Focus Research Institute · Focus Quick Review
Date of production: February 17, 2023
Policy content:
On February 8, the Economic Daily published an article pointing out that at present, the time is further ripe to promote the transition from the pre-sale system of commercial housing to the sales of existing housing. Correspondingly, Henan, Hunan, Shandong and other provinces will carry out pilot projects to actively explore pre-sale system reform and existing housing sales. It will gradually raise the threshold of pre-sale, encourage qualified places to try first, and carry out pilot sales of existing houses.
Focus:
As the credit risk of real estate enterprises continues to ferment, the fast turnover mode of real estate enterprises faces an impact. From the financial perspective More and more real estate enterprises are under pressure of liquidity, so they have to adopt a shrinking strategy, reduce the number of land acquisition, or even sell some assets at low prices in exchange for capital repatriation. In addition, the credit risk of real estate enterprises leads to their poor financing channels, which further worsens their cash flow. and From the perspective of people's livelihood The contraction of real estate enterprises' land investment, the stagnation of the construction process and even the "uncompleted" will make buyers aware of the downward pressure on house prices and more choose to wait and see with money. This will further aggravate the pressure on the sales side of real estate enterprises.
The end of the fast turnover model will have a profound impact on the real estate industry, among which, the gradual pilot and development of the existing housing sales system is in line with the trend of the times. So far, the era of general shortage of commercial housing in China has basically ended, which means that the method of improving the development efficiency of development investment projects is no longer applicable, which is represented by the pre-sale system. Real estate enterprises use leverage to acquire land, quickly pre-sale and withdraw sales funds early, shorten the loan period, and thus develop investment projects. Therefore, the sales of existing houses will enter the vision of buyers as the market changes.
The sale of existing houses is conducive to protecting the rights and interests of buyers, and can basically avoid the shutdown and uncompleted ending of the pending houses, which is a major benefit to consumers. This policy From the perspective of people's livelihood , will inject a strong shot into the home buyers. The interests of house buyers have been fundamentally protected. Problems such as wrong goods, housing quality, and risks such as downtime and delayed delivery will be minimized, which can greatly stimulate the consumer psychology of house buyers. From the financial perspective This policy will test the ability of real estate enterprises to control funds. After the implementation of the existing house sales system, the project development process and the fund return process will be much longer than in the past, from development, house sales to fund return. This will force real estate enterprises to gradually reduce operating leverage to adapt to the latest situation.
From the current realization path of existing house sales, many places have written "existing house sales" into the land transfer documents. For example, in the recent fifth batch of centralized land supply in Beijing in 2022, the auction rules for existing houses are set in the auction requirements for multiple pieces of land. From the short-term pilot situation, most cities will try to sell existing houses by setting conditions for existing house sales in the auction link. However, from a long-term perspective, the "replacement" of existing housing sales to the pre-sale system is not achieved overnight. Local governments need to flexibly adjust the pre-sale and existing housing policies according to the actual situation, regulate the housing supply quantity, and promote the stability of expectations on both sides of the real estate market supply and demand.
