Original title: News 1+1 | "Overcapacity" of China's new energy vehicles? These accusations are untenable
On April 25, the 2024 Beijing International Auto Show, which returned four years later, opened. For new energy vehicles at this auto show, in addition to their own brands, foreign auto companies are also emphasizing cooperation with Chinese enterprises to develop their own new energy market and Chinese market. What kind of information are these details releasing? Is China's new energy "overcapacity"? Or market demand?
What does it mean that the proportion of new energy vehicles exceeds 80%?
Zhu Min, Vice President of China Center for International Economic Exchanges: ① It is particularly important that the global automobile direction is new energy, because the Beijing auto show is not only a Chinese auto show, but also a world auto show. ② China's new energy vehicles have taken the lead in the world. China's new energy vehicles were very dazzling at the auto show, and everyone praised China's cars endlessly. These two trends show that we are all implementing global carbon neutrality, we are all taking the road of new energy vehicles, and China is ahead, which is a good thing.
What does it mean for international automobile enterprises to increase cooperation with Chinese automobile enterprises in the field of new energy vehicles?
Zhu Min, Vice President of the China Center for International Economic Exchanges: This is a very good thing. For example, Volkswagen of Germany will establish the largest R&D center outside Germany in Hefei to produce electric vehicles. Hefei is an important city for electric vehicles in China, so it is meaningful for Volkswagen to choose this place to camp. First, the public should come to China to learn and contact Chinese technology and experience. Secondly, Volkswagen also knows that the future electric vehicle market in China is very huge and has great potential. It also hopes to participate in the competition in China and make profits in the Chinese market. New energy vehicles are the future of the world and a high-tech industry. Therefore, in this field, the flow of technology, capital, people and cooperation between enterprises are particularly important.
Does China's new energy capacity threaten other countries' industries and employment? Will multinational car companies affect us when they come to China?
Zhu Min, Vice President of the China Center for International Economic Exchanges: ① These foreign criticisms are basically based on narrow protectionist ideas. They think that if you set up a factory here, your technology is good and you rob me of my employment, so I can't let you in. This is a very old idea. ② China welcomes enterprises from all over the world to come to China. The competition in the field of electric vehicles is very open to the future. Because the biggest goal of electric vehicles is to achieve the common aspiration of mankind - carbon neutral transformation, which requires everyone to work together. At the same time, it is very important because it is a science with high-tech development, and it also needs everyone's cooperation to develop. So in this sense, China's open attitude is in line with the trend of the times, the development of science and technology, and the pursuit of carbon neutrality. When it comes to the "overcapacity" of China's new energy, this old protectionism is untenable.
Is China's new energy vehicles referred to as "overcapacity"? From the three indicators of economic principles, it is untenable!
Zhu Min, Vice President of China International Economic Exchange Center: There are several basic indicators of overcapacity: ① Whether there is government subsidy. Most of our new energy vehicles are private enterprises, and the government now clearly has no subsidies. ② Is there dumping. The concept of dumping is that the price in the foreign market is lower than that in the domestic market, so we certainly do not dump. ③ Whether foreign sales are greater than domestic sales. Our sales abroad are far less than those at home, and the huge market is at home. Therefore, judging from the fundamental economic principles, it is totally untenable to accuse China's new energy vehicles of "overcapacity".
For China's new energy, why do some western countries use the weapon of "overcapacity"? What is the intention?
Zhu Min, Vice President of the China Center for International Economic Exchanges: Behind the "overcapacity", more and more Western politicians are politicizing related issues. In the field of new energy vehicles, it is a very serious problem to politicize "overcapacity". They said that this was an institutional problem, a systemic problem, but they could not provide specific evidence. Only through the big debate of "overcapacity" could they block the road of China and win a space for themselves. This brings the world back to a low equilibrium point, which is not conducive to the global carbon neutral transformation.
Why do foreign car companies slow down the promotion of electric vehicles in China? And some multinational automobile enterprises are increasing their R&D investment in the Chinese market?
Zhu Min, Vice President of the China Center for International Economic Exchanges: ① Foreign infrastructure restrictions are indeed a very specific problem. Because one of the most important things in using electric vehicles is infrastructure. If there is no charging pile, it will be more difficult. ② Why do German enterprises come to China? Today is new energy, tomorrow is Internet connected vehicles, and the day after tomorrow is driverless vehicles... These all require high-tech, 5G infrastructure, and the Internet of Things. China is the best in the world in this regard. Therefore, foreign auto companies are soberly aware that it may be difficult to compete globally in the future if they do not have a foothold in China. ③ Some countries may delay, but from the perspective of science and technology, the more delay, the greater the gap will be. Because of the core problem, today's electric vehicles belong to the semiconductor industry. The semiconductor industry applies Moore's Law, and its scientific and technological capabilities will become stronger and stronger, and its costs will become lower and lower. So as long as you are a little late, the gap will become bigger and bigger.
The world has a huge demand for new energy, and the current production capacity is far from enough. China is a very important part of the production capacity supply
Zhu Min, Vice President of the China Center for International Economic Exchanges: The world has a huge demand for new energy, and the current capacity is far from being reached. China is a very important part of the existing capacity. Therefore, China plays an important role in helping the world achieve carbon neutrality by giving full play to its production capacity advantages and actively providing new energy. Due to technological reasons, the new energy industry has been moving forward in the development process, and backward production capacity has been eliminated. It seems that there is "overcapacity" on the surface, but the market demand is huge.
China's new energy industry should see the world market situation clearly and develop step by step in a rational, powerful and economical manner
Zhu Min, Vice President of the China Center for International Economic Exchanges: For industry, we should also note that the international market is not completely a real market. Therefore, the whole new energy industry should also see the world market situation, develop step by step in a reasonable, beneficial and economical way, cooperate with the world, go out more and develop new energy with everyone, which is the future.
Will foreign business circles think that China's new energy industry is overcapacity?
Zhu Min, Vice President of China International Economic Exchange Center: For foreign people, they feel that electric vehicles are easy to use because of low operating costs, low maintenance costs, convenience and environmental protection. They complain that the government does not provide enough infrastructure. For foreign enterprises, this is the future and must be joined. Foreign car enterprises are willing to set up factories in China, but they may not be able to compete in the world in the future if they do not set up factories in China, so foreign enterprises are willing to cooperate. Some foreign politicians and media, with traditional conservatism, believe that the development momentum of China's new energy vehicles cannot be blocked, because this is where the tide of development lies.
How can China's new energy industry improve its internal skills to deal with the obstacles of some western countries?
Zhu Min, Vice President of the China Center for International Economic Exchanges: We should learn from the lessons of production capacity in history and develop overseas markets in a rational, beneficial and disciplined manner. At the same time, the government should try to help enterprises break through domestic blockages, because domestic demand is still huge. From photovoltaic to new energy vehicles, the domestic market will be opened up, and the domestic market will be better and better, and the potential for overseas development will be greater and greater. Therefore, enterprises and the government should cooperate to increase transparency and get through the domestic blockages. Enterprises should also face the world, carry out more communication and exchanges, and expand global cooperation. In terms of photovoltaic power, the most important thing now is the marketization of electricity prices, the marketization of electricity trading and the further reform of the power grid.
