Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe easily defeated former Defense Minister Shigeru Ishikawa on the 20th to win the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) head election, achieving "Sanlianzhuang", which is expected to become the longest serving Prime Minister in Japanese history.
Abe announced that he would amend the Peace Constitution and write it into the "Self Defense Forces Clause" before leaving office. Some analysts pointed out that the amendment of the Constitution still faces great resistance and is full of political risks.
[Easy win]
On the afternoon of the 20th, the election of the leader of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) held a vote for its members of parliament, and the votes were counted at the same time as the local votes. Local votes come from local councillors, ordinary party members and "party friends", namely registered supporters.
This election is another duel between Abe and the former Liberal Democratic Party Secretary General Shi Po. Abe won 329 votes out of 405 parliamentary votes and 224 votes out of 405 local votes, a total of 553 votes, with a winning rate of about 70%, which was an overwhelming victory. As a result of his successful re-election as the leader of the ruling party, Abe continued to serve as Prime Minister.
After winning the election, Abe said: "Now, the battle is over. Let's work together to build a new Japan."
Abe's new three-year term of office expires in September 2021 and he cannot be re elected. According to Kyodo News Agency, if the class is not "dismissed" halfway, Abe's cumulative number of days as prime minister will catch up with Japan's prime minister, Katsura, who has served the most days in history in November 2019. The latter served as Prime Minister for three times in the early 20th century. By April 2021, Abe is expected to become Japan's longest running prime minister.
Abe, 63 years old, took office as the party leader and prime minister for the first time in September 2006, and resigned nearly a year later for health reasons. In September 2012, with the support of members of the Congress, Abe defeated Ishikawa and became the party leader again. In December of the same year, he led the Liberal Democratic Party to win the election of the House of Representatives of the National Assembly and regain power. In September 2015, the first term of Abe's party expired, and no one in the party challenged him, so he was re elected without voting.
[Starting to amend the Constitution]
In his victory speech, Abe said that he was determined to "summarize" Japan's diplomacy since the end of the Second World War in his last term of office to ensure national peace.
"Together with all of you, I will begin to revise the Constitution." Kyodo News reported that in order to revise the Peace Constitution implemented in 1947 during his term of office, Abe intended to submit the draft of the LDP constitutional amendment to the interim parliament opened in the autumn. The constitutional amendment has been the aspiration of the Liberal Democratic Party for decades since its founding in 1955, but it has never been realized.
Abe advocates retaining the first and second paragraphs of Article 9 of the Peace Constitution, namely, "abandoning war" and "not maintaining land, sea, air force and other fighting forces, and not recognizing the country's right to engage in war", but including the existence of self-defence forces, including their status and functions. In his speech before the election, he said: "It is time to write down the Self Defense Forces in the Constitution and protect Japan's peace and independence."
Agence France Presse said that any change to Article 9 of the Constitution is very sensitive in Japan. Even if Abe can push Congress to pass the constitutional amendment, a referendum will have to be held. Naruto Uchiyama, a political science professor at the University of Tokyo, said that if the referendum rejected the amendment, it could lead to political unrest like the British "Brexit" referendum that led to the resignation of the Prime Minister.
Many public opinion surveys show that most Japanese people believe that the amendment of the Constitution is far from an urgent matter, and it is much more important to deal with the problem of fewer children and boost the economy than the amendment of the Constitution.
[Economic worries]
Abe obtained about 80% of the parliamentary votes in the party head election, but only 55% of the local votes were obtained. Some analysts believe that local votes can more accurately reflect the general public opinion of Japan than parliamentary votes. Abe's relative weakness in local votes means that he must pay more attention to listen to the voice of the people when governing.
After winning the election on the 20th, Shinzo Abe met with his ruling partner and leader of the Komeito party, Nazu Yamaguchi, at the Capitol building, and expressed his intention to implement the high-level personnel adjustment and cabinet reorganization of the Liberal Democratic Party after attending the United Nations General Assembly in New York, the United States later this month. People from the Liberal Democratic Party disclosed that Abe planned to reorganize the cabinet and adjust the leadership of the Liberal Democratic Party on October 1, and is coordinating on this.
It is expected that Taro Aso, the current Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance, will remain in office. As an old ally of Abe, Aso is a strong supporter of Abenomics.
In his victory speech, Abe acknowledged that there are worries about the economic prospects in China. He said that he intended to introduce "bold" stimulus measures to mitigate the impact of the expected rise in the consumption tax rate in October next year.
In recent years, thanks to the ultra loose monetary policy of the Central Bank of Japan and the substantial increase of government public spending advocated by Abenomics, the weakening of the yen has benefited exports, and Japan's economy has grown slowly in the past few years. However, economic analysts warn that the US trade policy may bring major risks to the Japanese economy, which has not yet come out of perennial deflation.
During his visit to New York to attend the UN General Assembly, Abe will meet with US President Donald Trump. Despite Abe's efforts to manage their personal relationship, the Japan US trade dispute is still a difficult problem. (Hu Ruoyu)
