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  •  2023 IDC industry development prospect analysis
    2023 IDC industry development prospect analysis

    With the continuous progress of information technology and the popularization of Internet applications, the development prospect of data center (IDC) industry is increasingly broad.

    1、 Demand growth drives IDC industry development

    First, the popularity of Internet applications and the rapid growth of data volume have promoted the development of IDC industry. With the increasing dependence of people on the Internet and the rapid development of cloud computing, big data, artificial intelligence and other emerging technologies, the requirements for data storage and processing capabilities are also increasing. At the same time, various industries have begun to transform to digital, and the demand for data centers is also growing. These factors have promoted the rapid development of IDC industry, and will continue to promote the sustainable development of IDC industry in the future.

    2、 Technological innovation promotes the upgrading of IDC industry

    Secondly, the continuous innovation of technology has also promoted the upgrading and development of IDC industry. With the continuous progress of technology, the application of various emerging technologies, such as artificial intelligence, blockchain, 5G, etc., has increasingly high requirements for the IDC industry. Data center enterprises need to constantly improve their technical capabilities and service quality to meet customer needs. At the same time, IDC enterprises also need to strengthen compliance, security and other aspects of management to ensure data security and meet customer compliance requirements. These technological innovations will promote the upgrading and development of IDC industry.

    3、 The industry is highly competitive, but has broad prospects



    Finally, the IDC industry is highly competitive, but the prospect is still broad. With the increasing market competition, IDC enterprises need to strengthen their core competitiveness, provide high-quality services and support, and improve customer satisfaction. At the same time, IDC enterprises also need to pay attention to enterprise brand construction and enhance market influence. Although the market competition is fierce, the IDC industry still has broad prospects for development, because with the increasing demand for data storage and processing, IDC enterprises have the opportunity to provide customers with more high-quality services.

    To sum up, the IDC industry faces many opportunities and challenges. Although the market competition is fierce, with the popularization of Internet applications and the rapid development of emerging technologies, the IDC industry still has broad prospects for development. In addition, the development of IDC industry is also affected by policies and regulations. For example, the Chinese government has issued a series of policies in recent years to encourage the construction of data centers and the development of cloud computing, which has brought huge opportunities to the IDC industry. In addition, with the continuous growth of personal data and enterprise data, data security and privacy protection have also become an important issue. This puts forward higher requirements and provides more opportunities for IDC industry technology and services.

    In general, the IDC industry is full of opportunities and challenges. With the acceleration of digital transformation and the continuous expansion of the cloud computing market, the IDC industry will usher in a broader development prospect. At the same time, the industry competition will also become more intense. In order to stand and develop in this industry, enterprises need to have strong technical strength and service ability, and constantly innovate and improve their competitiveness.

     2023/05/09

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  •  Internet Industry Outlook in 2023
    Internet Industry Outlook in 2023

    Internet industry Outlook for 2023: Ready for a new cycle of recovery

    Affected by multiple factors, the plate continued to be weak, showing a downward trend

    YTD( December 2, 2022), the CSI Overseas China Internet Index (- 19%) outperformed the MSCI China Index (- 27%). From the peak on February 17, 2021 to now, the withdrawal rate of the Internet sector is still 69%, but it has been repaired recently. China's Internet sector will remain weak in 2022. We believe that the main factors include: the epidemic has repeatedly led to a slowdown in macro consumption, affecting corporate profits and residents' consumption capacity; Ÿ   Geopolitical conflicts, and China concept shares are disturbed by foreign capital sentiment; Changes in domestic industry regulatory environment;

     

    The emotional side is more affected by the policy and environment, and the overall amplitude of the plate is more intense. CSIC Overseas China Internet Net index throughout the year( 240 trading days, up to December 2) There were five times that the closing price of a single day rose or fell by more than 10%, and there were 24 times that the closing price exceeded 5%. The influence of overall plate sentiment is far greater than the difference at the individual stock level. Throughout the year, the stock price of the plate roughly showed a "W" trend.

    The stock prices of Internet companies have generally declined this year, and the contraction of valuation is still the main reason. Pinduoduo benefits from income And the profit side improved significantly, and Ctrip benefited from the expectation of performance recovery after the optimization of epidemic prevention and control For the few Internet leaders who have made positive profits this year.

