Dual economy is an economic theory put forward by Burke in 1933.It means that the economy of developing countries is composed of two different economic sectors.One is the traditional sector, the other is the modern sector.
"Dual economy" means that the economy of developing countries is composed of two different economic sectors.One is the traditional sector, the other is the modern sector.
Traditional sector
In self-sufficient agriculture, simple and sporadic commerce and service industries, the labor productivity is very low, and the marginal labor productivity is close to zero or even less than zero,Unskilled laborThe salary ofHidden unemployment, but it contains the vast majority of the labor force of developing countries.
The more technologically advanced industries, mining, construction, modern commerce, service industries, and industries have fewer employed labor forces, higher labor productivity, and higher wages, which are higher than the wages of traditional departments.
Production mode: use reproductionSexual capitalSeeking profits with typical capitalist characteristics
Labor relations
The per capita income level of the traditional sector with a large amount of surplus labor determines the lower limit of the wages of the modern sector. The modern sector absorbs a large number of labor from the traditional sector, but its wage level remains basically unchanged.This is the theoretical core of the model.The profits of the modern sector come from the part of labor output that is greater than the total wages, and continue to transform the profits into capital to expand reproduction until the surplus labor of the traditional sector is fully absorbed.As a result, the modern sector has expanded greatly. Only after the surplus labor has been absorbed can the productivity of the traditional sector be improved, and the income of the traditional sector's employees be improved.
Development theory
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brief introduction
Dual economy
The "dual economy" was first proposed by Booke (1933)IndonesiaIn the study of social economy, the economy and society of the country are divided into traditional sectors and modern sectorsNetherlandsOperated by colonialistscapitalismAt that time, his research was only limited to a simple description of the dual economy.
features
In 1954, Lewis published a famous paper《Unlimited labor supplyEconomic Development under the WTO, which depicts the dual economic characteristics of the emerging countries: under certain conditions,traditional agriculture DepartmentalMarginal productivityIt is zero or negative, and the workers are at the lowest levelWage levelThere is an unlimited supply of labor.Wages in urban industrial sectors are slightly higher than those in agricultural sectors, and this wage level is assumed to remain unchanged.Due to the wage difference between the two sectors, the surplus agricultural population was induced to transfer to the urban industrial sector.The key to economic development is the capitalists' profits, that is, the use of surplus. When capitalists invest,modern industryThe amount of capital in the sector will increase, and more surplus labor will be absorbed from the agricultural sector.When the surplus labor force disappears, the marginal productivity of labor also increases, which is consistent with industry. At this time, the dual structure of the economy also disappears.
meaning
Lewis Model It includes the following two meanings:
1. It is believed thatmodern city The capital accumulation of the department can bringFixed scaleThe growth of labor employment means that there is no labor savingtechnical progressThe faster the capital accumulation is, the more job opportunities will be created;
2. It believes that agriculture is only a negative sector in industrialization, ignoring the importance of agricultural development and the relationship between agricultural development and industrial development.These two points have greatly weakened the practical significance of the model and are also the main basis for later generations to criticize it.
Model improvement
LanisFei JinghanThe Lewis model has been improved. They believe that the agricultural surplus due to the increase of agricultural productivity isAgricultural labor forceInflow into the industrial sectorprecondition。Therefore, they divided the flow process of labor force into three stages: the first stage is similar to Lewis model.In the second stage, the industrial sector absorbs those marginal areaslabour productivityLower than the agricultural sectorAverage yieldLabor force.At this time, the labor force'sMarginal productionOn the positive side, their transfer to the industrial sector led to the shrinkage of the agricultural sector, thus reducing the surplus provided by agriculture to industry,Supply of agricultural productsThe shortage of industrial and agricultural productsTerms of tradeIn turn, it was in favor of agriculture, and wages in the industrial sector began to rise.The third stage is that the economy has completed the transformation of the dual economy, and agriculture has completed the transformation from traditional agriculture to modern agriculture.Agricultural and industrial wages are paid byMarginal productivityDecision, between agriculture and industryLabor mobilityIt all depends on the change of marginal productivity.The improved model more accurately reflects the internal relationship and nature of the dual economic developmentEvolution process。
structural analysis
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Configure Tilt
Resource tiltThe configuration status has been in the process of economic development for a long time, and most countries, especiallydeveloping countryA strategy for industrialization.However, excessive resource tilt will lead to an increase in the dual strength of the economy, which will have a negative impact on economic development.
