledge.) Right.If you are a novice, you can register a foreign exchange simulation account with FXCM Global Gold Exchange for free.have a lookSimulated foreign exchange speculationIt's like this. You will understand it gradually.
Market time
Opening and closing time of major international foreign exchange markets（Beijing Time）：
New ZealandWellington foreign exchange market: 04:00-12:00
New York, USAForeign exchange market: 21:00-04:00, after understandingforeign exchange rateWhen it comes to basic knowledge and time, we need to pay attention to the classification and composition of currency knowledge in the basic knowledge video column of FXCM Jinhui Network
Monetary knowledge
one
stayforeign exchange rateWe often see English words, which use three English letters to represent the name of the currency. The dollar (USD), euro (EUR), yen (JPY) and pound sterling (GBP
two
The minimum change unit of international spot gold - point (PIP),Exchange rateGenerally, it is expressed in 5 digits. The last digit changes by 1, which is the minimum exchange rate change. It is called 1 point. One standard hand gold is 100 ounces
meaning
Foreign exchange market: In the past, ordinary people's understanding of the foreign exchange market was only a concept of foreign currency. However, after several periods of evolution, it has been better understood by ordinary people and has been appliedForeign exchange transactionsbyFinancial tools。The foreign exchange market isInternational RemittanceShort name of.The concept of foreign exchange market can be divided into static and dynamic.Dynamic foreign exchange refers to the financial activity of converting one country's currency into another country's currency to pay off international debts.In this sense, dynamic foreign exchange is equivalent tointernational settlement。Static foreign exchange can be divided into broad sense and narrow sense.Broadly speaking, foreign exchange is foreignexchange controlForeign exchange as referred to in laws and regulations.It refers to everything in generalExternal financial assets。Current《Regulations of the People's Republic of China on Foreign Exchange Control》Article 3 stipulates that foreign exchange refers to the means of payment and assets expressed in foreign currency that can be used for international settlement.In a narrow sense, foreign exchange refers to the means of payment expressed in foreign currency for international settlement.
in shortforeign exchange market: Refers to operating foreign currency and bills denominated in foreign currency, etcsecuritiesThe market for buying and selling is a major part of the financial market.
status
Technical analysis of foreign exchange market
Whether you know the foreign exchange market or not, everyone has become a part of it. In short, the money in your pocket has made you an investor in money.If you live in the United States, all loans, stocks, bonds and other investments are denominated in U.S. dollars. In other words, unless you are one of the few multi currency investors with foreign currency accounts or who have bought foreign currencies and stocks, you are an investor in U.S. dollars.
In terms of holding US dollars, you have basically chosen not to hold the currencies of other countries, because the stocks, bonds and other investments you have bought arebank accountAll deposits in are in US dollars.The appreciation or depreciation of the US dollar may affect the value of your assets, thus affecting the overallFinancial position。Therefore, many smart investors have made good use of itForeign exchange rateThe changeable characteristics of foreign exchange trading and profit from it.
Causes
Trade and investment
Importers and exporters inimportWhen you pay for one currency, you receive another currency when you export goods.This means that when they settle accounts, they receive and pay in different currencies.Therefore, they need to convert some of the money they receive into currency that can be used to purchase goods.Similarly, a company that buys foreign assets must pay in the currency of the country concerned, so it needs to convert its own currency into the currency of the country concerned.
Speculation
The exchange rate between the two currencies will change with the change of supply and demand between the two currencies.A trader can make profits by buying a currency at one exchange rate and selling it at a more favorable exchange rate.Speculation accounts for about the vast majority of transactions in the foreign exchange market.
hedging
Due to the fluctuation of the exchange rate between the two related currencies, companies with foreign assets (such as factories) may suffer some risks when translating these assets into the currency of the country.When the value of a foreign asset denominated in a foreign currency remains unchanged for a period of time, if the exchange rate changes and the value of the asset is converted in domestic currency, profits and losses will arise.The company can eliminate such potential gains and losses through hedging.This is the execution of a foreign exchange transaction, the result of which just offsets the gains and losses of foreign currency assets arising from exchange rate changes.[1]
development
The foreign exchange market has undergone several changes since its inception.Previously, the United States and its allies were guided by the Bretton Wood Agreement, that is, one country's currencyexchange rateIt was pegged to the amount of its gold reserves, but in the summer of 1971,NixonAfter the President suspended the exchange of dollars and gold, the exchange rate floating system came into being.The exchange rate of a country's currency depends on its supply, demand andRelative value。Reduction of barriers and increase of opportunities, such as the collapse of communism, Asia andLatin AmericaOfDramaticeconomic growth, alreadyForeign exchange investmentPeople bring new opportunities.
Driving force of foreign exchange market
Frequent trade andinternational investment With the increase of, the economies of various countries have formed an inseparable relationshipInflation rate、unemployment rateAnd some unexpected news such as natural disasters or political instabilityMonetary ValueThe change of currency value also affects the supply and demand of this currency in the world.The fluctuation of the US dollar continues to compete with other currencies in the world.International trade andExchange rate changesAs a result, the world's largest trading market, the foreign exchange marketEfficiency、FairnessAnd a world-class market with liquidity.Foreign exchange marketIt's cashInter-bank marketordealer The inter market is not the physical market in the traditional impression. There is no physical place for trading. Trading is through telephone and computerTerminalIt is carried out around the world. The direct inter-bank market is dominated by dealers with foreign exchange clearing transaction qualifications, whose transactions constitute theLarge amount transactionThese transactions created a huge amount of transactions in the foreign exchange market, and also made the foreign exchange marketLiquidityMarket.
