CITIC Securities (600030): Outstanding leading position with strong performance flexibility
Introduction to this report:
The decline in investment income caused by market fluctuations has put pressure on the company's performance; In the context of the continuous strengthening of financial services in the real economy, the full registration system will speed up its implementation, and the company's stronger professional ability in investment banking will usher in its development beyond expectations.
Key investment points:
Maintain the rating of "overweight", and maintain the target price of 35.78 yuan/share. In 2022, the company's annual operating income/net profit attributable to the parent company will be 65533/21.121 billion yuan, -14.36%/-8.57% year-on-year; The weighted average ROE was -3.48pct to 8.59% year on year, and the performance was in line with expectations. Based on the company's latest operating performance, we lowered the company's profit forecast to RMB 1.43/1.79/2.22 (1.45/2.01/2.38 before adjustment) for 22-24 years. Considering the company's industry leading level of investment banking specialization, it is helpful to grasp the industry development opportunities under the background of strengthening the real economy of financial services, maintain the target price of 35.78 yuan/share, and maintain the "overweight" rating.
It is estimated that the decline in investment business income caused by market fluctuations is still the main reason for the company's performance pressure, and the overall performance of investment banking business is excellent. 1) The sharp decline in the net income of investment business affected by market fluctuations is expected to remain the main reason for the decline in the company's performance; 2) The company's investment banking business performed well. In 2022, the IPO underwriting amount was 125.958 billion yuan, up 16.47% year on year, and the bond underwriting amount was 1.58 trillion yuan, up 1.03% year on year, slowing down the decline of performance to some extent.
Against the background of the continuous strengthening of the real economic function of financial services, it is expected that the implementation of the comprehensive registration system will be accelerated, and the company's investment banking specialization ability will be outstanding and constantly strengthened, which is expected to seize the industry opportunities to achieve more profits than expected. 1) With the continuous strengthening of financial services for the real economy, the implementation of policies related to the comprehensive registration system reform may be accelerated, becoming an important driving force for the development of the securities industry; 2) The company's professional advantages in investment banking are obvious and are constantly consolidated. As of January 12, 2023, the IPO reserve project plans to raise more than 156.3 billion yuan, ranking first in the industry. It is expected that the company is expected to better grasp the industry development opportunities, achieve its own performance development beyond expectations, and further consolidate its leading position in the industry.
Catalyst: The function of financial services for the real economy has been continuously strengthened, and the implementation of the comprehensive registration system has been accelerated.
Risk warning: policy promotion is not as expected, and the market declines significantly
