Is "good economy" really good? What is the logic behind star fund managers' reduction of white liquor? What is the impact on investors? Please come here for details Sina Finance University , listen Miss Dong Column Interpretation.
Nearly 80% of the positions were reduced. Zhang Kun did not love liquor, but loved soy sauce and liquor. Should he "fall off the altar"?
According to the Associated Press on April 7, liquor, the "weather vane", led the decline of A-shares today, Gujing Gong wine 、 Luzhou Laojiao The decline was more than 6%, Shanxi Fenjiu 、 Jiugui Liquor 、 Kouzi cellar Down nearly 5%, Wuliangye Closed down 4.88%, Guizhou Moutai It closed down 3%.
On the news side, Zhang Kun, the "public offering elder brother", reduced his holdings of liquor on a large scale and originally held 14 million shares Shuijingfang However, there are still 3 million shares left in the latest announcement, and the shareholding of Swellfun is reduced by nearly 80%.
On April 2, Swellfun issued a stock repurchase announcement, and the latest shareholding of its top ten shareholders was also announced. As of March 29, Zhang Kun's E Fund small and medium cap hybrid fund held 3 million shares, down nearly 80% from 14 million shares at the end of the fourth quarter of 2020. Based on the average price of 85.5 yuan/share, 940 million yuan was realized.
It is not difficult to observe the stock price trend and find that with the reduction of institutional positions, Swellfun's biggest callback in the year was nearly 36%. In April, the stock price gradually stabilized.
Zhang Kun, who has a special liking for "food and beverage", put his eyes on the field of seasoning when abandoning liquor in the first quarter, mainly dealing in soy sauce Zhongju High tech Become Zhang Kun's new favorite. According to the top ten shareholders disclosed by Zhongju High tech as of April 1, the three funds managed by Zhang Kun, the "public offering elder brother" - E Fund's small and medium-sized stocks, E Fund's blue chip selection, and E Fund's high-quality enterprises have all been among the top ten shareholders in three years, with 34 million shares, 31 million shares, and 9 million shares, respectively, an increase of 15 million shares, 29.5 million shares 9 million shares.
Organizations firmly serve as liquor platforms
In April, the financial report disclosure ushered in a peak period. The agency said that the achievement of the liquor sector will digest the overestimated value of the previous period, and is expected to usher in a rebound market. The valuation of some liquors in the callback will also return to a reasonable level.
citic securities On April 6, the research report said that through the Chengdu Spring Sugar Conference, three major trends of the industry in the short and long term continued to be established: ① In the short term, the liquor industry is booming under the stable epidemic and economic recovery, and it is expected that the price increase and volume increase in 2021 will jointly drive the high growth with strong certainty; ② The upgrading of liquor consumption continued to continue, showing an accelerated state, with the high-end price of 1000 yuan rapidly expanding with demand - the secondary high-end price belt moved up as a whole; ③ The hot sauce and wine industry has become a trend, and the industry has a broad space. Look at the capacity release in the short term, and look at the competition of comprehensive capabilities with brand as the core in the long term.
Therefore, CITIC Securities said that Under the positive signal of Spring Candy Fair and the catalyst of a good start in 2021, the sector is expected to see a rebound We recommend Shanxi Fenjiu, Jiugui Liquor and Luzhou Laojiao with 2021Q1 high elasticity standard, and Guizhou Maotai and Wuliangye with both offensive and defensive capabilities.
Tianfeng Securities On April 6, the research report said that the long-term valuation of high-end liquor would be based on Moutai 40X, Maotai's scarcity and high barriers have become a consensus. In the long run, it is still the most high-quality and core target, belonging to the "poetry and distance" of the food and beverage sector. Other high-end liquors have also returned to a reasonable level of valuation in the callback. In terms of the secondary high-end, the Spring Festival banquet this year has not yet been fully opened. With the gradual opening up, the secondary high-end will continue to improve. It is suggested to focus on Shede and Kouzijiao.
Huafu Securities said in its research report on April 6 that as some companies in the liquor sector announced their 2020 performance and the first quarter report of 2021, The performance of the plate realized the overestimation of the previous period, the confidence of the plate recovered, and the overall trend continued to stabilize.
According to the research report of Kaiyuan Securities on April 5, considering the low base effect brought by the impact of the 2020Q1 epidemic, it is expected that the first quarterly report of the liquor sector as a whole will become one of the most obvious sub industries for consumption recovery. From the perspective of individual stocks, the expectations of the head liquor companies are relatively full. Under the background of high industry prosperity, some second-line targets may exceed expectations through internal marketing reform, and the probability of excess returns in the short term is greater.
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Editor in charge: Peng Jiabing
