about Polaris index Development and Growth model The basic theoretical system has been formed for the construction of the. Next, we will use this theory for product analysis. Today is the fourth chapter of the methodology for small things growth.

This article selects the field of knowledge payment and takes Fan Dengdu as an example for analysis.

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According to the shared theoretical system, the development and application steps of Polaris indicators are summarized in the figure above. If you have read the previous three theoretical articles, you can definitely understand this figure. If you forget, you can read it again.

Next, according to the table of contents in the figure, we will take Fan Dengdu as an example to develop the Polaris index and build a growth model.

As for PMF, Fan Dengdu has been verified by the market and stood out when the whole industry fell into the bottleneck period of growth. The following will start from the analysis of growth priorities

Key growth points at this stage

1. Market situation

According to the data of iiMedia Research, since 2017, the market size of China's knowledge payment industry has expanded rapidly, reaching 39.2 billion yuan in 2020, and is expected to reach 67.5 billion yuan by 2021. Analysts from iMedia Consulting believe that with the continuous development of the Internet industry, the knowledge payment industry has received traffic dividends operate The mode is gradually mature, the content and form are constantly enriched, and the overall market scale of the industry is expected to accelerate expansion.

According to the data, although the industry has experienced a period of rapid growth, there is still a lot of room for growth, and it is still in an incremental market state.

According to Fan Dengdu's business strategy, rapid expansion and horse racing enclosure can still be considered. However, considering that Fan Dengdu's liquidity is strong, Fan Dengdu can still focus on liquidity to support further customer acquisition.

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2. Product life cycle

2018 is the year of blowout of knowledge payment development. Since then, the development speed of the knowledge payment industry has slowed down. Affected by the epidemic in 2020, the market size has rebounded. It is expected that it will continue to rebound in 2021, but the entire industry has entered a more mature stage of development.

Fan Dengdu is different from Daohe Chaohu University. He pays attention to the learning needs of users in the sinking market, works hard, and uses the offline distribution agent to quickly occupy the market. In 2020, the valuation has exceeded 5 billion yuan, which has also occupied a larger market scale.

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Looking at the growth trend of the total downloads of Fan Deng's reading APP (Android only), Kuchuan.com found that in 2019, it entered a rapid growth period, and in August 2020, the growth began to slow down, and the product began to enter a mature period.

During this period, the product needs to focus on retention and activity, actively optimize the current liquidation method, and explore new liquidation methods.

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3. Product category

Fan Dengdu is a content product, which needs to constantly improve user activity, pay attention to user retention rate, explore more ways of realization by improving user retention, provide users with high-quality content and explore more payment scenarios.

4. Unique business factors

Fan Deng has three factors that need special attention:

• The first is content. For content products, content quality is particularly important, which is the core value of the product, so it is crucial to control content quality.
• The second is its unique way of playing offline sales agents. Fan Dengdu has achieved rapid growth and more realization with this method, but we also need to pay attention to the influence of agents on Fan Dendu members.
• The third is its user orientation. Fan Dengdu catches the mass market users. No matter how personal economy and environment are, there is a need for learning. Can the current market sink a little more? Or can we add more elite content? It can be thought and explored constantly.

5. Summary

According to the above four points, Fan Deng's growth priorities are summarized as follows:

• According to Fan Dengdu's business strategy, rapid expansion can still be considered, but its strong liquidity can in turn help Fan Dengdu win customers, so the focus is still on liquidity.
• Fan Dengdu's current business model is relatively mature and has entered the product maturity period. It needs to constantly explore better or more forms of realization.
• The core value provided by Fan Dengdu is its content. No matter when, what kind of scene and how to play, the quality of the content needs to be guaranteed.

Develop Polaris indicators

1. Clarify business objectives and user value

The user problem Fan Deng wants to solve is that he has no time to read, does not know which books to read, and is inefficient in reading

It can be seen from this that this is a group of users who are willing to read and learn but have poor reading ability. Fan Dengdu selects high-quality books for them to recommend to them, and helps them refine the key points and master the key points of books in a short time.

