Source: Automotive Business Review/Tu Yanping
No secondary reprint
At the ongoing National Two Sessions in 2022, how to achieve high-quality development of the charging and changing infrastructure industry has become a hot topic of concern to the delegates.
Lei Jun, a deputy to the National People's Congress and the founder of Xiaomi, brought the Proposal on Accelerating the Construction of High Power Fast Charging Infrastructure for New Energy Vehicles, which attracted public attention. He called for strengthening policy guidance and promoting the overall planning and layout of high power fast charging networks.
In addition, Yin Tongyue, deputy to the National People's Congress and chairman of Chery Automobile, proposed to introduce standards to optimize the development and construction of new energy vehicle charging infrastructure; Ding Zuohong, member of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference and chairman of the board of directors of Yuexing Group, proposed to include the new energy vehicle charging station as a public infrastructure construction in the urban planning.
Compared with charging, there are far fewer proposals and proposals calling for power replacement.
Li Shufu, deputy to the National People's Congress and chairman of Geely Holding Group, brought the "Suggestions on Increasing the Construction of Electric Vehicle Power Exchange System" and loudly called for accelerating the clarification of the relevant provisions on the construction of power exchange stations, high and low voltage box transformers, land and construction approval; Establish an exclusive announcement and certification system for car replacement; Accelerate the standardization and generalization of power exchange mode.
Since the popularization of new energy vehicles, the debate on the advantages and disadvantages of the two energy supplement modes of power replacement and charging has not subsided.
In 2007, the State Grid put forward the energy supplement mode of "power replacement as the main and power insertion as the auxiliary", which was blocked in implementation. In 2013, it was forced to give up the power replacement mode and open charging stations to vehicle enterprises. Since then, the power change mode has temporarily retired and the charging mode has been carried forward.
The turning point of the policy took place during the two sessions in 2020.
The new infrastructure content of the 2020 government work report clearly includes the "construction of charging piles". After discussion and deliberation, local representatives and members decided to expand "building charging piles" to "adding charging piles, power stations and other facilities". In the 2021 government work report, the power exchange station and the charging pile are equal. However, the 2022 government work report did not mention charging and changing electricity, which is also a bowl of water.
At present, the industry has reached a consensus that the two modes of charging and switching have their own advantages and markets.
What did not reach a consensus is: which is more promising in solving the energy supplement anxiety of electric vehicles, accelerating the layout of fast charging networks and accelerating the construction of power stations? If viewed from the terminal, this problem can also be translated into: fast charging and power exchange, which energy supplement mode will bring better use experience to new energy vehicle users?
Consumer demand, auto companies launch corresponding products, policy support and follow-up, industrial chain linkage, ecological formation... This is an ideal closed-loop business chain. However, due to different judgments on the development situation of the industry, the choices of the participants are also different.
It is a new bet to choose fast charging or power replacement, which is different from the initial stage of industry development. When China's annual sales of new energy vehicles reach 3.5 million, this choice is obviously more difficult.
Wall riders hope to have both. Few people put all their eggs in one basket. But to run fastest, you need to put all your eggs in one basket.
1. Electricity exchange dispatcher
Among the new energy vehicle enterprises, there were only a few loyal supporters of the power exchange mode, namely Weilai and BAIC BJEV. However, now the power change camp is gradually growing, and Chang'an, Wuling, Geely, etc. have joined in succession.
In September 2020, the first power exchange station of Chang'an New Energy was completed in Chongqing Olympic Sports Center, and a Chang'an New Energy EV460 electric vehicle demonstrated the 30 second power exchange on site.
This new energy exchange power station is jointly built by Chang'an New Energy and the power exchange alliance composed of Ningde Times, Aodong, the State Grid, the iron tower and other partners. It is mainly aimed at high-frequency and high load taxis, online car hailing, intercity vehicles, logistics and other operational scenarios. Through cooperation with Ningde Times, it is compatible with the power exchange services of seven main engine plants, including BAIC, GAC, SAIC, FAW Hongqi Pentium, Dongfeng Qichen, Chang'an, and Jianghuai.
In September 2021, SAIC GM Wuling released a new technology - intelligent micro power plant for new energy vehicles. The power exchange station covers a small area and can move flexibly. It does not need the power exchange vehicle to get on the bridge and park accurately. The power exchange robot makes accurate identification through visual identification and laser positioning technology. The fastest power exchange speed for a single time is equivalent to the time for filling a tank of oil.
