CITIC Securities (600030): comprehensive advantages continue to improve, and the annual performance is relatively stable
The annual performance was relatively stable. The company released the performance express for 2022, and the annual operating revenue in 2022 was RMB 65533 million, a year-on-year decrease of 14.4%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 21.121 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.6%; In Q4, the operating revenue of the single quarter was 15.712 billion yuan, down 16.0% year on year and up 5.2% month on month; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 4.553 billion yuan, down 16.5% year on year and 15.2% month on month.
The leverage level declined slightly, with an annualized ROE (weighted) of 8.59%. 2022Q4 net assets attributable to the parent company are 252.985 billion yuan,+21.0% year on year; Total assets were 1.31 trillion yuan, up 2.5% year on year.
In 2022, ROE (weighted) will be 8.59%, down 3.48pct from the previous year.
Q4 market trading dropped, and the bond market declined more than expected under the net worth. 1. Market transaction cooling:
The average daily turnover of 2022Q4A shares was 834.5 billion yuan, - 23% year-on-year. The newly issued shares of public funds reached 316.5 billion, - 47% year on year. The balance of financing and financing was 1540.4 billion yuan, - 16% year-on-year. 2. The investment banking business has been developing normally, with Q4 declining year on year, and CITIC's market share has continued to increase throughout the year. According to Wind data, the annual A-share IPO scale in 2022 will be 586.9 billion yuan,+8.2% year-on-year; In the fourth quarter, A-share IPO scale was 101.3 billion yuan, - 40% year-on-year. In 2022, CITIC Securities will underwrite an IPO of 126 billion yuan, an increase of 16% year on year. Its IPO market share will rise from 19.9% to 21.5%, and its refinancing market share will rise from 19.7% to 20.6%. 3. In Q4, the bond market declined significantly, the net worth fluctuation increased, the financial redemption increased the selling pressure, and the adjustment of the bond market posed a great challenge to the self operation of securities firms. In 2022, the China Securities Total Bond Index rose 3.49%, down 2.16 pct year on year; Q4 fell 0.15% in a single quarter, down 1.55 pct year on year. In 2022, the CSI 300 fell by 21.63%, and rose slightly by 1.16% in Q4.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions: The capital market will deepen reform, and the comprehensive registration system will be implemented soon. In 2022, the company will complete the AH share allotment and raise 27.3 billion yuan, leading its peers in capital strength. The company will further consolidate its comprehensive advantages of institutionalization and internationalization, and is expected to continue to benefit from the wealth management era by virtue of its leading advantages in asset management and wealth management. It is estimated that the company will achieve a net profit attributable to the parent of 27.5 billion yuan and 36.2 billion yuan in 2023-2024. Taking into account the valuation hub of 1.1X-2.2XPB and the premium of leading brokers in recent years, the company will be given a valuation of 1.4XPB in 2023, with a reasonable value of 26.13 yuan per share. Considering the A/H premium factor, the corresponding reasonable value of H shares will be 21.66 Hong Kong dollars per share, maintaining the "buy" rating of A and H shares. (According to HKDCNY=0.87)
Risk tip: the market has intensified and declined, and the performance of equity investment has not met expectations; The rise of credit risk.
