The Ministry of Civil Affairs predicted that during the "14th Five Year Plan" period, the country's elderly population will exceed 300 million, and China will move from mild aging to moderate aging. How to take good care of these old people so that they can enjoy their old age is an important part of the "14th Five Year Plan" being formulated.
The impact of aging and childlessness on our society is rapidly emerging. As the parents of the first generation of only children step into the ranks of the elderly, China will usher in a wave of elderly care during the "14th Five Year Plan" period.
From October 26 to 29, the Fifth Plenary Session of the 19th CPC Central Committee was held in Beijing. The meeting will consider the proposal of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on formulating the 14th Five Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development and the Vision for the Year 2035, and draw a blueprint for China's development in the next five years and even 15 years.
The Ministry of Civil Affairs predicted that during the "14th Five Year Plan" period, the country's elderly population will exceed 300 million, and China will move from mild aging to moderate aging. How to take good care of these old people so that they can enjoy their old age is an important part of the "14th Five Year Plan" being formulated.
Zhu Yaoyin, Vice President of China Association for the Aged, said at the opening ceremony of Hangzhou Daqinggu Elderly Care Community, Taikang Home, on the day of the Double Ninth Festival that the development of healthy elderly care is not only an important task of the "14th Five Year Plan", but also essential to the implementation of the overall strategic layout of the country's "14th Five Year Plan".
Liu Guangjun, deputy director of the Employment and Social Security Research Center of Tsinghua University, believes that the aging rate in China is too fast. 76% of the elderly are aged with diseases. The supply of medical resources and rehabilitation care resources cannot keep up with the growth of the number of elderly. During the "14th Five Year Plan" period, the idea of combining medical care with nursing care should shift from the original disease management to lengthen the health period of the elderly, Guide the elderly to actively put health management ahead.
During the 14th Five Year Plan period, the elderly population in China will exceed 300 million
Li Banghua, deputy director of the Department of Elderly Care Services of the Ministry of Civil Affairs, said recently that according to relevant forecasts, the country's elderly population will exceed 300 million during the "14th Five Year Plan" period, and will move from mild aging to moderate aging. According to the analysis of the Ministry of Civil Affairs, five to ten years later, the first generation of only child parents in China will enter the middle and old age, China will usher in a wave of elderly care, and elderly care services will accept greater challenges and tests.
According to the aging schedule, the elderly over 65 years old who account for 7% to 14% of the total population will enter an aging society. If they account for 14% to 21%, they will enter a moderately aging society, and if they account for 21% or more, they will enter a purely severely aging society.
Chen Dongsheng, the founder, chairman and CEO of Taikang Insurance Group, said that at present, the number of people over 65 years old in China has reached 12.7%, which is close to a moderately aging society. It is unexpected that China has entered an aging society so quickly, and it is also unexpected that we are so unprepared for an aging society.
The age of longevity has come. According to the data released by the Shanghai Civil Affairs Bureau on October 25, the number of centenarians in Shanghai exceeded 3000 for the first time. Since 1953, the number of centenarians in Shanghai has ranged from 1 to 1000, lasting 58 years; From 1000 to 2000, it takes 6 years; From 2000 to 3000, it only takes 3 years. From 2000 to 2019, the number of centenarians in Shanghai increased 7.9 times, with an average annual growth rate of 12.2%.
Although the elderly are living longer and longer, their quality of life needs to be improved. According to the data from the National Health Commission, the average life expectancy of Chinese residents in 2018 was 77 years, but the healthy life expectancy was only 68.7 years, and the average period of illness was 8.3 years.
The longevity era has posed new challenges to the supply and distribution of social resources. Liu Guangjun said that although China has built many hospitals in recent years, the per capita medical rehabilitation resources are still very scarce. For example, according to international standards, there should be 50 professionals per 100000 people, while there are only 3.6 in China. The growth rate of the elderly is faster than the supply rate, which is the problem in China.
Chen Dongsheng said that China's aging society is coming fast, and the challenge and pressure of getting old before getting rich is unprecedented in human history. When South Korea and Japan entered the aging society, their per capita GDP was US $21000-27000, while China's per capita GDP was just over US $10000, but it was close to a moderately aging society.
