Focal Research Institute · Earth Beating Research Report
Date of production: February 20, 2023
1、 Overview of this batch of land auctions: only one top auction was completed, with obvious differentiation trend
In 2023, the first batch of land auction in Suzhou will display 11 plots, including 1 commercial and residential plot and 11 pure residential plots. On February 16, the first land auction in Suzhou in 2023 concluded six plots on the first day, and only one residential plot was finally closed, with a total amount of 8.39 billion yuan charged for six plots. The remaining five plots will be auctioned on February 23, 2023. The results of the transaction on February 16 are as follows:
Data source: Suzhou Public Resources Trading Center, compiled by Focus Research Institute
Among them, Suyuan TuGua (2023) No. 01 plot, which was capped, is located in the west of the lake in the park, with a moderate size, covering an area of about 56800 square meters, and a floor area ratio of 1.8. It may create high-rise or small high-rise products in the future. There were 40 rounds of offers for the land before the auction began. After 65 rounds of bidding, a total of 31 real estate enterprises entered the scene to win the lottery, which was finally won by China Resources Land.
In terms of transportation, there are many subway stations under construction around the above plot, which are close to Line 1, Line 5, Line 6 and Line 7. In terms of education, in addition to Jinjihu School, which is adjacent to the southwest, there are also high-quality educational resources such as Xinghai Primary School and Xinghai Experimental Middle School. There is no new house supply in this sector for a long time, and the Huxi sector has been out of supply for a long time. At present, the average price of second-hand houses around the plot is basically 53-13000 yuan/square meter, and the future project is likely to be hot.
Among the remaining five plots, only the Sudi 2023-WG-4 plot won by Jianfa has a premium, and the surrounding supporting facilities are slightly inferior. The plot is close to the Central North Line, and there may be noise impact in the future. However, the education resources are rich, and the subway and public transport resources need to be further improved. In addition, all the 4 plots were sold at the bottom price, which is similar to the tone of the Suzhou local auction in the past, with the bottom price as the main transaction price.
2、 Overview of land auction in 2022
Compared with 2021, the sold area of the land auction in 2022 will be significantly reduced, the total transaction amount will be slightly reduced, and the transaction floor price will rise, among which the high-quality plots in the park and Shishan will be supplied in large quantities. In general, in 2022, the quality of new plots will be greatly improved, and the proportion of core high-quality plots will increase. This may be closely related to the real estate market in 2022. With the downturn of the real estate market and the deterioration of the financing environment, the real estate enterprises' willingness to acquire land is low. In order to prevent the land market from falling too fast, the local competent departments attract real estate enterprises to participate in the bidding through the supply of low quality land plots. According to the normal development pattern of land acquisition in the second half of the year to one year, Suzhou's property market pattern will change significantly in 2023, and improving the supply of housing will become the mainstream.
Data source: Suzhou Public Resources Trading Center, compiled by Focus Research Institute
From the perspective of land auction rules, in 2022, the centralized land supply in Suzhou will be changed to five batches, the margin ratio will be reduced from 30% to 20%, and the payment period of land transfer fees will be extended, which will improve the enthusiasm of real estate enterprises to acquire land to a certain extent. Since the fourth centralized supply in this year, once the land reaches the ceiling price, the quotation will be transferred to the spot lottery.
According to the land transaction in 2022, the land in the core areas of the industrial park and the high-tech zone is more enthusiastic and can be transacted at a premium, while the land market in the secondary core and the rigid demand sectors is calm, mostly at the bottom price. With the continuous adjustment of land auction rules and the continuous optimization of financial policies, the last two batches of land supply in the year bid farewell to the form of land acquisition mainly for state-owned enterprises and central enterprises. Private enterprises have already participated in the cooperation. It is expected that more private real estate enterprises will appear in the process of land auction in Suzhou in 2023.
3、 The land market in 2022 is expected to recover due to the recovery of new housing transactions
In 2023, the Suzhou property market is expected to recover. In terms of policy, at present, the degree of policy easing in Suzhou has basically bottomed out. In the future, the regulation will mainly be partially relaxed. The policy of house purchase is expected to remain relaxed. There is further room for relaxation in the policy of purchase and loan restriction. The housing price ceiling will further break through. The moderate recovery of the real estate market will bring about a revival of transactions in the local auction market, Suzhou's land auction market is expected to recover after bottoming out in 2022.
