Short mechanism

Operating mechanism

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Short selling mechanism is a kind of operation mechanism closely linked with long selling, which means that the investors are stock market Or the operation methods adopted to protect their own interests and take advantage of opportunities to make profits in the future direction (including short term and medium and long term) of certain individual stocks, as well as the sum of relevant systems.

Chinese name: Short mechanism
Overview: Go long Coordinated development with short selling mechanism

Introduction: When the price is about to fall, a deposit of 10% shall be paid in advance
Example: Sell first and buy later

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survey

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stock market The smooth operation of the long and short mechanism depends on the coordinated development of China Stock market risk One of the important reasons for the increasing accumulation is that the short mechanism corresponding to the long mechanism is not perfect and is at an obvious disadvantage. introduce Credit transaction Stock index futures trading to strengthen the short mechanism is both market development The need of Basic conditions 。

concept

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If you think the price will fall, you can pay 10% in advance Deposit The goods borrowed from a third person are sold, and when the position is closed, they are bought back to the third person, and the deposit paid is recovered.

Example

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Short selling simply means selling before buying when there is no goods. Example You can see that 10 yuan of A shares will fall to 8 yuan in a certain period of time, but you do not hold A shares. At this time, you can borrow a certain amount of A shares from the holders of A shares, and sign an agreement to return these borrowed shares to the original holders in a certain period of time. Suppose you borrow 100 shares of A shares and sell them at the price of 10 yuan, Get 1000 yuan in cash, such as Specified time If the shares really fell to 8 yuan, you would buy 100 shares of A shares at 8 yuan, spend 800 yuan, and return the 100 shares to the original holder, the original holder Number of shares That hasn't changed, and you earned 200 yuan in cash. Currently launched in China Stock index futures It is also a short mechanism. Short selling mechanism not only refers to short selling of stocks, but also includes short selling of indexes. ( China Merchants Securities pudong avenue Business Department)

effect

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Liquidity

It is conducive to investors' initiative Risk avoidance and Market liquidity Increase of

Under the market condition that short selling is not allowed, when an investor expects the stock price to fall, his only rational choice is to sell the corresponding stock, Empty position Wait. The existence of short mechanism can make stock market Like the futures market, on the one hand, investors can use the short mechanism to Hedging To resolve investment risk , increase the security of funds; On the other hand, investors can also "take the initiative" to obtain the benefits that may be brought by the decline of stock prices. In the market where there is no short selling mechanism, if investors want to make profits, they must constantly buy low and sell high to push up stock market index , resulting in the continuous accumulation of risks in the stock market. The whole market will inevitably fall sharply after an irrational rise, which will cause most investors to hang up and make the original investment force unable to move, Trading volume The market slumped, and only by the entry of new external capital can the market become active again. This shows that in the case of short selling without profit, the market can hardly rely on its own original strength to maintain sustained activity and vitality.

Smooth operation

It is conducive to maintaining China stock market Smooth operation of market risk

You can only do long one-sided market On the other hand, it is impossible to form a virtuous circle relationship between long and short, resulting in the continuous accumulation of risks in the stock market. Specifically, the following trends tend to push up in one direction stock market index First, when the stock market is in a bull market, it is often accompanied by an increase in popularity Stock trading price The increase of trading volume and the continuous enlargement of trading volume are beneficial to securities companies and others agency Increase income, therefore, they tend to induce investors to actively long; Secondly, from the perspective of listed companies, they also tend to guide investors to go long, because the rise of their stock prices can improve their market image on the one hand, and on the other hand, help them in the rights issue and Additional shares To raise more funds at higher prices; Third, the management also tends to encourage long to some extent, because the rise of the stock index is often considered as national economy The positive development of the stock market wealth effect It can also play a certain role in promoting economic development. Moreover, the prosperity of the stock market also benefits more state-owned enterprises Listing financing 。

It can be seen that in the market without short selling mechanism, it is difficult for the stock market to reach its own balance, and the situation of sudden rise and fall often occurs. And the introduction of short selling mechanism, when the stock price rises too far away from its practical value When, short position They will look for opportunities for short selling. Both parties It is difficult to form a one-sided situation by constantly seeking the market price difference, which makes the stock price often run around its value. It is for this reason that the short mechanism is maturing stock market It is often regarded as a benign and healthy market ensure 。

Financing efficiency

It is conducive to improving China's stock market Of Financing efficiency , guide rational investment in the market

Due to lack of Risk avoidance Mechanism, investors can only use Insider information Etc day trade In order to achieve the purpose of profit, which caused irrational fluctuations in the stock price. With the short mechanism, investors not only have new operating tools, but also need to collect various information when trading comprehensive analysis This is conducive to improving the transparency of the stock spot market and guiding investors in the stock market to trade rationally. In mature markets, short sellers are often able to analyze the market more rationally, find and help correct violations in the market economic law act. Short sellers pay more attention to investigating the financial operation of suspicious companies, and their efforts make it easier to expose any conspiracy to cheat investors. In addition, when the development prospect of a certain field is not optimistic or a listed company management model In case of problems, the market will adjust the stock price Capital transfer To more promising fields or companies, the market operation of short sellers accelerates the process of capital transfer, thus improving the capital market Efficiency.