The international foreign exchange market is the youngest market in the current international market.It was founded in 1971 when the gold exchange standard was abolished.FOREXThe daily circulation volume of the market reaches 4-5 trillion dollars, which is the world transaction volumeLargest market。There is no such stable and safe market!FOREX market isworld economyOfCentral systemIt always reflects the current events, and the market can't bear collapses and emergencies.
The foreign exchange market is the largest financial market in the world, with a daily trading volume of up to 150 billion US dollars.In the traditional impression, foreign exchange trading is only suitable for banks, consortia and financial managers. However, over the years, the foreign exchange market has continued to grow and has connected with foreign exchange traders around the world, including bankscentral bank、BrokerAnd corporate organizations, such as importers and exporters and individual investors, many institutional organizations, including the Federal Bank of the United States, have made huge profits through foreign exchange.Nowadays, the foreign exchange market not only provides opportunities for banks and consortia to make profits, but also provides opportunities for individual investors to make profits.
8. Importers and exporters and other foreign exchange suppliers and demanders
The participants in the above eight types of foreign exchange market transactions can be summarized into four major parts: the central bank, foreign exchange banks, foreign exchange brokers and foreign exchange market customers.The participation of these four major parts in the market constitutes five major forms or relationships of all transactions in the foreign exchange market:
(1) Foreign exchange transactions between foreign exchange banks and foreign exchange brokers or customers;
(2) Foreign exchange transactions between foreign exchange banks in the same foreign exchange market;
(3) Foreign exchange transactions between foreign exchange banks in different foreign exchange markets;
(4) Foreign exchange transactions between the Central Bank and foreign exchange banks;
Intangible foreign exchange market, also called abstract foreign exchange market, refers to the foreign exchange market without fixed and specific places.This market was initially popular in Britain and the United States, so its organizational form is called the Anglo American way.This form of organization not only extends toCanada, Tokyo and other regions, and also infiltrated intoContinental Europe。The main characteristics of the intangible foreign exchange market are: first, there is no fixed opening and closing time.Second, foreign exchange buyers and sellers do not need to conduct face-to-face transactions. Foreign exchange suppliers and demanders rely on telex, telegram, telephone, etcCommunication equipmentBank's contact with foreign exchange institutions.Third, there are goodTrust relationshipOtherwise, this transaction will be difficult to complete.In addition to foreign exchange transactions between some banks and customers in some continental European countries, foreign exchange transactions in the world are conducted through modern communication networks.Intangible foreign exchange market has become the dominant form of foreign exchange market.
The foreign exchange market can be divided into free foreign exchange marketForeign exchange black marketAnd the official market.
Official market: refers to the government'sExchange controlA market in which foreign exchange is traded by decree.This kind of foreign exchange market has a great impact on participantsExchange rateAnd transaction process.staydeveloping countryThe official market is relatively common.
Wholesale foreign exchange market: refers to foreign exchange transactions between banks and their venues.Its main feature is the large transaction scale.
International foreign exchange market
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The world foreign exchange market is composed ofInternational Financial CenterThis is a huge system.There are more than 30 foreign exchange markets in the world, the most important of which are London, New York, Paris, Tokyo, Switzerland, Singapore, Hong Kong, etc. They have their own characteristics and are located in differentcountries and regions The London foreign exchange market is a typicalInvisible marketThere is no fixed trading place, just through the telephonetelexComplete foreign exchange transactions by telegraph.On the London foreign exchange market, there are about 600 foreign exchange banking institutions involved in foreign exchange transactions, including domesticClearing Bank、Merchant bank, other commercial banksDiscount companyAnd foreign banks.These foreign exchange banks form the London Association of Foreign Exchange Banks, which is responsible for formulating rules and charging standards for participating in foreign exchange market transactions.
In the London foreign exchange market, there are about 250 designated operators.As foreign exchange brokers, they work withForeign currency depositBrokers jointly form the Association of Foreign Exchange Brokers and Foreign Currency Deposit Brokers.During the period of foreign exchange control in Britain, foreign exchange transactions between foreign exchange banks are generally conducted through foreign exchange brokers.After the abolition of foreign exchange control in Britain in October 1979, foreign exchange transactions between foreign exchange banks did not necessarily go through foreign exchange brokers.
