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Chapter 1: Model Text of Financial Situation Analysis
Since the 1990s finance This is where most crises start. Generally speaking, countries with financial crises caused by balance of payments imbalances all adopt a fixed exchange rate system, and the exchange rate is distorted to a certain extent. Before the financial crisis, there are often economic depression, political turbulence and other phenomena. Then the citizens lose confidence in their own currency, and the demand for foreign currencies such as the U.S. dollar rises. In order to maintain the fixed exchange rate, the central bank, A large amount of foreign exchange must be thrown out to recover the local currency. However, as the negative news continues to appear, the monetary authorities finally cannot defend the fixed exchange rate and announce the devaluation of the currency, leading to the collapse of the local currency. Taking Thailand before the Southeast Asian financial crisis as an example, before the financial crisis, the Thai baht had been implementing a fixed exchange rate system, mainly pegged to the US dollar. With the reduction of the international competitiveness of Thai products and the continuous rise of the current account deficit, the Thai baht was overvalued, and the Bank of Thailand was forced to issue a large amount of foreign exchange to maintain a fixed exchange rate. By the second half of 1996, In Thailand's financial market, there was a wave of crowding. In February 1997, international hot money again sold the Thai baht on a large scale. On July 2, 1997, Thailand gave up the linked exchange rate system that had been implemented for more than 10 years, and devalued 19% on that day. In August, the Thai government announced the temporary closure of 16 financial institutions, and also announced the implementation of a unified exchange rate for the Thai baht at home and abroad, which caused panic in the market, Once again, there was a wave of selling the Thai baht. Southeast Asian countries had very close economic ties. Like Thailand, the exchange rates of Malaysia, the Philippines and other countries also fell sharply. So will China have a large-scale financial crisis due to the imbalance of international payments? I should say no. First of all, since the implementation of the exchange rate reform, China has no longer adopted the fixed exchange rate system. Although the RMB exchange rate is still distorted to a certain extent due to the intervention of the central bank, the RMB exchange rate, contrary to the situation in Southeast Asian countries, is not overvalued, but undervalued, from July 21, 2005 to April 30, 2007, The RMB has appreciated by more than 13% accumulatively and is expected to appreciate, so there is no so-called depreciation expectation. Second, the central bank holds a large amount of foreign exchange reserves. Foreign exchange reserves have increased from more than 200 billion dollars in 2001 to more than 1600 billion dollars at present, ranking first in the world. With so many foreign exchange reserves, we can effectively resist the speculation of international speculators and avoid violent turbulence in the foreign exchange market. Therefore, the possibility of China's financial crisis caused by the imbalance of international payments is almost zero.
2、 Capital market imbalance
The capital market determines the price of financial assets. When the capital market is out of balance, it will cause panic in the market, a large number of securities will be sold, and the capital market will collapse, leading to a comprehensive financial crisis. The stock crash in the United States in 1987 is a famous case of financial crisis caused by capital market imbalance. In the 1980s, the Reagan administration adopted a series of successful economic policies. The U.S. economy entered a boom period, and the stock market also rose, resulting in a clear bubble. Until the summer of 1987, the stock market was still booming. But by October, investors were worried because of a series of bad news, such as an increase in the deficit and a serious fiscal deficit, The bubble began to burst. On October 14, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 95.46 points, setting a new record. On October 16, it fell 108.35 points. On October 19, the famous Black Monday, the stock market fell 508.32 points, or 22.6%. The financial crisis also spread to the world, and the stock markets in Europe and the Asia Pacific region also fell sharply. For example, on October 20, the Hang Seng Index fell by 33.5%. The 87 stock market crash closed more than 100 banks in the United States, and investors suffered heavy losses. They seldom bought houses again, leading to the decline of real estate market prices. From the current situation in China, there are great similarities with the United States at that time. First, the economy has maintained rapid growth. Second, from the perspective of the stock index, from the bottom of the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index on June 6, 2005 to 998 points to the historical peak of 6124 points on October 16, 2007, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index rose by more than 500%. In the following six months, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index shrank by more than 50%. Therefore, judging from the extent of decline, China has actually experienced a "stock disaster". However, after a careful analysis of the differences between China and the United States, the author believes that the decline of the stock market will not rise to the extent of the financial crisis: first, China's stock market is a policy market after all, in other words, the official has sufficient control over China's stock market, and there are various means to regulate the stock market, such as introducing favorable policies and government officials' speeches when the stock market falls sharply, Or the fund companies were called together for "window guidance", and the State owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission and other government agencies directly used their funds to rescue the market. For example, on April 22 this year, when the stock fell below 3000, the government immediately carried out a 3000 point defense war, and the Dayang was closed on that day. On April 24, the stamp tax was lowered and the stock market was almost up and down. On the other hand, despite the impact of the international economic situation, China's macro-economy has some problems such as inflation, but the fundamentals have not gone bad, and the expectations of rapid growth have not changed. Therefore, as long as the government releases good news, the market expectations will change immediately, and it is possible for the stock index to reach a new high. Second, even if the stock market crashed, the disaster would not spread to the banking system. The reason why the August/July stock market crash caused the collapse of more than 100 banks in the United States was that these banks had a large number of stock and bond mortgages. In May 1987, American banks had 38.89 billion dollars in mortgage loans to stocks and bonds. In China, enterprises mainly use the stock market for financing, but not much investment, and the law does not allow borrowing funds from banks for securities investment. Therefore, when the stock market crashes, there will be no loss of enterprises, which will cause bad debts to banks. Of course, the law also does not allow banks to invest in the securities market. Therefore, in China, even if a stock disaster does not cause a banking crisis, the real fear is the bursting of the real estate market bubble. Let's analyze this problem.
3、 Unbalanced capital lending market
The financial crisis caused by the imbalance of the capital lending market is actually a credit crisis. Its principle is that, in order to stimulate the economy, the central bank adopts loose monetary policy, which leads to the rise of asset prices and inflation. A large number of bad debts occur in banks, and the capital chain breaks, which leads to a run on banks. The herd effect makes this phenomenon likely to spread to the entire banking system, As a result, a large number of banks went bankrupt and the entire national economy suffered a huge blow. After signing the Plaza Agreement in the 1980s, in order to cope with the adverse balance of payments environment, the Japanese government adopted a loose monetary policy, relaxed credit, and the banks released a large number of real estate mortgage loans. In addition, Japan's land was already scarce, and the real estate price in Japan soared. At that time, the land price in Japan was more than three times that in the United States. In 1989, The Bank of Japan raised the rediscount rate three times. After the interest rate was raised, the borrower was unable to repay the interest, which led to bad debts of the bank and the real estate bubble burst. By 1997, Japanese residential land had dropped by about 30% compared with 1989, and commercial land had dropped by about 50%. Seven of the eight residential finance companies (residential colleges) had failed, which also brought a large number of bad debts to the bank, As a result, Japan's economy has never recovered completely. In view of the rise in real estate prices in China in recent years, many experts have called for vigilance against the bursting of the real estate bubble. On the one hand, the author believes that whether there is a bubble in the real estate market is a problem. The bubble theory is not a mature theory. Greenspan said: "A bubble can only be confirmed when it bursts.", It is inappropriate for some scholars to measure the bubble only by comparing the housing price with the family's annual income. The high ratio can only prove the high housing price in the sociological sense. In economics, it is reasonable to use the vacancy rate of new houses to measure the bubble. But technically, there is no uniform standard for this indicator, but qualitatively, the author believes that, The high price of real estate in China is largely caused by supply and demand. Economics believes that the supply of real estate is relatively fixed for a long time, but there is a cyclical problem in China. A large number of urban unit houses were built in the 1980s. More than 20 years later, these houses can no longer meet the requirements of modern people in terms of size and structure, so there is a great demand for new houses, This naturally causes high house prices; On the other hand, there are several reasons that make it unlikely that house prices will fall: first, the policy of tight land supply will limit the new growth of real estate; Second, the current policy goal is to stabilize housing prices, rather than make real estate prices fall; Third, due to global inflation, rising raw material prices have led to higher real estate prices. Based on the above points, the author believes that China's real estate bubble burst is not likely to lead to a financial crisis.