    Although the plate November saw a strong rebound, but the valuation is still in the low range. Most Internet companies' valuations are at a low level in recent years. Taking industry leaders as an example, Tencent and Alibaba currently have forward P/E ratios of 19.8x and 10.9x, with valuation percentiles at 6% and 5% since 2018, and valuation levels are still at the historical bottom.

    OTA outperformed the market significantly. Benefiting from the optimization of epidemic prevention and control and the higher certainty of the expected rebound of performance, the OTA sector recorded positive returns, while other sectors fell to varying degrees.

    Internet industry Overall trend outlook in 2023

    2023 Internet industry segment allocation strategy

    The segments we are relatively optimistic about are: 1) O2O: directly benefited from the adjustment of epidemic prevention policy, with high certainty of performance recovery and optimal allocation of sectors; 2) E-Commerce: consumer confidence has gradually recovered, the cost performance advantage is still prominent, and live broadcast e-commerce has seized market share; 3) Online video: continue to reduce costs and increase efficiency, short videos accelerate the layout of diversified businesses, and pay attention to the progress of video number commercialization; 4) Game: The release of version numbers tends to be normalized, and going to sea is a long-term drive; 5) SaaS: continue to focus on the domestic alternative concept, which is suitable for long-term layout.

    Core viewpoints

    In general, the expectation of industry fundamentals repair has gradually increased, or at the same time, it will drive the value based on performance improvement Revaluation. With the optimization of epidemic prevention and control policies and the recovery of macro-economy, Internet companies The performance in 2023 may gradually recover, but the recovery progress still depends on the epidemic prevention and control policy. We expect that the prospects for the second half of the year will be more clear. In particular, under the low base of the overall downturn of the industry in 2022, the income growth in 2023 may have a relatively good performance. At present, the industry risk is basically released, and the overall valuation is still low. It is recommended to arrange. According to the recovery order of e-commerce, advertising and games, the C end consumption recovery (pan e-commerce) or the B end advertising and enterprise services, the game business is relatively limited. Cost reduction and efficiency increase may continue, but the intensity may be weaker than that in 2022. The increase in revenue may offset the recovery of sales rate to some extent. In the short term, especially in the context of the rapid repair of the industry's overall valuation, the value stocks or the underlying stocks that exceed the price drop may rise more rapidly in a short period of time in the case of sudden favorable policies. From the perspective of medium and long term or the whole year, the company's fundamentals and performance growth are still the main driving force for the long-term growth of the company's share price. In addition, we believe that more Internet companies will choose dual listing in Hong Kong. If they can meet the relevant requirements and enter the Hong Kong Stock Connect, it will help to improve liquidity.

    How to view short-term performance catalyst?

    We believe that the biggest catalyst for Internet share prices is the adjustment and optimization of domestic epidemic prevention and control policies to And the macroeconomic recovery expected to improve. Especially entering Since December 2022, policies around the country have been continuously optimized, which has become the main driving force for a new round of growth in the sector. The O2O industry, especially the online tourism industry, is a direct beneficiary of the optimization of epidemic prevention policies. As production and life gradually return to normal, residents' consumption capacity is expected to gradually recover. However, the biggest risk factor in 2021 - industry regulation has gradually come to an end. The government has continuously released favorable policies in the first half of the year, giving positive signals to support the healthy development of the platform economy, and the biggest uncertainty in the industry is expected to be eliminated. In addition, for the risk of China Concept Shares, on August 26, 2022, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the Ministry of Finance and the Public Company Accounting Oversight Board (PCAOB) signed an audit supervision cooperation agreement, which clearly agreed that the two parties should cooperate with relevant accounting firms to carry out regulatory inspection and investigation activities, forming a cooperation framework that conforms to the laws and regulatory requirements of both parties, It is an important step taken by the regulatory authorities of China and the United States in addressing the common concern of audit supervision cooperation.