Then, based on this analysis, Fan Dengdu's business objectives are:

• In combination with the growth focus of the product, retention and realization are very important. Its liquidity is also relatively strong. The income obtained is considered to continue to gain customers quickly and achieve new growth. Therefore, the business goal is to obtain Income from continuing members

User value:

• Read good books quickly and learn knowledge

Link business objectives and user value to form a closed loop:

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Consider which indicators can meet the closed-loop requirements:

• Number of books listened: the more books listened, the more users can hear the books they are interested in, and then they are likely to continue listening
• Listening time: The longer the listening time is, the user has started an immersive listening experience, earnestly learned knowledge, gained value from it, improved user trust and loyalty, and then transformed into paying users to continue to gain value
• Number of paid subscribers: The more paid subscribers, the more users can feel the value. Users have listened to the books they are interested in and gained value. At the same time, the platform has gained more revenue and continues to provide more valuable content
• Number of active users: the more active users are, the more potential users of the product are, and it is possible to guide users to discover value and transform
• Number of listening users: the more users start listening, the more users will feel the value of the product and transform it

2. 6 standard screening indicators

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Two suitable indicators are obtained after screening:

• Number and duration of listening

3. Determine indicators based on the current situation

For knowledge payment products, users will be more willing to pay if they get value from the product. Combining the number and duration of listening, it can reflect that users get value to a certain extent:

• The more books users listen to, the more interesting books they can find; The longer the user listens to the book, the more interested the user is in audio content
• Content products hope that users can stay active for a longer time in the product. If users are only interested in reading books and do not listen to them, then users cannot gain value from them. Therefore, relatively speaking, The user listening time may be more accurate in reflecting the user value (the number of books can be said to be a vanity indicator to some extent, but this indicator still has a lot of use value)

Therefore, the Polaris index is finally determined as:

• Listening time

Build growth model

1. Identify Polaris indicators

• Listening time

2. Sort out the user's core path

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3. Try to build a growth model

Full chain funnel type:

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Factorized:

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(The above growth model is attempted to be constructed according to the Polaris index, and the data displayed is only for understanding, which is purely fictitious; combining this growth model will also be helpful for the construction of the growth dashboard, which will be explained in a later article, interested in sustainable attention)

Verify the correctness of the analysis

The most concerned indicators of the product can be seen from the clues in the product and the operation system.

When new users enter the APP, they will be given 7 days of VIP gifts User experience The product value (it can also be seen that the activation time of new users of Fan Dengdu is one week). After logging in, users will be guided to fill in labels. The books recommended according to the labels I filled in are quite in line with my taste, and the recommendation logic should be good

After that, we started to guide users to learn the first book and the third book. Only by listening to books can we experience the core value of the product. Here we can see that the direction of the number and duration of listening to books is good

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Then we learned about Fan Deng's task system of reading. The task rule of "reading in groups" requires that the cumulative reading time be up to 60 minutes. The "task center" learning task is also to improve and ensure the basic learning time of users.

From this point of view, Fan Deng's reading Polaris indicator should be the reading duration. Even though the Polaris indicator may not be the reading duration, the reading duration must not be too different.

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last

Polaris indicators such as listening time, learning time and viewing time are particularly applicable to content killing time products.

For example, the "learning duration" is mainly displayed in the main menu "My", and the data displayed in the "Learning Achievement" module is mainly the learning duration

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Others are:

For short video products, such as dithering, fast hand, YouTube, etc., the indicators of Polaris are relatively reasonable Viewing duration The longer the user watches the video, the more interested the user is in the video content. The platform can also do a lot of business, traffic and other liquidity means based on this.

For audio products, such as Himalayas, Dragonfly FM, and Lazy People Listening to Books, the Polaris indicator is often set as Listening duration In the same way, the longer users listen to it, the more value they gain from it, the more habits they will form, and the more cash they can get from the platform.

Music products, such as Netease Cloud Music, QQ Music, Kugou Music, etc., also, there are many users now, and a song can be played dozens or hundreds of times, Listening time It is a good indicator of Polaris.

The main value of reading products, such as WeChat reading, seven cats free novels, palm reading, etc., is to provide users with a large number of books they need, Reading duration It directly reflects whether users can obtain value. For example, WeChat Reading has set the competition rule of the competition mechanism "Reading Ranking" to reading duration from the beginning, and reading duration can be exchanged for reading currency, so that users form a positive cycle.

I don't know whether you have found that the Polaris indicators of many products are consistent, the attributes of products are basically consistent, and the value provided by users is consistent. Whether it is to spend time or use time to do some reading and learning, the essence is to kill time, just the difference between human nature and anti human nature. So, perhaps, There are more products you can refer to and more competing products, and your underlying logic seems to be more centralized.

Author: product manager Sun Xiaoxiao

Link: https://www.jianshu.com/p/ae79eb768da5