Figure: If Taiwan loses ECFA, it will no longer be able to obtain tariff preferences, which will affect the competitiveness of its products. Information picture
According to China News Service, Sheng Jiuyuan, director and professor of the Taiwan Research Center of Shanghai Jiaotong University, said in an interview on the 7th that cross-strait economic and trade development is moving towards a critical turning point. If the dialogue can be restarted on the basis of the 1992 Consensus, not only can preferential tariffs under the Cross Strait Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA) be restored for related products through negotiation, It will further promote the development and deepening of cross-strait economic and trade cooperation and drive the growth of Taiwan's overall economy.
Sheng Jiuyuan said that since the cross-strait economic and trade exchanges, Taiwan has maintained a huge trade surplus, which has become the main support for sustainable and stable economic development and an important driving force for transformation and upgrading. However, this trend will change after 2022. The mainland is Taiwan's largest trading partner. The decline of cross-strait trade directly impacts Taiwan's exports, leading to a 9.8% decline in exports in 2023. The positive effects of ECFA cannot be ignored.
"For Taiwan, ECFA is not only a vane of cross-strait economic cooperation, but also has a profound impact on Taiwan's economic development." He pointed out that although ECFA has not gone through the whole process, through the early receipt list, Taiwan's agricultural, fishery, machinery, textile, chemical and other products can enhance their market competitiveness due to tariff reduction and exemption, to ensure that Taiwan's industry does not rely too much on chip manufacturing, electronic information and other high-tech industries, which is conducive to the relatively balanced and stable development of the economy and employment of traditional industries. Therefore, ECFA has a great impact on the investment confidence of Taiwan funded enterprises. Once frustrated, it will further drive the investment transfer effect and cause a significant negative impact on Taiwan's economic development.
Sheng Jiuyuan pointed out that for a long time, the Taiwan authorities have taken discriminatory restrictive measures against mainland products, resulting in serious inequality and one-sided restrictions on cross-strait trade. With regard to the facts that have been identified as constituting trade barriers, the DPP authorities should actively communicate with the mainland and negotiate to remove the existing trade barriers. However, it is regrettable that three months after the leadership election in Taiwan, the new DPP team coming to power has neither the will nor the sincerity to solve this problem through consultation.
Cross Straits Economic and Trade Towards a Key Turning Point
Sheng Jiuyuan stressed that from the current situation, cross-strait economic and trade development is moving towards a critical turning point, but if the resumption of negotiation and dialogue cannot be achieved, cross-strait economic and trade will likely fall into a vicious spiral cycle. For Taiwan, it will not only face the problem of ECFA termination, but also may face more trade investigations from the mainland to reverse the long-term trade inequality, imbalance and unilateral discriminatory practices, which will certainly change the existing economic and trade pattern between the two sides of the Taiwan Straits, leading to the decline of Taiwan's foreign trade and industry, as well as the sharp decline of people's well-being.