Foreign exchange transactions in London foreign exchange market are divided intoSpot transactionandForward transaction。Exchange rate quotation adoptsIndirect pricing method, TransactionCurrencyThere are many, up to more than 80 kinds, often 30 or 40 kinds.transactionprocessing speed Very fast and efficient.Foreign currency arbitrage business is very active in London foreign exchange market, sinceEurocurrencymarket development Since then, foreign exchange trading in the London foreign exchange market has been closely related to the deposit of "European currency".European Investment BankActively issue a large number of Euromark bonds in the London market, making the London foreign exchange market more international.
structure
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According to the external form of the foreign exchange market, the foreign exchange market can be divided intoIntangible foreign exchange marketandTangible foreign exchange market。Intangible foreign exchange market, also called abstract foreign exchange market, refers to the foreign exchange market without fixed and specific places.This market was initially popular in Britain and the United States, so its organizational form is called the Anglo American way.This form of organization not only extended to Canada, Tokyo and other regions, but also penetrated into the European continent.The main characteristics of the intangible foreign exchange market are: first, there is no fixed opening and closing time.Second, foreign exchange buyers and sellers do not need to conduct face-to-face transactions. Foreign exchange suppliers and demanders communicate with foreign exchange institutions by telex, telegram, telephone and other communication equipment.Third, there is a good trust relationship between the subjects, otherwise, this transaction will be difficult to complete.In addition to foreign exchange transactions between some banks and customers in some continental European countries, foreign exchange transactions in the world are conducted through modern communication networks.Intangible foreign exchange market has become the dominant form of foreign exchange market.
Foreign exchange market transaction structure
Analysis of foreign exchange market
Tangible foreign exchange market, also known as the specific foreign exchange market, refers to the foreign exchange market with specific fixed places.This market was initially popular in the European continent, so its organizational form is called the continental way.The main characteristics of the tangible foreign exchange market are as follows: First, fixed places generally refer to foreign exchange exchanges, which are usually located in financial centers around the world.Second, both parties engaged in foreign exchange businessTrading dayOfSpecified timeDomestic foreign exchange transactions.In the period of free competitionForeign exchange tradingMainly concentrated in foreign exchange exchanges.But after entering the monopoly stage,Bank monopolyForeign exchange transactions, leading to the decline of foreign exchange exchanges.
Free foreign exchange market: refers to the market where governments, institutions and individuals can buy and sell any currency and any amount of foreign exchange.The main characteristics of the free foreign exchange market are: first, the foreign exchange traded is not controlled.Second, the transaction process is open.For example, the United States, Britain, FranceSwitzerlandAll foreign exchange markets in China are free foreign exchange markets.
Foreign exchange black market: refers to the market where foreign exchange is illegally traded.The main characteristics of the foreign exchange black market are as follows: First, it is generated under the conditions of government restrictions or laws prohibiting foreign exchange transactions.Second, the transaction process is non-public.becausedeveloping countryMostly implementedExchange controlThe policy does not allow the existence of a free foreign exchange market, so the foreign exchange black market in these countries is quite common.
Official market: refers to the market for buying and selling foreign exchange according to the government's foreign exchange control laws and regulations.This kind of foreign exchange market has specific regulations on participants, exchange rate and trading process.In developing countries, official markets are common.
Wholesale foreign exchange market: refers to foreign exchange transactions between banks and their venues.Its main feature is the large transaction scale.
Foreign exchange retail market: refers to the foreign exchange trading activities and places between banks and individual and corporate customers.
effect
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oneInternational settlementSince foreign exchange is used as a means of payment and clearing in international economic transactions, clearing is the most basic role of the foreign exchange market.
2. Exchange function: buy and sell currencies in the foreign exchange market, exchange one currency into another as a means of payment, and realize the exchange of different currenciespurchasing powerEffective conversion of aspectsThe main function of the international foreign exchange market is toCommunication equipment\Advanced business means provide a currency conversion mechanism to transfer the purchasing power of one country to another country and deliver it to a specific trading partner, so as to achieve inter countryPurchasing power of moneyOr transfer of funds
fourHedgingThat is, hedging futures trading.This is different from the purpose of speculative futures trading, which is not to make profits from price changes, but to makeForeign exchange incomeIt will not suffer losses due to future exchange rate changesexporterIs very important.If the exporter has a forward foreign exchange income, in order to avoid the risk caused by the change of exchange rate, the foreign exchange can be sold as futures;On the contrary, importers can also buy in the foreign exchange marketForeign exchange futuresTo meet future payment needs.
5. Speculation: i.eExpected priceTrading foreign exchange due to changes.In foreign exchangefutures marketOn,speculatorWe can use the change of exchange rate to make profits and generate "long" and "short" positions for the futureMarket situationPlace bets."Bull" means that it is expected that the exchange rate of a certain foreign currency will rise, that is, it will be bought at the current price. When the forward delivery is completed, the exchange rate of the foreign currency will rise, and it will be sold immediately at the "spot" price, so that the difference of exchange rate changes can be obtained.On the contrary, "short" refers to the expectation that the exchange rate of a certain foreign currency will fall, that is, the foreign currency for forward delivery will be sold at the current price. After the expiration, the price will fall, and the "spot" price will be used to buy and make up.This kind of speculation is to use different timeForeign exchange marketThe fluctuation of.In the same market, it can also be in the sameOne timeDomestic arbitrage activities take advantage of the differences in exchange rates in different markets.
