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Chapter 1: Contemporary World Economy and Policy Model
Summarizing last year and planning this year are the main topics of the upcoming Fifth Session of the Ninth National People's Congress. The shock wave of recession of the world's economic giants rippled around the world, and China's economy continued to move forward on the platform of moderate and rapid growth against the wind. After withstanding the Asian financial crisis in 1997, the immunity and resistance of China's economy have further strengthened. However, we are not only faced with foreign aggression, but also have internal worries. We must have a sense of anxiety.
Expansive fiscal policy reveals long-term tendency
Since 1998, our government's fiscal policy has changed from tightening policy to expanding policy. The so-called active fiscal policy, whose basic feature is to increase the deficit and increase the issuance of national debt as the main content, belongs to the expansionary finance. The implementation of active fiscal policy and prudent monetary policy has stimulated the growth of investment and consumption, and the economy has maintained a trend of rapid growth. The policy effect is obvious. However, the expansionary fiscal policy, which should fade out and transform now, has shown a long-term trend. The rapid economic growth has become dependent on the expansionary policy, while the latent fiscal and financial risks make it difficult to sustain the expansionary policy. This is a difficult problem facing the current policy choice.
In 2001, GDP grew by 7.3%, a decrease of nearly one percentage point over the previous year, and showed a trend of slowing down quarter by quarter. The decline in overall economic growth indicates that the effect of expansion policy is diminishing; After the state-owned enterprises have basically achieved the three-year goal of getting rid of difficulties, the costs and costs of getting rid of difficulties have not yet been digested, and the benefits have fallen back, the profit growth has continued to decline, some enterprises have returned to difficulties after getting rid of difficulties, and the losses of loss making enterprises have increased; The investment of state-owned units continued to rise with the support of government bonds, which formed a contrast with the lack of investment of non-state-owned units, indicating that in addition to government bond investment, the self accumulation mechanism of various market entities is still weak; Prices have turned from a slow recovery to a comprehensive decline. Last year, retail prices fell by 0.8%, the ex factory prices of industrial means of production fell by 1.2%, and the ex factory prices of means of subsistence fell by 1.5%; The unemployment rate remains high, making it more difficult to find jobs. Last year, nearly 6 million laid-off workers failed to find jobs. The actual urban unemployment rate is 2-3 percentage points higher than the registered unemployment rate; The expanded fiscal and monetary policies are weak in increasing farmers' consumption and starting the rural market, and many factors still exist that restrict farmers' income growth; The dependence of finance on debt remains high, and the potential financial crisis has not been alleviated, but has deepened.
Looking back on 2001 and looking forward to 2002, we may make the following understandings on economic development and countermeasures this year:
The implementation of expansionary fiscal and monetary policies for four consecutive years has curbed the downward trend of economic growth and created better material conditions for future economic growth and development. However, the policy of easing monetary policy can only address the symptoms, not the root causes. It is like a shot of strength. It is impossible to bring about sustained, rapid and steady economic growth and lay hidden dangers for long-term economic development. Huge fiscal deficits, heavy debt burdens, and money issuance beyond the economy are bound to eventually lead to serious fiscal and financial crises, hyperinflation (such as Russia in the 1990s), or economic stagflation (such as Western countries in the 1970s). Therefore, no wise politician will pursue expansionary policies for a long time.
At the beginning of the 1990s, our country once opened the treasury to spend money, and the banks printed and issued banknotes at full speed. The bitter fruit caused by this has not yet been digested. The long-term fiscal deficit, the high deficit, the huge gap in social security funds, the high proportion of non-performing assets in banks, and the extraordinary growth of residents' savings have cast the shadow of inflation on the economy. The reason why people do not see its real threat now is that the reform measures introduced have forcibly curbed the realization of the demand for purchasing power and locked the income into the bank's safe; It is due to the increase of the poor population, which leads to the contradiction between the relative surplus of production and the insufficient demand for purchasing power. When fiscal and monetary policies cannot promote economic growth and defuse economic risks at the same time, the focus should be shifted to the latter in a timely manner, and long-term development must not be sacrificed to ensure temporary growth.
At present, expansionary fiscal policy and monetary policy have shown the trend of diminishing marginal effects, but the dependence of economic growth on them has not weakened, and the growth mechanism of the economy itself is still weak. Therefore, expansionary fiscal policy and monetary policy have a dangerous tendency of long-term development. Historical lessons at home and abroad show that once the expansionary policy is long-term, there will be endless consequences. The first is to prevent and resolve the fiscal and financial crisis, and the second is to prevent the possibility of falling into the "stagflation" quagmire.
Do not follow developed countries into a "consumer society"
Economic common sense tells us that production determines consumption, but in the final analysis, production is for consumption and depends on consumption. The modern industrial revolution has rapidly increased social productivity, resulting in a great wealth of consumer goods. After World War II, a new consumption mode and lifestyle emerged in western developed countries&# 0&# 0; The aim of the rich is to satisfy their unrestrained material desires and pursue the supremacy of material consumption; Exceed the ability of production and consumption at the expense of environment and waste of resources&# 0&# 0; "Modern consumer society". The "consumer society" is spreading and expanding to developing countries like an infectious disease Contemporary A major public hazard in the world.
China's gross domestic product (GDP) has exceeded the trillion dollar mark, ranking sixth in the world, but only accounting for 3.6% of the world's GDP, and the United States accounting for 32.6%; China's per capita GDP is less than 900 US dollars, less than 1/5 of the global per capita GDP. according to world economy According to the report of the Forum, China ranked 39 and the United States ranked 2 among 75 countries and regions in terms of economic growth competitiveness.
China's total imports and exports reached 509.8 billion US dollars, making it the tenth largest trading country in the world. However, exports accounted for 5.4% of the total world trade, while imports accounted for 3.2%.
China has fed 1/6 of the world's population and provided food and clothing for 1.3 billion people on 7% of the world's total arable land. However, there are still more than 30 million people living in absolute poverty in rural areas. If the United Nations poverty standard of $1 per capita per day is adopted, the number of rural poor people will be much larger. In cities and towns, a relatively stable and large number of poor people have emerged, including more than 6 million laid-off workers, more than 6 million unemployed people, as well as retired workers and rural teachers who cannot receive pensions and wages on time and in full. Millions of households in cities and towns are short of housing and have no housing, and a large number of dilapidated houses and slums need to be renovated. Urban and rural residents are short of medicine.
Although it was an ancient civilization, China's current cultural and educational development is worrying: the proportion of public education expenditure in GDP is even lower than that of the least developed countries. Although the nine-year compulsory education system has been implemented, rural education is still supported by the "Hope Project", and the government's financial allocation for education still does not meet the standards specified in the Education Law. The enrollment rate of high school graduates is only 50%. Among the population over 25 years old, only 2.1% have received higher education, and the number of illiterates is up to 85.07 million. The funds for research and development are seriously insufficient, accounting for less than 1% of GDP (2.88% in Japan, 2.44% in the United States, and 2.29% in South Korea).
China is a large agricultural country with farmers accounting for an absolute majority of the population. Agriculture has not yet got rid of the passive situation of relying on the weather for food. Labor productivity is low, and 2/3 of the labor force is trapped in 1.5 mu of arable land per capita. Due to the difficult pace of agricultural modernization, the annual loss is up to hundreds of billions of yuan, and the loss of vegetables and fruits alone is more than 80 billion yuan a year due to the lack of fresh-keeping equipment.
The establishment and development of modern industry is an important symbol of the level of national industrialization. After 50 years of construction, China has basically built a relatively complete modern industrial system, and industrialization has entered the medium-term stage. However, the overall technical equipment level of the industry is still lagging behind. According to the national industrial census data, only 26.1% of 1180 kinds of professional production equipment reach the international level. Less than 5% of the mechanical products have reached the international advanced level in the 1990s, and the energy consumption per unit of gdp in China is 3.8 times higher than the world average. Every year, 60-70% of the equipment needed for fixed asset investment depends on imports, and equipment in many industries is occupied by foreign countries. The equipment manufacturing industry lost two-thirds of the domestic market share. The research and development of key technologies and components in the information industry are quite backward
Leaving the busy and noisy streets, people see another barren and emaciated China. Such a strong contrast is thought-provoking: is it time for us to follow the developed countries, emulate their lifestyle and catch up with the "consumer society"? Someone said: "China has entered the era of leisure!" Wrong! Now we still need to sing the "March of the Volunteers". Royal Forest Garden The Summer Palace in Beijing has now become a popular leisure place, but people should not forget that this is just the evil deeds of "Old Buddha": the construction of the Summer Palace is at the expense of national defense and modern industry!
To be a "sensible person" after joining WTO
After joining the World Trade Organization, Premier Zhu asked all localities, departments and enterprises to do a good job in response, and warned leaders at all levels to "be an understanding person in leading economic work".
To be a sensible person, we should understand the reasons for China's entry into the WTO. The authoritative explanation for this is that today's world has achieved "economic globalization". The "globalization" argument originates from the United States, but American scholars and politicians have no consistent understanding of "globalization", ranging from "trade liberalization" to "globalization of American values", "globalization of American lifestyles", and even "global Americanization". The American ruling group regards "globalization" as a tool for its hegemonism and external expansion. If we adopt the concept of "globalization", we should endow it with scientific connotation and definite extension instead of blindly copying it. Secondly, "economic globalization" is a process of development and a stage for various forces to compete and struggle. In addition to this, there are anti globalization and regionalization in the world today. We cannot ignore them. Thirdly, the world today, even if it agrees with "economic globalization", must also face up to the irresistible trend and political pattern of "political multipolarization". Since we strongly advocate "multi polarization of world politics" and firmly oppose unipolarity, "multi polarization" and "globalization" are contradictory, and politics serves the economy. In this regard, we should always theoretically justify ourselves.
To be a sensible person, we should understand the current world economic pattern. Since the beginning of the modern industrial revolution, the advanced industrial countries have smashed the barriers of the backward countries with cheap goods and gunboats, bringing countries into the world economic system. Since then, the world has been divided into industrial and agricultural countries, developed and developing countries, poor and rich countries, strong and weak countries. Today, this pattern has not changed. Now, although developing countries have become more vocal and have more leverage in dealing with powerful countries, the international economic order is still unjust. Few rich countries not only bully the weak, but also use trade and investment as tools to promote power politics and hegemonism. The existing WTO rules treat all members equally. This formal equality conceals the actual inequality, not to mention that many rules are formulated under the leadership of developed countries in accordance with the principle of benefiting developed countries. In the final analysis, changing the world economic pattern and establishing a fair and just international economic order depend on the prosperity of developing countries.