According to the manufacturer, the construction cost of the smart micro power exchange station is only 1/3 of that of the conventional power exchange station in the industry. It can be expanded in building blocks, and multiple power storage cabins can be flexibly configured. It can also combine energy storage, V2X, V2G and other energy interaction technologies to carry out multi-mode operation. This technology has been put into use in October 2020 at SAIC GM Wuling Baojun Base.
Geely is particularly active in the layout of power exchange mode. In September 2020, Geely Technology Group's first power plant was unveiled; In November 2021, Geely's new energy commercial vehicle brand, Remote Vehicle, released the concept replacement heavy truck remote Xinghan H.
It is also more ambitious. In January 2022, Geely launched Ruilan Automobile, a brand of electric mobility, which is positioned as a new potential energy for a new generation of electric mobility. Geely Technology Group has also set the grand goal of becoming the first electricity exchange ecological service provider in China integrating research and development of electric vehicle type, research and development of power station, electricity exchange operation and travel services.
Li Shufu's suggestions on the power exchange mode hit the current pain point of the power exchange mode.
"In the car electricity separation mode, one replacement car type will match multiple batteries, and one battery will match multiple models. If three cars can match three batteries (with unified interface and interchangeability), these three cars need to be announced nine times. If new batteries are developed, they need to be announced again."
Therefore, he proposed that the announcement and regulations on the replacement of tram models should be optimized, and the exclusive announcement and certification system for the replacement of tram models should be established, so as to form the separate certification of vehicles and batteries under the separation of vehicle and electricity.
He also called for accelerating the standardization and generalization of power exchange mode. The low standardization of the battery is a major obstacle to the development of the current power change mode. This needs to be jointly promoted by automobile enterprises and battery enterprises.
Coincidentally, in January 2022, Ningde Times announced the introduction of power replacement, and its subsidiary, Times Electric Service, released the overall solution for power replacement service brand EVOGO Lehang power replacement and combined power replacement, including chocolate power replacement blocks specially developed for sharing power replacement.
Time Electric Service will launch EVOGO power change service in 10 cities, and the first cooperative model is FAW Pentium NAT combined power change version. It hopes to build the world's largest charging service network in the next two or three years.
The entrance of the Ningde era made people see the possibility of solving the problem of inconsistent battery replacement standards. Later, it is estimated that this pain point can be solved to a certain extent. But it is certainly not easy to promote it in the whole industry.
2. Fast charging pie
Compared with the above self owned brand car enterprises' enthusiasm for power change, many international car enterprises' response to the power change mode is relatively cold.
At the beginning of this year, BMW talked about the possibility of providing power replacement services for electric vehicles on Neue Klasse platform in an interview with the German media European Automobile Weekly, and said: "From our perspective, it is not convenient to establish charging and logistics infrastructure for power replacement stations." They believed that the cost of replacing lithium-ion battery packs was very high, Producing extra batteries for dynamic replacement will be a project requiring a lot of resources.
Tesla has demonstrated the power replacement technology in 2013, and has also applied for a patent for the power replacement of pure electric vehicles on the highway, and launched a car replacement model, but it finally turned to the overcharge line.
Tao Lin, vice president of external affairs of Tesla, once said: "Power replacement is a good energy supplement mode in some specific fields, such as taxis, but we firmly believe that charging is the best energy supplement method for large-scale civil electric vehicles", and "fast charging with high power for civil use is more convenient and stable".
By the end of 2021, Tesla has 3476 super charging stations and 31498 super charging piles in the world. While the scale of overcharging stations continues to expand, Tesla's charging power is also being rapidly upgraded and iterated.
In 2012, Tesla V1 super charging equipment was put on the market, with the maximum power reaching 90kW; In 2014, the maximum power of V2 overcharged pile reached 120KW; In 2019, V3 overcharge pile can support a peak charging power of up to 250kW. In the peak power environment, the model 3 long endurance version can drive about 120km in 5 minutes.
Fast charging is to shorten the charging time by increasing the charging power. There are two ways to increase the charging power: one is to increase the voltage, and the high-voltage DC fast charging scheme; The first is to increase the current, large current DC fast charging scheme.
The second scheme is chosen by the minority, represented by Tesla, whose maximum output current of V3 overcharge pile is close to 520A, which is close to the upper limit of charging current.