Market function
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The function of the foreign exchange market is mainly manifested in three aspects: first, to realize the international transfer of purchasing power; second, to provideFinancingThird, it provides foreign exchange hedging and speculationmarket mechanism。
1. Realize the international transfer of purchasing power
International trade and international financing involve at least two currencies, and different currencies form purchasing power for different countries, which requires that the country's currency be converted into foreign currency to clear the creditor's rights and debt relationship, so thatpurchasing behavior Is realized.This exchange is carried out in the foreign exchange market.What the foreign exchange market provides is that such purchasing power transfer transactions can be carried out smoothlyEconomic mechanism, its existence makes various potential foreign exchange sellers and foreign exchangepurchaserWe can relate our wishes.When exchange rate changes in foreign exchange market make foreign exchangeSupplyExactly equal to foreign exchangerequirementAll potential sales and purchase wishes have been met, and the foreign exchange market isEquilibrium stateinSo, foreign exchangeMarket supplyA kind of purchasing power internationalTransfer mechanism。At the same time, because the developed communication tools have linked the foreign exchange market into a whole in the world, the currency exchange and capital remittance can be completed in a very short time, and this transfer of purchasing power becomes rapid and convenient.
2. Provide financing
The foreign exchange market provides international traders with convenient financing.The deposit and loan business of foreign exchange centralizes the social idle funds of various countries, so as to adjust the surplus and shortage and accelerate theCapital turnover。The foreign exchange market provides a guarantee for the smooth international trade. When the importer does not have enough cash to pick up the goods, the exporter can draw a bill of exchange to the importer, allowingDeferred payment, while usingDiscounted billTo sell the bill and get the payment back.The convenient financing function of the foreign exchange market also promotesInternational lendingAnd InternationalInvestment activitiesThe smooth progress of.US issuedtreasury billandgovernment bondsMost of them are purchased and held by foreign official institutions and enterprisesportfolio investmentIt is unthinkable to leave the foreign exchange market.
3. Provide mechanisms for foreign exchange hedging and speculation
In the international market where transactions are denominated in foreign exchangeEconomic transactionsBoth sides of the transaction faceForeign exchange risk。becauseMarket participantsSome participants prefer to spend a certain amount of cost due to different judgments and preferences on foreign exchange riskTransfer riskWhile some participants are willing to take risks to achieveExpected profit。As a result, foreign exchange hedging andForeign exchange speculationTwo different behaviors.staygold standardandFixed exchange rate systemThe foreign exchange rate is basically stable, so there will be no need and possibility of foreign exchange hedging and speculation.andfloating rateThe function of the foreign exchange market has been further developed. The existence of the foreign exchange market isHedgerIt provides a place to avoid foreign exchange risks, and also provides opportunities for speculators to take risks and obtain profits.
Many friends are familiar with the stock market and talk about it with relish.The foreign exchange market is still a new field for most peoplehabituationIf we copy our understanding to the foreign exchange market, it will bring some unnecessary trouble and confusion.
1. Different spaces
From the characteristics of the foreign exchange market, we can see that the foreign exchange market is a global market, while the stock market is a regional market;The foreign exchange market is invisible, while the stock market is tangible.
Detailed explanation of each trading period
Some friends often ask: What market is this quotation?This is influenced by the stock market.Since the foreign exchange market is a global open market, there is no question of which market the quotation is. The price we see is the latest quotation in this market. Although the market in Tokyo may be more active during this period, there may also be quotations in New York, London, Hong Kong and other regionsdealer In trading, it is difficult to determine the market from which the quotation comes, and there is no need to know.
2. Different standards
In the stock market, different regional markets will have differentmarket rulesIt is different from its own characteristics, but in the same market, everyone follows a unified standard.
In the foreign exchange market, due to itsglobalizationThe market has a high degree of tolerance and freedom. It is OK for everyone to follow the principles of fairness, voluntariness and integrity when trading together. There are no special requirements and rules.
3. Different transaction methods
The standardized stock market adoptscall auction The way of centralized matchmaking to complete the transaction reflects absolute fairness. Therefore, the same stock at the same time point cannot have different transaction prices.
The foreign exchange market is more like afarm product marketAll buyers and sellers are completely open, reflecting absolute freedom. Buyers can freely inquire about prices and sellers can freely quote prices. Both parties conduct transactions on a voluntary basis. The transaction price for both parties is "one willing to fight, one willing to suffer", which is completely different from the stock market,The foreign exchange market has no rules of collective bidding and computer matching.
Knowing the difference between the stock market and the foreign exchange market, investors will not be surprised by the difference in quotations between banks, which is completelyMarket behavior。
From the macro model in the 1970s to the increasingly popular micro foreign exchange market since the late 1990sStructural theoryResearch, although a lot of research work has made many encouraging progress, it can not explain the internal generation mechanism of exchange rate and its volatility.Correspondingly,Exchange rate theoryinMicro foundationThe relationship between and macro laws has not been reasonably explained.along withComplexity scienceIn the economy andFinancial researchA new financial market has emergedresearch method--Computational Experimental Finance.calculationExperimental FinanceWith multi-agentSimulation technologyBuild an artificial financial market, simulate the operation of the financial market, and discover the evolution law of the financial market.From the existing research results, the research of artificial financial market has made some progress, showing a good development prospect.
