The investment strategy of the non bank financial industry in 2021: recovery, cultivation, transformation and development
insurance industry
Taking advantage of the situation, both liabilities and assets have recovered. 1) The COVID-19 epidemic has put pressure on premiums in 2020. Listed insurance companies are actively preparing for a good start in 2021. Economic recovery, human resource stabilization and transformation are expected to boost the improvement of the debt side of the year. 2) The proportion of indemnificatory products is expected to increase in 2021, and the improvement of premium growth and value rate is expected to drive the improvement of NBV growth throughout the year. 3) The economic recovery continues, the liquidity margin tightens, and the long-term interest rate is expected to continue to rise, supporting the further repair of insurance valuation. 4) Driven by two wheels at both ends of the capital and the negative, the valuation of the sector is still low. We are optimistic about investment opportunities in the insurance sector throughout the year and maintain the industry's "optimistic" rating. Beneficial objects: China Ping An, China Taipao, Xinhua Insurance and China Life Insurance.
Risk tip: the business started better than expected; Macroeconomic recovery was blocked, and long-term interest rates fell more than expected.
Securities industry
Driven by the registration system and innovative business, ROE is expected to further rise. The margin of credit bond risk is weakened. In the short term, the cross year market of the sector is expected. Policies such as the comprehensive registration system and the introduction of long-term funds are expected to be implemented more than expected. Driven by the registration system and innovative business, the ROE of securities companies is expected to continue to rise. We expect the overall net profit of listed securities companies in 2021 to be+18.8% year on year, and the ROE is expected to reach 9.3%. The sustained economic recovery is expected to bring investment opportunities in the equity market and maintain the industry's "optimistic" rating. Recommended targets: Guojin Securities and Oriental Wealth, and beneficiary targets: Industrial Securities, CITIC Securities, Huatai Securities, China Merchants Securities, Guotai Jun'an.
The proportion of commission business increased, and the leverage ratio continued to rise. Brokerage will accelerate the transformation to wealth management. Under the comprehensive registration system, the scale of equity and bond financing will continue to expand, driving the further development of investment banking business; In terms of asset management business, securities companies are transforming to accelerate active management. The capacity of OTC derivatives has been expanded, and OTC derivatives have continued to expand. It is expected that the derivatives business will continue to grow in the future. With the loosening of the securities lending mechanism, the scale of the two financing has expanded significantly. In the future, more institutions are expected to participate in securities lending, and the scale of securities lending continues to expand.
Risk warning: policy implementation is not as expected; The COVID-19 epidemic has been repeated, the impact on the macro-economy has exceeded expectations, and the credit risk of securities business has increased.
