The extreme consequences of unfounded conspiratorial beliefs could be seen on thestaircases of the U.S.Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, and in theself-immolation of a protestoroutside the courthouse holding the latest Trump trial.
But if hidden forces really are at work in the world, how is someone to knowwhat’s really going on?
Real conspiracies have been confirmed because there was evidence. For instance, in the allegations dating back to the 1990s thattobacco companies knew cigarettes were dangerousand kept that information secret to make money,scientific studies showed problematic links between tobacco and cancer. Court cases unearthed corporate documents with internal memos showing what executives knew and when. Investigative journalists revealed efforts to hide that information. Doctors explained the effects on their patients. Internal whistleblowers sounded the alarm.
But unfounded conspiracy theories reveal their lack of evidence and substitute instead several elements that should be red flags for skeptics:
Article Page with Financial Support Promotion
Nigerians need credible journalism. Help us report it.
Support journalism driven by facts, created by Nigerians for Nigerians. Our thorough, researched reporting relies on the support of readers like you.
Help us maintain free and accessible news for all with a small donation.
Every contribution guarantees that we can keep delivering important stories—no paywalls, just quality journalism.
Claiming that missing information is because someone is hiding it, even though it’s common that not all facts are known completely for some time after an event.
Overinterpreting ambiguity as evidence: A flying object may be unidentified – but that’s different from identifying it as an alien spaceship.
Using anecdotes – especially vaguely attributed ones – in place of evidence, such as “people are saying” such-and-such or “my cousin’s friend experienced” something.
Attributing knowledge tosecret messagesthat only a select few can grasp – rather than evidence that’s plain and clear to all.
Step 2: Test the allegation
Often, a conspiracy theorist presents only evidence that confirms their idea. Rarely do they put their idea to the tests oflogic, reasoning and critical thinking.
While they may say they do research, they typicallydo not apply the scientific method. Specifically, they don’t actually try to prove themselves wrong.
So a skeptic can follow the method scientists use when they do research: Think about whatevidence would contradict the explanation– and then go looking for that evidence.
Sometimes that effort will yield confirmation that the explanation is correct. And sometimes not. Like a scientist, ask yourself: What would it take for you to believe your perception was wrong?
Step 3: Watch out for tangled webs
When theories claim large groups of people are perpetrating wide-ranging activities over a long period of time, that’s another red flag.
Confirmed conspiracies typically involve small, isolated groups, like the top echelon of a company or a single terrorist cell. Even the alliance among tobacco companies to hide their products’ danger was confined to those at the top, who made decisions andenlisted paid scientists and ad agenciesto spread their messages.
False conspiracies tend to implicate wide swaths of people, such as world leaders, mainstream media outlets, the global scientific community, the Hollywood entertainment industry and interconnected government agencies.
Theonline manifesto of Max Azzarello– the man who self-immolated on the steps of a New York courthouse in April 2024– railed against a conspiracy allegedly including every president since Bill Clinton, sex offender Jeffrey Epstein, even the writers of “The Simpsons.”
Remember that the more people who supposedly know a secret, the harder it is to keep.
Step 4: Look for a motive
Confirmed conspiracies tell stories about why a group of people acted as they did and what they hoped to gain. Dubious conspiracies involve a lot of accusations or just questions without examining what real benefit the conspiracy nets the conspirators, especially when factoring in the costs.
For instance, what purpose would NASA have to lie about theexistence of Finland?
Be particularly suspicious when conspiracies allege an “agenda” being perpetrated by an entire sociodemographic, which is often a marginalized group, such as a “gay agenda” or “Muslim agenda.”
Also look to see whether those spreading the conspiracy theories have something to gain. For example, scholarly research has identified the 12 people who are the primary sources of false claims about vaccinations. The researchers also found that those peopleprofit from making those claims.
Step 5: Seek the source of the allegations
If you can’t figure out who is at the root of a conspiracy allegation and thus how they came to know what they claim, that is another red flag. Some people say they have to remain anonymous because the conspiracists will take revenge for revealing information. But even so,a conspiracy can usually be tracked back to its source – maybe a social media account, even an anonymous one.
Over time, anonymous sources either come forward or are revealed. For instance, years after the Watergate scandal took down Richard Nixon’s presidency, a key inside source known as “Deep Throat” wasrevealed to be Mark Felt, who had been a high-level FBI official in the early 1970s.
Even thenotorious “Q”at the heart of theQAnon conspiracycult has been identified, and not by government investigators chasing leaks of national secrets. Surprise! Q is not the high-level official some people believed.
Reliable sources are transparent.
Step 6: Beware the supernatural
Some conspiracy theories – though none that have been proven – involve paranormal, alien, demonic or other supernatural forces. People alive in the 1980s and 1990s might remember the public fear that satanic cults were abusing and sacrificing children. That idea never disappeared entirely.
And around the same time, perhaps inspired by the TV series “V,” some Americans began to believe in lizard people. It may seem harmless to keep hoping for evidence of Bigfoot, but the person who detonated a bomb in downtown Nashville on Dec. 25, 2020, apparently believed lizard people ran the Earth.
The closer the conspiracy is to science fiction, the closer it is to just being fiction.
Step 7: Look for other warning signs
There are other red flags too, like the use of prejudicial tropes about the group allegedly behind the conspiracy, particularly antisemitic allegations.
But rather than doing the work to really examine their conspiratorial beliefs, believers often choose to write off the skeptics as fools or as also being in on it – whatever “it” may be.
Ultimately, that’s part of the allure of conspiracy theories. It is easier to dismiss criticism than to admit you might be wrong.
THE CONVERSATION IS PREMIUM TIMES SYNDICATION PARTNER. WE HAVE PERMISSION TO REPUBLISH ITS CONTENTS.
Support PREMIUM TIMES' journalism of integrity and credibility
At Premium Times, we firmly believe in the importance of high-quality journalism. Recognizing that not everyone can afford costly news subscriptions, we are dedicated to delivering meticulously researched, fact-checked news that remains freely accessible to all.
Whether you turn to Premium Times for daily updates, in-depth investigations into pressing national issues, or entertaining trending stories, we value your readership.
It’s essential to acknowledge that news production incurs expenses, and we take pride in never placing our stories behind a prohibitive paywall.
Would you consider supporting us with a modest contribution on a monthly basis to help maintain our commitment to free, accessible news?