4、 Conclusion
The above analysis of the three main types of financial crisis, namely, the financial crisis caused by the imbalance of the balance of payments, the financial crisis caused by the imbalance of the capital market and the financial crisis caused by the imbalance of the lending market, and for each type, we believe that China is unlikely to have a large-scale financial crisis at present. In fact, fundamentally speaking, it is China's good economic situation that determines that China is unlikely to have a financial crisis. However, everything has its two sides. Just as anyone can't accurately predict the financial crisis, no one can absolutely say that China will not have a financial crisis. In principle, the essence of financial crisis is herding. If a financial institution has problems, it is likely to cause a financial crisis. On the other hand, There are also a series of problems behind the rapid growth of China's economy, such as structural contradictions in the national economy, the positioning of the government in the economy, and so on. Therefore, as the management, it is necessary to strengthen the supervision of financial institutions, strictly control the credit gate, and prevent financial crisis due to problems of financial institutions. On the other hand, we should also focus on solving the problems of the health level in the economy and society, such as insufficient domestic demand, unbalanced regional development, and the widening gap between the rich and the poor. Only in this way can China's economy maintain healthy and stable development for a long time, so as to fundamentally avoid the occurrence of financial crisis.
reference:
[1] Shi Junzhi. Mechanism and Prevention of Financial Crisis. China Financial Publishing House, 2001
[2] Hong Tao. Economic Analysis of Southeast Asian Financial Crisis. China Business Press, 1998
[3] Huang Zemin. Money and Banking. Lixin Accounting Press, 2001
[4] Jiang Jianqing, Xi Junyang. Reflections on the Financial Crisis. Shanghai People's Publishing House, 1999
[5] Wu Lian. Beware of Financial Risks Brought by Real Estate Bubbles. Financial Theory and Practice, 2007, (2): 36-38
[6] Xiang Weixing, Li Hongjin, Fan Dabai. Bank Credit Expansion and Real Estate Bubble: Lessons from the United States, Japan and Southeast Asian Countries and Regions. International Finance Research, 2007, (3): 55-60
Part 2: Model Analysis of Financial Situation
[Key words] Research status of logistics finance
1、 Research Status of Logistics Finance Business Abroad
(1) It started early and has rich research. Logistics finance business in foreign countries has been carried out earlier, and its related research is also relatively rich, including Friedman (1942), Albert (1948), Eisenstadt (1966), Raymond (1948) and Dunham (1949) summarized the legal atmosphere, business model, warehousing method, monitoring method and process of inventory pledge financing and accounts receivable financing in logistics finance in the process of overseas development. Barnett and Biederman conducted relevant research on the current situation and development trend of logistics finance.
(2) Apply Internet technology to logistics finance business. Guerrisi (2001) reviewed the development of logistics distribution technology and capital transfer technology in the supply chain, and believed that the current capital flow management could not match the rapidly developing logistics technology. Especially in the field of e-commerce, capital transfer has become an obstacle to development, Therefore, it is proposed that the Internet based electronic currency transfer mode will be widely used in the global trade chain.
(3) Focusing on the logistics financial business research in the supply chain environment. Leora Klapper (2008) analyzed the incentives and functions of the inventory financing model for SMEs in the supply chain. Gonzalo Guillen (2009) and others studied the short-term supply chain management integrating production and enterprise financing plan, and proposed that a reasonable supply chain management model can affect the operation and financing of enterprises, thus increasing the overall income.
2、 Research status of logistics financial business in China
(1) It started in the material bank. The relevant research on domestic logistics finance began with "material bank". In September 2003, scholars Yu Yang and Feng Gengzhong from the School of Management of Xi'an Jiaotong University re studied the meaning of material bank and came up with a more standardized concept. It is believed that the material bank refers to the warehousing enterprise or logistics center that plays an active role in the financing process. In the business process, the bank will be closely linked with the manufacturer or dealer, so that the bank's credit model, which focuses on real estate loans, will be transformed into a credit model that combines real estate loans and chattel (liquid goods) pledge loans.
(2) Financing warehouse stage. In 2004, Zhu Daoli and Chen Xiangfeng established the theoretical framework of Rongtong Warehouse, which refers to the integration of "Rong" (finance), "Tong" (material circulation) and "Warehouse" (logistics warehousing), with comprehensive management and unified coordination. From 2005 to 2006, Zhu Daoli and others published a series of articles to introduce the concept, structure, operation mode and function of Rongtong Warehouse in detail, thus establishing the standardized mode of Rongtong Warehouse.
(3) The concept of logistics bank and logistics finance is proposed. In 2004, Guangfa took the lead in launching the business of "logistics bank" in the domestic financial sector, and entrusted the supervision of third-party logistics enterprises, led by commercial banks, to reduce the risk of information asymmetry and achieve a win-win situation for banks, logistics enterprises and production enterprises.
In May 2004, Zou Xiao and Tang Yuanqi from the School of Economics of Zhejiang University first put forward the concept of "logistics finance" as "the operation process facing the logistics industry, effectively organizing and adjusting the movement of monetary funds in the logistics field through the application and development of various financial products", defining its connotation and extension, and "logistics finance" was officially established as a new research platform. The research object and direction of logistics finance have been basically established, and a series of operation modes and intermediate businesses have been concluded in combination with practice.
(4) Focus on business model innovation. Gong Jigang (2010), a teacher from the School of Economics of Nankai University, introduced the risk management strategies for third-party logistics enterprises to participate in logistics finance business, and proposed that the risks contained in various common business models of logistics finance must be clarified, so as to take effective countermeasures. Pan Yongming, Ji Fuzhen (2010) and others from Tianjin University of Technology pointed out that logistics enterprises and financial institutions should not blindly copy foreign service models, but must be integrated in combination with the actual situation of China's logistics development.
(5) Focus on risk management. Wu Jian of Chengdu University of Technology and others (2008) introduced the mode and content of modern logistics financial services, analyzed the problems of logistics financial services in China, and studied the innovation and risk prevention of logistics financial services. Mo Jing and Li Junping (2009) of Xining Central Sub branch of the People's Bank of China analyzed the security risk of collateral, bank enterprise communication risk and legal risk from the perspective of risk in logistics finance business, and put forward countermeasures and suggestions for risk prevention.
3、 Summary
To sum up, the theory of logistics finance in China has been developed to a certain extent, defining the main functions of financing, settlement and risk control, and summarizing the service modes of alternative procurement, letter of credit guarantee, warehouse receipt pledge, buyer credit, credit financing and reverse guarantee. However, on the whole, logistics finance has not yet formed a perfect theoretical system, the existing theory still stays on the summary of practical experience, and the theoretical analysis is still fragmented.
reference:
[1]Rachel Zhang Q.Inventory management with asset-based financing[J]. Management Science，2004， （9）.
[2]Weisun，etal.Business models and solution architectures for SMB financing in a supply chain ecosystem[A].2004.
[3]Brueckner JK. Borrower mobility，adverse selection and mortgage points[J]. Journal of Financial Intermediation，1994， （3）.
[4]Brueckner JK. Mortgage default with asymmetric information[J]. Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics，2000， （20）.
Part 3: Model Analysis of Financial Situation
Key words: analysis of current situation and countermeasures of rural financial development
In recent years, China's financial development has made great achievements, but there are still some defects. At the same time, the gap between urban and rural economic development is widening, which makes the rural financial development lagging behind and affects the construction of new countryside to a certain extent. This paper mainly analyzes the current situation of rural financial development in China and puts forward corresponding countermeasures.
1、 Current situation of rural financial development
The development of rural finance is closely related to solving the problems of agriculture, rural areas and farmers in China. In the process of financial reform in China, in 2007, facing the problem of imperfect rural financial structure and operating mechanism, relevant departments proposed some solutions. For a long time, people have paid too much attention to the cities, which has led to the excessive existence of informal finance in rural finance. In rural financial reform, there are not only some practical problems, but also some theoretical problems to be solved. From the perspective of rural financial market demand, rural financial institutions have a great room for development in terms of credit, which is mainly reflected in the funds needed for simple reproduction, private enterprises to expand their business scale, and farmland and water conservancy construction. These funds are in great demand, and they are all areas that rural finance needs to focus on supporting. In terms of the supply of rural financial markets, there are serious irregularities in rural financial markets, and formal financial institutions are very single.
China's rural financial organization system has been formed long ago, and gradually improved with the reform of the economic system, making great contributions to the development of agriculture and rural economy. At present, although China has formed a rural financial system with rural credit cooperatives as the main body, there are still great defects in its structure and function. On the one hand, the credit supply of rural financial institutions has promoted the rapid development of rural economy, but in the actual operation, the utilization efficiency of agricultural credit funds is low, and there is a serious outflow of rural funds. The fund demand for rural economic development cannot be effectively guaranteed; On the other hand, in terms of the coverage of financial services, the coverage of rural financial services is still relatively small, and there are great differences in different regions; Finally, although the practice of rural insurance has gradually begun, the relevant insurance system still needs further improvement.