Securities regulation

advantageous to Securities market supervision Indirectness, flexibility and scientization of

Chinese Securities regulation The department has long been overemphasized administrative means Managing the securities market and securities companies operating activities This is necessary at the initial stage of market establishment, but due to Administrative methods Inevitably artificial and simple and stiff characteristics often lead to the deformation of the final actual effect, or although there are short-term immediate effects, there are very obvious side effects left in the long run, leading to the fact that China's stock market is still called "policy market, news market" after more than 10 years of development.

Change

thus A-share Whether it has turned to decline. Although there is a short-term decline to adjust demand stock market index It is unlikely to enter a new round of sharp decline. There are two reasons: first, from the macro perspective Policy Look, the market is still looking forward to launching urbanization practice before and after the "two sessions" in March, and many investors are still China's economy Continue to rebound with illusions; Second, from the perspective of securities market policies, Refinancing It has not been officially launched, and the short selling mechanism still lacks the most important and powerful link.^[1]

If you push the switch Securities lending ， China A-share There will be a fundamental change in the design of the system, that is, from the original unilateral long market to the short market. If the introduction of stock index futures and short selling has balanced the power of short selling and long selling in the system, then the introduction of refinancing will enable short selling to gain absolute advantage , because it can make the main force of the market - insurance, funds and securities companies' stocks - more than a trillion yuan RMB To lend out a large amount of money, then sell it and short it at the same time stock market index Futures can make great gains in both stocks and securities.

Since we think it is inevitable that China's economy will continue to dip in the next 2-3 years, if so, it is likely that there will be three levels of short selling in A-shares at the same time in the future: first Economic fundamentals Deterioration; Second, the stock market is refinanced and short sold; Third, stock index Short futures 。 A share has dropped dramatically, which may fall below the imagination of most people. I insist on my previous view that if refinancing is officially launched Shanghai Stock Exchange Index Will fall below 1664 points; If treasury bond futures are launched at the same time, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index will fall below 1300 points.

The sharp drop of A-share and treasury bond futures will sharply shrink the liquidity of China's economy. If hot money At the same time, a large number of outflows have made China suffer from external Geopolitics Crisis, Chinese society And the economy will face serious challenges.

Domestic reasons

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mechanism

The first reason is that the effective establishment and functioning of the short selling mechanism is based on the formation and effective functioning of the market expectation mechanism. Without a reasonable and effective anticipation mechanism, the establishment of the short mechanism may have a destructive or disruptive effect on the normal and effective operation of the market. In order to form an effective expectation mechanism, it needs a series of basic guarantee conditions at the existing institutional level. In particular, it needs institutional constraints to become constants rather than variables of market operation, rather than larger variables and frequent variables. At present China Stock Market The institutional level of is just a huge variable. This adds a huge amount of Uncertainty 。 In the process of institutional adjustment, any small institutional adjustment cannot but affect the trend of stock prices. It is very dangerous to establish a short selling mechanism, because it will make investors lack of institutional protection. To protect the interests of investors, the current problem is not to establish a short selling mechanism, but to promote and complete the institutional reform as a whole as soon as possible. Otherwise, in the name of protecting the interests of investors, the hasty introduction of short selling mechanism will only cause great harm to the interests of investors.

Market transparency

The second reason is that the establishment of short selling mechanism must be based on the transparency of the market. At present, China's stock market information disclosure It's just "gray", a lot of Insider Trading and Related transactions There are many things that involve the vital interests of investors, and investors can not participate in and decide. Circulation shareholders No, Vote by hand Mechanism of listed companies Profit manipulation Asset restructuring has almost no relationship with circulating shareholders. These are the factors that have a great impact on the stock price trend. Under such circumstances, the establishment of short selling mechanism will make circulation shareholders at a loss. information disclosure Opaque In this case, the short mechanism certainly cannot protect the interests of investors.