First, the protosporeautomataModel simulationThe foreign exchange market is analyzed from the perspective of traders' psychological expectations.Second, establish a foundation based onHeterogeneityTraders' exchange rate determination model, through the artificial foreign exchange marketsimulation experiment And analyze the evolution law of the complexity of the foreign exchange market.Then, the central bank intervention is introduced to improve the exchange rate determination model based on heterogeneous traders. Through the artificial foreign exchange market simulation experiment, the impact of central bank intervention on exchange rate stability is analyzed.Finally, combined with simulation experiments andPressure testAnd analyzedRMB exchange rate policyAdjust the impact on exchange rate stability, and put forward corresponding policy recommendations.
Although the assumption of artificial foreign exchange market simplifiesmarket structureIt is different from the real market, but it still describes the evolution process of the complexity of the foreign exchange market, providing a very effective means for the study of the evolution law of the foreign exchange market.The simulation experiment of artificial foreign exchange market shows that the complexity evolution of foreign exchange market and tradersBehavior modeClosely related.Changes in traders' psychological expectations are caused byExchange rate forecastOfUncertainty、environmental change Influence uncertainty and market trajectoryAperiodicityThe main reason for complexity characteristics such as cycle.
The main advantage of the foreign exchange trading market is its high transparency,Main fund(e.g. governmentforeign exchange reserveCapital exchange and foreign exchange of transnational consortiaspeculatorFund operation, etc.)Market exchange rateThe impact of change is very limited.On the other handFundamental analysisIt can be seen that important data (such asgross domestic product, central bank interest rate), speeches by senior government officials, or news released by international organizations (such as the European Central Bank).
The foreign exchange trading market has no specific location and no centerexchangeAll transactions are conducted between banks through the network.Any financial institution, government or individual in the world can participate in transactions 24 hours a day at any time.
Foreign exchange rate
Foreign exchange transactions are based onForeign currency exchangeAnother foreign currency.Quotation is the exchange rate, which is usually expressed by the exchange ratio between two currencies, such as USD/JPY, GBP/JPY. The exchange rate is the first currency (asBase currency）In the second currency (asPricing currency）To express the price.For example, the exchange rate of USD/JPY is 120.10, which means that one dollar can exchange 120.10 yen.A currency cannot be the exchange rate alone.exchange ratepriceThe smallest unit of
Foreign exchange market and othersfinancial marketThe advantage of comparison, that is, the remarkable feature of the foreign exchange market is that the foreign exchange market is 24-hour,Fund liquidityExtremely high, almost no insider and marketManipulation behaviorEtc.And stocksfutures marketWait, there are certainOpening time, unable to do 24 hoursContinuous transactionThe market is also relatively small and easy to be manipulatedtransaction cost Relatively very cheap.The biggest difference between the foreign exchange market and the stock market is that the foreign exchange market has the same profit opportunities whether in a bear market or a bull market, buyers or sellers.The stock market is usually regarded as a buyer's market, because under the relevant legal framework, the market does not encourage short selling. However, since the way of buying and selling foreign exchange involves both buying and selling, there is no structural problem of first buy or first sell.In other words, no matter the market trend is up or down, foreign exchange investors have equal opportunities to make profits.
Compared with the futures market, the foreign exchange marketImmediacyandConvenienceGreatly improved, each transaction in the futures market has different transaction dates, different prices or different contract contents.It often takes half an hour for a futures transaction to be concludedTransaction priceThere must be a long way to go.Although there areElectronic transactionsHowever, the transaction of the market order is still quite unstable.While foreign exchange can provide stable quotation and real-time transaction, investors can use real-time market quotation to complete transactions, even in theMarket conditionsAt the busiest time, the transaction cannot be concluded.In the futures market,Transaction priceThe uncertainty is that all orders must be matched through centralized exchanges, which limits the number of traders at the same price, capital flow and total trading amount.And every quotation of the foreign exchange dealer is executed, that is to say, as long as the investor is willing to do so, there will be no price without a deal.
Changes in international and domestic political situations have a great impact on the exchange rate. If the situation is stable, the exchange rate will be stable;When the situation is turbulent, the exchange rate will fall.Areas requiring attention includeinternational relation, party struggle, important government officials, etc
The comprehensive effect of various aspects of a country's economy is good or bad, which affects the countryCurrency exchange rateThe most direct and major factor.The economic growth levelBalance of paymentsSituation, inflation levelInterest rate levelAnd so on.
Military developments:
War, local conflict, etc. will cause insecurity in a certain region, and the exchange rate of relevant regions and vulnerable currencies willnegative effect, while the currency andTraditional hedging currencyThe exchange rate is favorable.
Policies of the government and central bank:
Governmentfiscal policy、Foreign exchange policyAnd the central bankmonetary policyIt plays a very important and sometimes decisive role in the exchange rate.If the government announces to devalue or appreciate the currency of the country;The rise and fall of the central bank's interest rateMarket interventionEtc.
Foreign exchange market participantsThe trend of the exchange rate is seriously affected by the psychological expectations of.The market tends to form its own views on the appreciation or depreciation of a currency. When a certain consensus is reached, the exchange rate will change within a certain period of time. At this time, the exchange rate may rise and fallFundamental planeCompletely disengaged or ineffective central bank intervention.
With financeGlobalization processThe acceleration ofInternational hot moneyThese funds are sometimes controlled by some speculative institutions due to theira turnoverIt is very huge and often adopts hedging methods, which sometimes has a profound impact on the exchange rate trend.asQuantum FundResist sterling and Taizhu, and make their exchange rates depreciate significantly in a short period of time.