2、 Countermeasures for rural financial development
In view of various problems in rural finance, in order to better promote the development of agriculture, rural areas and farmers, this paper proposes to improve from the following aspects.
（1） Improve risk compensation policy
Our country should establish relevant risk compensation plans through finance and other departments to compensate for the relevant discount interest that was originally owed to rural credit cooperatives as soon as possible, and peel off the non-performing loans that were originally generated due to policy changes as soon as possible. In order to minimize the risk of agricultural loans, relevant government departments need to work hard to improve the loan guarantee mechanism and credit rating system.
（2） Improve fund return mechanism
Relevant government departments should gradually establish a more effective mechanism for rural capital repatriation to reduce rural capital outflows. Specifically, on the one hand, it is necessary to provide institutional guarantee for curbing the outflow of rural funds, and on the other hand, it is also necessary to curb the outflow of funds through financial fund compensation and other measures. Relevant policy adjustments include increasing the loan lines of local agricultural financial institutions, encouraging rural credit cooperatives to absorb more funds, and investing more funds in rural micro insurance.
China should formulate the Agricultural Investment Law as soon as possible, appropriately adjust the proportion of new deposits and loans on the basis that the financial institutions at the county level can ensure capital security, and also appropriately purchase some financial bonds of agricultural policy nature. According to the economic development of counties, they are divided into poor counties and non poor counties. It is suggested that the business tax and individual income tax should be exempted for poor counties, and half of them should be appropriately reduced for non poor counties. In addition, the state also needs to strengthen measures to monitor and warn the flow of funds at the county level, limit the proportion of funds deposited in rural credit cooperatives and state-owned commercial banks. For financial institutions with a high proportion of funds deposited, they can increase the proportion of their excess reserves through the balance reserve system, and appropriately reduce the interest rate of excess reserves.
（3） Increase policy support
Increase policy support, encourage the continuous development of rural community funds and microfinance institutions, and try to change the situation of single rural financial institutions in China. In recent years, China's rural credit cooperatives have gradually withdrawn from remote areas. This trend is irreversible, so we can only fill the defects of financial services through some rural community funds. To further improve the environment for rural financial development, especially in terms of the basic conditions of rural economy, we need to focus on changes. It is suggested that the financial department of our country should further increase the investment in the rural financial development environment, so that rural infrastructure, agricultural science and technology services and other aspects can be improved at a faster pace. For local governments with better socio-economic development, they can be encouraged to set up guarantee companies or guarantee funds to protect the priority of secured creditor's rights.
First, the continuous development of economic globalization has provided many opportunities for the development of China's financial institutions. We can learn from the successful experience of foreign rural financial system development. Secondly, China's rural finance needs to constantly encourage financial innovation, innovate financial products and services, and meet the needs of China's rural financial development. Thirdly, rural financial institutions in China are mainly rural credit cooperatives. Based on this feature, rural credit cooperatives need to establish branches mainly serving rural areas on the basis of the existing reform. Agricultural Bank of China needs to constantly improve its mechanism and system, give play to its own advantages, and improve the quality and efficiency of credit support. Finally, in terms of policy, the country also needs to increase support for rural financial institutions, further optimize the rural financial ecological environment, and establish a competitive rural financial market.
3、 Conclusion
To sum up, this paper first briefly analyzes the main problems existing in rural finance in China, and then analyzes the solutions. In addition to the above mentioned problems, there are also some other problems in the development of rural finance in China, which also need to be improved in the future development. Due to the limited space and knowledge level of the author, there are still some shortcomings in this paper. I only hope that it can play a role in attracting jade and help the research of related topics.
reference:
[1] Yang Lin, Gao Hongxia. Phenomenon and countermeasures of distorted distribution of rural financial resources - based on data analysis of Yuzhong County, Yongdeng County and Gaolan County in Lanzhou City [J]. Economic Theory and Economic Management, 2012
Chapter 4: Model Analysis of Financial Situation
[Key words] SWOT analysis of Internet finance Porter's five forces model
1. Case background
HB is an Internet finance company founded in 2014. The company provides one-stop financial investment services. Its business mainly involves immigration and overseas investment, mainly American investment projects (funds, real estate, stocks, etc.). The registered capital is 20 million yuan in total, and round A financing has been completed. At present, there are about 40 employees. The company has branches in New York and Beijing. New York employees are mainly responsible for product design and product negotiation, and Beijing employees are mainly responsible for customer service and marketing.
The partner consists of CEO, CBO and CTO. The CEO is a Chinese American. His primary education is in China. After graduating from college, he went to the United States for further study and worked in the United States. He has five years of experience in large funds and equity investment. At present, he is responsible for the formulation of products in the company, and will also supervise and guide the overall business and various modules. CBO is a senior media person who has worked as a writer in many famous domestic financial media and has maintained good relations with major media and financial people.
2. Industry analysis
2.1 Industry Background
The originator of Internet finance should be Yu'e Bao. When Yu'e Bao just came out, everyone was suspicious of it. Whether it was safe and reliable and the difference between it and the bank's function was the most important concern of the public. Internet finance (ITFIN) refers to an emerging finance that relies on Internet tools such as payment, cloud computing, social networks, search engines, apps and so on to realize financing, payment, information intermediary and other businesses.
2.2 Characteristics of Internet finance industry
2.2.1 Big data dominates. With the grasp of big data, Internet finance companies can analyze the overall industry situation and customer situation, launch products suitable for the market, grasp the lifeblood of the market, and survive in the fierce competition. So big data undoubtedly has greater influence on finance than other industries. Moreover, because of the Internet nature of Internet finance, credit is particularly important. Alipay focused on the "trust" card when it was just launched, so that it could gain a firm foothold and win users.
2.2.2 Marketing networking. For Internet finance, it mainly depends on the Internet, so the Internet is particularly important for the Internet finance industry. Nowadays, due to the popularization of the network, computers and mobile phones have become the main channels for people to receive information.
3. Porter's Five Forces Analysis
3.1 Barriers to entry. Under the social background that the country encourages "mass entrepreneurship and innovation" and the opportunity of economic system reform, the barriers to entry of the Internet finance industry are very low, and as a popular industry, it has become the headline choice for people to choose jobs.
3.2 The threat of alternatives. As an Internet finance company providing foreign real estate and fund services, its biggest substitute is stocks. Especially at present, China's A-share market is very popular, which has a great impact on its product sales. In addition, HB mainly aims at overseas investment in the United States. Overseas investment in other countries such as Australia and the United Kingdom will also pose a threat to HB.
3.3 The Buyer's bargaining power. In terms of the seller's bargaining power, the situation of HB is not optimistic. Because of the popularity of Internet finance and the low entry threshold, there are many companies engaged in Internet finance, and customers can buy the same type of products from many other competitors.
3.4 The Seller's bargaining power. HB's products are mainly introduced from the US market. When introducing these products, it needs to negotiate with major securities and fund companies, because the number of competitors in the same industry is so large that their bargaining power is not high.
3.5 Competition between Existing Competitors. In this hot and emerging industry, HB has many existing competitors. As a new company that has not entered the industry for a long time, it has to face some powerful rivals that have already formed in the industry, as well as those that have developed very rapidly in the future.
4. SWOT analysis
4.1 Strengths. The advantage of HB Company is first the advantage of human resources. In the company, there are authorities in the financial field, the media field and the technology field, which correspond to the three most important aspects of the Internet financial industry. These are HB's significant advantages. The second advantage is the advantage of younger employees. The average age of employees in HB is 28.
4.2 Weaknesses. The disadvantage of HB is that none of the three partners has management and financial experience. As an emerging enterprise, the state of start-up in all aspects needs to be managed in an orderly manner. However, the lack of knowledge of partners will lead to chaos and unscientific affairs of the company, and the lack of financial experience will lead to the urgent need for talents in this field.
4.3 Opportunities. The opportunity of HB is the advantage of the situation. Under the wind of Internet+, the Internet finance industry is hot. Moreover, people's living standards and incomes have improved, and they have focused on investment.