In the process of economic development after the founding of the People's Republic of China, due to the domestic and international environment, China adopted a specialEconomic development strategyBy means of resource tilt, a completeindustrial system 。However, the excessive resource tilt policy adopted at this stage has becomeChina's economyA serious impediment to development.The resource tilt in China is mainly due to the serious uneven distribution of resources between industry and agriculture, which leads to the serious lag of agricultural development behind industrial development and is difficult to adapt to industrial development.Looking at the history of China's economic development, due to the excessive inclination of resources to industryAgricultural investmentSerious shortage, causinggrain yieldThe sharp decline has caused a nationwide food shortage, and China's economy has fallen into the "Ricardo growth trap" several times.China experienced four national food shortages from 1958 to 1963, 1969 to 1975, 1978 to 1981, and 1987 to 1989, all of which were caused by the excessive inclination of resources to industry.The first two periods are due to the excessive inclination of resources to industry caused by policies, and the latter two periods are due to the transition of resources to industry caused by the entry of the market.
After 1978Chinese AgricultureThe implementation of the household contract responsibility system has greatly improved benefits and reducedagricultural productionThe X-inefficiency in has accelerated the process of division of labor and specialization, and brought into play the productivity potential under the existing resource allocation.Since 1984, agricultureGrowth rateThe main reason for the obvious slowdown is that the potential benefits of the incentive increase generated by the reform have been exhausted.Further growth in agriculture depends onphysical capital 、human capitalInput.But because of fooddemand elasticityIn China, with the gradual reduction of economic development, increasing production does not bring about income increaseland use rightFor a series of reasons, such as instability, farmers' investment in land has been greatly reduced, resulting in further decline of agricultural productivity.Therefore, China's agriculture at this stage should be government led investmentInvestment directionstayRural infrastructure、irrigation systemAnd rural human capital.However, the government's resources have always been heavily skewed towards cities and industries, which is reflected in the fact that urban industrial wages greatly exceed agricultural wages, resulting inReturn on capitalThe sharp decline is difficult to constitute what Lewis called the source of economic growth.For example, agricultural products that once disappeared since the reform and opening upPrice scissors differenceSince the mid-1980s, it has begun to expand again. Take grain as an example: the price of last year was 10019881989price index124.2% and 136.6% of grain in the same periodpurchasing price114.6% and 126.9% reflect that the formation mechanism of China's economic accumulation has once again formed the pattern of "supplementing labor with agriculture".Binary structureIts elimination mainly depends on the support of industry to agriculture after the industry has developed to a certain stage.However, China's economic development process has always been over inclined to industry and cities, resulting in the rigidity of China's economic dual structure.
Population transfer
According to Lewis'sEconomic growth model, the economic development of a country must be accompanied byAgricultural surplusThe transfer of population to non-agricultural areas.Because only the transfer of agricultural surplus population to non-agricultural areas can make agricultural production scale and modernization, and accelerate the transformation from dualism to monism.The transfer of China's agricultural surplus population mainly takes two ways: developmentrural industryAnd promote cross regional mobility (working in cities).
1. Rural industry
The initial form of China's rural industry was commune industrial enterprises, which emerged in the nationwide commune movement in 1958 and reached a climax in 1959.During this period, rural industry mainly served agriculture, providing relatively scarce materials (such as fertilizers, pesticides, cement, etc.) and agricultural machinery services for agriculture, largely relying on local demand, with a strong brand of original industry.The reform in 1978 provided an opportunity for the development of rural industry. Township enterprises that made outstanding contributions to China's economy suddenly emerged at that timeRural labor forceThere was a rapid and large-scale shift.From the 1980s to the mid-1990s, the total number of township enterprises increased from 1.52 million in 1978 to 24.94 million in 1994, and the number of employees increased three times from 28.27 million in 1978 to 120.17 million in 1994.From 1978 to 1994, the rural labor force employed in township enterprises accounted for 9.2% to 27% of the total labor force.However, since 1996, the efficiency of township enterprises has declinedLabor capacityIn 1997, for the first time, there was a negative growth in the number of workers absorbed, and the trend is still strengthening.