To be an understanding person, we should understand China's position in the international economic system and set its position. "Shopping malls are like battlefields", so is the domestic market, especially the international market, where strength is paramount. After China's accession to the WTO, we should set a good position: First, as a developing country and a weak member of the WTO, we should make full use of the rights granted to the underdeveloped countries by the WTO rules, only assume the obligations and commitments commensurate with our status, reject the requirements outside the WTO rules, and resist those measures that harm our interests and endanger our national security. Second, China is a major socialist country under construction and will never seek hegemony in the world. However, China should shoulder its internationalist obligations towards the third world, safeguard the national interests of the third world from infringement in international economic exchanges, actively strive for the establishment of a new international economic order that is equal, just and equitable, and never give up its commitment to hegemonism Power politics is engaged in a struggle that is reasonable, beneficial and disciplined.
Chapter 2: Contemporary World Economy and Policy Model
I. The role of case specific teaching in contemporary world economy and politics
Today's international situation is ups and downs, complex and changeable. How to better maintain world peace and promote common development of the world is a major issue facing all countries in the world, and it is also the key and difficult point in the teaching of contemporary world economy and politics. Based on the author's teaching experience and experience, there are constraints affecting the teaching effect in the teaching process of this course. Among them, there is an obvious lag between the content of textbooks and the development of the international situation. The single teaching means of teachers and the boring teaching content are prominent problems. However, through case specific teaching, with the purpose of "case based reasoning", avoiding from theory to theory, while maintaining the necessary tension between history and reality, theory and practice, the above problems can be effectively alleviated, which is more conducive to improving the teaching effect.
1. It is conducive to mobilizing students' interest and enthusiasm in learning, and cultivating innovative spirit's interest in the textbooks themselves, which is an important motivation for students' independent learning. During the teaching process, the author found that the students were very concerned about the development and changes of China's diplomacy and international hot issues, but because of the obvious lag of the textbooks, they were unable to track the latest changes in international current politics, which weakened the students' interest in learning. Therefore, in the process of teaching preparation and practice, the teaching materials used should be supplemented and integrated according to the new content, new characteristics and new trends of the situation, so as to form a thematic content teaching structure. For example, according to the teaching gist of contemporary world economy and politics, the teaching content of this course can be divided into three major fields: contemporary international politics, world economy, political economy and foreign relations of major countries (regions) in the world, and further refined into corresponding thematic content, supplemented by case scenario design, divergent thinking guidance, thematic discussion and other teaching designs, Deepen the realistic pertinence and practical value of contemporary world economy and politics. Case specific teaching can place abstract theories and concepts under specific space-time conditions and concretize them through cases, so that students can clearly understand the specific manifestations of these theories and concepts of international politics and international relations in current political issues, thus activating the classroom atmosphere, mobilizing the enthusiasm of students to participate in teaching, and achieving the interaction between teaching and learning. For example, when telling about "the changes and trends of the world political pattern after the cold war", we can highlight the changes in major country relations (Sino US relations, Russia US relations, China EU relations, Russia Europe relations). Through the selection of relevant cases, students can learn to view and analyze current political issues from a developmental and dynamic perspective.
2. The purpose of teaching that is conducive to cultivating students' comprehensive analysis ability of contemporary world economy and politics is to enable students to master the basic theories and views of Marxism on contemporary world economy and politics, correctly understand the development trend of the world, and learn to analyze the international situation. The traditional cramming and indoctrination teaching mode has a single teaching method, boring teaching content and poor teaching effect, which cannot meet the teaching requirements of contemporary world economy and politics and the cognitive needs of students in the new situation. The case specific teaching is a major innovation in traditional teaching methods and teaching concepts. It not only attaches importance to the teaching of theoretical knowledge, but also pays more attention to the analysis and thinking of international political issues and regional hot issues. On the basis of keeping up with the pulse of the times, it meets the students' cognitive needs of "seeking novelty and depth". The case teaching method presents the current political problems that students pay attention to in the classroom teaching in the form of typical cases. By actively guiding students to analyze and think about cases, students can make judgments and decisions independently, so as to find problems, explore problems, and gradually improve students' ability to analyze problems and solve practical problems. For example, when teaching the topic of "Contemporary China's Diplomacy", it is first necessary to show the 60 years of independent and peaceful diplomacy in China, so that students can understand the profound connotation of independent and peaceful diplomacy theory and policy. At the same time, through the fact that China has made great historical progress in its reform and opening up for more than 30 years, it illustrates the profound truth of China's "developing itself through striving for a peaceful international environment, and maintaining world peace through its own development", helping students understand that internal affairs are the basis of diplomacy, and diplomacy is an extension of internal affairs, and further understand how to build a harmonious society internally, The dialectical relationship and great significance of promoting the construction of a harmonious world externally.
II. Problems that should be paid attention to in the application of case specific teaching in contemporary world economy and politics
1. The selection of thematic cases should be accurate and appropriate, which is the core of case thematic teaching. "In the case teaching of the ideological and political theory course, the case is both the teaching content and the means to achieve the teaching requirements, so whether the selection of cases is accurate and appropriate will directly affect the effect of the ideological and political theory classroom teaching." Contemporary world economy and politics is a highly practical course. The content of this course is mainly about the international problems that have occurred since the end of the Second World War half a century ago. What we are presented with is a very realistic and vivid picture, so it has a strong sense of the times, and there are a huge number of cases related to the teaching content. In order to better teach this course within the limited classroom teaching time, teachers should closely focus on the syllabus, key and difficult points of teaching, and select targeted cases for the teaching objectives of each topic and class. They should not only aim at the cognitive reality and thinking level of college students, but also combine the development context of international current politics and regional hot issues. For example, when teaching the problem of "unbalanced economic development in developing countries", we can choose Singapore, Saudi Arabia and Uganda, three developing countries with different historical, cultural and economic backgrounds, as examples. After getting rid of colonial rule and striving for national independence, we can proceed from their own national conditions and conditions, constantly strive for self-improvement, and explore the path of survival and development. In terms of the actual development of these three countries, they are all the political products of the oppressed ethnic groups in the East seeking national liberation and national liberation after the Second World War. However, there are differences in the natural resource conditions, social and political conditions, the original level of economic technology, and the economic development strategies and economic policies pursued by the governments of various countries, Therefore, within the developing countries, the economic development shows obvious imbalance. The number of developing countries is large, the region is wide, the level is different, and the development is different. In teaching, students should be guided to have a general grasp of the economy, politics and foreign relations of developing countries from a macro perspective, while at the same time being able to focus on understanding the basic knowledge of regional, national, regional organizations and regional hot issues from a micro perspective.
Chapter 3: Contemporary World Economy and Policy Model
1 Characteristics of Contemporary World Economy and Politics
1.1 Discipline comprehensiveness
From the perspective of course name and content, Contemporary World Economy and Politics is a highly comprehensive course. The content involves not only world economy, international politics, world military affairs, international relations and world history, but also political science, diplomacy and other knowledge. It is precisely because of the interdisciplinary nature of this course that students can enrich their knowledge and broaden their horizons through the study of this course, and on this basis, objectively analyze the hot issues in reality with independent views and perspectives.
1.2 Timeliness
In terms of time, the course Contemporary World Economy and Politics mainly introduces the development and changes of contemporary world politics, economy and international relations since the Second World War. However, the concept of "contemporary" in the course name itself is a constantly changing concept, and time has also been moving forward, which determines that this course is a highly time sensitive course. The relevant parts before the war are only briefly reviewed in order to better understand the contemporary era. The focus is to introduce the development and changes of reality and predict its development trend. Therefore, in addition to the changes in the world economy, politics, military affairs, diplomacy and foreign relations of major countries after World War II, the textbook also needs to update and supplement the teaching content in a timely manner, especially some hot current events in the international community.
1.3 Policy
Contemporary World Economy and Politics is also a political theory course to study, publicize and implement the Party's line, principles and policies. In addition to describing the political and economic conditions of various countries, it also needs to analyze the foreign policies of various countries, including our country's foreign policies, and explain the principles and policies of our party and country in international exchanges and struggles, It has strong policy and political sensitivity. This requires teachers to follow the guidance of Deng Xiaoping Theory, the important thought of "Three Represents" and the Scientific Outlook on Development in teaching, always grasp the correct political direction, pay attention to the educational function of political theory courses, and enable students to have a deep understanding of China's independent foreign policy and the idea of adhering to the path of peaceful development. Guide students to understand, think about and solve problems from the perspective of Marxism.
2. Improve the professional quality of the teachers of Contemporary World Economy and Politics
2.1 Broaden knowledge
Teachers are the carriers of the reform and innovation of teaching methods and teaching methods. To improve the teaching effect, teachers must constantly enrich themselves in teaching practice. The comprehensiveness and interdisciplinary nature of the course "Contemporary World Economy and Politics" determines that teachers must constantly carry out professional learning, optimize the knowledge structure, and at the same time expand their knowledge and have comprehensive and rich knowledge reserves. On the basis of being familiar with the teaching materials, teachers should pay more attention to the knowledge of economics, political science and international relations, so as to form a comprehensive and rich knowledge structure and make their teaching content more in-depth and attractive.
2.2 Keep abreast of current events
The timeliness of the course "Contemporary World Economy and Politics" determines that teachers must grasp the cutting-edge dynamics of theories and current events, care about current events, and constantly provide new cases and materials for the teaching content. It is difficult for "contemporary" teachers to stimulate students' interest in learning if they stick to textbooks and follow the textbooks. If we can timely integrate the latest and most important events at home and abroad into the classroom, and guide students to analyze and discuss, we can effectively stimulate students' interest in learning. This kind of teaching method is also most helpful to help students correctly view the development and change of world economy and politics. Therefore, in the process of classroom teaching, we not only need to tell the key and difficult points required by the syllabus, but also need to grasp the cutting-edge trends of current events, and be able to link up with contemporary hot issues in the teaching process. 2.3 Combination of theory and reality Contemporary World Economy and Politics is not a simple course of international situation. It has its own specific curriculum system, basic content and basic theory, and has a strong ideological and theoretical nature. Contemporary college students are also the most sensitive group to new things and new ideas. If the content of "contemporary" courses cannot solve the problems raised by students, no matter what advanced methods are used, it is impossible for students to agree with them. Therefore, in the process of teaching Contemporary World Economy and Politics, teachers should, on the one hand, make students understand the influential schools, scholars and representative ideas in the research of contemporary international social problems, on the other hand, they must put the focus of theoretical teaching on connecting with reality and solving problems. Finally, it can achieve the teaching effect that not only improves the students' theoretical knowledge, but also strengthens their ability to analyze and observe international issues.
3 Improve the teaching methods of Contemporary World Economy and Politics in various ways to improve the teaching effect
3.1 Select teaching materials and organize class discussion by topic
The textbook is the carrier of the knowledge structure of a course and the basis for teachers to carry out classroom teaching. After more than 20 years of development, the "contemporary" curriculum has many optional textbook versions. In the process of teaching, I selected Contemporary World Political Economy and International Relations, which was edited by Feng Tejun and published by Renmin University Press of China. Because this textbook is not limited to teaching the economic and political situation of the contemporary world, but also includes the contents of the current international relations between major powers. And compared with other versions of the textbook, this textbook adds international hot issues such as the US Iraq war in recent years, which highlights the timeliness of the curriculum. In addition, in the teaching of "contemporary" courses, students can be stimulated to think about the world situation through various forms, such as sub topic discussion. Thematic discussion is to deepen and further sort out the teaching materials, help highlight the key points, solve the difficulties, and also enhance students' thinking ability on practical problems. In the sub topic discussion, the teacher should first determine the topic of the topic discussion in combination with the teaching content and purpose, and then let the students collect and sort out materials and think about problems on the basis of being familiar with the teaching materials. Finally, the teacher should organize classroom discussions according to the content of the topic, and finally make a summary and supplement. This way can deepen students' understanding of the teaching content, thus expanding the teaching content to a certain extent.