4.4 Threats. HB faces many threats. The threat of substitutes in China's stock market has focused on the threat of the seller's market in China, the threat of choosing many buyers with strong bargaining power, and the threat of competitors in the same industry who are also eyeing the Internet+outlets and future competitors who want to enter the industry. These threats make the situation of HB extremely dangerous.
5. Internal problems of the company
5.1 The rules and regulations are not perfect. As an emerging startup company, there are many daily businesses to deal with besides products. At this time, the imperfect rules and regulations threaten the company's work efficiency. For example, the performance appraisal system is not perfect, the communication channels between superiors and subordinates are not smooth, the boundaries of departments are not clear, and the work objectives are not unified. These will lead to the deviation of direction and affect the work effect. The company urgently needs to solve this series of problems and formulate appropriate rules and regulations, so as to put the whole company on the right track, form joint forces and improve efficiency.
5.2 Lack of technical backbone. As an Internet finance company, the distribution of Internet and finance should be 1:1, but now the company has some obvious deviation. Financial Beijing's employees have accounted for almost half, but only four or five employees are engaged in technology, and some are part-time.
6. Future Outlook
From the perspective of industry development, the prospect of Internet finance industry is very good. High social attention and fierce competition are conducive to the rapid development of the industry. As far as HB Company is concerned, the overall framework and model have no major drawbacks. The biggest problem now is the lack of technical staff. After the technical staff are supplemented, it is no problem to further develop and grow with a keen sense of business, active innovation, and pioneering corporate culture.
Chapter 5: Model Analysis of Financial Situation
Key words: input-output; Direct consumption coefficient; Production induction coefficient
DOI：10.19354/ki.42-1616/f.2016.17.20
Finance is the core and lifeblood of economic operation. It can be said that every link of economic operation can not be separated from finance. It can well promote the efficient circulation and use of monetary funds, and reasonably allocate economic resources, which plays an important role in promoting the development of the entire national economy. Therefore, this paper mainly uses the input-output analysis method to explore the current development status of the financial industry in Yunnan Province, focusing on the research and prediction of the development of related industries and changes in financial demand.
1、 The position of the financial industry in the whole economy of Yunnan Province has risen significantly
The financial industry is the bridge and link for the development of other industrial sectors, and its own development can also reflect the operation of the entire economy to a certain extent; At the same time, monetary capital, as an important resource and regulatory tool in the financial industry, is the blood of the whole economy. Finance, which connects various industrial sectors and individual economic activities, is an important medium and tool for a region to manage and control the development and operation of various industries. The financial industry is an important part of the tertiary industry, which plays an important role in supporting and serving the development of other industrial sectors. It can be seen from Figure 1 that the total volume of the financial industry has maintained a steady and rapid growth in the past seven years, and the proportion of the added value generated in that year in the GDP of the whole province has continued to increase, from 3.56% in 2007 to 6.69% in 2014, which indicates that the position of the financial industry in the whole economy of Yunnan Province has been continuously improved.
2、 The dependence of the financial industry on other industries is relatively low
Direct consumption coefficient: reflects the influence of direct consumption quantity among various industrial departments. Generally recorded as (i, j=1，2，…n）， It refers to the quantity of products of the ith department consumed by the production unit of the jth department, and the formula is: A ■=■ (i, j=1，2，…，n）
From its definition and calculation method, its value range is 0 ≤ A ■
From the perspective of the input-output structure of various industries in Yunnan Province in 2012, other industrial sectors in Yunnan Province have a high degree of direct dependence on the financial industry, and the total amount of financial industry consumed by each industrial sector per unit of output value is 0.9444. Among the 42 sectors, water conservancy, environment and public facilities management, real estate, transportation and warehousing, and postal services are the three industries that have the most significant dependence on the financial industry. The output value per unit of production directly consumes 0.1111, 0.0769, and 0.0749 products in the financial industry, while agriculture, waste and waste materials and other three industries have the least direct dependence on financial products, The other 36 industrial sectors have different degrees of direct dependence on the financial industry. This reflects that water conservancy, environment and public facilities management, real estate, transportation and warehousing, and postal services are the three industries with the most significant direct dependence on the financial industry, while agriculture, waste and waste are the three industries with the least direct dependence on the financial industry.
At the same time, it can also be seen that the financial industry in Yunnan Province has a relatively low degree of direct dependence on other industrial sectors. The output value of the financial industry per unit needs to consume only 0.3683 products from other industrial sectors. Among the 42 sectors, the output value of each unit produced by the financial industry directly consumes 0.0668, 0.0569, 0.0439 and 0.0334 products for leasing and business services, finance, paper and printing, cultural, educational and sports goods, accommodation and catering; The amount of products directly consumed by 9 industrial sectors, such as gas production and supply and agriculture, is basically zero; It has direct dependence on other 29 industries to varying degrees. It can be seen that the financial industry in Yunnan Province has relatively significant direct dependence on four industrial sectors, including leasing and business services, and the financial industry itself, while the direct dependence on nine industrial sectors, including gas production and supply, and agriculture, is relatively small. From the perspective of industrial nature, the financial industry has a large degree of direct dependence on some service industries in the tertiary industry, and a relatively small degree of direct dependence on agriculture. From the above analysis, it can be seen that the direct pulling effect of Yunnan's financial industry on other industrial sectors is less than that of other industrial sectors.
The financial industry of Yunnan Province has achieved rapid development in recent years, and its position in the overall economic development has been continuously improved, playing an increasingly important role in supporting and serving the development of other industries. On the other hand, the direct dependence of the financial industry on other industrial sectors is still low, and its development needs further convergence and integration with its industrial sectors; At the same time, it is necessary to give full play to the inducing and driving effect of final consumption and transfer out on the financial industry of Yunnan Province, further expand domestic demand and export, and promote the financial industry of Yunnan Province to achieve better development.
Chapter 6: Model Analysis of Financial Situation
Key words: financial supervision coordination; Separate supervision; improve
CLC No.: F830.9 Document ID No.: A Article No.: 1001-828X (2013) 05-0-01
In the modern economic society, in any economy, the financial industry has become an important part of its national economy. But financial activities also need to pay costs to form huge social wealth. The shadow caused by the US subprime mortgage crisis and the European debt crisis still exists today. After the crisis, the global financial industry has been affected. Governments of various countries have taken various measures to rescue the market. However, the impact of the crisis still affects the real economy, making the world economy suffer a serious recession. Now the international community has basically formed a preliminary consensus. The reason for the financial crisis is that the regulatory coordination mechanism is unreasonable. This requires a re examination of the coordination of financial supervision. China's financial industry is in a period of rapid development. Although there are many foreign advanced experiences for reference, there are certain differences because China's system is only a socialist market economy, which requires us to analyze and think about the coordination of financial supervision in line with China's reality.
1、 Current situation of financial supervision coordination in China
The coordination mechanism of financial supervision plays a very important role. In many laws of China, it is clearly proposed to establish a coordination mechanism of financial supervision. In Article 35 of the Law of the People's Bank of China, the State Council is required to establish a coordination mechanism for financial supervision, and in Article 6 of the Law of the People's Bank of China on Banking Supervision and Administration, the banking supervision and administration institution established by the State Council is required to establish an information coordination mechanism for supervision and administration with other financial supervision and administration institutions.
Since 2000, China's financial supervision department has established a mechanism of division of labor and cooperation. The Central Bank, the CSRC and the CIRC will discuss it quarterly through a tripartite joint supervision meeting. In 2003, the supervisory functions of banks, financial asset management companies and other deposit financial institutions in the charge of the People's Bank of China were transferred to the CBRC. In June 2003, the CBRC, the CSRC and the CIRC established a special working group to establish a coordination mechanism.
In the process of the impact of the financial tsunami on the world, a financial regulatory coordination mechanism of "one bank, three meetings" has been established. Through the coordination of the Central Bank, CSRC, CBRC and CIRC have made many achievements in maintaining the stability of China's capital market, preventing and resolving financial risks, supervising products, markets and operating institutions, and making positive contributions to the development of China's market and industry. In the practice of the coordination mechanism of financial supervision, the following achievements have been achieved: (1) The implementation of consolidated supervision marks the beginning of coordinated supervision; (2) Good and effective interaction has been formed between relevant regulatory departments; (3) Coordination between regulatory authorities has gradually increased.