On the surface, the decline in the efficiency of township enterprises is due to the shift of the market from shortage toBuyer's market, andAsian financial crisisThe impact on the losses of township enterprises is temporary.However, from a deeper perspective, the losses of township enterprises have their own characteristicsInevitabilityFirstly, the community nature of township enterprises determines their efficiency.Community of enterprisesOwnershipBarriers severely limitproduction factorsAnd the cross regional flow of asset stock, which is not conducive to the production of resources in the broaderSpace configuration, also easy to makeFactor priceDistortion occurs, thus deepening capital in advance.
Labor ratio
Of township enterprisesCapital labor ratioIt gradually increased from 0.1 in 1978 to 4.15 in 1996, as shown in the figure
Year 1978 1981 1985 1987 1989 1994 1995 1996
Capital labor ratio 0.1 0.17 0.28 0.44 0.72 2.25 3.28 4.15
During the development of China's industrialization, obvious“Capital deepening”Trend.The "capital deepening" was carried out in advance, makingChoice of technologyThere has been a deviation in the path of capital replacing labor. The growth of capital continues to be faster than the growth of labor, leading to a decline in the marginal return of capital in advance and a slow growth rate.And there aredata display，coastal areasThe capital labor ratio of township enterprises is higher than that of the mainland, which on the one hand shows that the dual structure of coastal areas is more intense than that of the mainland, and on the other hand shows that the market cannot solve the problem spontaneouslyUrban-rural dual structureQuestion.
Secondly, township enterprisesIndustrial layoutAnd the cityIndustrial layoutConvergence.In the late 1970s and before the mid 1980s, the technology sources of township enterprises were mainly obtained through informal channels of state-owned enterprises. In fact, township enterprises chose to produce labor-intensive products.In the late 1980s, due to the specific property system and demand environment, especially the intervention of local governments, township enterprisesindustrial sector Its entry follows the characteristics of "classical competition", which leads to excessive entry and escalating investment competition.With the reform of state-owned enterprises and facing the market.Township enterprises and state-owned enterprises compete fiercely, and their industrial distribution is strikingly similar: in the late 1980s, the structure of township enterprises in state-owned industriessimilarity coefficient0.7539, including 0.8767 for manufacturing,light industry0.9160, and the textile, food and machinery industries reached 0.9851.
Rural Chinasurplus laborAnother way of transfer is to move across regions, that is, farmers work in cities.Since the reform,market mechanismThe role of labor force allocation is increasingly strengthened, and farmers' free entry into cities is generally heavy and hard work that urban people are unwilling to do, which is mainly distributed in the so-called urban informal sector in Todaro.The urban informal sector is composed of a large number of small-scale production and service activities, which are either individually owned or family owned, using simple and labor-intensive technologies.Due to the limited capacity of urban formal sector to absorb labor, the informal sector has become another major way to absorb urban labor.According to statistics, in the informal sectoreconomic activityThe proportion of labor force in the total urban labor force varies from 20% to 70%, and the income generated is about 40% of the total urban income.However, the informal employment space in Chinese cities is relatively small. In 1998, Chinese citiesInformal sector employmentAccounting for 13% of the total urban employment, far belowdeveloped country50% of,Reform of state-owned enterprises, large-scalelaid-off。And the re employment of laid-off workers is also mainly concentrated in the urban informal sector, which forms a strong competition with farmers.cityLabor qualityIt is generally higher than that in rural areas. In addition, in the 21st century, China still maintains the pattern of urban-rural separationHousehold registration systemDiscriminatory labor in the urban sectorEmployment system、system of educationas well associal security system For farmersfree flow There are certain restrictions. These factors make it more difficult for farmers to work in cities.