    Resuscitation sequence

    Against the background of continuous optimization of epidemic prevention and control policies and improvement of macroeconomic recovery expectations The recovery progress may be different from that of the business model, according to the three business models of e-commerce, advertising and games Look, C end consumption recovery (pan e-commerce) or ahead of B end advertising and enterprise services, game business is relatively limited by this impact. E-commerce - E-commerce is greatly affected by the epidemic: on the one hand, offline logistics supply chain is interrupted due to the impact of the epidemic; On the other hand, residents' willingness to consume has decreased, especially in the optional consumer goods. We expect that after the alleviation of the epidemic, the logistics system will gradually return to normal, and the e-commerce track will take the lead in warming up. Advertising - The advertising industry is a barometer of the macro economy. Influenced by the macro environment, advertisers have significantly reduced their advertising budgets, and the advertising market is under pressure. Under the background of cost reduction and efficiency increase of Internet companies, advertising and marketing expenses are strictly controlled. According to QuestMobile's 2022 China Mobile Internet Autumn Report, the scale of China's Internet advertising market in the third quarter of 2022 was 166.33 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.1%. Compared with that, the growth rate in the first quarter of 2022 was 3.9%, while that in the second quarter was 7.6% lower. With the recovery of C-end consumption intention, advertising may increase, but the recovery speed of advertising industry may be slower than e-commerce. Game - Compared with e-commerce and advertising, the game industry is relatively weak in its sensitivity to the macro-economy. As a cost-effective entertainment mode, the game industry has certain anti cyclical characteristics, and even benefits from the "housing economy" under the epidemic to some extent. The relatively independent cycle of the game depends more on the policy version, hardware technology upgrading, game play innovation and other factors.

    We expect In 2023, the cost reduction and efficiency increase of Internet companies may be weakened, and the business growth will be promoted again, and the revenue and profitability are expected to develop in a balanced way. Due to the impact of the macro environment, Internet companies will generally open the "winter" mode in 2022. Under the increasingly difficult environment of "open source", "throttling", that is, cost reduction and efficiency increase, will become the default choice of Internet companies. Internet enterprises strictly control costs, especially sales expenses used for user recruitment subsidies. In addition, they also gradually shrink their strategic layout outside the main business and move closer to the core business, so as to ensure the continuous operation of the company. With the improvement of the macro-economy, we expect that the cost reduction and efficiency increase of Internet companies may be weakened next year. The most difficult moment has passed, and the sales expenses may increase to a certain extent, re promoting the growth of business or revenue.

     

    3Q22 Performance of Major Internet Companies

    Among the leading Internet companies, Pinduoduo's performance was unparalleled, and its revenue and profit both exceeded the market forecast Period; The growth rate of Meituan's revenue is second to that of other companies, which still maintains a high growth rate, while the profit side has also improved significantly; old brand internet BAT is relatively weak due to macro impact.

    How to see the medium and long-term growth trend?

    In recent years, with the weakening of demographic dividend, the Internet, especially mobile Internet, has passed the high speed In the golden age of development, the growth rate of industry income tends to slow down. But we believe that China's Internet industry still exists The growth space is mainly based on the following aspects:

    1. The demographic dividend fades, but the per capita value has room for improvement

    The medium and long-term growth of the Internet industry will come from ARPU promotion. With the gradual peak of users, Internet enterprises will pay more attention to the in-depth mining of old users, improve the retention rate, consumption frequency or member prices, and thus promote the continuous growth of income. Taking e-commerce as an example, future growth will rely more on the increase of consumption frequency. On the one hand, with the "Generation Z" entering the society, the consumption capacity has gradually improved, which will further drive the increase of online shopping frequency; On the other hand, silver haired people are more and more accustomed to online shopping for daily necessities. From the perspective of goods, at present, the online penetration rate of physical goods in China is about 25%, and the proportion of online sales channels of categories such as fresh food is still low, less than 10%, so there is still much room for improvement.

     

    2. Go to sea to find new demographic dividend and broader market

    Although Chinese Internet companies have been mentioned for many years, 2022 can be regarded as a year of comprehensive going to sea, mainly because: on the one hand, many Chinese Internet sub industries have entered a relatively mature stage, with increasingly fierce competition, and overseas emerging markets have become the next Internet value depression; On the other hand, the tightening of industry supervision has also accelerated the process of Chinese Internet companies going to sea. In addition, the success of Tiktok, Mikayou's "God" and Shein in the fields of short video, games and cross-border e-commerce has also proved the feasibility of Chinese Internet companies going to sea. We believe that sea going will still be one of the main trends of China's Internet industry in the next few years to find new growth points: 1) the sea going track will be more diversified, gradually extending from the original tool based APP edge track to more mainstream tracks such as e-commerce, entertainment and even social networking; 2) The sea going area is more extensive. Although most Chinese Internet companies still prefer Southeast Asia as their first choice for sea going, there are also many companies making efforts in Latin America, the Middle East and even the more mature European and American markets, and the global competitiveness of Chinese Internet companies is gradually recognized. Meituan tested the water delivery business in Hong Kong, Pinduoduo launched cross-border e-commerce Temu in North America, and Chinese Internet giants are trying to explore the second growth curve in overseas markets.