2、 Realistic Obstacles in the Coordination of Financial Supervision in China
（1） The results of information exchange are not many and the effect is not outstanding
China's financial industry has developed quite rapidly, and has shown the characteristics of comprehensiveness and integration. These characteristics require that under the mode of separate supervision of China's financial industry, different administrative bodies of the financial industry must strengthen mutual information sharing and exchange as soon as possible. Although China has established the financial ten day meeting system of the State Council, the financial supervision joint meeting system and the anti money laundering supervision cooperation mechanism, which can achieve regular exchanges. In the specific practice process, it is to implement the administrative management of the financial industry in different fields, and general information exchange can meet the requirements, but the central bank has the responsibility of commanding the overall situation and stabilizing the society, It is more necessary to accurately judge the unstable factors of the system, which requires more comprehensive and sufficient financial supervision information. At the same time, it is also necessary to monitor and prevent financial risks, and also to conduct in-depth information exchange. At present, the information shared and exchanged cannot meet the demand for substantive analysis of financial institutions to maintain financial stability.
（2） Low level of financial supervision
Compared with the developed countries in Europe and the United States, there is a big gap in the quality of the staff, the concept of supervision and the means of supervision in China's financial supervision institutions, which makes it difficult for financial supervision to meet the needs of the development of China's financial industry and the international financial industry. Especially in the absence of senior supervisors, many senior supervisors are difficult to supervise within their own responsibilities, let alone promote the development of regulatory coordination. Therefore, from the current situation, due to the limitation of regulatory level, regulatory coordination is still more at the theoretical level.
（3） The transparency of the financial supervision system is not high, which brings difficulties to the coordination of financial supervision
Although China has made remarkable progress in the construction of the financial supervision system, there are still shortcomings in the system, legal basis and supervision procedures, especially in transparency. Only a fully transparent regulatory system can enable regulators to provide effective supervision for the stable development and standardized operation of the financial system, promote the deepening of coordination, and effectively evade various unnecessary and improper regulatory acts. A fully transparent regulatory system is also an important prerequisite for coordination and cooperation in financial regulation.
3、 Measures to Improve the Coordination of Financial Supervision in China
（1） Implement the financial supervision coordination mechanism of "one bank, three meetings" and promote in-depth information exchange
The implementation of the "one bank, three meetings" financial supervision coordination mechanism under the separate supervision system in China can not only improve the relationship between the administrative bodies of the financial industry, but also effectively promote the information exchange between them. Because of the subjective factors of departmental interests and the differences in emphasis among various administrations, as well as technical problems, the financial risk information department of "one bank, three meetings" can effectively communicate and share information, and the use of information is also difficult to satisfy people. In view of this, it is necessary to enrich the supervision methods of the central bank, Let the Central Bank have the right to directly obtain various relevant statements and materials from other financial institutions, and more directly and generally have the right to conduct on-site inspection. On this basis, combined with regular financial stability information exchange, it can promote the improvement of financial supervision and coordination mechanism from the information level.
（2） Cultivate senior supervision talents and improve the supervision talent team
With the rapid development of the financial industry, a variety of new products and new ideas emerge in endlessly, and the requirements for financial regulators are also getting higher and higher. In order to promote the development of supervision, financial supervisors not only need to master the laws and regulations, normal and relevant financial business knowledge in the field of supervision, but also need to be familiar with relevant matters in other financial supervision fields, and strive to improve their own supervision concepts and actively improve the current supervision means. Therefore, we need to attach importance to the cultivation of complex talents. While introducing senior supervisory talents, we should build a salary exchange mechanism for supervisors through training and self-study, and send staff to each other for learning and practice.
（3） Establish the coordination and supervision mechanism of financial supervision and promote the transparency of financial supervision mechanism
The lack of transparency in the financial supervision system is due to the fact that the current legal department can effectively sanction illegal acts, while the supervision mechanism of the regulatory agency itself is difficult to play a role. According to the coordination mechanism of financial supervision, we can build its coordination and supervision mechanism of financial supervision, establish a special supervision department, form a complete set of coordination and supervision system of financial supervision, promote its transparency, effectively supervise the illegal acts of financial supervision institutions, prevent illegal acts and unreasonable acts, and form a binding force on financial supervision institutions, Improve the transparency of financial supervision.
In short, to promote the development of China's financial industry, we cannot ignore the improvement of the coordination mechanism of financial supervision. To this end, we need to clearly recognize the difficulties in the current coordination of financial supervision and actively improve.
reference:
Chapter 7: Model Analysis of Financial Situation
[Key words] Development of financial informatization
CLC No.: DF433 Document ID: A
preface
Finance is the core of modern science and technology, and science and technology are the primary productive forces. In a global open system, the efficiency of financial operations and modern scientific and technological capabilities largely determine a country's economic competitiveness. With the development of social economy and the progress of financial informatization, modern financial industry has become an important driving force of a country's social and economic development and an important part of China's competitiveness in an open global economic system.
1、 Concept of financial informatization
Financial informatization refers to the application of modern information technology in all aspects of financial business and financial management, the in-depth development and extensive use of financial and economic information resources, and the acceleration of the process of financial modernization. This process is developing, dynamic and deepening. Financial informatization is an integral part of national informatization. It is closely related to and complements the informatization of the whole society, the informatization of other macro management departments, and the informatization of residents and enterprises. With the development of information technology and economic globalization, financial services and financial innovation constitute the core of modern economy.
2、 Current situation of financial informatization
Since the reform and opening up, with the continuous application of international advanced concepts and technologies, China's financial informatization has achieved leapfrog development by taking advantage of the late mover advantage. The ability of scientific and technological personnel has been greatly improved, and the level of scientific and technological management has been steadily improved. However, we know that compared with developed countries, the establishment of China's financial computerized information system started relatively late. Therefore, after China's accession to the WTO, the gradually open financial industry is facing strong competition from foreign financial institutions. In this way, we must take precautions to accelerate the construction and development of financial informatization, and thus promote the development of China's financial industry. Improve and improve financial services and innovation capabilities, comprehensively shape the new finance in the new century, provide a strong guarantee for the national economy, and have confidence in an invincible position. With the continuous development of China's computer technology, China's financial informatization has also entered the stage of business system integration and data analysis concentration. At this stage, the information personnel of the most basic financial institutions have changed their work content from the previous comprehensive management and system research and development to the implementation of superior standards, The focus of the work is to ensure the security of the financial network in the region. As one of the most widely and deeply applied industries of information technology, the informatization of China's financial industry began in the mid-1980s of the last century, and has basically formed a complete financial information system for more than 20 years, but China's current financial informatization process has also encountered difficulties, The main reason is that there is a serious lack of dual talents with high financial industry and information level. The lack of talents has seriously hindered the process of financial informatization in China. Therefore, if we want to develop financial informatization, we must cultivate high-level and compound financial informatization talents.
3、 Deficiency of financial informatization
Although China's financial informatization has made many achievements, compared with developed countries, China's financial informatization infrastructure construction has not been fully in place, and there is still much room for progress in the richness, perfection, management level and innovation ability of the application, mainly in the following aspects:
1. The theoretical research on financial informatization is relatively weak
Due to the late start of informatization in China and its emphasis on rapid development, the research on infrastructure construction strategy, financial technology orientation system, financial information service system, financial informatization support environment, organization management mechanism and talent incentive mechanism is ignored, and a relatively complete knowledge system is lacking.
2. The financial industry failed to form unified technical standards and business norms
Due to the lack of unified norms and standards in China's financial informatization construction, enterprises have no clear direction in informatization construction, and the pace is not uniform. Inconsistencies in the interfaces and data standards of financial institutions will lead to difficulties in system integration and hinder the further development of China's financial informatization.
3. The security of financial information system needs to be strengthened
Since the information system construction in China is not standardized, the information systems and networks of many financial enterprises in China use equipment produced by foreign manufacturers, which makes the current financial information system in China have great security risks.
4. The development of financial enterprise products and the centralized application of data lag behind the construction of infrastructure and the development of business
At present, the computer application system of domestic financial enterprises focuses on counter business handling and accounting business processing, which is difficult to meet the needs of personalized financial value-added business. At the same time, there is a lack of collection, storage, mining, analysis and utilization of a large amount of management information, customer information and industrial information. Most financial enterprises only focus on their own business informatization, ignoring the development of decision-making informatization.
5. The realization of data centralization exposes some problems such as security, speed, capacity and disaster recovery
Data centralization is to centralize the business and data of each branch to a unified data center, and all businesses are processed in the background. However, centralization has increased the insecurity of the system. How to safely and efficiently manage the data is a problem that needs to be considered in the development of financial informatization in China.
