The rapid and sharp rise in agricultural product prices has become an important factor in driving CPI upward.Studying the price trend of agricultural products is of great significance for controlling inflation and maintaining sustained and healthy economic development.Only by clarifying the mechanism and link of the price trend of agricultural products can we reasonably control the price level of agricultural products, avoid artificially suppressing the reasonable price rise of agricultural products and attacking the enthusiasm of agricultural production.
Trend extension method is a common method of market forecasting.
According to the continuous data of market development, it seeks the long-term trend change law between market development and time, finds the functional expression of the long-term change trend growth law with appropriate methods, and predicts the possible level of market development in the future.
also calledTrend extrapolation。 It is a common forecasting method, such as the growth law of commodity sales (or demand), the development and upgrading process of durable products, etc., which can be described and forecasted by its trend growth line.
The trend research method studies the long-term relationship between the development of things and time.
In the market forecastEconomic indicatorsThe common types of long-term trend change growth lines in the time series compiled from historical data are straight line, quadratic curve, cubic curve, exponential curve, modified exponential curve and S curve, which correspond to different types of trend extension methods.