More vehicle enterprises choose high-voltage fast charging scheme. In 2019, Porsche took the lead in launching the first 800V platform mass production electric vehicle, Taycan, with a maximum charging power of 270 kW. After that, BYD, Xiaopeng, Geely Krypton, BAIC Jihu, GAC Ai'an, Dongfeng Landu, Hyundai, GM, Volkswagen, Mercedes Benz and others followed in succession.
At present, the fast charging technology has become a major publicity highlight when the car enterprises launch new products.
BYD's e-platform 3.0 is equipped with 800V high-voltage flash charging technology, with a 5-minute charging duration of 150km; Oula Good Cat charges for 12 minutes and has a endurance of 100km; Cadillac LYRIQ charges for 10 minutes and has a range of 96km; Jihu Alpha S charges for 10 minutes and has a endurance of 195km; The first model of the Great Wall Salon brand, Jijialong, has a 10 minute charging life of 401km; Light Orange Age revealed that the first new car has a fast charge of 8 minutes and a endurance of 200km
The improvement of electric vehicle charging power cannot be separated from the research of power battery enterprises on battery fast charging technology.
Funeng Technology, Honeycomb Energy, Ningde Times, Xinwangda, etc. have all laid out rechargeable technology batteries.
Lei Jun disclosed a data in his proposal on fast charging: at present, fast charging accounts for only 40% of public charging piles in China, and the power of fast charging is generally low.
This means huge market space. But how long will the high pressure fast charging technology be popularized? Huawei has long been laying out the high-voltage fast charging technology. It once judged that the high-voltage charging network would be built in 2021 or its penetration rate would be high, but it later found that this prediction was too optimistic.
3. Uncertainty about the future
Lux Research, a technology innovation research and consulting institution, released a report last year to analyze the cost of fast charging stations. The results show that they are not as cheap as Tesla claims. The power exchange facilities can support the operation of urban electric taxis, so they can become an alternative to fast charging.
The agency also pointed out that although rapid charging can minimize the power shortage time of taxis, it will also increase the probability of battery degradation and increase the operating costs of taxi fleets; In addition, the power change mode is most suitable for a fleet of more than 100 vehicles.
For power replacement and fast charging, who is the potential stock? It will be clearer after the large-scale implementation of products.
The reason why there were few enterprises involved in the power replacement mode before was also due to the uncertainty of profit prospects.
Yu Dexiang, Chairman of Te Dian, said in an interview with the media in 2020 that he once wanted to step into the power exchange industry, but called a team to study and found that "within three years, at least in terms of investment profits, scenes, etc., there is no suitable answer".
He judged that when half of the large car enterprises began to change tram models, it represented the real trend of power change. If 20% of electric vehicles used the power change mode to supplement energy, it represented the real beginning of benign development of the power change market. At that time, the special call would immediately enter the power change market.
Another charging giant, Xingxing Charging, has already taken a step ahead, and in July 2020, it added the sales business of power replacement facilities in the change of business scope. Shao Danwei, chairman of Xingxing Charging, also said that he has made strategic cooperation with a new car manufacturer in the field of power replacement. In December 2021, Xingxing Charging and FAW Jiefang signed a strategic cooperation agreement to cooperate in charging and replacing power grids, battery banks, etc.
The power change mode requires the cooperation of automobile enterprises, power change operators, power battery enterprises and other parties. The popularization of fast charging technology requires that electric vehicles, power batteries, and charging piles all adapt to fast charging, which is also a systematic project.
Charging and replacement operators and power battery enterprises may still have a choice, but automobile enterprises dare not take any of the two paths lightly.
If there is no more promising one in a short period of time, it is safe to focus on both. However, when energy and resources are limited, there will be some emphasis. Another situation is that if you don't do it on the table, you can do both of them off the table. Don't do it on the mouth, but you are honest. This is also a strategy.
In order to deal with the uncertainty of the future, many automobile enterprises have begun to introduce rechargeable, exchangeable and upgradeable products, maintain the openness of technology at the product end, and turn to the consumers for choice. Consumers vote with their feet, which in turn will affect the choice of car companies.
For consumers who finally pay the bill, there is an impossible triangle of low cost, high safety, and high convenience, whether it is quick charging or power replacement. To put it bluntly, you can't "both want and want" these three things.
Now it's the consumer's turn to make a choice. If you are a user of new energy vehicles, which one do you prefer?
