Don't blindly worship the formula that seems to be tall. You should verify it yourself before using it. Otherwise, it will be your own fault
A popular one some time agooperateIn the map, I found an interesting formula
Look carefully, it's tall, but it can't stand scrutiny
one
Incorrect expression in mathematical formula
In the formula, t represents the time window
For example, t=1 represents the number of consumption in the first month, and t=2 represents the number of consumption in the second month
In the formula, s represents the consumption times
For example, s=1 represents one consumption, s=2 represents two consumption
First of all, one variable in mathematics can only be replaced by one letter, so is the consumption number t or s?
Secondly, ∑ means summation, as shown below:
Where n is the upper bound, i is the lower bound, and k is the formula
That is, k fetches data from i to n, and then adds all the results
Application example:
You can see thiscaseThere is t in the middle and lower bounds, and t also appears in the following formula
So this userloyaltyModelWhere is t in the formula?
Since there is only s in the formula, mathematically speaking, t here should be s
twoCase correction
The mathematical formula should be universal. No matter how difficult it is, there will be restrictions
But this formula can easily find loopholes
Scenario 1:
Customer A has consumed 1 times since the first month, 2 times since the second month, and 3 times since the third month
According to the formula, customer loyalty of A is: 1/2+2/3+3/4=1.92
Scenario 2:
Customer B has consumed 3 times since the first month, 2 times since the second month, and 1 times since the third month
According to the formula, customer loyalty of B is: 3/4+2/3+1/2=1.92
So customer A has the same loyalty as customer B?
A Customer consumption gradually decreases
B Customer consumption increases gradually
CRM staff should all know that customer loyalty of B is on the rise and is now the highest
A Customer loyalty is gradually declining and is now the lowest
To sum up, there are two obvious errors in this formula, and the second error also leads to the failure of the whole formula
threeMy loyalty calculation method
But the sum formula ∑ also inspired me
I also worked out a calculation method of user loyalty
Don't dare to say the model, put it up and have a look
1. Weighting
In weighting, the values of different weights are given according to the latest Nth month
The most recent month is the closest to the present, so the assignment is the highest
The last December is the farthest from the present, so the assignment is the lowest
I use the calculation method of 1 year. Of course, if your customer's life cycle reaches 2 years, you can also assign values from 24, from the latest January to the latest 24th month
Then take 12+11+...+1=78 as the sum of the assigned values
In weighted assignment rate, 15.38%=12/78, 14.1%=11/78
2. Loyalty
The number of purchases made by customers in the previous N months multiplied by the weighted assignment rate of the corresponding month to get the loyalty of that month
Then add up the loyalty of all months in a year
Then we can get the total loyalty of the customer
3. Practical examples
Let's see two comparisons
Customer A has bought more recently, 14 times in total
Customer D has bought more in the past, 35 times in total
However, according to the weighted total, customer A loyalty is greater than customer B loyalty
Because customer D's loyalty is too low recently
The above is my simple loyalty assessment method
Loyalty=∑ purchase times in the Nth month * corresponding to weighted assignment in the latest Nth month
There are other better methods. Welcome to discuss and exchange
Author: Yu Heng, the founder of an Internet We Media, has served many top 3 e-commerce businesses in the industry category, and is the head of crm for the tens of millions of user platformsmemberKnowledge system, accuracyMarketing，Data analysisI have rich knowledge and practical experience.WeChat official account: returned CRM
This article was submitted by Yao Guang, which does not represent the position of Love Operation. If it is reproduced, please indicate the source:https://www.iyunying.org/yunying/172059.html