3.2 Classroom discussion or debate centered on hot issues
Hot issues are important or sensitive issues in the reality of the international community, and they are the focus and highlight on the international stage. Organizing classroom discussion and debate on hot issues is the most effective teaching method that combines the theory of "contemporary" curriculum with reality. This method can also maximize the subjectivity and subjectivity of students, and ultimately improve the teaching effect. Teachers can provide discussion centers with controversial major issues and international hot issues, for example, how to view Putin's influence on Russian politics? How to view the impact of the BRICs on the world economic pattern? Then guide students to find materials and analyze them from different perspectives, write small papers or speech materials, and divide them into groups for discussion and debate according to their views. Finally, the teacher will make a summary and analysis according to the students' discussion or debate. In this process, students will be trained to make an objective analysis of practical problems.
3.3 Use case teaching to cultivate students' analytical ability
Case teaching brings vivid examples into the classroom, combines theory and practice, abstraction and concreteness, and helps to cultivate students' thinking ability and mobilize their enthusiasm, thus improving students' ability to find, analyze and solve problems. When using the case teaching method in the teaching of "contemporary" courses, teachers should first select some typical, contemporary, novel, readable and knowledgeable cases in the use of cases; Secondly, teachers should integrate case teaching into relevant chapters, and explain some key issues as cases to help teaching. For example, when telling about the trend and characteristics of political development in the world today, the part of "traditional security threats and non-traditional security threats are intertwined" can be explained with the help of the case that AIDS, known as the "century plague" and "century killer", poses a threat to people around the world; When telling the chapter about the economy and politics of Russia and other CIS countries after the Cold War, we can select cases such as "Putin's New Deal" and "Russia's energy diplomacy" in combination with Russia's political reality to explain. Teaching practice has proved that case analysis can highlight the vividness and importance of some chapters of the course, and can analyze problems more deeply and systematically.
3.4 Introduce modern teaching means with the help of multimedia materials
Chapter 4: Contemporary World Economy and Policy Model
After World War II, European and American countries have adjusted their economic development policies to promote economic recovery and development. The success and shortcomings of these policies have provided rich historical enlightenment for the economic development of the world and China today.
1、 American Economic Policy after World War II
1. The process of economic policy adjustment of the United States after World War II.
(1) 1950s and 1960s
Policy: ① After World War II, the United States became the richest and strongest country in the world, with a broad international market. ② Vigorously develop science and technology education, make full use of high-tech achievements, improve the production technology of traditional industries, and develop new industries and military industries. ③ We will expand government functions, improve people's lives, and create a more favorable environment for development.
Achievements: The economy of the United States continues to develop, presenting a prosperous scene, especially in the west and south.
(2) 1970s and 1980s
Reasons: ① In the 1970s, the drawbacks of the US economic development policy were increasingly exposed, with inflation and heavy debt burden. ② In particular, the United States economy was severely hit by the sharp increase in oil prices in the Middle East oil producing countries.
Policy: After the mid-1980s, the U.S. government adjusted its economic policies and appropriately reduced the country's intervention in the economy. The economic situation gradually improved, but the debt burden increased, making it the world's largest debtor.
(3) Since the 1990s
Policies: ① The US government carries out social and economic reforms. ② The development of education, science and technology has been strengthened, which has promoted the development of high-tech represented by the information industry. ③ The technological transformation of traditional industries has been completed.
Characteristics: The US economy has gradually achieved sustained and stable development and entered the new economic era of informatization and globalization.
2. Comprehensive performance of American economic policies.
① (Root cause) Adjust economic policies and self regulate the capitalist mechanism. ② (Main reason) Seize the opportunity of the third technological revolution, vigorously develop science and technology, and develop high-tech industries. ③ Attach importance to basic education and cultivate practical talents.
3. The enlightenment from the economic development of the United States.
① In the process of economic development, the state should comprehensively strengthen its intervention in the economy, timely adjust economic policies, and overcome the shortcomings in economic development. ② We should seize the opportunity of development, vigorously develop science and technology, attach importance to education, and cultivate talents.
2、 Japan's Economic Policy after World War II
1. Performance: ① After World War II, the United States pursued the demilitarization policy in Japan, carried out social reform, and cleared away militarism and feudalism obstacles for economic development. ② In the 1950s, we made full use of the supportive policies of the United States. ③ Seize the opportunity of the Korean War to obtain a large number of special orders from the US military in Japan. ④ The government formulates appropriate economic policies, from introducing the latest scientific and technological achievements to emphasizing the development of education and science and technology. ⑤ In the 1980s, Japan implemented the policy of "building the country through science and technology", which promoted rapid economic development.
2. Achievements: In the 1950s, Japan's economy began to develop at a high speed. By the 1970s, Japan had become the second largest capitalist economy after the United States. In many important production fields, such as steel, automobiles, ships, and electrical appliances, Japan ranks first in the world.
3. Impact: Japan's rapid rise has directly impacted the hegemony of the United States, making the world a tripartite confrontation between the United States, Western Europe and Japan. Japan's desire to seek a political power has also begun to expand, and its military expenditure has been increasing, which has aroused the vigilance of Asian neighbors.
4. The enlightenment of Japan's economic development on China's economic construction.
① Be good at seizing opportunities, strengthening international economic ties and cooperation, and promoting common development. ② Vigorously develop education, train talents, actively introduce advanced technology and boldly innovate. ③ Adhere to reform and opening up, adhere to the socialist road, and formulate economic development strategies suitable for the national conditions.
3、 Economic Policies in Western Europe after World War II
1. Performance: ① Western European countries move towards unity and common development, sharing resources and complementing advantages among member countries. ② Use the support of the United States to participate in the Marshall Plan of the United States. ③ Give play to the advantages of high-quality labor force. ④ With the aid of the United States, we will adopt the most advanced scientific and technological achievements.
2. Impact: The EU has become the world's largest economy, which has greatly promoted the social progress of member countries and the development of friendly relations among countries; It is very conducive to maintaining stability and peace in Europe, and also to the formation of a multipolar pattern after the bipolar pattern.
3. Enlightenment: ① Peace and development are the mainstream in the world today. ② To remember history is not to continue hatred. It is a historical progress to turn hostility into friendship. ③ Cooperation between countries can achieve "win-win" and "multi win". China should strengthen exchanges and cooperation with countries around the world to seek common development.
4、 Reform of the Soviet Union after the war
1. Khrushchev reform.
Content: From 1954 to 1964, Khrushchev tried to overcome the drawbacks caused by the highly centralized planned economic system in the Stalin era, and carried out a series of reforms in the economic field.
Evaluation: It has impacted the Stalin model to a certain extent, but failed to fundamentally change the highly centralized economic and political system of the Soviet Union. The reform did not fundamentally change the backward situation of Soviet agriculture, nor did it overcome the drawbacks of the planned economic system.
2. Gorbachev reform.
Background: ① The economic foundation is weakening and the economic structure is further deformed. ② Social contradictions are accumulating and the overall national strength is declining.
Process: After Gorbachev came to power in 1985, he first focused on economic reform, but turned to focus on political reform after no results were achieved. The Soviet Union changed from a one party system to a multi-party system, with decentralized state power.
Result: The Soviet Union disintegrated.
3. The enlightenment of the failure of Soviet reform to China.
① Development is the absolute principle. We should focus on economic construction and constantly improve people's material and cultural living standards. ② We will strengthen democracy and the legal system, and actively and steadily carry out political and economic restructuring. ③ We must strengthen the building of a clean and honest government, strictly punish corruption, govern for the people, and build the Party for the public. ④ In the choice of construction road, we must proceed from our own reality and cannot copy the model of other countries. ⑤ We must pay attention to domestic ethnic issues and correctly handle ethnic relations. ⑥ In the reform, we must adhere to the leadership of the Party and the socialist direction, and adhere to the guiding position of Marxism unswervingly. ⑦ The reform should take correct countermeasures against some ideas and values advocated by the West.
5、 Reform in Eastern Europe after World War II
Background: Eastern European countries that have embarked on the socialist road copy the Stalin model. The drawbacks are increasingly exposed, and reform is imperative.
Representative: Hungary reform.
Results: The reform in Eastern Europe did not achieve the expected results, which led to the deterioration of the domestic economic situation, which led to political crisis, and ultimately led to drastic changes in Eastern Europe.
6、 India embarks on the road of national rejuvenation
Under the leadership of Nehru, the first Prime Minister of the Republic of India, after decades of struggle, India has basically achieved self-sufficiency in food and made great progress in its economy; Establish a relatively complete industrial system; Scientific and technological achievements such as atomic energy and biology have attracted worldwide attention.
[Situation analysis]
This topic is closely related to reality and has important enlightenment significance for the development of China and the world economy. Therefore, the high school entrance examination in all places attaches great importance to this topic. From the perspective of the type of examination questions, it mainly focuses on multiple choice questions, from the perspective of the examination content, it mainly focuses on the economic policies of the United States, Japan and Western Europe, and from the perspective of the examination ability, it mainly focuses on the ability to remember and compare.
Review Strategy
1. Clarify the clues: take time as the order, firmly grasp the stages of economic policies of various countries, and pay attention to the differences and unity of economic policies of various countries in different periods.
2. Horizontal comparison: when reviewing this topic, we should pay attention to the same and different policies adopted by the United States, Japan and Western Europe in the process of economic development, analyze the reasons for the differences and similarities, and summarize the historical enlightenment. Compare the different consequences of reforms in the Soviet Union, Eastern Europe and China, and deepen understanding of the necessity of China's taking the road of socialism with Chinese characteristics.
3. Before and after connection: The development of history has its continuity. The economic policy adjustment of capitalist countries after World War II has a profound connection with Roosevelt's New Deal. When reviewing, we must combine the influence of Roosevelt's New Deal to deeply understand the content of economic policy adjustment of capitalist countries after the war. At the same time, it is also necessary to further grasp the reasons and effects of economic policy adjustment in various countries in connection with the development of world politics and science and technology. Attention should be paid to linking with reality, deepening understanding, and analyzing the capitalist economic system from a dialectical point of view. We should not only affirm its role in promoting the development of productive forces, but also not ignore its various drawbacks.
