Stock speculation depends Jin Qilin analyst research report , authoritative, professional, timely and comprehensive, to help you tap potential theme opportunities!
International gold prices continued to soar.
On March 20, spot gold once stood at $2000/ounce, the first time since March 2022. The price of Comex gold futures hit above US $2000, just one step away from the historical peak of US $2089/ounce in August 2020. Last week, the price rose as high as 6%.
The price of domestic gold futures also rose at the same time. The main gold futures contract of the SSE rose at the opening, hitting 443.2 yuan/gram in the session. As of the close of 445.02 yuan/g, up 3.07%.
In the secondary market, Wind data shows that the gold index (882415. WI) rose 4.68% by the end of March 20.
On the evening of March 20, the Shanghai Gold Exchange announced that there were many uncertain factors affecting the market operation in the near future, the market risk was significantly increased, and the price fluctuation was significantly increased. "All member units are requested to improve their awareness of risk prevention, make detailed risk contingency plans, prompt investors to do a good job in risk prevention, reasonably control their positions and make rational investments."
Gold prices hit a new high in nearly 11 months
On March 20, spot gold once stood at $2000/ounce, the first time since March 2022, and then it rose and fell.
COMEX gold futures prices also rose sharply, reaching above US $2000, just one step from the historical peak of US $2089/ounce in August 2020. Last week, the weekly price increase was as high as 6%. The last time gold saw a weekly increase of more than 6% was in March 2020.
Jerry Chen, a senior analyst of Jiasheng Group, pointed out that, on the basic level, the demand for risk aversion and the expectation that the Federal Reserve would slow down or even suspend the pace of interest rate hikes were all good for gold prices. Technically, the gold price has risen along the channel since the rebound of 1615. Last week, it broke through the February high of 1960. It seems that the impact of $2000 this week will be widely expected. However, the acquisition of Credit Suisse depressed the gold price in early Monday morning, and the possibility of overbought correction cannot be ignored.
"At present, the gold price is about 11% off the 200 day moving average. The data since 2008 shows that when the deviation degree reaches 15% or even more than 20%, the probability of a deep retreat increases significantly." Jerry Chen said.
citic securities It was pointed out that the continuous fermentation of the Silicon Valley bank event led to the rising of market panic, the surge of risk aversion and the rise of gold price. Compared with the uncertainty of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy changes, the risk aversion triggered by the Silicon Valley bank event and the supporting effect of recession expectations on gold prices are more clear. If the risk of subsequent Silicon Valley bank events spreads further, the gold price is expected to exceed the high before 2020.
Gold concept stocks exploded
In the secondary market, Wind data shows that the Wande Gold Industry Index contains 12 constituent stocks. Except for the suspension of * ST Ronghua, the remaining 11 stocks rose on March 20.
Specifically, Zhongrun Resources (Rights protection) （000506）、 Sichuan Gold (001337) trading limit, Chifeng Gold （600988）、 Western Gold （601069）、 Hunan Gold (002155) rose by more than 9%, Yintai Gold （000975）、 Humon Shares (002237) and other stocks rose by more than 5%, and the remaining stocks followed. Among them, the secondary IPO of Sichuan Gold recorded 12 boards on the 12th.
CITIC Securities judged that, with the establishment of the upward trend of gold price, the market will prefer gold leading stocks with the advantages of output and resource scale, which is mainly due to the greater profit elasticity and valuation decline of related enterprises in the process of gold price rise. According to the analysis of the valuation system of gold stocks, market value/output and market value/resource reserves are more timely valuation indicators in the phase of accelerated gold price rise. Under this framework, enterprises with high proportion of gold business and large output may benefit more.
Haitong Securities It is pointed out that gold mining enterprises can fully benefit from the rising gold price. With the help of performance elasticity, the company's profits will rise more than the gold price. Generally speaking, for companies with a high proportion of mineral gold business, high unit production costs or high fixed expenses, the more flexible their performance is, the recommended Shandong Gold (600547), Chifeng Gold and Yintai Gold, attention recommended CICC Gold (600489), Hunan Gold, Sichuan Gold, etc.
The Central Bank has a strong demand for gold
Behind the sharp rise in the price of gold related assets is the crisis of Silicon Valley Bank, Credit Suisse and other European and American banks, the reversal of the Federal Reserve's expectation of interest rate increase, the test of US dollar credit, and the purchase of gold by central banks.
According to the data released by the World Gold Council, at the beginning of 2023, the global central bank gold demand will grow on the basis of 2022. In January, the global central bank's official gold reserves increased by 31 tons (16% higher than the previous month).
"Looking into the future, we have little reason to doubt that central banks will continue to take a positive attitude towards gold and continue to buy gold net in 2023, but the specific purchase volume is still difficult to predict, as evidenced by our forecast at the beginning of 2022. However, we have reason to believe that the central bank's purchase demand in 2023 may be difficult to match the level of 2022." World Gold Council said.
CICC The research paper pointed out that, in the short term, although the employment data of the United States in February was mixed, due to the hawkish expectation that it might have been fully included, the US bond interest rate did not rise again, and the gold price was more resilient. The takeover of Silicon Valley banks reflects that the Fed's interest rate hike is causing increased risks in the US financial system, and the Fed's interest rate hike may come to an end. In the long run, the global monetary system is facing profound changes, and the purchase demand for gold reserves is rising systematically.
Haitong Securities believes that the global central banks have gradually increased their emphasis on monetary and financial autonomy and controllability. For the purpose of stabilizing currency credit, optimizing the asset structure of foreign exchange reserves and maintaining the proportion of gold in foreign exchange reserves, it is expected that the attribute of gold as a "super sovereign" currency will continue to be highlighted, and the central bank's demand for gold may remain high. From the perspective of overall demand, under the condition that the total amount of traditional demand and investment demand remains basically stable, the central bank's purchase of gold is strong or supports the gold price.
Safe, fast and guaranteed futures account opening on Sina cooperation platform
Sina statement: This message is reproduced from Sina's cooperative media. The purpose of posting this article on Sina.com is to convey more information, and does not mean to agree with its views or confirm its description. The content of this article is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors operate accordingly at their own risk.
Massive information, accurate interpretation, all in Sina Finance APP
Editor in charge: Zhou Wei
