Original title: The pressure is released obviously, and grasp the window of excellent overseas Chinese share allocation?
1、 Overseas market pressure has been released obviously
After the Spring Festival, the expectation of the US economic recovery led to the rise of the long-term US bond yield, which made the market's expectation of the time point of the US monetary tightening significantly advance and suppressed the market performance. In addition, the continued strength of the US dollar index also triggered concerns about the return of US dollar funds.
CICC believes that the market has obviously released pressure after substantial adjustment (The previous problem was not fundamentals, but over accounting of market expectations.).
citic securities According to the analysis, investors may have "excessive anxiety" about the capital outflow from emerging markets (including China) due to the reversal of the dollar cycle.
For example, although we have undergone significant adjustments, we have not seen capital outflow from emerging markets.
CITIC analysis, benefiting from the relatively flexible monetary policy, stable economic structure and strong fundamental support of the current round in emerging markets, even if the US bond yield further rises, funds will not flow out of emerging markets (especially China) significantly; In addition, since the Federal Reserve changed its monetary policy anchor, the goal of restoring employment has been placed before controlling inflation. Combined with the recent Federal Reserve's reiteration of easing, it is expected that overseas liquidity easing will continue. Overall, we are expected to face a more favorable external environment in the second quarter than in the first quarter.
2、 After adjustment, where did the valuation go down?
CITIC Securities Analysis, Previously, the market had some concerns about the rapid increase of the valuation of outstanding companies in the past year. However, with the recent adjustment, the configuration cost performance ratio of emerging consumption, science and technology, and pharmaceutical sectors whose valuation has entered a reasonable region has become prominent 。
From the perspective of matching valuation and performance, CITIC believes that Household and personal products In 2021, the dynamic PE is only 19.9x, and Automobile and parts, durable consumer goods and technical hardware equipment PE will be below 30 times in 2021, and the configuration cost performance ratio will be further highlighted.
In terms of traditional value sectors, Hong Kong stock cycle stocks began to rise after the festival.
Since the fourth quarter of last year, Hong Kong shares have continued to outperform A-shares. Among the index weights of Hong Kong shares, the pro cyclical sector accounts for a larger proportion. The stabilization of the RMB exchange rate also means that Hong Kong shares with the same fundamentals but lower valuations have become more attractive to global investors.
From the perspective of valuation, since the fourth quarter, Hong Kong shares have welcomed valuation repair in a pro cyclical manner, but still have strong valuation advantages 。 Specifically, the current valuations of H shares in the banking, non banking, energy and real estate sectors are low, respectively at the 18%/18%/14%/18% quantile since 2015.
In addition to valuation advantages, pro cyclical H shares listed in both places also have allocation value in dividend yield, which is a very important indicator for value investors.
From the perspective of valuation and dividend, CITIC Securities believes that the pro cyclical financial and energy sectors of Hong Kong stocks are highly attractive.
Allocation suggestion: actively allocate the "new economy" sector with matching growth and valuation
Finally, in terms of configuration, CITIC Securities gives 3 Main lines:
1) "New Economy" growth stocks with fully adjusted valuations, especially core targets in consumer electronics, semiconductors, consumer durables, property management, education, CXO and other sectors;
2) The domestic epidemic situation has been stably controlled, and the turnover of people on holidays is expected to continue to reach a new high. It is suggested to focus on tourism hotels, aviation, transportation, gambling and other fields with performance restoration;
3) Longer term economic recovery will bring stable profit recovery, H-share financial board (relatively low valuation level and high dividend payout) and carbon neutrality (energy conservation and emission reduction, utilities, building materials, etc.).
$Hang Seng Index (800000. HK) $$Hang Seng Technology Index (800700. HK)$
Massive information, accurate interpretation, all in Sina Finance APP