Transaction mechanism

The third reason is that if the short mechanism becomes a normal and stable trading system, it must be able to prevent market manipulation or stock price manipulation to a considerable extent. However, China's stock market does not have sound institutional constraints on such market manipulation. The aspects, levels and intensity of constraints are still not in place. This provides the market participants, especially institutional investors, with joint or independent manipulate the market or Manipulating stock prices So that the market trend and share price trend can intrinsic value Deviation even serious deviation occurs. If this problem is not solved, the establishment of short selling mechanism will form a huge market negative effect As a result, it is not conducive to the protection of circulating shareholders, especially small and medium-sized investors, but will cause huge institutional damage and interest damage to them.

feasibility

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Developed in China Credit transaction and stock market index Futures trading first encounters legal barriers, such as《 Securities Law 》It is stipulated that stocks can only be in the form of cash and bank capital inflow stock market It is strictly restricted by relevant laws and regulations. The main consideration of restricting credit trading and excluding futures trading by law is to prevent various risks and risk diffusion arising therefrom and maintain financial market The stable operation of. However, as far as the actual operation of the stock market is concerned, non-standard credit transactions have always existed, and often the regulatory authorities have converged when they are strictly investigating and dealing with them. Therefore, it is better to actively channel credit transactions than to block them. In addition, China's capital market and money market Of Coordinated development In view of the reality and future needs of the development of the stock market Stock credit trading On this basis, the conditions for opening stock index futures trading in the future have also been basically mature.

essential information

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risk awareness

The majority of investors risk awareness Constantly strengthen, self control ability It is increasing day by day, which provides a huge market demand for opening stock credit trading and stock index futures trading. At present, quite a few of 61 million investors have experienced the stock market deeply Making money and Money losing Tragicomedy ， Psychological endurance Compared with the previous years, it has improved significantly, and basically has the credit to engage in exchange Required Psychological quality And preliminary operating skills. As for the stock index futures trading based on credit trading market demand Because it can meet a variety of market needs, investors can not only regard it as an investment variety with greater profit opportunities, but also use it to hedge cash transactions.

Identify the market

management layer yes Market supervision The direction of the stock market has been basically clear, and the means are increasingly mature. In the foreseeable period, the risk of the stock market will probably be controlled within the adjustable range, providing a good operating space for the opening of stock credit trading and stock index futures trading. In the near future, the focus of supervision is on the standardized operation of listed companies and the market Manipulation behavior To carry out serious investigation and punishment, Market operation The degree of standardization has significantly improved compared with the past, and the amplitude and frequency of market fluctuations have greatly decreased. In the long run, marketization and the protection of the interests of investors, especially small and medium-sized investors, have become the basic orientation of the management to supervise the market, fundamentally ending the past passive situation of being trapped in the frequent fluctuations of the market due to unclear regulatory ideas, and in the future, the possibility of market turbulence and even reversal caused by regulatory policy changes will be significantly reduced, The rationalization of stock market supervision provides institutional guarantee for the stable operation of the stock market, and provides appropriate conditions for the smooth conduct of credit trading and stock index futures trading market environment 。

Stable environment

futures market The development of stock index futures provides a basic market environment for the opening of stock index futures trading. Stock index futures As financial futures The successful operation of an important variety of, its need to have a relatively perfect futures market as the basis, otherwise it may be failed, even as the past opened treasury bond futures had to close. After years of clean-up and rectification, China's futures industry is now on the track of healthy development. Its accumulated experience and lessons will help the smooth launch and smooth operation of stock index futures.

International integration

China's stock market should International stock market In line with the practice, credit trading and stock index futures trading must be introduced. Especially considering that China has joined the WTO, and the pace of China's financial market, including the stock market, integrating into the world financial market is accelerating, we must also keep pace with the times and launch stock credit as soon as possible transaction mode And stock index futures trading to rapidly improve the institutional investor Administration market risk Ability.

objective

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The purpose of establishing the short mechanism is to provide the market with a Risk hedging Tools. Due to the lack of short selling mechanism in China's stock market“ Unilateral city ”Characteristics, i.e. investors Buying up Not buying down, but buying up in a bull market leads to a stronger bull market, Stock market bubble Appearance; In a bear market, investors' panic selling , making the bear market more bearish and the stock market into depression. The most direct significance of establishing a short mechanism is to Spot market Contrary to the futures market, to avoid the system and Non systematic risk , play the role of hedging; At the same time, the establishment of a short mechanism is conducive to the discovery of Stock price , so that the value of the stock does not deviate from the price excessively, and reduce excessive Speculation It is also conducive to reducing the speed and extent of asset expansion and shrinkage and stabilizing the market. stay Stock index futures Before the launch, when the stock market fell sharply, all market participants suffered heavy losses, and there was no winner in the stock market, which was the defect of no short mechanism.

significance

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brief introduction

The establishment of short selling mechanism not only gives Market supply One Avoiding risks And also provides more opportunities for investors to participate in the market, that is Market entry In a bear market, there is still a profit opportunity for short selling. At present, many large and medium-sized enterprises in China use the short mechanism in the futures market Hedging Thus locking their profits and avoiding market risks. at present Shanghai Futures Exchange The application has been submitted to the State Council for launch Stock index futures The launch of stock index futures will establish a short selling mechanism for China's securities market, thus effectively avoiding the phenomenon of killing more in the past bear market.

Related books

《 Memoirs of Stock Mastery 》Etc

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ETF fund Bonds outright repo Parabolic turn stop short market Stock index futures Stock spot margin trading put warrants warrant financial futures market gold T D trading

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