    3. Technological upgrading and innovation to promote the continuous evolution of the industry

    AIGC (Artificial Intelligence Automatically Generates Content) may usher in explosive growth. With the continuous upgrading of AI technology, it will also continue to affect and change the way the Internet obtains information and produces content. AIGC is currently mainly used in the fields of text, image, video, audio and virtual human. After the AI painting boom, AI Q&A became popular again. Recently, ChatGPT, a new chat robot model released by OpenAI, has quickly become popular because of its high-quality content, which covers poetry writing, code checking and suggestions, and is no less popular than AlphaGo. On December 5, ChatGPT was launched less than a week ago and has reached millions of users. ChatGPT's core advantages lie in its natural language understanding ability, rich knowledge reserves and strong learning ability, which greatly improves the interactive experience. ChatGPT is essentially a chat robot software based on artificial intelligence technology. It can carry out intelligent chat conversations with users, help users solve problems in daily life, and provide users with rich information and services. ChatGPT architecture mainly includes three parts: natural language processing module, knowledge base module and learning module. The natural language processing module is the core part of ChatGPT, which is mainly responsible for understanding the user's speech expression, and inferring the user's needs according to the user's context and scenario, so as to generate appropriate response content. The knowledge base module is an auxiliary part of ChatGPT. It is mainly responsible for storing a large amount of knowledge information, including common sense problems in daily life, news information, entertainment information, etc., and can provide rich information services according to user needs. The learning module is an important part of ChatGPT. It is mainly responsible for continuously learning the user's language expression and communication habits, and building a dialogue model based on it, so as to constantly optimize its own dialogue ability. Compared with traditional search engines or Siri, on the one hand, ChatGPT can contact the context to achieve continuous and complete dialogue; On the other hand, ChatGPT's answers are more logical, comprehensive and professional. Of course, due to the relatively limited training samples, there is still much room for improvement in the accuracy and timeliness of knowledge in some specific areas of ChatGPT.

    In addition, Web 3.0 also represents the direction of the exploration of the new generation Internet. It is based on the concept of de trust, disintermediation and digital capitalization, with blockchain as the underlying key technology, and digital production and consumption as the main economic form. Web1.0 is "readable", Web2.0 is "readable+writable", while Web3.0 will be "readable+writable+owned", emphasizing "digital capitalization" and "decentralization". In particular, blockchain technology has greatly promoted the development of Web3.0. As an advanced data storage method, it can achieve transparent information sharing. Its decentralization and immutability solve the trust problem in interaction, help create a stable and transparent business environment, and improve economic operation efficiency. To be precise, Web3.0 is not an industry, but represents a model, which can be combined with various traditional industries to derive "Web3.0+", thus realizing commercial landing. Web3.0 is still in the exploratory stage, and its long-term value is still worth looking forward to.

    Internet industry Industry Segmentation Outlook in 2023

    O2O: High recovery certainty, optimal plate allocation

    2023 Outlook

    At present, offline economic activities are still affected by the epidemic in the short term, but with the optimization and adjustment of epidemic prevention policies, The recovery trend of offline activities is better. In 2023, O2O's performance growth is expected to rebound from a low base, with high recovery certainty, but the recovery progress still depends on epidemic prevention and control and consumption recovery: there is still room for improvement in catering takeout, and instant retail remains high growth; The pattern of community group buying is stable, and the profit and loss balance may be achieved in 2023; Online travel demand is strong, and recovery is expected to be more clear in the second half of next year.

    Review of 2022

    Meituan's share price performance is relatively weak, year to date( December 5) fell 23% accumulatively, but the fundamentals remained stable; With the continuous optimization of epidemic prevention and control, the market expects that the online travel business will recover rapidly. Since the beginning of the year, the stock prices of Ctrip and Tongcheng Travel have risen to 31% and 17% respectively, which is one of the few sub sectors with outstanding performance in the Internet industry.

