Article | Li Chuan
Who is the hardest hit group in this wave of house price decline?
Since 2022, house prices in second and third tier cities have been declining.
Quietly and unconsciously, two years have passed. Now, the house prices in most cities and counties have dropped by 20% to 30% from the highest point three or four years ago.
In some cities, they even cut their own pockets. In the community where I live, the highest price was 19000 yuan. Now it is about 12000 yuan. As a result, it dropped by 40%, as did several surrounding communities.
Back to the main topic: Who is the hardest hit group after a wave of house price decline?
It may be a group of people born from 1980 to 1995.
My logic is:
In the past three decades, China's housing prices have been rising as a whole. However, this rise is cyclical. In normal years, it rises a little every year, but when it encounters a cycle, it will rise sharply. Just like the big bull market of the stock market.
The latest surge is from the end of 2016 to 2017. This wave has almost doubled overall.
In other words, as long as you buy a house after 2017, your house is now in a negative state. If you bought a house in 2019 or 2020, it will be at the highest point. Now the probability is extremely high, with a loss of 20-30%.
So what does this have to do with the group born in 1980-1995?
Because people born in 1980 will be 37 years old by 2017. The person born in 1995 is just 22 years old.
At that time, they were the main force of the demand for improvement. Most of them bought houses for their own use, and few bought houses for speculation.
At present, the largest group of people is about 45 years old, and the youngest group is about 30 years old. This is the real backbone, a group with the greatest pressure, including the old and the young.
Everyone who has ever worked in the workplace knows that this group is the most hardworking, overtime and social group.
They are too old to move because they are discriminated against in re employment. Children and old people in their families will spend money everywhere when they buy a house and a car. It doesn't matter if they are idle for two or three months. If they lose their job for half a year, the capital chain will be broken.
If it was bought before 2017, the current decline in house prices is tolerable because of the low cost of ownership.
However, after 2017, most of them had emptied six wallets, with loans ranging from 700000 yuan to 800000 yuan and more than two or three million yuan.
If house prices have been rising, expectations are bullish and confidence is sufficient. The decline of house prices is actually quite painful.
It is also very interesting that this group has a special feature.
Maybe because he is still in his prime of life, he is resistant to penis and obedient, so many hardships are silently endured and suppressed in his heart.
Their psychological consolation is that I bought a house for my own use, not for investment, and the ups and downs have nothing to do with me. Therefore, in social groups, it is rare to see them complain about the impact of falling house prices on themselves.
I feel that the housing price has now reached a very delicate stage.
On the one hand, the government is constantly relaxing policies and trying to stabilize housing prices. On the other hand, the bearish sentiment of the market is still very serious. Even if you have money and just need it, you are hesitant to buy a house now.
How can we fall in the future? Personally, I think it is reasonable to fall to the price in 2016 at least. At that time, the house will truly return to the residential property, and the house price will be consistent with the income of ordinary people.
If the situation really develops in this direction, the group that bought houses after 2017, from 1980 to 1995, will be more impacted.
I want to ask you, is my analysis of this group reasonable? Are there people of this age around you who are buying houses at the peak of the house price? What do they think now? Welcome to leave a message.
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