Emergency:
Some major emergencies will have an impact on market psychology, which will change the exchange rateLong term changesImpact.For example, the 911 incident caused a sharp depreciation of the US dollar in the short term.
1、 Influence of political factors on exchange rate
As the foreign exchange market mainlyLiquid assetsComposition, daily international marketvolumeMore than $1 trillionBond marketCompared with the political and other factorsReaction degreeIt is much larger. When facing risks, international speculatorsRisk avoidanceIn order to quickly convert from one currency to another, this will further increase the volatility of the foreign exchange market
Foreign exchange market characteristics
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In recent years, the reason why the foreign exchange market is loved by more and more people and becomes the new favorite of international investors is closely related to the characteristics of the foreign exchange market itself.The main characteristics of the foreign exchange market are:
1. Market without market
Europe, etcthe WestThe financial industry ofTraderNetwork.Stocks are bought and sold through exchanges.
imageNew York stock exchange 、London Stock Exchange、Tokyo Stock Exchange, which are the main trading places for stocks in the United States, Britain and JapanFinancial productsIts quotation, trading time and settlement procedures have been uniformly stipulated, and a trade association has been established and a trade code has been formulated.
Investors buy and sell the commodities they need through brokerage companies, which is called "where there is market, there is market".While foreign exchange trading is conducted through a network of dealers without a unified market operation, unlike stock trading, it has a centralized and unified location.However, the network of foreign exchange trading is global, and has formed an unorganized organization. The market is connected by the recognized way and advanced information system, and the traders do not have any organizationMembershipHowever, it must be trusted and recognized by the industry.
This kind of foreign exchange trading market without a unified venue is called "market without market".On average, the global foreign exchange market trades trillions of dollars every day.Such a huge amount of money is in such a place where there is neither a centralized place nor a central placeClearing systemAnd complete liquidation and transfer without government supervision.
2. Cyclic operation
Due to thegeographical positionDifferent,AsiaMarketEuropean market、AmericaDue to the time difference, the market has become a global foreign exchange market that operates continuously 24 hours a day.8:30 a.m. (New York time shall prevail) New York market opens at 9:30 a.mChicagoThe market opened at 10:30San FranciscoThe market opened at 18:30 in Sydney, 19:30 in Tokyo, 20:30 in Hong Kong and Singapore, 2:30 in Frankfurt and 3:30 in London.
In such a round the clock operation, the foreign exchange market has become a day and night market. Only Saturday, Sunday and major festivals in various countries can close the foreign exchange market.This continuous operation provides investors with the ideal of no time and space obstaclesInvestment site, investors can find the best time to trade.
For example, if an investor buys yen on the New York market in the morning, the yen rises after the opening of the Hong Kong market in the evening, and the investor sells in the Hong Kong market, no matter where he is, he can participate in trading in any market at any time.Therefore, the foreign exchange market can be said to be a market without time and space barriers.
In the stock market, if a stock or the whole stock market rises or falls, then the value of a stock or the whole stock marketstock valueIt will also rise or fall, such as JapanNippon SteelOfStock priceFrom 800 yen to 400 yen, the value of all shares of Nippon Steel also decreased by half.
Foreign exchange market trend in 2013
According to Dow Jones (DJ), investment banks have predicted the trend of foreign exchange market in 2013.Compared with previous years, the common expectations and transaction suggestions of investment banks have decreased.This just highlights the competition among major central banks to take measures to stimulate the economy and thus lead toHome CurrencyIn the case of weakness, the difficulty of forecasting the foreign exchange market has increased significantly.
The so-called ugly contest in the foreign exchange market is notNew things, which is the rearLehman BrothersA feature of the (Lehman) era also makes foreign exchangeReturn on investmentBecomes bad.However, as interest rates around the world move towards extremely low levels (even negative in some cases),analystThe outlook for the dollar and other major currencies is very different.
Continued response at the European Central Bank (ECB)euroAt the time of the regional crisis, Japan tried to reverse the 20 year olddeflationThe situation,Federal Reserve(Fed)domestic marketInject liquidity and continuously launchQE3andQE4Therefore, the global foreign exchange market may experience more range fluctuations in 2013.However, eventually there will be currency winsExchange rate war。
The following are some of the most important foreign exchange trading banks' main views on the trend of the foreign exchange market:
Since there is almost no room for major central banks to introduce differentiated policies, major currencies may continue to fluctuate in 2013.The Bank of Japan (BOJ) may be an exception, as the incoming new government intends to take more powerful monetary easing measures after winning the general election held this month.Credit Suisse said that even so, the Bank of Japan will strive toJapanese yenGo soft.Credit Suisse also pointed out that due todebt crisis Reburning,euroThe trend will also fluctuate sharply again, and may fall to $1.25 by the end of 2013.
The bank said that the yen will be weak in 2013, and the dollar is expected to rise to 92 yen by the end of next year.Morgan Stanley said that as the Bank of Japan may take a more aggressive easing stance, this should cause the yen to weaken.The bank also expectsAUDIt will fall sharply next year.The outflow of more overseas investment funds may lead to the decline of the Australian dollar, which is accompanied byAustralian economyWeaker, domestic interest rates fell.