     

    Food and beverage delivery still has room for improvement, and non food and beverage delivery maintains a rapid growth

    1. There is still room for improvement in catering takeout

    According to our channel research data( October 2022), from the perspective of merchants, the penetration rate of food and beverage delivery in high-end cities is about 55%, and that in low-end cities is about 35%. There is still much room for improvement in the future. On the one hand, it comes from the increase of merchant coverage: newly added snacks, snacks, desserts and drinks will basically choose online takeaway platforms; Secondly, the increase of chain rate will also promote the increase of takeout penetration. At present, the chain rate of catering in China is about 17%, which is lower than that in the United States, which is 60%+. On the other hand, it comes from the increase of consumption frequency: if we take out 2.1 times a month per capita in China, the proportion of takeout is only 2%. It is expected that afternoon tea, lunch and dinner will have a great room for improvement.

    2. Flash purchase business or maintain rapid growth

    Meituan flash purchase is positioned to reach supermarkets in an hour, and the main force in the future will still be convenient in supermarkets, accounting for the proportion of orders 40-45%. In addition, Meituan buys 20% medicine, 16-17% flower cake, and 10% chain stores and stores. Compared with community group buying, flash buying, an instant retail mode, will be more popular in first tier and second tier cities, with high unit price and high frequency, and it is dominated by young users, who pay more attention to service experience and timeliness. In terms of competition pattern, compared with JD, Meituan has a wide range of categories, with an average daily order volume of about 4.6 million to 4.7 million, but the customer price is relatively low, with flash purchase orders of about 70 yuan, more like non catering takeout. JD's order volume is less than that of Meituan, and the customer price is high, 180-190 yuan, which is more like e-commerce mode. JD's advantage in instant retail lies in its coverage of supermarkets. About 80% of the leading chain stores in China have cooperation with JD, and some users of JD are hoarding demand.

     

    The pattern of community group buying is stable, In 2023, the deficit may turn around

    Scale expansion is no longer the focus of community group buying industry, but more emphasis on cost reduction and efficiency increase. According to our channel From the perspective of company performance assessment, the original market share and unit volume have gradually changed to more Focus on cost control, performance rate and consumer experience. This is mainly because the community group purchase has been issued To a certain extent, in addition, under the current macro environment, enterprises can hardly bear large losses and will be profitable in the future Profit depends on optimizing procurement channels to improve gross profit. We expect that In 2023, the community group purchase business may turn losses. In addition, we expect the industry to grow by about 50% this year, slowing down from the geometric growth before. However, as a cost-effective channel, community group buying will still be favored by consumers, especially when the market sinks and the economy is depressed. We believe that it will continue to grow by 30%+in the next two to three years. In terms of competition, the pattern of Pinduoduo and Meituan might be relatively stable, with Pinduoduo slightly ahead and Meituan in a state of shrinking defense. The main entrance of community group buying is fresh food. Due to the huge market scale, it is not expected that the group buying will be dominated in the future. In addition, due to their slightly different focus areas, community e-commerce will not have too much direct competition.

    Tourism demand is strong, directly benefiting from the optimization of epidemic policy

    The optimization of epidemic policy will directly benefit online tourism, which may usher in a comprehensive recovery. Affected repeatedly by the epidemic, The tourism industry suffered another setback this year. On the whole, low tier cities are relatively less affected, while high tier cities Travel demand is relatively affected. Transport business is more affected than hotel accommodation business, mainly because For tourism, local travel and peripheral travel are still the main travel. Since the epidemic, tourism demand has been suppressed for a long time, With the continuous optimization and adjustment of recent epidemic prevention and control policies, online tourism may experience three years The "cold winter" ushers in a comprehensive recovery, and the restrictions on cross provincial and cross-border travel may be gradually lifted. Tourism demand is strong. In 2022, favorable policies were successively introduced: on June 28, the Comprehensive Team of the Joint Epidemic Prevention and Control Mechanism of the State Council published the Prevention and Control Plan for New Coronavirus Pneumonia (Ninth Edition), proposing to adjust the isolation and control time of secret contacts and entry personnel from "14 days of centralized isolation+7 days of home monitoring" to "7+3". On June 29, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced the cancellation of the "star" mark on the communication travel card, which will also accelerate the release of domestic travel demand. The big data of the same trip shows that within half an hour of the cancellation of the "star" message, the search volume of the platform ticket increased by 180% compared with the same period the day before yesterday, and the search volume of the hotel increased by 220% compared with the same period the day before yesterday. On November 11, the "20" measures for epidemic optimization further emphasized precise prevention and control, adjusted "7+3" to "5+3", and canceled the circuit breaker mechanism for inbound flights. On December 1, it was reported that some regions in Guangzhou had recently released an announcement to lift the temporary control zone. After the news was released, a large number of tourists landed on the same journey travel platform to search for travel products departing from Guangzhou. As of 15:00 that afternoon, the search volume of outbound air tickets in Guangzhou had quadrupled compared with the same period the day before yesterday, and the number of air ticket orders had increased by 126% compared with the period the day before yesterday. The search volume of train tickets departing from Guangzhou rose by more than 300%.