4、 Future development trend of financial informatization in China
The development trend of financial informatization is progressing with the financial development trend, and the financial development trend is generated in the interaction between finance and information technology. The future development trend of China's financial informatization mainly includes the following aspects.
1. Attach great importance to the impact of financial informatization and fully tap the value of existing information systems
According to the statistics of the American banking industry, on average, 13 big banks in the United States use information technology to implement the reengineering plan every year. After the reengineering of banks, the average return on assets and return on capital have increased from 1% and 14% to 1.8% and 25% respectively, while the average cost-benefit ratio has decreased from 63% to 40% - 50%, The important role of information technology in finance has risen from backstage support to foreground profit creation. The informatization construction of domestic banks is advancing rapidly. While focusing on the construction of new projects, we should attach great importance to the full use of existing information systems, and deeply tap and play the value of existing systems.
2. From using information technology to simply store and process data to directly provide customers with various services
With the development of retail business in the western banking industry, customer service information processing systems that directly face customers are increasingly prominent in the process of banking informatization. At present, the information processing systems commonly used in western banking industry mainly include large-scale general-purpose information processing systems and customer service information processing systems, but the latter has gradually replaced the former. The large-scale general-purpose information processing system is a relatively traditional information processing system. Its main function is to save and process data, and it is mainly used in account management. It can no longer adapt to the fierce service competition trend in the banking industry, and is gradually being eliminated.
3. Pay attention to the training of compound talents who understand both financial business and information technology expertise
In the future, to create a competitive business or product, an effective information technology support system is indispensable. The general mode of China's financial sector is that the business sector proposes business objectives and business processes, and then communicates with information technology personnel. Therefore, the quality and speed of the final product depends on the effect of communication between the two departments, which obviously does not conform to the characteristics of the financial information age. Information technology has penetrated all links from business to management to decision-making, and all fields from channel accounting to design. Whether it is to design business products, or to analyze customer system requirements, whether it is to optimize business processes, or to dig and use existing information data in depth, it needs a group of compound talents who both understand banking business and have professional knowledge of information technology to complete efficiently.
conclusion
If China's financial industry wants to develop vigorously, it must seize the opportunity. We need to realize that strengthening innovation, improving service level, preventing financial risks, and improving core competitiveness are urgent tasks at present, all of which cannot be separated from the support and guarantee of financial informatization. At the same time, foreign financial institutions have begun to enter China more and more. In order to maintain competitiveness, China's financial industry must develop quickly, well and steadily, because China's financial informatization construction bears a major historical mission.
[References]
Chapter 8: Model Analysis of Financial Situation
Key words: financial informatization; Information technology; development strategy
China's financial informatization has gone through more than 20 years. With the efforts of tens of thousands of financial science and technology staff, it has made great achievements. From scratch, from existing to refined, from point to area, it has initially built a mature and complete financial information system. During this period of development, financial informatization work has formed a development model with financial enterprises and industry supervision departments as the core, that is, under the leadership of the People's Bank of China, China Securities Regulatory Commission, China Insurance Regulatory Commission, China Banking Regulatory Commission and other industry supervision institutions, each financial enterprise determines the development strategy of financial informatization according to its own actual situation.
However, under this development mode, there are also some blind spots in the financial informatization work, that is, many strategic issues cannot be solved. The main problem is that the makers of financial informatization strategy can only focus more on specific issues within each enterprise or industry from the perspective of financial enterprises or from the perspective of relevant regulatory agencies. From the perspective of national economic and social development, how to plan the development strategy of financial informatization, how to fully mobilize and reasonably allocate various social resources, how to strengthen the coordination between various enterprises and industries, how to determine a unified and scientific standard, and how to avoid the waste of resources caused by repeated construction and development are all problems that need to be solved urgently.
1、 Concept of financial informatization
Since the 1990s, the rapid development of information technology with the Internet as the core and global economic integration has profoundly affected the pattern of international competition and the way of human survival. Under the historical background of this huge transformation of economic development pattern and transformation of basic technology platform, China is facing new opportunities and challenges. Studying the overall strategy of China's financial system reform and financial informatization from a broader perspective, realizing the integration of financial information systems, and comprehensively improving financial competitiveness are the practical needs to promote the sustainable development of the national economy and respond to the accession to the WTO.
Financial informatization refers to the application of modern information technology in all aspects of financial business and financial management, the in-depth development and extensive use of financial and economic information resources, and the acceleration of the process of financial modernization. This process is developing, dynamic and deepening. Financial informatization is an integral part of national informatization. It is closely related to and complements the informatization of the whole society, the informatization of other macro management departments, and the informatization of residents and enterprises. With the development of information technology and economic globalization, financial services and financial innovation constitute the core of modern economy.
2、 Development status of domestic financial informatization
The construction of China's financial computerization began in the 1970s. Through the development stage of "the sixth five-year plan", "the seventh five-year plan", "the eighth five-year plan", "the ninth five-year plan", "the ninth five-year plan", and "the tenth five-year plan", a nationwide financial computerization service system has gradually formed from scratch, from small to large. It is mainly manifested in the following aspects:
1. Electronic equipment has reached a considerable scale By the end of 1999, the banking system had been equipped with more than 700 sets of large and medium-sized computers, more than 6000 sets of minicomputers, more than 500000 PCs and servers, and the coverage of electronic business outlets has reached more than 95%. By the end of June 2001, financial institutions had installed more than 49000 automatic teller machines (ATMs) and 334000 point of sale terminals (POS).
2. Most of the national financial institutions have completed the construction of the Intranet. Most of the national financial institutions have initially completed the construction of the Intranet of their own systems, and the network covers all provincial capital cities and prefecture level cities in the country. The financial system has cooperated with the telecommunications department to build a backbone network of financial data communication frame relay that connects more than 250 cities across the country and supports voice, data, image and other information transmission and multiple communication protocols to support the transmission of financial data.
3. Bank informatization has taken shape
(1) A nationwide electronic clearing system has been initially established. During the "Eighth Five Year Plan" period, the People's Bank of China has built a dedicated financial satellite network and an electronic inter-bank system, and has opened 1409 electronic inter-bank transceiver stations, covering all prefecture level cities and more than 1000 developed counties in China. In 2000, the country forwarded more than 31.63 million nostro accounts, with a transfer transaction amount of 23548.8 billion yuan. During the "Ninth Five Year Plan" period, national commercial banks basically completed their own electronic exchange systems, and customers' cross regional transfer business could be received within 24 hours. Commercial banks and securities companies exchange securities accounting information through the bank securities transfer system.
(2) The bank card business has developed rapidly. Electronic payment tools, especially bank card business, have developed rapidly. By the end of September 2001, there were 55 card issuers in China, with a total number of more than 358 million cards, nearly 200000 international cards, 130000 bank outlets nationwide that can accept bank cards, and 150000 stores, hotels, restaurants and other specially invited merchants that can accept bank cards, All financial institutions have installed a total of 51000 ATMs and nearly 35 POS terminals. The central bank card information exchange center and 18 city bank card information exchange centers have been established. In addition, China Financial Authentication Center (CFCA) and payment gateway have been opened, supporting the development of online banking and e-commerce. (3) The People's Bank of China has built a videoconference system, an electronic document transmission system, and an e-mail system covering all the central branches of the country, which has improved the central bank's office efficiency and led the ministries and commissions of the State Council in transmitting confidential red headed documents through the network. The credit registration and consultation system has basically achieved nationwide networking. Remarkable progress has been made in the construction of the data centralization project of commercial banks and online financial services. China's modern payment system has been put into production and trial operation in some cities, which will greatly improve China's interbank clearing efficiency, accelerate capital flow and promote economic development.
4. Breakthrough has been made in the electronic construction of the insurance industry. Up to now, nearly 10000 insurance institutions across the country have installed highly efficient computer systems, and various insurance businesses have been processed online, with daily processing volume reaching hundreds of thousands. A unified financial management software has been deployed in more than 5000 insurance independent accounting units nationwide, realizing a high concentration of financial processing. In addition, with the establishment and improvement of the national insurance three-level network, various online insurance applications will also have a substantial progress.