[Review of the real question]
1. (2013 • Linyi, Shandong) In the 1990s, the economic policy and economic structure of the United States changed greatly, entering the new economic era. In this era, the main characteristics of the American economy are ()
① Informatization ② Globalization ③ Multi polarization ④ Militarization
A．①②B．③④
C．①③D．②③
2. (2013 • Huaihua, Hunan) Contemporary western historians said: "Western European countries hope to revitalize their economies and reduce the possibility of future wars by establishing an economic community." The largest economy in the world established by Western European countries on the basis of the European Community in 1993 is ()
A. International Union B. APEC
C. European Union D. World Trade Organization
3. (2013 • Yibin, Sichuan) After World War II, Europe gradually moved towards unity. The following statements are correct ()
① The European Community was founded in the 1960s ② The European Union was founded in the 1990s ③ The euro was used throughout Europe in 2002 ④ The European Union is the largest economy in the world today
A.①②③B.①③④
C.②③④D.①②④
4. (2013 • Xiaogan, Hubei) After World War II, Japan began to implement nine-year free compulsory education. In 1957, the Japanese government put forward the Program for Revitalizing Education through Science and Technology; Reform of primary and secondary school curriculum in 1958; In the 1960s, it began to combine production, learning, research and research. This shows that Japan ()
A. Implemented demilitarization management
B. Attach importance to the development of science, technology and education
C. Political and democratic reforms have been carried out
D. Has been strongly supported by the United States
5. (2013 • Baotou, Inner Mongolia) After World War II, the United States, Western Europe, Japan and other major capitalist countries generally experienced a period of economic adjustment and development. The common reasons are ()
A. Implementation of the Marshall Plan
B. The outbreak of the Korean War
C. Adopt the most advanced scientific and technological achievements
D. Form an economic community
6. (2013 • Chenzhou, Hunan) After World War II, the reforms that had a greater impact on European socialist countries were ()
① Khrushchev reform in the Soviet Union ② Meiji Restoration in Japan ③ Gorbachev reform in Soviet Russia ④ Kadar reform in Hungary ⑤ abolition of serfdom in Russia
A.①③④B.①②③
C.②③④D.③④⑤
7. (2013 • Chengdu, Sichuan) Mark Twain said: "India, once you see it, you will never forget it, because it is different from other parts of the world." Today India is "different from other parts of the world" in ()
① Single religion ② Numerous scientific and technological talents ③ Remarkable achievements in computer and software research ④ Population ranking second in the world
A．①②③B．①②④
C．①③④D．②③④
[Intensive Training]
1. The United States and the major capitalist countries in Western Europe have experienced "stagflation", with economic growth stagnating or declining, while prices continue to soar and inflation is serious. The above phenomenon occurs in ()
A. Early 1950s
B. Early 1960s
C. Early 1970s
D. Early 1980s
2. In 1970, the World Exposition was held in Osaka, Japan, marking the re emergence of Japan's economy. The main reasons do not include ()
A. Pursue the policy of demilitarization
B. Seize the opportunity of the Korean War
C. Use the strong support of the United States
D. Implement the policy of "building the country through science and technology"
3. After the establishment of the European Community, the first step was to establish a customs union, and various tariffs were gradually eliminated among member countries. This measure ()
A. Leading to the economic hegemony of Western Europe
B. It is conducive to the development of foreign trade in Western Europe
C. Resulting in the loss of Western European countries
D. Obstructing the trend of world economic globalization
4. However, he certainly did not take it as his task to change the political system established by his predecessor. On the contrary, in order to consolidate his own power and carry out some political and economic reforms, he also made full use of the authoritarian structure of this system. In spite of this, he substantially revised the system... and also swept away the myth that the relevant party and its leaders have always been correct. "He" in this historical review refers to ()
A. Stalin B. Deng Xiaoping
C. Khrushchev D. Gorbachev
5. New economy refers to the information technology revolution in the context of economic globalization and the economy driven by the information technology revolution and led by high-tech industries. The term "new economy" first appeared in a group of articles published by Business Week on December 30, 1996. The impacts of the new economy include ()
① The economy continues to grow ② The number of employees continues to increase ③ The price increase remains at a high level ④ The import trade growth momentum is strong
A．①②B．①②④
C．①③④D．①②③④
6. Read the following materials and answer relevant questions.
After the Second World War, modernization began worldwide, and almost all countries joined the ranks of modernization.
Material 1 In the Soviet Union, from Khrushchev to Brezhnev, they did not really realize the drawbacks of the Stalin model, still claimed to "build communism in an all-round way" and "developed socialism", but only made minor repairs to the Stalin model... making the Stalin model more perfect and consolidated.
-- New Knowledge and New Vision of History Learning
Material II capitalism experienced shocks in the first half of the 20th century. After the war, state intervention was widely used to ease the contradictions that could not be solved in the private capitalist stage, making production relations more suitable for the development of productivity, and capitalist modernization entered a relatively mature period Driven by factors such as state intervention and the third scientific and technological revolution, the country's economy grew at a high speed in the 1950s and 1960s, and the industrial structure changed dramatically Although the rapid economic development has brought about social progress, in the 1960s, people began to question the pursuit of economic growth. The scholars led by the Club of Rome proposed that the blind pursuit of economic growth would cause the depletion of human limited resources and the serious destruction of human living environment. These views make people re-examine the relationship between man and nature, which still has a huge impact today.
-- New Knowledge and New Vision of History Learning
Material 3 Deng Xiaoping advocated that China "become rich"... "untie" the Chinese economy... In the 1990s and early 21st century, China's annual economic growth rate was nearly 10% every year. If this speed is maintained, China's economy will surpass that of the United States and become the largest economy in the world by 2020.
-- The World: A History
Please answer the questions:
(1) According to Material 1, point out the characteristics of the modernization of the Soviet Union after World War II. What are the consequences?
(2) What does "shock in the first half of the 20th century" in Material 2 mean? According to the materials, explain the main reasons for the development of capitalist modernization after World War II. What is the impact?
(3) It points out the main content of Material 3 to "untie" the economy. According to Material 3, it points out its progressive significance.
(4) What enlightenment do the modernization policies of various countries in the above materials give us?
Reference answer and analysis
[Review of the real question]
1. A [Analysis] This question examines the ability to understand historical phenomena. The "new economy" of the United States is a new economic growth model based on knowledge economy and led by information technology under the situation of economic globalization. Therefore, its main characteristics are informatization and globalization. The correct answer to this question is A.
2. C [Analysis] This question examines students' ability to recognize and reproduce historical knowledge. The European Union is the largest economy in the world, which was established by Western European countries on the basis of the European Community in 1993. So the correct answer is C.
3. D [Analysis] In 1999, the single currency of the European Union, the euro, was officially launched, but not all countries participated in the euro area. In addition, many European countries did not join the European Union. The use of the euro throughout Europe is not consistent with historical facts, so the correct answer to this question is D.
4. B [Analysis] This question examines the ability of reading materials to extract effective information. Question stem materials show that after World War II, Japan has adopted many positive and promising policies in education and science and technology, indicating that it attaches great importance to education and science and technology, so the correct answer to this question is B.
5. C [Analysis] This question examines the ability to compare historical phenomena. The Marshall Plan was an opportunity for Japan, Western Europe and the United States to develop; The Korean War provided conditions for Japan's economy, but had no direct impact on Western Europe's economy; After the war, Western Europe formed an economic community, which was not applicable to the United States and Japan. Therefore, exclude A, B and D, and select C for the correct answer to this question.
6. A [Analysis] This question examines the ability to analyze historical phenomena. To answer this question, first, pay attention to the time after World War II, second, pay attention to the location in Europe, and third, see whether it is a socialist country. The correct answer is A because ① ③ ④ meets the three requirements.
7. D [Analysis] This question examines the ability to reproduce historical knowledge. There are many religions in India with complex contradictions. ① The choice does not conform to historical facts, so the correct answer to this question is D.
[Intensive Training]
1. C [Analysis] This question examines the ability to recognize and reproduce historical knowledge. In the early 1970s, the economy of the United States and Western Europe was severely hit by the sharp increase in oil prices of oil producing countries in the Middle East, resulting in "stagflation".
2. D [Analysis] In the 1980s, Japan implemented the policy of "building a country through science and technology", which promoted rapid economic development. The Osaka World Expo was held in 1970, so choose D.
3. B [Analysis] This question examines the ability to analyze historical materials and deduce historical conclusions. "The gradual elimination of various tariffs among member countries" will promote the trade liberalization of European Community countries, promote the economic development of member countries, and promote the globalization of the world economy, but will not affect the national status of countries. In addition, the United States still held the world economic hegemony at that time. Therefore, the correct answer to this question is B.
4. C [Analysis] This question examines the ability to demonstrate historical conclusions. Khrushchev's reform is a reform of Stalin's model, which is groundbreaking to a certain extent, but in essence it is a minor repair and minor supplement; A system of government that completely negates Stalin politically but still practices a high degree of centralization. Stalin did not "wipe out the myth that the relevant parties and their leaders are always correct". Deng Xiaoping did not make use of "institutional authoritarianism". Gorbachev's reform has the characteristics of copying the Western democratic system, and does not conform to the characteristics of "authoritarianism". So the correct answer to this question is C.
5. A [Analysis] In the 1990s, the US economy achieved a sustained growth of up to 10 years. At that time, an American magazine called this phenomenon "the victory of the new economy". During this period, the American economy continued to grow, the number of employees continued to increase, and the inflation and unemployment rates were declining year by year, so ① ② was correct; ③ ④ It is inconsistent with the historical facts. So the correct answer is A.
6. (1) Features: The reform was carried out and the attempt to break through the Stalin model was unsuccessful. Consequences: The Soviet Union experienced serious economic difficulties and political crisis, which eventually led to the disintegration of the Soviet Union.
(2) 1929-1933 Capitalist world economic crisis. Reasons: generally follow the policy of state intervention in the economy and implement macro-control of the national economy; The impact of the third scientific and technological revolution. Impact: Rapid economic growth and great changes in industrial structure; Social progress; The destruction of the ecological environment caused people to think.
Chapter 5: Contemporary World Economy and Policy Model
One of the basic assumptions of this article is that the current Sino US relations are directly related to the world's entry into the so-called "post cold war era"; We must understand the current China US relations in the context of this era. In short, the great changes in the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe in the late 1980s and early 1990s have brought the world into a new era, which is the so-called "post cold war era". Compared with the cold war era, the world strategic pattern in the post cold war era has undergone fundamental changes. The changes in the relationship between the People's Republic of China and the United States, the two major powers, are both constrained by this fundamental change in the world strategic pattern, and in turn affect the formation of a new world strategic pattern.
Under this basic setting, we will link the changes in China US relations with the changes in the world strategic pattern. First, we will briefly review the historical development of China US relations from the cold war era to the post cold war era, and judge that China US relations have entered a new historical stage. Secondly, we will examine the characteristics of China US relations in this new historical stage. Thirdly, we will give a basic level framework for analyzing the Sino US relations in the current context, so as to further summarize the contents of Sino US relations in the post cold war era. Finally, we will look forward to the future of China US relations in the light of the current situation.
1、 From the Cold War to the Post Cold War: What has changed in the background of Sino US relations?
