On April 16, the data of China's economy in the first quarter of this year was released: the gross domestic product (GDP) was 29629.9 billion yuan, up 5.3% year on year. In the first quarter of this year, new achievements were made in China's high-quality development, and the national economy continued to pick up and make a good start. This report card of raising morale breaks the murmur of singing down China again.
Since this year, some people in the West have been advocating a new round of arguments to weaken China's economy. They may take the opportunity of individual data fluctuations to play up the so-called "weak recovery of China's consumption" and "loss of potential of China's consumption", or discredit the trend of China's economy, and make up the theory of "the peak of China's rise" and "the peak of China's economy". These negative comments are vulnerable to the facts, and cannot hinder China's firm forward development.
Looking at the macro indicators, China's economy has recovered significantly. Macro data is one of the most direct perspectives to observe a country's economic development. In the face of multiple difficulties and challenges such as insufficient growth momentum of the world economy and weak domestic social expectations, China's economy grew 5.3% in the first quarter of this year, which is a reflection of its strength. Horizontally, this growth rate is in the forefront of major economies in the world, and China is still an important engine of world economic growth; Vertically, the growth rate was 5.2% higher than that of the whole year of last year, and the total economic volume was 1.6% higher than that of the fourth quarter of last year. The recovery trend of the sub indicators is also obvious. The growth rate of added value of industries above designated size has increased by 3.1 percentage points over the same period last year, the growth rate of fixed asset investment has increased by 1.5 percentage points over the same period last year, and the growth rate of import and export has reached a new high since six quarters. The macroeconomic team of Goldman Sachs Research Department recently released a report saying that the overall economic data since this year has been better than expected, showing the resilience of China's economy.
Looking at the driving force of development, China's economy has improved in quality and vitality. What does the economic recovery depend on? Rely on the continuously enhanced development momentum. At present, China's market is improving and upgrading, its industries are moving forward, and its economy is bursting with vitality. From the popularity of "Erbin" ice and snow tour to the innovation of "trendy goods" made in China, and then to smart home, outdoor equipment and other products becoming the "new favorite" of consumption, new consumption growth points emerged, promoting the continuous recovery of the consumer market. In the first quarter of this year, the total retail sales of consumer goods in society increased by 4.7%, exceeded 12 trillion yuan, and the retail sales of services achieved double-digit growth, The contribution rate of final consumption to economic growth reached 73.7%. From demand to supply, the new industry is gaining momentum. At sea, the first domestic large cruise ship "Aida Mordor" launched its first commercial voyage; On land, the first independently developed hydrogen energy city train successfully reached the speed for trial run; In the air, the self-developed AG60E electric aircraft achieved its first flight. Selchuk Cholakolu, director of Turkey Asia Pacific Research Center, believes that China's economy is moving towards a more mature stage of development. With the continuous improvement of market consumption capacity and scientific and technological productivity, China will play a greater role in the global economy.
Looking at the future situation, China's economy is promising. China's GDP in 2023 has more than doubled compared with that in 2013. In the past 10 years, China has been the largest engine driving world economic growth. Looking ahead, China's economic potential is still there. In the short term, the manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI), the leading economic indicator, rose to 50.8% in March. Bloomberg News website pointed out that after China's PMI hit the highest value in a year, investors' views on the world's second largest economy have become more optimistic; Goldman Sachs and Citigroup recently raised their expectations for China's economy this year by 0.2 and 0.4 percentage points respectively. In the long run, China's new advantages for development have accelerated to take shape, and the basic trend of economic recovery and long-term improvement has not changed. The US Foreign Affairs magazine recently published a commentary saying that the so-called "China is the top" underestimates China's economic resilience. In the next few years, China's economic growth may be twice that of the US, and the contribution of China's economy to world economic growth is expected to remain around 1/3.
In the eyes of the world, China's economic giant is riding the wind and waves and continuing to move forward.
(The author is a commentator of People's Daily Overseas Edition)