5. The electronic construction of the securities industry has achieved leapfrog development. The electronic construction of the securities industry has achieved leapfrog development at a high starting point. With the establishment of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges as the symbol, the informatization construction of the securities industry has been started. Through several stages, such as quasi real-time market sending, paperless custody, computer automatic matching and networking of remote trading centers, Now it has entered the whole process electronic trading mode, and paperless electronic trading has been promoted in securities business departments across the country. After decades of efforts, China has initially formed a multi-functional and open financial information system, which has laid a solid foundation for the transformation of China's financial industry from "electronic" to "information" and the full realization of financial information. [Thesis website Www. LunWenData. Com]
3、 The gap between China's financial informatization and developed countries
Although China's financial informatization construction has made great achievements, and the application of advanced technology is basically the same as that of foreign countries, there is still a big gap in operational efficiency, information integration and information service level compared with developed countries, mainly reflected in the following aspects:
1. The research on the development strategy of financial informatization is weak. The research institute of financial informatization development strategy aims to solve the development direction and strategy of financial informatization, mainly including the research on infrastructure construction strategy, financial technology introduction system, financial information service system, financial informatization support environment, organization management mechanism and talent incentive mechanism. China's work in these areas is relatively weak, and no research system has been formed.
2. The technical standards and business specifications of financial informatization are not perfect. China's financial informatization construction lacks a master plan, which is reflected in the lack of a clear direction, no unified and coordinated steps, and many repetitive constructions. The technical standards and business specifications have also failed to form a unified system, and cannot meet the requirements of international integration. The business online processing systems of financial institutions themselves also have problems such as inconsistent interfaces and data standards. These not only bring difficulties to information exchange and system integration, but also easily form various security risks.
3. The security and reliability of the financial information system need to be improved urgently Although China's financial industry has made many achievements in the security construction of the information system, due to the disorder and non-standard development for a long time, and the vast majority of hardware and software products use foreign technology, China's existing financial information system has many security risks. The "9.11" incident also gave a profound enlightenment to China's financial industry, that is, we must improve the security and reliability of the financial information system and ensure the normal operation of the national economic lifeline as much as possible.
4. The cross industry and cross sector financial network has not yet formed. China's financial institutions have successively built their own intranet systems for the needs of operation management and business expansion, but the interconnection between institutions has not yet been achieved, which has affected the sharing of financial information and the improvement of financial services. In addition, the banking information network has not been interconnected with the finance and taxation, customs, insurance and other networks. Information sharing between different economic sectors and industries cannot be achieved. The trend of the country's macroeconomic operation and social development cannot be quickly reflected, which directly affects the effective implementation of the country's monetary policy and financial supervision.
5. The integration degree of financial information system is not high, and the in-depth analysis is not enough. The development of financial industry service products and the application of management information lag behind the rapid development of information infrastructure construction and business. On the one hand, the traditional financial information system with business as the core focuses on the processing of counter accounting business, which is difficult to meet the needs of high-level customers in multiple fields and personalized value-added financial services, and also difficult to meet the requirements of social and economic development for high-quality, multi-functional and all-round services; On the other hand, there is a lack of integration, analysis, mining and utilization of a large amount of management information, customer information, industrial information, etc., and there is a large gap in credit asset quality management, customer centered provision of convenient financial services, and modern payment and settlement tools, which leads to uncontrolled risk management, loss of business opportunities Inadequate innovation of financial products and services.
6. The financial innovation capability based on information technology is not enough. Information technology, with computer technology, communication technology and network technology as the core, has fundamentally changed the operating environment and internal action mode of the financial industry, becoming the main driving force for the reform and innovation of the financial industry. According to the level of bank application network technology, Massachusetts Institute of Technology divides bank informatization into five levels: local application, internal integration, business process redesign, organizational structure redesign, and business scope redesign. At present, the application of network technology by domestic banks is limited to the first two levels, and is still in the primary stage of informatization, The potential of information technology represented by network technology is far from being released.
7. The management system and talent mechanism are not perfect. Compared with developed countries, China's financial informatization construction has a big gap in management system and talent mechanism. The existing scientific and technological management system and human resource mechanism of China's financial industry cannot meet the needs of competitive environment and information development, and will face a huge impact after China's accession to the WTO: on the one hand, China's financial industry lacks a management concept and operation mode under the guidance of modern management science, and the system is bloated and inefficient; On the other hand, China's financial industry has not yet formed a reasonable talent incentive mechanism. It is difficult to introduce talents, and it is even more difficult to retain talents.
8. The legal and policy environment of financial informatization needs to be improved. The legal and policy environment is a strong guarantee for the healthy development of financial informatization construction. With the wide application of information technology in the financial field, the legitimacy and effectiveness of some technologies related to financial informatization (such as electronic signature, electronic certificate, etc.) have become the focus of controversy, and need to be defined by national legislation. At the same time, the development of financial informatization also depends on the strong support of national industrial policies and tax policies, and the establishment and improvement of the national credit system.
4、 Research on the Development Strategy of Financial Informatization in China
It is necessary to explore the development strategy of financial informatization, improve China's financial competitiveness and shorten the gap with developed countries to meet the challenges of international financial industry and build a modern financial system that is in line with international standards. The overall framework of the national "Tenth Five Year Plan" scientific and technological breakthrough project "Development and Application Demonstration of Key Technologies of Financial Informatization" is: strategic research is the leader of financial informatization, network construction is the foundation of financial informatization, standards and security are the guarantee of financial informatization, and the key technologies of banking, insurance and securities are the application of financial informatization. The following goals will be achieved through the construction of financial informatization:
1. Formulate a financial informatization development plan that conforms to the national conditions, is innovative, practical and sustainable, and points out the direction and development path for China's financial informatization construction;
2. Build the basic environment necessary for the development of financial informatization, including formulating major business norms and technical standards in the field of financial informatization, building computer networks and other infrastructure, and providing unified enterprise standards for the production of financial informatization products;
3. By the end of 2003, we will have completed the construction of a cross system network interconnection platform covering hundreds of thousands of financial institutions across the country, basically realizing the integration of financial services, the networking of e-commerce payments, and the networking of bank cards;
4. Basically realize the automation, networking and management modernization of bank information system security and confidentiality, and lay a solid foundation for the establishment of a complete bank information system security system;
5. Establish a preliminary bank credit risk assessment system, provide favorable information support and scientific analysis tools for the financial system to carry out financial risk warning and prevention, and drive the construction of the credit system under the conditions of market economy in China;
6. Realize the network operation of the financial industry, carry out new financial services such as customer center, online banking, online securities and online insurance, and achieve high level results in the theoretical research and practice of financial innovation. In short, tackling key problems in financial informatization technology will build a basic framework for future financial informatization, and this framework will become the foundation for China's financial industry to achieve sustainable development for a long time in the future. [LunWenDataCom]
reference:
[1] People's Bank of China. Research on the Development Strategy of Financial Informatization, Draft for Comments on the Work Program [EB] Beijing: Jinwang Online, March 2003
[2] Lu Xiaobing. Promoting financial informatization and promoting financial system reform -- Introduction to the National Tenth Five Year Science and Technology Research Project [J] China Financial Computer, January 2002
[3] Tang Shiwei, Tong Yunhai. Research on the Current Situation of China's Financial Informatization and Development Strategies during the Tenth Five Year Plan Period [J] Beijing: China Financial Computer, August 2002
[4] Dong Liying. Looking at China's Financial Informatization Tackling Construction from WTO Entry [J] China Financial Computer 2002.2
[5] Wang Yuanlong Research on China's Banking Development Strategy after China's accession to 456 [J] Financial Research 2000.3
[6] Zhang Lizhou. On the Impact of Financial Informatization on the Financial Industry [J] Beijing: Research on Financial Issues, March 2002
Chapter 9: Model Analysis of Financial Situation
Key words: rural financial system, financial repression, countermeasures
1、 Introduction
At present, the deep-seated contradiction that restricts the development of agriculture and rural economy has not been completely eliminated, and the situation that rural economic and social development lags behind has not been fundamentally changed. As the core of rural economic development, the perfection of the rural financial system is an effective guarantee for China's rural economic growth and farmers' income increase, which plays an important role in the realization of the construction of a new socialist countryside and the solution of the "three rural issues". The General Secretary stressed that the reform and development of rural finance should be the focus of future financial work, efforts should be made to improve the construction of the basic financial service system, give full play to the role of various rural financial organizations, and accelerate the establishment and improvement of a wide coverage, multi-level and sustainable rural financial system that adapts to the characteristics of "agriculture, rural areas and farmers". For this reason, the central government issued the Decision on Several Major Issues Concerning Promoting Rural Reform and Development and two consecutive No. 1 documents of the central government in 2009 and 2010, which have raised the policy support for rural financial development to an unprecedented height and given sufficient attention.