From the Cold War era to today, the relationship between China and the United States has experienced long-term development and change. In brief, these changes can be divided into three different historical stages. The strategic relationship between China and the United States is different in these three stages, so they can be called "strategic confrontation" stage, "strategic cooperation" stage and "strategic friction" stage respectively. Below, try to discuss the three stages respectively.
（1） Strategic opposition stage
When the People's Republic of China was founded in 1949, it immediately pursued the so-called "one-sided" foreign policy, fully allied itself with the Communist camp led by the Soviet Union in the international arena, became an important member of this camp, and stood on the position of competing with the Western camp led by the United States. The United States continues its policy of supporting the Chinese Kuomintang regime, supporting the Kuomintang regime to stabilize its foothold in Taiwan and confront the People's Republic of China across the sea. Therefore, the main tone of China US relations at that time was mutual hostility and isolation. In particular, the outbreak of the Korean War and China's participation in the war directly led to the confrontation between the Chinese and American armies on the battlefield. At the same time, the Seventh Fleet of the United States entered the Taiwan Strait, further expanding the confrontation between China and the United States. All these have further worsened the relationship between China and the United States, creating a seemingly irreversible hostile situation between the two countries.
The East West Cold War was the basic strategic pattern of the world at that time, and the antagonistic relationship between China and the United States was a specific manifestation of the Cold War. Therefore, the antagonism between China and the United States at that time had all the factors of the Cold War: this included the opposition between political system and ideology, as well as the differences between economic system and social system; This includes conflicts in geopolitical and strategic interests, as well as factors that leaders and people do not understand each other; This includes great differences in foreign alliance policies, as well as direct military confrontation. However, the formation of this antagonistic relationship is not entirely due to differences or opposites in political, economic and social systems. In fact, on the eve and early stage of the establishment of the People's Republic of China, the United States tried to establish some kind of at least goodwill relationship with the Communist regime of China. However, due to the role of ideology and other factors, the Chinese Communists ignored or even rejected such goodwill and quickly adopted the foreign policy of closing to the Soviet Union. Once the Soviet Union approached, China's position in the world cold war pattern was immediately positioned, and its relationship with the United States was also positioned in the tone of isolation and hostility, thus forming a strategic confrontation between China and the United States. With China's participation in the Korean War, China's foreign policy has evolved from being closer to the Soviet Union to directly confronting the West and the United States, and China's position in the Cold War has been more clearly defined.
The hostility between China and the Soviet Union in the early 1960s changed the major relationship between China's attachment to the Soviet Union and the world communist camp led by the Soviet Union in the world strategic framework. However, the hostile relationship between China and the United States that had been formed due to China's closeness to the Soviet Union did not change immediately at that time. There may be three important reasons for this: first, the war of the United States against Vietnam prompted the Chinese to believe that the United States was implementing a strategic encirclement of China itself (not just the Soviet Union); The Cold War is not only the US Soviet Cold War, but also the US China Cold War. Second, China is pursuing a tough policy that is more cold war than the Cold War, that is, at the same time, it is anti US, anti Soviet and "anti imperialist and anti hegemonic". Third, the quarrel between China and the Soviet Union was initially mainly manifested in ideology, and friction was also mainly reflected in economic and other fields. However, military and diplomatic confrontation has not yet formed, and China may not have a strong understanding of the threat from the Soviet Union. Therefore, although China and the Soviet Union were hostile, at that time it did not immediately mean that the Sino US relations were relaxed; The Cold War continues between China and the United States, and the tone of bilateral relations remains hostility and isolation.
（2） Strategic cooperation stage
However, the change in Sino Soviet relations is, after all, a change in the level of the world's strategic architecture, which will sooner or later reflect the change in China's main foreign strategic relations. The United States is a major country in the world, and China US relations are a major strategic relationship of China. Similarly, the changes in Sino Soviet relations will also be reflected in the relations between major powers in the world and China sooner or later. China also has a strategic position and strategic strength that cannot be ignored. The United States in the Cold War with the Soviet Union also needs to re-examine its relations with China: yesterday, China was a friend of the enemy, so the relationship between the United States and China was hostile; Today, China is the enemy of the enemy. What kind of relations should the United States develop with China?
We see that China and the United States began to implement strategic proximity, and then realized strategic cooperation. This is the second stage of China US relations. This stage can be traced back to the so-called "ping-pong diplomacy" in the early 1970s. However, officially, the stage of "strategic cooperation" in China US relations should be marked by the behavior of US President Nixon in Beijing in 1972. Although there were many frictions and quarrels in the Sino US relations at this stage, the overall tone was strategic cooperation. Therefore, we say that the basic feature of Sino US relations after 1972 is that detente outweighs tension and cooperation outweighs friction.
It is obvious that the Sino US relations at this stage are significantly different from those at the previous stage, almost in the opposite nature. However, it is also obvious that, first, the world strategic pattern of the Cold War has not changed; Second, China's internal political system has not changed; Third, the political system of the United States has not changed. Why can two world powers, which are sharply opposed in political system and ideology, form a strategic partnership? What is the reason that led to the major changes in the relationship between China and the United States? I think we can only find the reason from the overall structure of the world strategy, that is, from the cold war pattern of the world at that time, to find the basis for the formation of strategic cooperation between China and the United States.
The main content of the East West Cold War is the struggle between the United States and the Soviet Union to dominate the world. In other words, in the Cold War era, the confrontation and competition between the United States and the Soviet Union formed the world's axial strategic relationship. Accordingly, other bilateral and multilateral relations in the world are inevitably affected and restricted by this axis strategic relationship. After the Sino Soviet hostility, China's role in the Cold War pattern has undergone fundamental changes. It is this change that has led to the eventual realization of strategic proximity and cooperation between China and the United States. In order to jointly deal with the Soviet Union, the United States and China have found the greatest common strategic interests. The strategic proximity, normalization of relations and strategic cooperation between China and the United States were shaped by such a so-called "Soviet factor". In other words, it was formed under the framework of the world strategic pattern in the cold war era.
Because of the powerful role of this factor, the strategic cooperative relationship between China and the United States since the 1970s, in the context of the cold war era at that time, did not fail to reach an agreement because of the political system and ideological opposition between the two sides, nor did it change fundamentally because of the internal political changes in the United States or China. When this strategic cooperation was reached in the early stage, since there were no significant changes in the internal systems of both sides, if China and the United States wanted to move from strategic hostility to strategic cooperation, they would inevitably break through the constraints of their internal political system, economic system and ideology on their respective international strategies to a large extent. We can see that while Mao Zedong continued to pursue the ultra left line internally, he made a strategic decision to approach the United States diplomatically. Similarly, in the United States, while sticking to his right-wing position, the tough anti Communist Nixon personally visited Beijing to create a strategic partnership between the United States and China. Later, the cyclical change of government in the United States did not affect the strategic cooperation between China and the United States. Democrat President Carter continued the line of Republican President Nixon, and finally completed the normalization of China US relations in diplomacy; President Reagan showed a strong pro Taiwan and anti China stance during the election campaign, but after his election, he still pursued the diplomatic policy of strategic cooperation with China. Similarly, at this stage, significant changes have taken place in China's internal affairs, realizing the transition from Mao Zedong's line to Deng Xiaoping's line, and starting to focus on modernization, while opening up to the outside world. At the same time, the personnel of the Chinese government have also been greatly updated. By the middle and late 1980s, the effect of China's economic reform had even begun to show up at the institutional level, prompting major changes in China's original communist system at the economic, social, cultural and political levels. However, such substantial internal changes did not affect the fundamental changes in the strategic partnership between China and the United States before the Cold War pattern changed. This proves from the opposite side that the foundation and basis of the strategic cooperation between China and the United States do not lie in the internal political or economic systems of both sides, in their respective ideologies, or in the composition of their leadership, but in the international strategic framework of the Cold War era, and in the presence of the Soviet threat, It lies in China's strategic position in the US Soviet struggle for hegemony.
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（3） Strategic friction stage
Since the strategic cooperation between China and the United States was based on the cold war pattern of the world at that time, when the world cold war pattern finally disintegrated and the post cold war era began, China US relations could not have changed fundamentally. I believe that since the 1990s, China US relations have entered the third stage since 1949, that is, the current stage full of friction and tension. Unlike previous frictions and quarrels, the current disputes, frictions and conflicts between China and the United States are of strategic significance. In other words, the current tension between China and the United States is based on the strategic friction between the two sides. Therefore, I call this stage "strategic friction".
In a sense, we can trace the beginning of the apparent deterioration of Sino US relations back to the Tiananmen Incident in Beijing in 1989. In the subsequent changes in Sino US relations, the Tiananmen Incident had many impacts, mainly as follows: first, it highlighted the difference and even opposition between China and the United States in political system and ideology; Second, it highlights China's human rights issues and intensifies the "human rights war" in Sino US relations; Third, it has changed the domestic environment of the US policy towards China. The American people and public opinion have turned from being friendly to China to being hostile to the Beijing regime; Fourth, the independent political activities of Chinese political opposition forces began to form in the United States. Their congressional lobbying activities directly focused on human rights and other issues, which had a certain impact on the United States policy towards China.
However, the significance of the Tiananmen Incident in Sino US relations is not mainly due to its role in China's internal politics, but rather because it is a precursor to the disintegration of the world communist camp and the impending fundamental change of the Cold War pattern. Following the Tiananmen Incident in Beijing, great changes took place in Eastern Europe, the Soviet Union finally disintegrated, and the world communist camp collapsed. This has brought about a fundamental change in the world strategic pattern after the Second World War, making the Cold War era enter history. The disappearance of Soviet factors led to the deconstruction of the strategic triangle relationship between China, the United States and the Soviet Union in the cold war era, and the basic background of China US relations had undergone fundamental changes. To be specific, the disintegration of the former Soviet Union has changed China's strategic position in the US global policy, which has directly brought two major negative factors to the Sino US relations: first, China is no longer the strategic partner of the United States to contain the Soviet Union, and Sino US relations no longer have the political and military significance of the Cold War era for the United States. Secondly, the opposition between China and the United States in political system and ideology has become prominent, and China has become the only country in the world that is opposed to the United States in political system and ideology. In a word, China's role as a partner of the United States has been greatly reduced, while its role as a competitor of the United States has also been greatly highlighted. Only this change finally determined the keynote of Sino US relations in the post cold war era.
From the perspective of this global strategic structure, we can easily understand two phenomena: first, although the Tiananmen incident occurred in China, the US government's policy towards China at that time was still mainly cooperation rather than hostility; Second, although China began to implement substantial economic reforms again in 1992, Sino US relations still cannot get out of the downturn. These two contradictory and complementary examples only show one fact: China US relations are not simply determined by the internal state of both sides, but mainly determined by the world strategic pattern. If there is no rapid disintegration of the world communist camp after the Tiananmen Incident, the US China relations should still maintain the tone of strategic cooperation while increasing quarrels; Assuming that the Cold War structure still exists, China will not fundamentally affect the strategic partnership between China and the United States, regardless of whether there is market-oriented change. On the other hand, it was precisely because of the changes in the structure of the Cold War that Sino US relations inevitably embarked on the road from strategic cooperation to strategic friction.