The bank believes that the US dollar will not rebound significantly next year, unless the possibility of the first interest rate increase appears in the United States.JusteuroFor EuropeThe central bank cut interest ratesThe prospect of, the continued weakness of the economy and the suppression of inflationary pressures mean that investors may be inclined to sell euros and buy high-yield currencies such as the Australian dollar and the New Zealand dollar.However, the fluctuation range of Euro/USD is expected to be 10 cents, ranging from 1.25 to 1.35.If the concern about the euro area intensifies, the exchange rate may go down to the low end of the range, but if the concern eases, the exchange rate may go up to the high end of the range.CitiIt is also expected that next yearJapanese yenWill fall, but the Fed'sInterest rate policyThis means that the yen will fall as low as 85 yen to 1 dollar.
As American policymakers avoid fallingFiscal cliff (Automatic increase of taxes and automatic reduction of spending) An agreement was reached, and the Federal Reserve continued to loosen monetary policy. It is expected that the dollar will continue to decline next year.The bank pointed out that the low interest rate of the United States will also help prevent the yen from continuing to weaken. It is expected that the dollar will fall to 75 yen by the end of next year.The bank also said that,China's economyImproved prospects for the Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar andCad etc.Bulk commoditiesRelevant currency composition is favorable.
The US dollar may become the best performing major currency in 2013.Why?First, it is expected that next yearAmerican economyWill increase by 2.3%, whileeuroDistrict, UK andJapanese economyIt may stagnate, and at best it will only grow weakly.In addition, the agency believes that the latest round of the Federal ReserveLoose monetary policyIt has been basically digested by the financial market. Unlike the European Central Bank, the Bank of England (BOE) and the Bank of Japan, these central banks are expected to further expand their asset purchases next year.UBSIt is expected that by the end of 2013, the euro/dollar will fall from about 1.30 at present to 1.20/Japanese yenWill fall to 85.
The yen will again outperform other currencies in 2013.The agency said that even if the Bank of Japan implemented more loose monetary policy, the yen would not be affected, as long as Japan remainedcurrent accountSurplus;The agency's "default" expectation is the appreciation of the yen, which is contrary to the general expectation of the market.The bank expects that the dollar/yen will fall to 72 by next year, and it is expected that by the second half of 2013euro/The upward momentum of the US dollar will be reversed. The target is 1.24.But the bankSimultaneously, the medium and long term prospects are still uncertain, subject to uncertainty and multiplePolitical risksinfluence.
In 2013, it was recommended to sell pounds and buy dollars.British economyThe rebalancing ofDouble deficitIt also seems thatHedge currencyLow position poses a major challenge.The agency recommends selling sterling and buying dollars. It is estimated that the target of sterling/dollar is 1.5050 dollars.
It seems that the trading and investment environment will not improve in 2013, especially if foreign exchangeInvestment ManagerWe insist on the so-calledYen carry trade .Whereas developedEconomiesandEmerging economiesInterest rates are so low, and many central banks oppose the strengthening of the local currency. If financing arbitrage transactions continue to prevail, the foreign exchange marketRate of returnThe maximum is only 2%.
From the middle of 2013, the foreign exchange market is expected to enter a long-term upward trend of the US dollar.Both the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank will hold their ground for a long time, but the latter will faceeconomic problemLarger.The agency expects to reach the end of next yeareuro/The dollar will fall to 1.19.
Given the major central banksMaterial willFurther relax the policy, and the foreign exchange market has formed a very suitable environment for financing arbitrage transactions.The current question is only the right oneArbitrage currency, whether in dollars orJapanese yenAsFinancing currency, the bank said that in this context, Europe in 2013emerging marketCurrency should perform well, Russia is preferredroublePolandZlotyandHungarian forint。
The love of dollars is more thaneuroAnd the yen, because the Federal Reserve may be able to start monetary policy normalization earlier than the European and Japanese central banks.Therefore, the bank predicted that the euro would fall to $1.23 in 2013, and believed that there was considerable room for the dollar/yen to rise, which might exceed 90%.
Barclays Capital:
yesJapanese yenThe situation has changed.The newly formed Japanese government may give the central bank a greater mission to formulate higherInflation target, which will lead to the rise of USD/JPY to 88 in the next six months.The agency also said that valuation should be paid attention to, because this factor may become the driving force of the market;The valuation distortion caused by abnormal conditions should be corrected in 2013, which means that currencies such as the Australian dollar are vulnerable.
At the end of March 2013, the balance of China's foreign exchange reserves was $3.44 trillion,US TreasuryLast night, it was announced that as of the end of February 2013US TreasuriesStatus.The inflow of capital into China has increased.The second largest in the United StatesCreditor countryJapan reduced its holdings of US Treasuries by 6.8 billion dollars in February, and the balance of the country's foreign exchange reserves was 3.44 trillion dollars. As of the end of February, China's accumulated holdings of US Treasuries totaled 1222.9 billion dollars, accounting for 21.6% of the total US bonds held by countries, still ranking first.China's holdings of US Treasuries, whether in terms of net increase or relative proportion of China's holdings of foreign exchange assets, may decline.USD 1214.2 billion in excess of holdings（Correction valueUS $50.3 billion),Ring ratioIncreased holdings by US $8.7 billion.