2、 Current situation of rural financial system
China's financial system reform began in 1993 and has been developing for 20 years. At the beginning of the reform, the reform and development direction of the four major state-owned banks was defined: to establish a perfect modern enterprise system and to maximize profits. As a result, some commercial banks in various countries have adjusted their business strategies one after another, merging their branches and business outlets in rural and underdeveloped areas, and collecting the loan authority. As the main financial institution in rural areas, Agricultural Bank of China, after other state-owned commercial banks merged the rural financial market, did not choose a blank in business, but also adopted the following policy measures to shrink the rural financial market. It is particularly noteworthy that both state-owned commercial banks and joint-stock commercial banks are unwilling to invest capital in agricultural projects with long term, slow effect and high risk under the constraints of the principles of profit maximization and resource allocation effectiveness, which directly leads to the annual weakening of financial institutions' investment in agricultural credit. By the end of 2010, the number of county service outlets of banking financial institutions nationwide had reached 130000, accounting for 2/3 of banking financial institutions nationwide. The balance of county loans was 12.3 trillion, accounting for 22% of the balance of loans of financial institutions nationwide, of which the balance of farmers' loans was 2.6 trillion yuan, accounting for 23.1% of the balance of agricultural loans, and the new agricultural credit was 2.63 trillion yuan. According to the statistics released by the CBRC, 114 of 395 new rural financial institutions of three categories have been approved to be established nationwide, and the balance of deposits in the new rural financial institutions that have been opened is 75.1 billion yuan. Although rural finance has made great achievements, according to the survey, in recent years, the proportion of agricultural loan balance of various financial institutions in the national loan balance shows a downward trend year by year. However, due to the limited financing and service level of rural credit cooperatives, the problem of "difficult loans" is extremely common in rural areas at present. About 70% of farmers rely on private lending to solve their capital needs. Many township enterprises also turn to social financing and private lending because they have no access to the financial sector.
3、 Problems in the current rural financial system
（1） Weakening of service function
Compared with cities, agricultural income is low, farmers' income is not high, and rural living is scattered and transportation is not convenient. As a result, loans to agricultural farmers and rural enterprises are unprofitable or even loss, which leads to the slow development of rural finance, especially the number of financial institutions and businesses below the county level are facing the dilemma of shrinking year by year. At present, China's rural finance is basically still in the problems of inflexible institutional setting, single business, extensive management, etc. Its reform progress lags far behind urban finance, and it is difficult to meet the requirements of serving "agriculture, rural areas and farmers".
（2） Unclear function positioning
At present, the financial service system in the development of China's county economy is relatively single, and the supply of credit funds is insufficient. The county branches of China's commercial banks mainly absorb deposits, and the funds absorbed from rural areas are more invested in industries and regions with high returns. However, the function and nature of rural credit cooperatives' financial institutions are not clear enough, the level of agricultural support services is not high, and it is difficult to provide production funds for key farmers and SMEs in rural areas. As a policy bank, Agricultural Development Bank is difficult to play a positive role in guiding due to its relatively narrow business scope and single institutional setup.
（3） Weak risk resistance
According to statistics, by the end of 2007, the non-performing loan rate of Agricultural Bank of China was 26.13%, the non-performing loan rate of Agricultural Development Bank was 54.11%, and the non-performing loan rate of rural credit cooperatives also reached 16.19%, which shows that the asset quality of rural financial institutions is generally low. In addition, the capital adequacy ratio of rural financial institutions is seriously insufficient, basically negative.
（4） Poor business environment
Compared with the urban competitive environment with relatively complete systems, rural finance generally belongs to low-level competition, and vicious competition is relatively serious. Due to the lack of a credit reporting system in rural areas, the phenomenon of debt evasion is more serious. In addition, the law enforcement environment is poor, and the credit environment construction is backward. In terms of the regulatory environment, rural finance is mainly set according to administrative divisions, This has brought great inconvenience to the supervision, and local administrative intervention will exist to varying degrees.
4、 Countermeasures
（1） Cultivate a good macro environment for rural financial development [1]
A good macro environment is conducive to the continuous improvement of rural financial services. At present, it is necessary to break the urban-rural dual economic pattern and rationalize the prices of "three rural" products and factors. The government should increase policy adjustment efforts from the aspects of finance and taxation, trade, employment, etc., completely change the irrational status quo of agriculture and rural social resource distribution, so as to make agricultural comparative income reasonable and increase farmers' income. Local governments should encourage the establishment of rural old-age, medical and other basic social security systems that are suitable for local development in various ways, increase the transfer payments of finance at all levels to "agriculture, rural areas and farmers", and activate the rural consumer market. The further institutionalization, concretization and operationalization of "industry feeding back agriculture and cities feeding back rural areas" will enhance the development potential of rural economy.
（2） The government should increase support for rural financial policies
Learn from the advanced experience of developed countries, give full play to the government's dynamic role, introduce various policies and measures, and give strong support to rural financial development. To this end, the government can play an active role in the following aspects: improve the system design of financial support for policy financial institutions, adhere to the principle of earmarking funds for specific purposes, and provide extensive financial support for agricultural development; Provide financial support for the construction and development of rural financial institutions in remote areas, and appropriately peel off non-performing loans from financial institutions in these areas to reduce the financial burden of rural financial institutions; We will formulate preferential policies such as tax incentives and interest subsidies, and encourage financial institutions to provide loans to rural areas.
（3） Develop a multi-level and diversified rural financial institution system
Repositioning the functions of rural financial institutions, among which the Agricultural Development Bank, as a policy bank, should focus on playing its financial role in rural infrastructure construction, rural ecological environment construction, and supporting key areas and industries; For rural commercial banks, we should strengthen guidance and encourage commercial banks to increase investment in agricultural areas; The development of rural credit cooperatives should be based on serving the community development. At the same time, the government should also strengthen the protection measures for the cooperative economic system in terms of policy and management so that rural credit cooperatives can truly play the role of the main force of rural finance. In addition, we should open the rural financial market in accordance with diversified and competitive standards, and encourage and support the development of diversified financial organizations suitable for rural needs.
（4） Improve the rural financial supervision system
The national banking regulatory authority should, in strict accordance with the regulatory requirements of capital constraints and risk orientation, effectively strengthen the prudential supervision of financial institutions at the grass-roots level, especially at the county level, and explore differentiated regulatory measures and methods in light of the characteristics of agricultural and county SME loans. In view of the rapid development of local financial institutions at the county level in China, in strict accordance with the general requirements of the "Twelfth Five Year Plan" on "improving the financial management system of local governments", we will accelerate the exploration and construction of the central and local hierarchical supervision system for small loan companies, private mutual aid organizations and other institutions, and follow the principle of "who approves the establishment, who is responsible for supervision, who handles risks", It is specified that the provincial or municipal people's government should bear the responsibility for risk disposal and implement non prudential supervision. The central level is mainly responsible for formulating pilot policies, clarifying development plans, carrying out dynamic monitoring, guiding service direction and preventing system risks.
（5） Strengthening the legalization of rural finance [2]
Governments at all levels should effectively strengthen the legal construction of rural finance, further standardize the order of rural financial market, create a good legal environment for deepening rural financial reform, and explore the establishment of an effective system of rural financial laws and regulations and a sound incentive mechanism for capital repatriation. At present, the key point is to accelerate the formulation of complete rural financial laws and regulations, further provide a legal environment for the construction and optimization of the rural financial ecological environment, further clarify the legal status and responsibility of rural financial institutions through the formulation of laws and regulations, so as to standardize the market entry and exit mechanism of rural financial institutions; Constantly promote the improvement of the legal system of guarantee, so that farmers' land contractual management rights are more flexible and specific.
（6） Improve the risk sharing mechanism of agricultural economy [3]
Farmers' economic strength is weak, their ability to resist risks is poor, and China's current financial institutions generally have problems such as high risks and low personnel quality. Therefore, in rural financial reform and development, we should always pay attention to risk management. To cover the construction of risk prevention and control system to all credit businesses, we should pay special attention to: vigorously develop agricultural insurance, improve the futures market of agricultural products, so as to improve and strengthen the government's macro-control management of agriculture and rural economy.
reference:
[1] Chu Jitian. Problems and Countermeasures of Rural Finance in China [J] China Finance, 2010 (22): 63-65