In my opinion, compared with the cold war era, the basic characteristics of China US relations in the post cold war era are: on the one hand, the strategic partnership between China and the United States based on the Soviet Union in the cold war era has been deconstructed; On the other hand, because China's national strength has rapidly increased in the market-oriented reform, but still maintains its one party autocratic political system of the Communist Party, it is regarded by the United States as the biggest potential threat to the current world system with the United States as the hegemonic power, thus gradually forming a new tension with strategic axis characteristics between China and the United States. Based on this change in strategic relations, since the 1990s, China US relations have entered a new era in which friction is more than understanding, tension is more than relaxation, and competition is more than cooperation. Among many competitive fields and friction issues, economy, security, human rights and Taiwan issue are in fact of great significance to the global strategic pattern, and their essence is related to the decline of American hegemony and the rise of China's national power. The world strategic pattern in the early 21st century will, to a large extent, revolve around disputes or cooperation between China and the United States in the above fields.
2、 From strategic cooperation to strategic competition: what new features have emerged in China US relations?
After the collapse of the former Soviet Union, the United States became the only hegemonic power in the world. At the same time, China is implementing market-oriented economic reform and adhering to the situation that the Communist Party monopolizes political power, and the national strength is developing rapidly. The dominance of the United States and the rise of China have become two prominent scenes of the world strategic pattern in the post cold war era. Led by the disappearance of the Soviet factor, the two factors, American hegemony and the rise of China, not only did not ease the relationship between the two countries, but also made the relationship between China and the United States more serious.
Let us first look at the international strategy of the United States in the post cold war era. Although the United States won the Cold War, it also paid a considerable price. In the post cold war era, whether the United States can maintain its position as the only superpower in the world brought about by the victory of the cold war has become the most concerned issue of the international strategy of the United States in the post cold war era. Politically, after the collapse of the communist camp, the superstition of American style liberal democracy in the United States and around the world has reached a new peak, and the ideological factors of the democratic system have greatly increased. Both emotionally and strategically, the United States hopes to seize the opportunity of the end of the cold war and the so-called "third wave of democratization", rapidly promote democracy in the world, expand the camp of Western style democratic countries, and consolidate the leadership of the United States in the world politically. Compared with this political ambition, the United States is in a much more difficult economic situation. The Cold War also had a huge loss on the economic strength of the United States; After a long period of development, the American economic system itself has begun to face many problems; Under the circumstances of high economic competition in the world, the United States is losing its original advantages. In this sense, the United States is alert to the "decline" of its hegemony, so it is more crisis conscious. In terms of culture, while the world is rapidly globalizing and westernizing, it has also begun to generate strong resistance forces around the world. The differences and conflicts between different cultures, nations and religions in the world are becoming increasingly prominent, and are projected on the political and economic relations between different countries, This is especially reflected in the relationship between the western world led by the United States and other non western countries. Whether such cultural conflicts can be properly handled has become an important issue for the United States to maintain its leadership in the process of global integration.
If we say that the main dilemma faced by the United States in the post cold war era is the contradiction between its unprecedented consolidated hegemonic position and its declining leadership, the fundamental point of its international strategy is to improve its economic and political capabilities to consolidate its hegemonic position; Then, China's basic international situation in the post cold war era is also composed of two basic aspects that are both connected and contradictory: on the one hand, through economic reform and opening up, China's comprehensive national strength is rapidly improving, strengthening China's international status and ability to intervene in world affairs; on the other hand, because of China's unique political system and ideology, The improvement of China's national strength has been regarded as a major challenge to its own security and the world order by neighboring countries and the western world, thus bringing constraints on the international environment for China's opening up and further economic development. This situation can be understood from four aspects: first, the disintegration of the world cold war pattern temporarily eliminates the possibility of direct military conflict between major powers, which in turn further highlights the international economic competition between major powers. The international competition among countries based on economic development did not end with the end of the Cold War, but was more reflected in the economic field itself. In this sense, the acceleration of China's economic development and the rapid improvement of its national strength are a strong stimulus to the tense world economic competition. Second, China's economic development is achieved through partial marketization under the condition of a large population and relatively poor resources. The logic of its further development should be outward oriented, that is, the expansion of marketization itself will promote China to seek elements of economic development worldwide, and the heavy pressure of the ratio of population to resources will also promote China's gradual outward expansion. Third, the improvement of China's comprehensive national strength has changed the original pattern of international politics, economy and security between neighboring countries and in the Asia Pacific region, increased the insecurity of neighboring countries, and strengthened the intensity of future economic competition and security conflicts in the Asia Pacific region. Fourth, China's unique political system and ideology, which are different from those of the West, pose a serious challenge to the existing world order. Under the background of such four factors, the rapid increase of China's national strength has not only formed a major feature of the international pattern in the post cold war era, but also constituted a major variable in the international pattern in the post cold war era.
In contrast, the international strategy of the United States to maintain world hegemony in the post cold war era is bound to generate new multiple antagonisms with China's rapid economic development and the resulting external forces. These opposites will show up in many ways. Politically, the strategy of the United States to encourage and implement a Western style liberal democracy is in sharp opposition to China's policy of adhering to the authoritative politics of communism; Economically, the relative decline of the United States and its efforts to maintain its economic hegemony are in sharp contrast to China's potential for economic rise and sustainable development; In terms of culture, the development trend of world integration and the accompanying cultural conflicts are intensifying. China is originally a big country with a unique cultural nature and a long history and civilization, and the differences and conflicts between China and the United States are also increasingly prominent; At the regional level, the United States has a trend of balanced development from east to west. It believes that it should play a leading role in the Asia Pacific region, which may become the focus of world development in the future. China has begun to develop eastward and toward the sea due to economic and geopolitical factors, and is increasingly becoming an undisputed power in the East Asia Pacific region; At the global level, the United States hopes to strengthen the so-called "international institutions" or "international regions" with the help of Western allies and international organizations In order to consolidate and strengthen the hegemonic position and leadership of the United States itself through these factors, China can become a capable "troublemaker" in the above operations by virtue of its standing as a permanent member of the United Nations, and then unite with the third world to block the attempts of western developed countries to realize their own interests.
However, this does not mean that the two factors, the United States' dominance and China's rapid rise, have completely negative and negative effects on the current relationship between China and the United States. The status of the United States as a world power determines that China, which is eager to seek economic development, will inevitably seek to obtain a variety of technical, economic and management resources from the United States. In turn, China's economic take-off provides an opportunity for developed countries, including the United States, to enter the Chinese market. Therefore, in the above context, economic factors play an important positive role in the current relationship between China and the United States. First, generally speaking, the business community and even the entire economic community are the main force pushing the US foreign policy towards pragmatism. At present, they are also the main force pushing the US policy towards China to reduce its ideological color, lower the tone of confrontation and change its attitude towards cooperation; Second, China, as a huge market, has great attraction to the United States, especially the American economic community, which is the most positive factor in the current Sino US relations.
Chapter 6: Contemporary World Economy and Policy Model
[Key words] Fiscal policy European and American economic relations World economy
At present, a major phenomenon in the world economy is that the economic relations between Europe and the United States have undergone profound structural changes. Different from the absolute advantage of the United States in the political and military fields, the economic strength on both sides of the Atlantic tends to be equal. With the end of the decade long high growth period in the United States, the disharmony or even contradiction between the policies and systems of the United States and Europe has become increasingly prominent, which will have a significant impact on the world economy. This paper attempts to analyze this from the perspective of fiscal policy.
1、 Different policy orientations in Europe and the United States
In terms of macroeconomic policies, most European countries followed Keynesianism with the United States in the 1960s and 1970s, and turned to monetarism and supply school after the 1980s. In terms of the way of financial distribution and the degree of state intervention in the economy, there are not only great differences between the United States and Europe, but also differences among European countries. Therefore, the EU has not formed a fiscal convergence framework before the formulation of the Stability and Growth Pact, so it is impossible to talk about the EU's fiscal policy route. After the mid-1990s, EU member states began to implement stable and convergent fiscal policies under the framework of the Treaty of Macedonia. At this time, the United States was in a period of high economic growth. The Clinton administration adopted a balanced budget approach, and the financial policies of Europe and the United States were relatively consistent in form.
Since the end of 2000, the United States and the European Union, following Japan, have faced the danger of declining growth and deflation. In the face of this situation, the central banks of the United States and Europe have adopted monetary policies of easing monetary policy in the same direction. The leading interest rate of the Federal Reserve fell from 6.5% to 1% in a short time, and the European Central Bank also prudently lowered the leading interest rate to 2%. If the inflation factor is removed, the real interest rates in the United States and Europe are almost zero. However, the unprecedented expansion of monetary policy has no obvious effect on reversing the economic depression and eliminating the deflationary pressure. This confirms the argument of the American economist Silin: in the case of inflation, tightening money is like tightening the rope, which has a significant effect; In the case of deflation, loosening monetary policy is like pushing a rope, with no obvious force. In this situation, the significance of fiscal policy for internal economic development has become particularly important, and the policy orientation of the United States and Europe in this regard is obviously different. The goal of the United States is to stimulate economic growth, while the EU focuses on economic and social stability.
At the beginning of 2001, just two months after taking office, the Bush administration took counter cyclical expansionary stimulus as its core policy goal, claiming that due to the needs of economic recession and anti-terrorism, the government would turn to implementing expansionary fiscal policies. Moreover, unlike the previous practice of alternating tax cuts or spending increases, this expansion is a "two pronged approach", with military spending and large-scale tax cuts simultaneously. After the implementation of the budget plan of the Bush administration, the financial balance of the United States has undergone dramatic changes. In fiscal year 2001, the US national finance benefited from the "family business" left by the Clinton administration, with a surplus of 127 billion US dollars; In 2002, the surplus turned into a deficit of $157 billion. According to the latest statistics, the US deficit is expected to increase to 455 billion US dollars in 2003, accounting for 4.5-4.8% of GDP, the highest proportion since the 1980s. Contrary to the policy of the United States, EU countries (except the United Kingdom) generally still adhere to the macro-economic policy direction of "farewell to Keynesianism", and adhere to the standard that the proportion of fiscal deficit in GDP should not exceed 3% and the national debt should not exceed 60% of GDP as stipulated in the Treaty of Mayo. The core of its policy vision is to create a long-term stable growth environment by structural reform and fiscal consolidation rather than short-term stimulus. Due to the sluggish economy, the reduction of national income, the increase of expenditure and the tax reform during this period, Germany and France, the two major countries in the EU, have violated the rules. In 2002 and 2003, the deficit ratio exceeded 3% for two consecutive years. The overall deficit level of the EU has also risen since 2001. However, the rising deficit of the EU has no obvious component to stimulate the economy, which is qualitatively different from the fiscal expansion of the United States. While the United States government was pursuing its fiscal expansion plan, the European Commission opposed the request to expand investment by raising new national debt, including increasing arms spending. In 2003, the European Commission issued a special warning to Germany (3.6%) and France (3.7%) whose deficit proportion exceeded the standard. If these countries cannot implement effective restrictions within the time limit, the EU will use the penalty sanctions mechanism. As the EU strictly adheres to the stability policy, it is expected that the proportion of the deficit will be limited to 2.4% in 2003, and may slightly fall back in 2004, with the overall level significantly lower than that of the United States.
