Recently, the State Postal Administration released the operation of the postal industry during the Spring Festival. From February 4 to February 10, the national postal industry delivered 68.87 million pieces of mail services and 52.93 million parcels. Since the beginning of the Spring Festival travel (January 21 to February 10), the volume of mail service business of the national postal industry has reached 1.289 billion pieces, an increase of 35% over the same period last year, and 1.61 billion pieces of parcels have been delivered, an increase of 33% over the same period last year. The Spring Festival holiday is the off-season for express service. All major express companies have started the non-stop Spring Festival operation mode. Through timely regulation and control of business volume, scientific adjustment of transport capacity, reasonable arrangement of staff shift duty and other measures, the smooth, safe and stable operation of the service network has been achieved.

Analysts pointed out that online shopping has always been an important support for express delivery business. During the Spring Festival this year, the order data of major e-commerce platforms continued to grow. In addition, China Post, SF Express, JD Logistics and other express companies used to "not close" during the period, so the industry as a whole showed a situation of "not light in the off-season". In terms of price, it is expected that the industry unit price level will continue to show a downward trend in 2019, especially the business in the same city and central region, which is mainly related to the increase in the proportion of e-commerce express delivery; In 2019, the business volume may grow faster than expected, and the time cost of price war will increase; The price sensitivity of customers has decreased, and the marginal effect of price war has weakened. From the perspective of the industry competition trend, the increase in the concentration of the express industry indicates that the share of the second and third tier express enterprises is gradually shifting to the first tier leading express enterprises, while the first tier express enterprises will also further differentiate due to the differences in cost control and service quality, and the industry share will further concentrate to the smaller and larger number of leading enterprises.

According to the statistics of the same flush, the recent good business performance of the industry has also driven the post festival upward movement of the express concept sector. Since February 11, the overall sector has risen 7.59%, significantly outperforming the market over the same period (the cumulative increase during the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index period was 5.25%). The 11 constituent stocks in the sector have risen during the period. Oriental Jiasheng (14.90%), Deppon Shares (14.59%) Shanghai Yashi (13.84%), Yuntu Holdings (12.61%), Shunfeng Holdings (12.36%) and other five stocks had the highest cumulative growth during the period, all of which reached more than 10%. Four stocks, including Santai Holdings (9.29%), Shentong Express (7.66%), Xinning Logistics (7.63%), Yuantong Express (7.49%), also had a cumulative growth of more than 5% during the period Yunda shares rose 4.99% and 0.17% respectively during the two stock periods.

In terms of the distribution of large order funds, since February 11, the express sector as a whole has shown a trend of net inflow of large order funds. Four individual shares, including Deppon Shares (52.3661 million yuan), Suning Yigou (42.5975 million yuan), Yuntu Holdings (37.9054 million yuan) and Yuantong Express (33.4449 million yuan), have been scrambled by large order funds of more than 30 million yuan during the period. Xinning Logistics (9.5039 million yuan) During the period of four individual shares, Shentong Express (7.739 million yuan), Santai Holdings (4.9394 million yuan), Shunfeng Holdings (2.0479 million yuan) and other four individual shares, the accumulated net inflow of large single funds was also more than 2 million yuan. During the period of the above-mentioned eight individual shares, a total of 191 million yuan was attracted.

From the perspective of annual report performance forecast, at present, 8 express related listed companies have disclosed the performance forecast of 2018 annual report, of which 6 companies are expected to have a good performance. During the reporting period, Suning Yigou (213.56%) is expected to increase its net profit more than twice year-on-year, Yuntu Holding (90.00%), Yunda Shares (75.00%), Shentong Express (50.00%) The net profits of the three companies in 2018 are also expected to grow by 50% or more year on year. The predicted net profits of Orient Jiasheng and Shunfeng Holdings are 30.00% and 10.26% respectively year on year.

In terms of valuation, the latest dynamic P/E ratio of Shentong Express (15.93 times) is lower than the average value of the sector (20.63 times), and the latest dynamic P/E ratio of Suning Yigou is lower than the average value of all A-shares (14.50 times), only 10.95 times, among the express concept stocks whose performance is expected in the 2018 annual report. The above two stocks have obvious valuation advantages.

From the perspective of institutional rating, in the past 30 days, four express concept stocks with promising performance in the 2018 annual report were jointly recommended by institutions. During the Suning E-shop period, the number of institutions with favorable ratings ranked first, reaching 8. During the period, three stocks, including Shentong Express, Yunda Shares and Shunfeng Holdings, were respectively recommended by four, three and two institutions with "buy" or "increase" ratings.

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