The two main ways of the transfer of China's agricultural surplus population mentioned above are blocked, and the transfer of agricultural surplus population has a certain part-time nature, that is to say, some of the transferred agricultural surplus population is not completely separated from the landdependenceStill strong.In case of any accident, they can return to the land, which has caused instability in the transfer of agricultural surplus population.
Generally speaking, industrialization is accompanied by urbanization. But China'sUrbanization levelSerious lag andIndustrialization level。China in 1998urban population379.24 million people,Urbanization rate30.4%, the world average is 45%, and 75% in developed countries. It can be seen that China's urbanization level is far below the world average.The low level of urbanization can not realize the gathering of production factors in cities, and can not play a roleEconomies of scaleandAgglomeration economyIn particular, it restricts the development of the tertiary industry.In 2000, the proportion of the world's tertiary industry in CDP was about 50%, while that of China was only 32%. The development of the tertiary industry in China was obviously backward.The tertiary industry is mainlyLabor intensive industryThe ability to absorb labor is strong, and the growth of a large number of service industries in the tertiary industry will stimulateeconomic growthRise to a higher levelStrong action, its pairnational economyThe elasticity of growth reached 1.78.The low level of urbanization in China, on the one hand, restricts the economic development, on the other hand, further strengthens the rigidity of the dual structure.
Logical measure
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Historical logic
Dual economy
From the perspective of the world's industrialization process, there are three forms of industrialization: (1) the industrialization model of natural industrial growth, such as Britain and the United States.The binary formed in this systemeconomic form Unstable. With the spontaneous development of the economy, the dual form will disappear automatically, and the economy will soon resume integration.(2) Colonial and imported industrialization mode.High foreign capital inflowproductivityIndustry has promoted the development of industry, but the vast majority of rural areas are still poor and backward, such as Brazil.Because industrialization has not established a hugedomestic marketThe rural poor flooded into the cities, and agriculture further declined,Urban-rural dual structureTransform into urban dualization.(3) Industrialization mode with high government involvement.In this mode, the development of agriculture and industry, urban and rural economy all show two unrelated processes, and the elements of market mechanism realization between the twoConversion valueLow.Agriculture began as a deprived industry, and then became a rescued industry. Agriculture has always been in the "bottleneck" sector of the economy.It has formed a dual economy with advanced agricultural development and lagging developmenteconomic systemOnce formed, it has certain rigidity.China's industrialization before the implementation of the market economy took this form, accompanied by a rigidDual economic structure。
In the early stage of industrialization, the proportion of the industrial sector was small, and it was far from enough to rely solely on the accumulation of the industrial sector itself to raise development funds.Therefore, the large-scale agricultural sector must becomecapital accumulation There are two ways to transfer capital from the agricultural sector to the industrial sector:MarketabilityResource transfer;The other is policy based resource transfer.The former depends onFinancial developmentAnd the origin and behavior of business groups in the region;The latter mainly adopts netDirect tax, NetIndirect taxAnd other means.And there is a two-dimensional relationship between the two: on the one hand, when commercial groups invest in industry out of their own motives, the necessity of policy resource transfer is greatly reduced; on the other hand, policy resource transfer affects market resource transfer.In the initial stage of industrialization, China mainly resorted to the transfer of policy resources because it did not have the conditions for market resource transfer.China's policy shift is of great significanceScissors differencePrice as a means, collectivization of agriculture as a system to support success.In the private economy, farmers'personal incomeAnd consumption flow can not be controlled, which mainly depends on the individual farmerspreferenceIn this case, resource transfer is not easy to succeed.Through collectivization, the agricultural sector workers can only get a living cost, which inhibits the consumption of farmers.And this kind of transfer is completed before workers get their income, which is hidden and mandatory. Therefore, this kind of transfer is relatively easy to succeed.The agricultural surplus has been further transferred by means of unified purchase and marketing, overvaluation of exchange rate, price scissors, etc., which has established a complete industrial system for China in a very short period of time, especially the rapid development of the asset industry in the short term.China's dualityeconomic structureIt was initially formed under the influence of policies.The different status of urban and rural economic development has led to the expansion of urban-rural income gap. In order to maintain the stability of urban industry, policy based isolation of urban-rural flows has further strengthened the secondary economic structure.