The different policy orientations of the United States and Europe can be further identified from the differences in their fiscal revenue and expenditure structures. In terms of expenditure, the proportion of military expenditure that was already high in the US budget has risen in vain, and there is a sign of "armament Keynesianism". It is estimated that the US defense expenditure in 2002 was equivalent to 3.5% of GDP, while the overall defense expenditure of the 15 EU countries was less than 2% of GDP. In terms of amount, it was about 130 billion US dollars annually, less than 40% of the US, and showed a slight downward trend over the years. In 2003, the United States added special military spending to fight Iraq. It announced that its defense budget for 2004 would reach 400.5 billion dollars. The gap in military spending between Europe and the United States was further widened. In terms of income, in January 2003, the Bush administration proposed a tax reduction program of about 674 billion dollars. Although under the critical pressure of more than 450 domestic economists, the U.S. Congress finally passed a 10-year tax reduction plan of about $350 billion, the tax reduction was mainly implemented in 2003 ($60 billion) and 2004 ($150 billion), and the total amount of tax reduction accounted for about one-third of the structural deficit of the United States. The EU's failure to take "American style" tax cuts is determined by its economic model. EU countries have always attached great importance to social equality. The proportion of social welfare expenditure in GDP (more than 17%) has long been significantly higher than that of the United States (12%). Social expenditure, including pension and medical insurance, has a considerable degree of "rigidity", and has become one of the main reasons for its fiscal structural deficit. Some EU member states, such as France and Germany, also try to improve their economic competitiveness through tax reduction, but tax reduction measures cannot be separated from the "social task" of the Rhine model.
In addition, it should be noted that the difference in the formation mechanism of European and American fiscal policies is also one aspect of their different policy orientations. The United States does not have the legal provisions of the European Union to impose explicit restrictions on national debt and fiscal deficits, so its fiscal policy is more vulnerable to short-term boom factors and political factors, especially the political philosophy and line of political parties. The fiscal line is unstable and uncertain due to the change of political parties. The EU has incorporated national finance into the legal framework of policy convergence. Although fiscal policy is still nominally controlled by all countries, the actions of member governments have actually been subject to "soft constraints". Therefore, the EU's overall medium - and long-term fiscal route has certain stability and transparency, and is relatively less affected by political and economic fluctuations.
2、 Analysis of the root causes of policy differences
The different orientations of the US and Europe's fiscal policies reflect the differences between their boom policies in appearance, while from the root analysis, it reveals that there are obvious differences between the US and the EU in policy concepts, institutional models, etc.
The main growth goal of successive US governments after the war was to reduce unemployment and eliminate inflation. Due to the difference between the economic philosophy of the Republican Party and that of the Republican Party, there are certain variables in the economic policy of the United States due to the change of political parties. The Bush administration's economic philosophy has many similarities with Reagan's economics. It not only attaches importance to the "short-term stimulus intervention" aimed at growth and employment, but also emphasizes the creation of an investment environment for large enterprises to promote investment and growth.
The United States maintained a sustained growth without inflation throughout the 1990s, which "set" a huge internal growth pressure on the Bush administration, which was facing the danger of depression and deflation at the beginning of taking office. Western countries, including the United States, are aware that this economic crisis may be the most serious crisis since the mid-1970s. Among the successive presidents of the United States after the war, the economic growth rate of Bush came to power at the lowest level, which directly threatened the credibility of the economic policies of the Bush administration. Due to the widespread overcapacity in industrial countries and the increasing pressure of deflation, Japan's efforts to stimulate aggregate demand in the past decade have been fruitless, and the room for adjustment of fiscal and monetary policies has nearly "dried up". The United States' expansionary monetary policy has been ineffective for a long time. These factors have prompted the United States to take "preventive" measures to stimulate the economy, which has become an urgent task for the government. On January 7, 2003, the Bush administration announced the Employment and Growth Plan and huge tax cuts to curb high unemployment and low growth, reflecting the increasing internal pressure on President Bush to avoid repeating his father's failure in the 1992 election due to neglect of the economy.
From the perspective of the international environment in which the United States is located, the change in its competitive position has increased the external pressure on the United States to maintain economic growth and maintain its role as the world's "locomotive". The growth leadership of the United States is closely related to its global high-tech and market position. During the Cold War, the United States adopted an "absolute benefit" policy to support the economic development of Europe and Japan, and its leadership role in the world economy also established its leading position in the world market and the international economic order. With the recovery and development of the economies of Europe and Japan, the proportion of the United States in the world output value dropped from about 50% in 1950 to about 25% in the mid-1980s. Especially when Japan emerged as a new force in the global automobile industry, machine manufacturing industry, semiconductor and other industries in the mid-1980s, while Germany, another major industrial country, even exceeded the United States in terms of total exports, The United States is alert to the danger of losing its leading position in the world economy and important international markets. To this end, the United States has adopted the idea of "active economic nationalism", with national institutions including the Pentagon taking the lead in promoting high-tech development to "regain the leading position of the United States in world technology and industry". During this period, the Ministry of Finance has developed more than 2000 new technologies with a 10-year, $30 billion project allocation for the strategic defense plan alone. This kind of national investment has played a key role in recovering the loss of the United States' economic and technological position. Since 1992, the economic growth rate driven by high-tech in the United States has again exceeded that of Japan and the European Union, becoming the locomotive of the world economy. American industry not only regained its advantage in the world commodity market, but also expanded its leading position in the service industry. With the expansion of American transnational corporations in various regions, the United States has also promoted production abroad and expanded imports (in 1993, the production of transnational corporations reached 43% of the imports of the United States). The locomotive role of the US economy has made it ranked among the most competitive countries again in terms of growth rate and world market share. Its GDP proportion in the world output value has rebounded to more than 1/3, and it has again surpassed and widened its distance from Europe and Japan in such fields as per capita output value, labor productivity, and information technology popularization.
The launch of the euro has added a new growth pressure to the United States - to protect capital flow. At present, 20% of the investment in the entire American economy needs to be compensated by capital input, which has become a key issue of the American economy. In the mid-1980s, after the United States changed from the world's largest creditor country to the largest debtor country, the special status of the dollar has not been fundamentally shaken, but the launch of the euro has challenged this status. In 2001, when the US economy showed signs of recession, international investors began to look at the US financial market rationally. A large outflow of capital occurred in the US stock market and securities market, which was a serious warning to the US. Without capital input, the gap between the US fiscal deficit and trade deficit cannot be bridged, and the US locomotive will lose power. In order to ensure capital flow, the United States must win a certain growth rate and capital return effect. In order to win growth, the Bush administration had to adopt extraordinary fiscal stimulus measures.
Since 2001, the trend of deflation in industrial countries has been an important obstacle to the economic recovery of the United States. Greenspan, the chairman of the Federal Reserve, has repeatedly reminded that "the risk of deflation has not been eliminated in the United States, which is the biggest concern of the central bank in the foreseeable period". On the causes of worldwide deflation, the famous American strategic investor A. Gali. Xilin put forward two points: first, investment and demand inflation emerged in the long-term inflation process after the war, and excessive investment in some industries buried the incentive for deflation. The end of the cold war has changed the global supply and demand structure, the excess investment of industrial countries and the economic bubble have resulted in excess production capacity, and the development of new technologies has not opened up new worldwide economic growth points. When supply growth leads to demand saturation, deflation pressure will be formed. Second, after the end of the cold war, global military spending gradually declined, and capital flows to civilian consumption and investment, accelerating supply and causing deflationary pressure. Historically, some modern world wars, especially the two world wars, have confirmed a certain relationship between war and demand changes. However, in today's economic globalization, the government can choose different countermeasures against deflation: first, adjust the market structure against overproduction, optimize the international division of labor, curb the emergence of bubble economy, and "take drastic measures" against the root causes of deflation; The second is to follow the old concept and alleviate the pressure of deflation by expanding national expenditure, including the artificial demand for armaments. The Bush administration has obviously adopted the latter policy. The deflationary pressure prevailing in industrial countries has an important catalytic effect on the "armament Keynesian" financial decision of the United States. From the amendment to the US defense budget for fiscal year 2002 submitted by Bush on June 30, 2001, it can be seen that the Bush administration actually showed a tendency to expand arms spending before "September 11", that is, after the economic downturn. The "9.11 incident" has made the previously infeasible huge expenditure on armaments more "justifiable", while in fact some armaments expanded in this name have little to do with counter-terrorism. The role of the strong expansion of US fiscal expenditure is obvious. With the rise of military expenditure, the stock index of the arms industry has risen sharply after years of stagnation, which has driven the stock market to a certain extent. In terms of income, in addition to the fiscal stimulus effect of supporting the expansion of arms expenditure, the tax reduction measures of the United States can also improve the investment environment and enhance the competitiveness of enterprises to a certain extent. This policy fully reflects the economic thinking of the Bush administration.
Since the late 1980s, the EU has been pursuing the goal of stable growth of low inflation, low deficit and limited national debt in the medium and long term, and has gradually abandoned the counter cyclical economic policy. In 1989, the Delors Report proposed to establish an economic and monetary union. In 1993, the Mayo Treaty included macroeconomic development in the unified development framework. In 1997, the Amsterdam Treaty established the Stability and Growth Pact. These strategic decisions all run through a main line of economic policies: to form a fiscal policy for the common stability and synchronous development of member countries, so as to buffer internal and external economic shocks, Avoid economic overheating or recession from interfering with long-term macroeconomic stability. The establishment of such economic ideas in the EU is determined by internal and external factors. First of all, after all the post-war economic recessions, the EU recognized that high fiscal deficits and national debts would raise the interest rate in the capital market, affect private investment and damage the foundation of long-term growth. In the past, EU countries were economically divided into "hard currency" countries such as Germany, the Netherlands, Belgium and Luxembourg, and "soft currency" countries such as Italy, Portugal and Spain. Their macro policies were independent. Because fiscal expansion has increased the deficit and national debt burden, and promoted the inflation rate and interest rate to rise, it has not only suppressed economic growth, but also repeatedly caused exchange rate crises among European countries, and exacerbated the impact of the dollar crisis on European finance. In the European financial crisis in 1992, Italy and Britain had to withdraw from the European monetary system, which is a typical example. Therefore, Europe needs to establish a legally binding economic and monetary union and implement a unified and stable policy. Secondly, in the international comparison, the proportion of national expenditure in GDP in Europe is larger than that in the United States, and the proportion of total investment in GDP is lower than that in the United States, so the economic vitality is insufficient. Although according to the Mayo, the proportion of interest expenditure on national debt in GDP of many countries has declined since 2001, it is still more than 3%. The excessive proportion of interest expenditure in fiscal expenditure limits the scope for fiscal policy regulation. For this reason, the EU has to adhere to the Stability and Growth Pact for a long time to create a benign overall macro-control environment.