    The industrial impact of byte beating layout of local life business

    On August 19, Diaoyin and Ezema announced their cooperation to expand local life business. However, according to our research, the effect is average at present. The business impact of Dithering Home is still limited, mainly due to the high industrial barriers of instant demand. Food and beverage takeout requires high performance requirements, and short videos are mostly based on interest. In the case of insufficient business coverage, it is not easy to meet the triple conditions that users can find takeout when they swipe videos, and businesses are still around. The performance of Dithering to Store business is relatively good, which may have a certain impact on the industry. Ditto focuses on low price routes, and seeks experts to bring goods, turning short videos into interesting e-commerce, while Meituan Reviews are more purposeful. The effect of nationwide chain stores and online celebrity stores on Tiaoyin is relatively good, turning local life services into local life e-commerce, which can sell group purchase coupons, and it is faster for businesses to return blood. However, this mode is very dependent on agents. At present, the general feedback of merchants is that although the traffic of dithering is large, the conversion rate is relatively low.

    E-commerce: consumer confidence has gradually recovered, and the cost performance advantage is still prominent

    2023 Outlook

    Although the overall consumption growth slowed down, online consumption still maintained a good growth, with the continuous epidemic prevention and control policies Optimization and improvement of macroeconomic recovery expectations are expected, and consumer confidence is also expected to recover; Live broadcast e-commerce or Maintain a strong growth momentum and continue to share the e-commerce market; The price advantage of e-commerce platform will be more prominent.

    Review of 2022

    Alibaba, as the leader of e-commerce industry, is under multiple pressures such as macro-economy, industry supervision and competition pattern, The stock price trend of the whole year was relatively weak, as of On December 2, the cumulative decline was 24%; JD's share price trend is similar to that of Alibaba, down 16%; Pinduoduo's share price in the first half of the year was in line with the trend of the industry, but in the second half of the year, it achieved a sharp rise in share price by virtue of two consecutive quarters of financial reports that exceeded market expectations, becoming the best performing company in the e-commerce industry and even in the head of the Internet.

     

    The proportion of online consumption further increased. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, From January to October 2022, the total retail sales of social consumer goods increased by 0.6% year on year, showing a relatively weak performance. However, the online retail sales of physical goods increased by 7.2%, recording a sustained growth trend since May, and the proportion of online economy further increased to 26.2%, a record high.

    Structural change under stock competition: China's retail e-commerce has gradually increased after nearly two decades of development As quantity enters the era of stock, we expect to achieve steady growth in the future. The core elements of e-commerce include: people Goods and market, and the essence of industry iteration is also the reconstruction around three elements: sinking user competition, near field The rise of e-commerce and channel diversification under decentralization are three major themes of China's e-commerce industry:

    from From the perspective of "people", in the short term, the market competition will sink, and medium - and long-term growth will rely more on the increase of consumption frequency. Although the dividend of the sinking market has weakened, it is still the main user increment;

    from From the perspective of "goods", the near field e-commerce has brought incremental growth to the industry, and community group buying and instant retail business has risen rapidly. In 2021, the online penetration rate of physical commodities in China will be about 25%. From the perspective of category breakdown, the "online" speed of fresh food is far behind other categories, less than 10%, due to its vulnerability. With the improvement of supply chain infrastructure, there is still much room for penetration to increase in the future;

    And from From the perspective of "market", decentralization promotes channel diversification and intensifies industry competition. Private domain e-commerce and live broadcast goods delivery grew rapidly, breaking the original competitive pattern of traditional e-commerce. The high growth of live video with goods, sharing the traditional e-commerce market, helped to shuffle the cards. However, the impact of live video with goods on specialty e-commerce is more obvious, becoming one of the channels for brand merchants to clear inventory; The change of the head anchor has greatly affected the game of the trading volume of goods on each platform.