In February, China will increase its holdings of US Treasuries in absolute terms, which is similar toForeign exchange appropriationAnd the increase of foreign exchange reservespositive correlationRelationship.According to the revised data of the US Treasury Department, China's net increase in its holdings of US treasury bonds in 2012 was US $68.5 billionValue addedUnder the goal of "National Debt", US government bonds are indispensable assets. At least in today's financial market, there is no asset that can completely replace US government bonds.
People's Bank of ChinaThe latest release of the first quarter of 2013Financial statisticsdata displayBy the end of March 2013, the growth rate was 5.95%.From USD 1103.9 billion at the end of January to USD 1097.1 billion;However, the total volume remained above the trillion threshold for 17 consecutive months.Compared with the end of 2012, it increased by 130 billion US dollars.With the moderate recovery of the peripheral economy, China's exports have stabilized and reboundedRisk appetiteThe rise of, the reasonable increase of China's foreign exchange assets, part of which is allocated to US Treasuries.
Nevertheless, from the perspective of long-term structural factors, China may shift from a net exporter toNet importsThe transformation of the country means that the accumulation of foreign exchange assets will slow down significantly.The distribution of foreign exchange assets in China is mainly officially held.The government's risk appetite is relatively low, so a higher proportion of foreign exchange assets are allocated to relatively safe US treasury bonds.Later, it will be collected by the peopleForeign exchange investmentThe proportion of US debt may decline.
With the continuous increase of China's foreign exchange reserves, compared with the bonds of other European countries, China purchased the bonds of the United Statesnational debtIt is a better choice to "digest" the new foreign exchange reserves.AndRMBThe pressure of continuous appreciation still exists. By purchasing US bonds, the stability ofRMB rateIt also has certain benefits.
Of course, there is a process of hiding and converging with the people, even under the official leading modeDiversified investment, the need to relatively balance risks.Under the global super loose monetary policy, the United StatesTreasury bond yieldIs significantly depressed.IfEconomic recoveryImprovement, gradual withdrawal of loose monetary policy, capital marketDebt to equity swapOnce the "big transfer" of US Treasury bonds occurs, there will be an upward risk in the yield of US Treasury bonds.
China's foreign exchange reservestrend chart(End of March 2013)
foreign exchange market
Stable profit method
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First of all, keep the development thinking. The foreign exchange market is constantly changing, which means you must adjust from time to timeTransaction plan, keep pace with the times.Don't be afraid to act like a rookie in the foreign exchange market - those so-calledExpertsIt also needs continuous improvement.Many times, the performance of the market will prove that your current plan is wrong.For example, if you areConcussive cityObstinately adopt the trendtrading system , then you will be defeated.Even if you think you are a master, don't go too far in pursuing the so-called "always right".Only in this way can you clearly respond to market changes and make appropriate adjustments to the trading plan as needed.
Secondly, set goals reasonably. Setting goals correctly can not only show your expectations, but also narrow the gap between ideal and reality.If you set unrealistic goals - such as focusing on the success of each transaction, you may reap a lot of disappointment and lead to a series of vicious cycles such as improper decision-making.After setting a goal, you will begin to measure how far away you are from achieving this goal.The question is, are you ready and willing to pay the price for achieving this goal?If the answer is no, you should correct yourexpected value。At the same time, don't underestimate yourself.Those who succeedTraderThey don't care too much about failure - they often set some difficult but accessible goals and use them as their motivation to move forward.Of course, successful traders will not bow to the "fear of success", because success is only part of their plans.
As long as investors do well in the above two points, they will not be far away from foreign exchange earnings.
Transaction record
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In October 2023, a total of 16.24 trillion yuan (equivalent to 2.26 trillion US dollars) was traded in China's foreign exchange market (excluding foreign currency to market, the same below).Among them, RMB 2.71 trillion (equivalent to USD 0.38 trillion) was transacted in the bank to customer market, and RMB 13.53 trillion (equivalent to USD 1.88 trillion) was transacted in the inter-bank market;The spot market had a cumulative turnover of 4.08 trillion yuan (equivalent to US $0.57 trillion), and the derivatives market had a cumulative turnover of 12.16 trillion yuan (equivalent to US $1.69 trillion).
From January to October 2023, the accumulated turnover in China's foreign exchange market is 209.15 trillion yuan (equivalent to US $29.76 trillion).[2]
On January 26, 2024, the statistics of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange showed that in December 2023, China's foreign exchange market (excluding foreign currency to market, the same below) totaled 20.54 trillion yuan (equivalent to 2.89 trillion dollars).Among them, RMB 3.36 trillion (equivalent to US $0.47 trillion) was transacted in the bank to customer market, and RMB 17.18 trillion (equivalent to US $2.42 trillion) was transacted in the inter-bank market;The accumulative turnover in the spot market is 7.07 trillion yuan (equivalent to US $1.00 trillion), and the accumulative turnover in the derivatives market is 13.47 trillion yuan (equivalent to 19000 yuanUS $100 million).[3]
From January to December 2023, the accumulated turnover in China's foreign exchange market is 252.58 trillion yuan (equivalent to 35.85Trillion dollars).[3]
