After 2023, China's photovoltaic industry has maintained the advantages of quantity and quality improvement: the output of solar cells has increased by 54% over the previous year, and the number of patent applications in the world is 126400, ranking first in the world; The new installed capacity of solar energy is equivalent to the new installed capacity of global solar energy in 2022.
From the "three ends out" of raw materials, equipment and market in the past, to the present, nearly half of the world's installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation and more than 80% of the output of major manufacturing links, China's photovoltaic industry has achieved leapfrog development. Why does China lead the world in photovoltaic products? What challenges does the current industry face? The reporter conducted an interview.
Grasp the new opportunity of green low-carbon transformation, accelerate the iteration of photovoltaic industry technology, and steadily expand the scale
In Shannan, Tibet, on the plateau between 4994m and 5100m above sea level, nearly 80000 photovoltaic panels shine in the light. On December 30, 2023, Huadian Tibet Caipeng Photovoltaic Project will be connected to the grid for power generation. The daily power generation of the highest altitude photovoltaic project in the world can meet the power demand of nearly 4000 households.
"The project uses the ultra-high power modules produced by us, and it only took more than a month from the order placement to the completion of the supply." Gao Jifan, chairman of Trina Solar, said that in the first three quarters of 2023, the cumulative shipment of PV modules by enterprises exceeded 170 GW, equivalent to the installed capacity of nearly eight Three Gorges power stations.
Speaking of Tibet, Gao Jifan recalled his experience 22 years ago. In 2002, China launched the "power transmission to villages" project, which solved the power consumption problem of more than 700 villages without electricity through the construction of photovoltaic power stations, wind solar complementary power stations, etc. Gao Jifan took 18 colleagues to the plateau and completed the installation of 40 photovoltaic power stations.
"At that time, equipment had to be carried to the site by people and horses, and a power station only had an average of more than 20 kilowatts and dozens of photovoltaic panels, using foreign brands." Gao Jifan said that at that time, China's photovoltaic industry was just starting, and there were few enterprises manufacturing photovoltaic products. Trina Solar, which had just been established for five years, did not even have a module factory, with an annual revenue of about 100 million yuan; Now, only in the first three quarters of 2023, the company's revenue has exceeded 80 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of more than 40% and profit growth of more than 100%.
The data released by China Photovoltaic Industry Association shows that in the first 10 months of 2023, the output value of photovoltaic manufacturing end will exceed 1.3 trillion yuan; In the first three quarters of 2023, the output of photovoltaic silicon materials, silicon chips, batteries and modules has exceeded that of the whole year of last year, and the export volume of silicon chips, battery chips and modules has increased by 88.3%, 74.3% and 33% year on year respectively.
Behind the steady expansion of the photovoltaic industry is the opportunity brought by the global green low-carbon transformation and China's promotion of the "double carbon" goal.
"Photovoltaics has become a relatively economic power source in most countries and regions in the world, and will become a supporting force for green and low-carbon transformation." Li Zhenguo, president of Longji Green Energy Technology Co., Ltd., introduced that according to estimates, from silicon materials to photovoltaic modules, the direct energy consumption is about 0.4 kilowatt hours per watt, and the total life cycle power generation of photovoltaic modules per watt is about 45 kilowatt hours, About 100 times of its energy consumption.
The International Energy Agency recently released a report showing that in 2023, the new installed capacity of global renewable energy will increase by 50% over the previous year, with the new installed capacity reaching 510 GW, and solar photovoltaic will account for about 3/4. By the beginning of 2025, renewable energy, including photovoltaic, will become the most important power source in the world. In China, by the end of November 2023, the cumulative installed capacity of solar power generation in China is about 560 million kilowatts, up 49.9% year on year; The main power generation enterprises invested 320.9 billion yuan in solar power generation, up 60.5% year on year.
Behind the steady expansion of the scale of the photovoltaic industry is the dividends brought by enterprises' accelerating technology iteration and promoting cost reduction.
