Maduro

Since January 23, when Guaido, President of the Venezuelan Parliament, announced his assumption of the post of "Interim President", the situation in Venezuela has remained tense. At present, the President of Venezuela Maduro is still supported by the Supreme Court and the military, but the foreign intervention led by the United States is trying to continue to exert pressure on the Venezuela government from economic, diplomatic and even military aspects. In this case, the development of the situation in Venezuela is faced with three possibilities: the Maduro government has saved the day, the opposition of Venezuela has successfully "toppled the horse", the Maduro government and the opposition continue to stand still and completely break with the United States and other international "toppled horse" forces.

After Guaido announced on January 23 that he would become the "interim president", the United States immediately recognized him and said that it would continue to exert pressure on Venezuela through economic and diplomatic means. On the same day, Maduro accused the United States of openly instigating a coup in Venezuela, announced that it had officially broken off diplomatic relations with the United States, and demanded that all U.S. embassy personnel in Venezuela leave Venezuela within 72 hours. On the 24th, Maduro announced that all embassies and consulates of Venezuela in the United States would be closed and all diplomatic personnel in the United States would be withdrawn. On the 26th, France, Britain, Germany and Spain asked Venezuela to re elect a president within eight days, otherwise these countries would recognize Guaido as a "temporary president".

Guaido's "self establishment" means that the Venezuelan opposition has set off another climax of "overthrowing the horse". Since the opposition of Venezuela won the parliamentary control at the end of 2015, it has constantly launched the "horse overthrow" movement. However, after the failure of the referendum to promote the recall of Maduro, the opposition began to place its hope of "horse overthrow" on foreign pressure and intervention. This Guaido suddenly faced a difficult situation. First, it took advantage of the background of the severe economic situation in Venezuela and the increasing dissatisfaction of the public. Second, it took advantage of the opportunity that the United States pressured the Maduro government and the Latin American trend turned right to worsen the diplomatic environment of the Venezuela government.

Although Maduro is already familiar with the "routine" of the opposition, the international pressure on the government this time is not comparable to that in previous years. In this case, the Maduro government has adopted the method of resolving internal and external pressure through political negotiations with the opposition, which is also the way the international community, including the United Nations, hopes to solve the crisis. Maduro said on January 25 that he was willing to open dialogue with the opposition at any time, but Guaido rejected this proposal. At present, Mexico and other countries are still conducting good offices to facilitate negotiations. With the development of the situation inside and outside Venezuela, it is possible for both sides to return to the negotiation table.

However, the attitude of Venezuela's opposition will largely depend on the effectiveness of the pressure strategy of the United States and other countries. At present, the United States, Canada, Brazil, Colombia, Argentina and other American countries as well as some EU countries support Guaido, while Mexico and Uruguay recognize Maduro's government, while Russia, Turkey, Cuba, Bolivia, Nicaragua, Iran and other countries support Maduro. The United States is also seeking to cut off the financial revenue of Maduro's government, and said it would not rule out sending troops to Venezuela. Once the United States takes the opportunity to intervene or external pressure leads to changes in Venezuela (such as "defection" within the military), it may endanger the stability of Maduro's government.

However, if the Venezuela opposition and the United States and other international forces fail to "overthrow the horse" in the short term, they may continue to exert pressure on the Maduro government. The United States is Venezuela's largest trading partner and the largest importer of Venezuela's oil. In order to further suppress the government of Venezuela, the United States may impose oil embargo and other sanctions on Venezuela. At the same time, some countries in Latin America and even the EU may follow the lead of the United States. How to survive and develop under internal competition and external pressure will become a long-term problem faced by the Venezuela government.

      (The article in this column was originally published by China Industrial Network. If it is reproduced by online media, the source must be indicated as "China Industrial Network". If it is reproduced by print media, it must be authorized by China Industrial Network.)