The 14th Five Year Plan Focuses on Healthy Elderly Care
Li Banghua said that during the "14th Five Year Plan" period, the growth curve of the elderly population in China was relatively flat, and the economic and social development continued. It was a valuable window period for actively responding to the aging population and preparing for elderly care services. In the first half of last year, the Ministry of Civil Affairs launched the preparation of the "14th Five Year Plan" elderly care service plan. At present, the preliminary special research has been completed, and the relevant planning content is being discussed in depth with relevant departments.
According to the survey data of the Commission on Aging, more than 10% of the elderly have incontinence, and 15.2% of the elderly need care. However, at present, spouse is the main caregiver for the elderly, accounting for 43.5%, son is 28.7%, daughter is 10.6%, there are a small number of domestic nannies, accounting for 2.9%, and only 1.1% of them use professional medical care or professional elderly care.
Zhu Yaoyin said that 253 million elderly people over 60 years old spent two thirds of their remaining life in a state of living with diseases. However, the supply of the old-age medical service system is generally insufficient. We need to vigorously develop socialized medical care services to change the apparent imbalance between supply and demand.
Among the seven areas of the "14th Five Year Plan" that Guotai Jun'an Research Newspaper is optimistic about, there are two related to healthy pension, namely, population structure, medical consumption and pension services. The Research Newspaper believes that these two areas will generate obvious demand.
The research report believes that China's population structure will undergo profound changes, the per capita income will also be close to the level of high-income countries, the consumption rate and consumption upgrading will become more obvious, and medical consumption will also reach a new level. During the "14th Five Year Plan" period, there will be great demand for social insurance, standardized elderly care services, community elderly care, home-based elderly care, information construction of elderly care services, elderly care medical equipment, etc.
Liu Tingjun, president of Taikang Insurance Group, said that the combination of medical care and nursing care is a new model facing the changes of disease pedigree in the long life era. In the past, the whole health supply system was hospital centered, but aging faced a transition from acute disease to chronic disease, such as diabetes, hypertension, respiratory system and mental diseases. The mode of care for these chronic diseases should not be that the elderly must go to the hospital, but that the community where they live provides these care services. This is the biggest change.
"The combination of medical care and nursing care is, to be precise, an elderly care community that combines health care and rehabilitation, which is a long-term strategic solution to the challenge of chronic diseases in the long life era," said Liu Tingjun.
Yang Yansui, director of the Employment and Social Security Research Center of Tsinghua University, believes that the real combination of medical care and elderly care is not the hospital for elderly care, nor the nursing home for elderly care, but to make the management of chronic diseases and health of middle-aged and elderly people, as well as all kinds of care needed by the elderly, accessible. This is the combination of medical care and elderly care.
Local governments actively cooperate with social capital to deal with aging
Zhu Yaoyin said that since last year, senior officials have asked the Commission on Aging to find out about the aging industry. The Aged Committee made a thorough investigation on the participation of insurance funds, bank funds, large state-owned enterprises and real estate enterprises in the elderly care business in China.
In the face of rapid aging, local governments have made arrangements in the elderly care industry, enthusiastically extending an olive branch to medical and nursing social capital. The rapid landing of Taikang Family across the country in recent years is a microcosm. At present, Taikang Home Elderly Care Community has covered 20 key cities in core areas such as Beijing Tianjin Hebei, Yangtze River Delta, Guangdong Hong Kong Macao Greater Bay Area, Southwest China and Central China.
Taking Hangzhou as an example, at the opening ceremony of the Daqinggu Elderly Care Community, Taikang signed a cooperation agreement with Hangzhou West Lake District and finalized the site selection of the second elderly care community. At the same time, Taikang also signed a strategic cooperation agreement with the West Lake Urban Investment Group, a subsidiary of the West Lake District Government, to combine the medical care and health industry with urban renewal and upgrading, new town construction, industrial supporting upgrading, revitalization of state-owned assets, and jointly carry out multi-dimensional strategic cooperation on the general health industry in the West Lake District and Hangzhou City.
Liu Guangjun said that it is not enough to rely solely on the efforts of the government and enterprises to deal with the aging of the population. We must advocate active aging, instead of relying on the supply of medical resources and rehabilitation care resources, we should give play to the initiative of the elderly, put health management ahead, and extend the health period of the elderly.
Zhu Yaoyin suggested that for individuals, they should effectively strengthen the pension preparation throughout the life cycle. On the one hand, it is psychological and spiritual preparation, and on the other hand, it is more important to reserve material wealth. In addition, the whole society should also reserve wealth for future pension.