In Longji Lvneng Xi'an Battery Factory, a 17000 square meter dust-free workshop, on average, one solar cell is offline in 0.8 seconds. Carefully observe the dark blue battery chip, which is lined with white thin lines. This grid line composed of conductive materials such as silver powder is responsible for collecting and exporting electrons generated by sunlight. In the screen printing process, the silver paste will be attached to the battery sheet through the screen printing plate, and then dried and sintered.
"In the past, the purchase of silver paste accounted for about half of the production cost of solar cells. Today, we use a screen plate with a line width of only about 9 microns, and the grid line is thinner, which can significantly reduce the consumption of silver paste, reduce the shading area, and improve the conversion efficiency of the battery." Chang Pengfei, president of Longji Green Energy Battery Manufacturing Center, introduced the consumption of silver paste on the front of a single 7.9 watt cell, It has dropped from about 100 mg in the past to about 46 mg.
Chang Pengfei told reporters that compared with more than 10 years ago, silicon chips have dropped from about 100 yuan per piece to two or three yuan, modules have dropped from more than 40 yuan per watt to less than 1 yuan, power generation conversion efficiency has dropped from 14% to 15%, and now mainstream technology can reach 24% to 25%. "Cost has been greatly reduced, efficiency has been steadily improved, and the scale of photovoltaic applications has been continuously improved."
Keep moving towards high-end and high efficiency, and take the road of differentiated competition
As a new track led by the goal of "double carbon", the photovoltaic industry has broad development space and has attracted many enterprises to cross the border. Since 2023, the output and export volume of photovoltaic products have been outstanding, but they are also facing challenges such as overcapacity in the middle and low end, and continuous low prices.
From the data, from January to October 2023, the prices of polysilicon and module products will fall by 60% and 40% respectively. The price of components quickly dropped to below 1 yuan from about 1.8 yuan per watt at the beginning of the year. In some manufacturing links, the product homogeneity competition is fierce, and the price and cost are inversely linked.
Many interviewees believe that the "knockout competition" is inevitable in market competition, and some low-end production capacity will be cleared. Only by taking the road of differentiated competition and strengthening innovation investment, can high-quality enterprises better build a "moat".
——Develop towards high-end and practice "killer mace".
When entering the 100000 ton granular silicon project of Sichuan Leshan GCL Technology, the gray granular silicon with a diameter of 2mm flows into the storage tank, waiting for inspection and shipment. "On average, about 10 vehicles and nearly 300 tons of granular silicon are shipped every day, and we have received orders close to the capacity limit," said Wang Yongliang, General Manager of Leshan GCL Technology.
Under the background of overall oversupply of silicon materials, why can granular silicon be produced at full capacity? Zhu Gongshan, Chairman of GCL Group, introduced that compared with the currently widely used rod silicon, the granular silicon has smaller volume and stronger liquidity, and each furnace can be filled with 15% to 20% more silicon material; Moreover, the energy consumption is lower. Using granular silicon to produce 1 gigawatt modules can reduce carbon dioxide emissions by about 19%, which will help reduce the cost of the application end by about 19%.
From the beginning of research and development of granular silicon in 2010 to the realization of 10000 ton industrialization in 2019, GCL Group has invested more than 3 billion yuan. At present, the unit gross profit of granular silicon produced by them is more than 15% higher than that of rod silicon. At present, GCL is accelerating the commercial application of large-scale perovskite battery technology. Compared with the traditional crystalline silicon battery, the perovskite battery has shorter preparation process and lower energy consumption. Moreover, because of the characteristics of light weight, bendability, translucency, etc., the application scenarios are more abundant.
——Strive for high efficiency and become a leader.
27.09%！ In December 2023, Longji Green Energy broke the world record for the efficiency of single crystal silicon solar cells, which is another breakthrough after the world record for the efficiency of silicon solar cells of 26.81% in 2022.