    Live broadcast with goods continues to share the e-commerce market. In the past few years, China's live broadcast e-commerce industry has developed rapidly The scale has reached the trillion level, becoming one of the important marketing channels in the e-commerce industry. According to Ai Media data, In 2021, the size of China's live broadcast e-commerce market will be 1.2 trillion yuan, up 25% year on year. It is expected that the market size will exceed 2 trillion yuan in 2025.

     

    Structured consumption is downgraded, and the price performance ratio of goods is valued. The uncertainty and economy of consumers in the current external world When the growth rate slows down, they tend to purchase consumer goods that can make people happy for a short time but are not expensive. In order to deal with future uncertainty, people's consumption tends to be rational, showing structural consumption degradation Value for money. Pinduoduo is famous for its low price, and its income presents Accelerate the growth trend. We believe that the structural consumption degradation will continue in the future The price advantage is more prominent.

    Pan video: continue to reduce costs and increase efficiency, and short video accelerates the penetration of multiple services

    2023 Outlook

    Cost reduction and efficiency increase have achieved initial results, and profit margin is expected to continue to improve. The weak advertising market makes It is under pressure in the short term. We are still optimistic about the growth trend of the short video track in the user traffic side, and rely on the traffic Advantages accelerate the penetration into other businesses.

    Review of 2022

    In the second quarter of Fasthand, it realized profits after domestic business adjustment in advance, and the stock price performance was relatively good, year to date down fall 12%, better than the market. IQIYI has made profits for the third quarter in a row, but affected by the advertising market, the income side is under pressure, and the stock price has fallen by 31%; Bilibili is still in the midst of losses, and the stock price realization is relatively weak, with a cumulative decline of 58%.

     

    The traffic is still growing at a high speed. Although the overall Internet traffic dividend fades, short and medium video tracks are active The degree and flow rate still show a rapid growth trend, and the scale of fast hand and billbillbillbillbillbillbillbillbillbillbillbillbillbillbillbillbillbillbillbillbillbillbillbillbillbillbillbillbillbillbillbillbillbillbillbillbillbillbillbillbillbillbillbillbillbillbillbillbillbillbillbillbillbillbillbillbillbillbillbill Digit growth.

    The overall weakness of the advertising business is the biggest pressure on short videos. Advertising cashing is an important cashing party of video platform For one thing, due to the overall pressure of advertising business, the growth rate of short video advertising revenue will also slow down. but Due to its traffic advantage, we expect that with the overall recovery of the advertising business, the short video advertising revenue will recover High growth and continued to seize market share.

    The video number may become the largest variable in the industry. In July 2022, the video number will launch information stream advertising to accelerate the commercialization process. The activity of WeChat video accounts continued to increase. In the second quarter, the total user duration had exceeded 80% of the total duration of the circle of friends, and the total broadcast volume had increased by more than 200% year on year. With the social advantage of WeChat, we believe that the number of video number users is expected to rise from behind, but the user duration still needs to be improved in terms of content adequacy and algorithm. In addition, relying on the WeChat ecosystem, video accounts can also work with small programs and public accounts. Video accounts also contain a lot of cash space, which is expected to bring incremental growth to the industry.

    Game: The release of version number tends to be normalized, and going to sea is a long-term drive

    2023 Outlook

    The distribution of game version numbers has gradually become normalized, and next year may benefit from the recovery of positive growth from low base numbers; Due to the industry Against the wind, the importance of the game company's research and operation ability is more prominent. We maintain a bias towards the head game manufacturers OK.

     

    Review of 2022

    Tencent and NetEase share prices have similar performance, falling respectively 33% and 30%, the game version number is one of the main constraints, and the number of approved versions in the first 11 months is only 1 and 2 respectively.