structural strength
Comparative labor productivity, also known as relativenational income, refers to the output value of a departmenttotal output valueThe ratio between the labor force in this sector and the total labor force.It reflects the proportion of income generated by 1% of the labor force in this sector, and can be used as a measure of dual economy.The higher the relative income proportion of a department, the lower the relative labor proportion, and the higher the comparative labor productivity;The greater the difference between the comparative labor productivity of the two sectors in the economy, the stronger the duality.The international comparison of comparative productivity shows that the agricultural comparative labor productivity is lower than 1, and the non-agricultural comparative labor productivity is higher than 1;BothChange trendYes, in the stage of the intensification of the dual structure, the agricultural comparative productivity gradually decreased, and the non-agricultural productivity gradually increased;After the dualistic contrast reaches the highest point, the agricultural comparative labor productivity turns to gradually increase, approaching 1 from the direction of low and 1, and the non-agricultural ones are getting lower and lower, approaching 1 from the direction of higher than 1.We can well reflect the intensity of duality by comparing the comparative labor productivity of agriculture and non-agriculture.obviously,Binary contrast coefficientThe smaller the difference between the two departments, the stronger the duality.TheoreticalMaximumIt is 100, usually lower than 100. The binary contrast coefficient of developing countries is generally 31-45, while that of developed countries is generally 52-86.
Contrast coefficient
As shown in the figure below, China's agricultural and non-agricultural comparative labor productivity and binary comparison coefficient in some years from 1957 to 1999 are listed.
Year agricultural comparative labor productivity Non agricultural comparative labor productivity binary comparison coefficient
The duality of China reached the maximum in 1970, because the binary contrast coefficient was the lowest at that time, 16%;After the reform, the rise of the coefficient means that the dual structure has been eased and improved, but the speed of improvement is slow, and there is a trend of re opening.All this shows that the dual structure of China's economy is not always moving towards the direction of unification, and has certain rigidity.
conclusion
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Through the analysis of this paper, China's dual economy is subject to many constraints along the path of Lewis's economic development model, and China's economic unification cannot proceed smoothly according to its path, thus causing China toDual economic structurerigidity.The reinforcement of dual rigidity has not only caused serious obstacles to China's industrialization process, but also caused certain pressure on social stability.Therefore, we should attach great importance to the rigidity of China's dual economic structure.
becausemarket economyThe dual economic structure cannot be eliminated automatically, so the government should play a leading role in this process.In future policies, attention should be paid to the following points: industry should support the development of agriculture;Accelerating the process of urbanization;Actively expand the cityInformal employmentSpace;Effectively transform the identity of farmers so that they can truly participate in the process of economic development and share the fruits of economic development.
9、Luwen: Development of Property Right System Reform of Township Enterprises, published at《China's rural economy》Issue 11, 1997.
10. Wang Guangwei: "Realistic thinking of Lewis' dual economic structure model", published in the Graduate Forum, doctoral candidate in 1989Special number。
Related books
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Research on Dual Economy and China's Financial Crisis Prevention
With the development of social economySupply and demandIn terms of time and space, money is separated from the real economyCommodity tradingMove independently outside.This change of currency has planted an explosion in modern societyfinancial crisisHidden trouble.The outbreak of the financial crisis has brought huge losses to society.human societyIn the process of development, we have constantly explored measures to prevent financial crisis, and formed a relatively complete system.
This book is divided into six chapters. Chapter 1 compares the dual economy with the economic differences between the east and west of China.Chapter 2Analytical researchCurrentlyRepresentativenessSeveral ofEconomic crisis theory。Chapter 3 is the financial crisis in dual economy countriesEmpirical analysis。Chapter 4 is about dual economy countriesCauses of financial crisisMechanism analysis, focusing on the causes of financial crisis in dual economy countries.Chapter 5 is the financial crisis in dual economy countriesConduction mechanismResearch.Chapter 6 is about China's countermeasures against financial crisis.This book insists on the combination of theory and practice in the research. It not only summarizes and summarizes the typical cases, but also carries out the research with the actual situation in Chinacomparative study And put forward beneficial theoretical basis for China to effectively prevent financial crisis.