The improved conversion efficiency of the battery means that the same area absorbs the same light and can emit more electricity. "Based on the global newly added PV installed capacity of 240 GW in 2022, if the conversion efficiency is increased by 0.01%, 140 million kWh of electricity can be generated every year." Li Zhenguo said that on the basis of 20% conversion efficiency, every 1% increase in conversion efficiency can save more than 5% of the cost for downstream power stations.
The secret of repeatedly breaking records comes from the R&D concept of "wide R&D and narrow investment": "wide R&D", that is, layout of different potential technical routes and industrial fields; "Narrow investment" means to concentrate on putting the optimized technology into mass production. In the past five years, Longji Green Energy has invested more than 18 billion yuan in research and development.
Since 2014, Chinese enterprises have created the world's highest photoelectric conversion efficiency more than 50 times. Cao Renxian, president of China Photovoltaic Industry Association and chairman of Sungrow Power Supply, said that in 2023, the industrialization of tunneling oxide passivation contact cells, heterojunction batteries, back contact batteries and other technologies will be accelerated, and the conversion efficiency of new types of batteries such as perovskite and stack will reach new heights, and China's photovoltaic technology will lead the world.
Integrate innovation, set up factories overseas, and continue to expand market depth and breadth
Guided by the goal of "double carbon", photovoltaic is deeply integrated with industries, buildings, transportation and other fields, and constantly expands the depth and breadth of the market through application mode innovation.
Green hydrogen is used for refining. In the Sinopec Xinjiang Kuqa Green Hydrogen Demonstration Project, the green electricity produced by more than 500000 photovoltaic panels is made into green hydrogen, which is transported to the refining enterprises through pipelines to replace the natural gas used in refining and processing to produce hydrogen and realize the greening of refining products.
"Since the hydrogen production on June 30, 2023, the project has cumulatively transported more than 27 million standard cubic meters of green hydrogen to Tahe Refining and Chemical. With the completion of capacity expansion and transformation of Tahe Refining and Chemical production plant, the green hydrogen transmission capacity will gradually increase, and it is expected that by the fourth quarter of 2025, the hydrogen transmission capacity will reach 20000 tons/year." The relevant person in charge of Sinopec introduced.
The building puts on "new clothes". In Dongyu Island, Hainan, where the permanent site of the Boao Forum for Asia is located, hotels, parking garages, etc. are equipped with photovoltaic building integrated products (BIPV). Different from the traditional support of photovoltaic panels on the roof, the roof itself here is composed of inner panels, insulation cotton, outer panels, photovoltaic power generation layer, etc. BIPV makes PV truly a part of the building, and there is no need to leave a channel for installation, which means that larger capacity components can be installed on the same roof area, and the power generation can be increased by about 15%.
Building factories overseas has also become the development trend of photovoltaic industry in the past two years. TCL Central actively promotes the investment and construction of photovoltaic crystal wafer factory project in Saudi Arabia; Jing'ao Technology plans to invest about 2.715 billion yuan to build a 5 GW efficient battery project in Vietnam; CSI has established a photovoltaic module production base with an annual output of 5 gigawatts in Texas, U.S.A
Liu Yiyang, deputy secretary-general of China Photovoltaic Industry Association, introduced that currently photovoltaic enterprises have set up factories overseas, and their destinations have expanded from Southeast Asia to the United States, the Middle East, Indonesia and other markets; There are more links in the layout of overseas production capacity, and it has become a trend for upstream and downstream industrial chains to go overseas. "In addition, from simply exporting products in the past to providing production, management, brand and services, we will build a win-win ecosystem for global cooperation."
"Photovoltaic products are changing from" Made in China and sold globally "to" Made in the world and sold globally ". Facing the future, it is necessary to build a high-quality photovoltaic industry coordinated development ecology, further actively integrate into the global industrial system, and carry out international cooperation in green energy and other fields." Gao Jifan said.
(Reporter Ding Yiting)