    Affected by the shrinking version number and offline economic recovery, The revenue of the game industry is expected to decline in 2022. According to Gamma data, the actual sales revenue of China's game market in the first three quarters of 2022 was 207.5 billion yuan, down 5.7% year on year, mainly due to the sharp contraction of the game version number and offline economic recovery; The overseas revenue of China's self-developed games was 4.55 billion US dollars, down 0.5% year on year. The revenue of sea going games declined, mainly due to the recovery of economic activities after the epidemic, which reduced the consumption of users' games.

    The number of game version numbers is shrinking, and the distribution of version numbers is inclined to small and medium-sized manufacturers. since Since the release of the version was resumed in April 2022, a total of 384 games had been approved by the end of November, of which 5 had not been released for 5 months, and the number of releases has shrunk significantly again. The number of each batch of version numbers in recent months is about 70. According to this trend, the number of game version numbers in 2022 may be about 450, which may be 40% lower than the contraction of 46% in 2021. The distribution of game version numbers is more inclined to small and medium-sized manufacturers. As of the end of November, Tencent and NetEase had only one and two versions approved this year, and the number of other large manufacturers' versions was also mostly in the low and middle single digits. From the perspective of proportion, the proportion of small and medium-sized manufacturers obtaining version numbers has increased.

     

    Sailing to sea has become a must for game manufacturers. The reduction of the number of domestic games will affect the product release rhythm of game companies As a result, most game manufacturers focus on overseas markets Future focus. The game going to sea has basically become a must for game manufacturers. For example, Tencent and NetEase have said that they have not To vigorously develop overseas game business, aiming to increase the proportion of overseas game revenue to 50%, there is still much room for improvement.

    The margin of public opinion has improved, and the industry is expected to recover next year. With the strong supervision in recent years, The game industry has basically achieved standardized development, and the public opinion on the game industry has marginally improved Trend, start to pay attention to the positive value brought by the game industry, which we believe will help the game industry Long term healthy growth. Due to the low base effect this year, we expect that the revenue of the game industry will be able to It has rebounded. It is suggested to pay attention to head game manufacturers in the headwind of the industry. The distribution of game version numbers has been tightened, making game manufacturers Shrink the R&D production line, eliminate low-quality games, emphasize the refinement of games, and pay more attention to the R&D of game products Success rate. We believe that the importance of game manufacturers' R&D capability will More prominent; At the same time, the stock competition in the industry is intensifying, and strong operation capability is also the key to success; In addition, due to the uncertainty of game version number acquisition, the powerful existing game product matrix will provide For defensive purposes.

    SaaS: continue to focus on domestic alternatives, suitable for long-term layout

    2023 Outlook

    The uncertainty of the macro environment is still the biggest constraint that affects the demand of the industry in the short term. We are optimistic about the industry next year The demand gradually recovers, but The recovery progress of To B enterprise services may be slower than that of To C business; In the long run, in the context of digital transformation, the growth potential of the SaaS industry is still worth looking forward to. The current valuation is close to the bottom, suitable for long-term layout;

    Review of 2022

    because The overvalued attribute of the SaaS industry has suffered more severe valuation contraction in the downward period of the sector, with UFIDA Kingdee down about 35% and Kingsoft software down 21%.

     

    The valuation continues to repair, and the leading US stock market is still the valuation anchor. In the long run, in the context of digital transformation Next, The growth potential of the SaaS industry is still worth looking forward to, and the current valuation is still in the low range, suitable for long-term layout. There is still a certain gap between Chinese SaaS enterprises and American SaaS leaders, and there is huge room for growth in the future. This is mainly due to the environmental differences between the domestic and American ToB markets, which are at different stages of development. The domestic To B business, especially the SaaS track, is still in the early stage of market cultivation. In particular, there is still much room for improvement in the standardization of different customer processes. In addition to SaaS products, the corresponding value-added services are also particularly important. In terms of valuation, the valuation of China's SaaS companies will still be anchored by the leading US stocks. In the first half of this year, affected by the expectation of liquidity contraction and the decline of digital "dividends" brought by the epidemic, the SaaS sector of the US stock market experienced a sharp correction, with a decline of more than 50% from the peak, and relatively stabilized in the second half of this year.

     

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  •  IDC Internet Data Center Research Report in 2023
    IDC Internet Data Center Research Report in 2023
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