Objectively speaking, after the downturn of the economy in 2001, the convergence policy of EU to limit deficit and national debt was unfavorable to the recovery of the economy, so it was strongly criticized by Germany and France in particular. The European Commission launched a major discussion on this issue in the autumn of 2002, and then decided to pursue a long-term stability strategy, requiring all countries to continue to comply with the Stability and Growth Pact. This further indicates that the EU is making efforts to shift to the "long-term stability intervention model". The EU is aware that if it gives up halfway, its three goals of long-term stability will be destroyed. The three goals are to avoid large cyclical fluctuations and get rid of the stimulus boom recession re stimulus boom policy; Establish a stable foundation for the euro through stable finance; To guard against creeping things, it did not open a gap for the new member states of the upcoming SPLM to violate the convergence policy, which led to the standard of the Mayo in name only.
To analyze the fiscal policies of Europe and the United States from the economic perspective alone cannot fully understand the essential differences of their different orientations. Through a comparative analysis of the relationship between European and American interest groups and government decision-making, we can further reveal the social background of their different orientations from a political and economic perspective. The relationship between American interest groups and the government's fiscal policy decisions is more direct and close than that of the EU. The interest relationship of the consortium has an important impact on the economic and political ideas of different parties. Economist Anton. When Zishka analyzed the role of the Pentagon in his book "The Dollar", he vividly compared the huge military procurement of the Ministry of Defense to "the largest employer in the world". Its huge orders connected the relationship between power decision-making and interest groups. This relationship has its historical origins. Since the end of World War II, many important officials in the US military have occupied important positions in the Ministry of Defense, industry, finance and so on. The Ministry of Defense has a strong lineup of outside groups in Congress, including the military, the government and the economic community, which affect policy decisions. This kind of relationship exists all the time, although it has different manifestations in the Republican Party and the period of administration. From 1990 to 1996 after the Cold War, the US military procurement, scientific research and military expenditure showed a downward trend, after which the US adopted a "government industry joint strategy". Since 1999, the military scientific research and procurement costs in the US financial expenditure have increased again in excess of the proportion, and the government has brought huge support to industry again through this joint strategy. Chen Peier, an international security strategist, analyzed the interaction among the three parties of power, wealth and decision-making in the United States today in the book "Changes in World Policy". He said that the top leadership of the current Bush administration is the team of the Reagan "Big Consortium" government, and is the benefit representative of arms and industrial energy. Instead of changing with the end of the Cold War and the trend of interdependence in the world economy, the relationship between the United States arms industry and the authority has been consolidated through anti-terrorism and war against Iraq. This kind of relationship structure is an important economic basis for the neoconservative economic policy and foreign policy of the United States; In turn, the security concept of neo realism has become the political basis for maintaining its influence and wealth. In this context, US fiscal decisions tend to deviate from economic laws to varying degrees.
In Europe, interest groups that can have an impact on the EU's convergent fiscal policy framework are more diversified because they cover a wider range of fields. Since the Treaty of Rome, European interest groups have been driven by interests to promote the process of European internal market and European economic integration. At the same time, their own structure, the interest relationship with the authority and the way of influence have also undergone important changes: interest groups of member countries have been included in the mechanism of multinational coordination and multilateral management of economic integration. Complementing the diplomatic and security concept of "European characteristics", the entire arms industry of the EU is significantly smaller than that of the United States, and the outside group of the arms industry has not formed a super "climate". This is closely related to the structural "multipolar" development of European interest groups. In the 1990s, major integration decisions such as the European Unification Document and the Treaty of Mayo set a directional goal for interest groups, that is, to promote multiple interests. Influenced by the Rhine model, the EU specifically strengthened the operation mechanism of "social partners" (including social interest groups such as labor protection, consumer protection and welfare) in the Mayo to exert influence on the power institutions. The "power" of these interest groups has led to the welfare burden of the EU being greater than that of the United States, which has weakened its economic competitiveness. On the other hand, it has also maintained a relatively fair financial distribution to a certain extent. At present, there is a trend of joint development among European interest groups. The highest federations of various professions, industries and economies are breaking through the boundaries of nation-state, organizing transnational interest groups at the European level, and exerting influence on the European Commission through various channels. However, they mainly strive for self-interest development environment in EU legislation, rule making, policy coordination and fund allocation quota. More importantly, the EU economic authority has begun to exercise unified management of regionalization, so its decisions do not "care" for the special interests of a country, an industry or a group. In short, European national interest groups have special channels to influence the EU's power institutions and policies, including fiscal policy, but their ability to directly influence decision-making is significantly restricted.
3、 Impact on the world economy
After the end of the Cold War, the internal contradictions of the market economy system, such as imbalance and instability, have not been alleviated, but have been further deepened due to the overcapacity of industrial countries and increased competition. At present, the impact of the macroeconomic policies of the United States and the European Union has gone beyond the scope of their respective national economies. However, because they pursue different economic policies, the economic policies of the United States have obvious uncertainty and instability, while the economic policies of the European Union have obvious limitations on stabilizing the world economy, Although the market economy system continues to be promoted geographically, the world economy is fragile due to the lack of effective and coordinated global governance.
The first is the vulnerability to growth. In the near future, the sharp expansion fiscal policy of the United States can alleviate the pressure of deflation to a certain extent and stimulate the economic recovery. In the medium and short term, the United States can play a role as the locomotive supporting the world economy, but there are greater uncertainties hidden behind this growth model. In the long run, it is increasingly problematic for the world economy to rely on the "traction system" of American growth. First, the main reasons for the deflation trend and weak growth in the United States are overcapacity and related structural problems, such as investment bubbles, low private savings rates, and high private debt ratios caused by the stock market crash. If we do not adjust for structural reasons, relying only on deficit fiscal stimulus and artificially expanding demand, this will have a side effect on long-term economic development and may lay the groundwork for the next round of overcapacity, inflation and financial turmoil. The more thorny problem is that the inflation of deficit and the surge of national debt will lead to the rise of real interest rates, which will inhibit long-term investment and growth. Second, education should be based on the effect of tax reduction; The effect of stimulating investment or consumption under the pressure of deflation is obviously different. The current measures taken by the United States first give preferential treatment to the highest income class accounting for 1% of the country's population (their income can therefore increase by 7%, while the income of the middle class can only increase by 2% at most, and the income of the low-income class may therefore decrease by 1%). This helps stimulate investment, but it has limited effect on expanding consumer demand, so the promotion effect on long-term growth should be discounted. Third, in the long run, the United States will enter an aging society after Japan and Europe. As the proportion of the employed population tends to decline, the social burden increases, and the consumption demand of the whole society decreases, weakening the foundation for domestic demand to drive growth. These problems of the United States itself will restrict its growth potential, thus weakening the driving force for the world economy.
The EU's fiscal policy focuses on the stability of its internal structure and lacks the policy motivation and role of promoting world economic growth. There are subjective and objective factors that make it difficult for the EU to do anything about world economic growth. Subjectively, the EU's policy vision is not to pursue high growth at all costs, but to focus on long-term and stable "qualitative growth" goals; Objectively, the EU is constrained by structural problems, such as the relatively small internal market and heavy social burden. In addition, the economic policy of convergence pursued by the EU is still a new thing in international affairs. The EU has not yet found a theoretical innovation to effectively manage recession while maintaining stability, so it has to bear the cost of sluggish growth when limiting deficits and maintaining fiscal convergence goals. As the EU has set a deficit ratio of 3% to limit the policy space for countries on the verge of recession to promote growth, Germany, France, Italy, Britain and other countries have to expect external markets, including the United States, to lead them in the short term. If the United States falls into recession, no country in the European Union can play a role in pulling it. The world economy has to fluctuate under the unstable conditions dominated by the United States.
Secondly, the different fiscal orientations of the EU and the United States have an indirect impact on international capital flows and exchange rate fluctuations, but the risks are obvious: the rising "twin deficit" of the United States and the "single deficit" controlled by the EU (in 2001 and 2002, the EU's current account settlement "turned losses into gains") The comparison between the US dollar and the euro has become an important parameter in the international capital market. Financial speculation has been stimulated and exchange rate risk has increased significantly. From the perspective of important factors affecting exchange rate stability, the current advantage of the US dollar is that it has regained its growth rate, but it is at a disadvantage in terms of fiscal budget balance, trade settlement and domestic capital composition. Its foundation has been eroded, and the US dollar tends to depreciate. At present, it is still uncertain whether the United States will stick to the weak dollar policy or push the trend of the capital market. But what is certain is that because the "double deficits" increase at the same time and the debt burden increases, the US economy is more dependent on foreign capital than ever. At present, the capital attracted by the United States has accounted for 80% of the global capital output. The lack of financial resources of the United States will directly affect the international capital flow and the stability of the international exchange rate. The sharp fluctuation of the US dollar exchange rate in the first half of 2003, if Japan had not invested 9 trillion yen (75 billion US dollars) in extraordinary intervention, the decline of the US dollar would have been more fierce. The two structural changes that have occurred in the international capital market indicate the possibility of future capital flows and increased volatility of exchange rates. One is that from 2001 to 2002, the direct investment and securities investment flowing into the United States shrank sharply. In particular, the capital flowing from Europe to the United States, including direct investment, securities and other investments, fell from $450.2 billion to $226.4 billion, almost by half; The other is that oil producing countries in the Middle East have a closer investment relationship with the euro area. Some countries have converted part of their dollar reserves into euros and withdrawn a large number of deposits in the United States. It should be said that the United States is the most attractive investment place in the world by virtue of its economic strength and high-tech productivity. However, the establishment of the European Economic and Monetary Union has weakened the "gravitational" advantage of the United States from the outside. The rising "twin deficit" of the United States further weakens this advantage from the inside. Investors have doubts about whether the United States can maintain the required capital input for a long time. All these factors will aggravate the speculative nature of international hot money, adding difficulties to stabilizing international capital flows and exchange rates. The International Monetary Fund has warned that the rising interest rate in the international capital market and the US fiscal deficit and current account deficit will increase the risk of exchange rate crisis. The birth of the euro has strengthened the EU's ability to withstand the turbulence of the US dollar more than before. East Asian countries that have close trade relations with the United States and are linked to the US dollar will suffer from exchange rate turbulence, and their terms of trade, monetary reserves and financial management systems will be negatively affected by financial turbulence.
Chapter 7: Contemporary World Economy and Policy Model
1.1 Discipline comprehensiveness
From the perspective of course name and content, Contemporary World Economy and Politics is a highly comprehensive course. The content involves not only world economy, international politics, world military affairs, international relations and world history, but also political science, diplomacy and other knowledge. It is precisely because of the interdisciplinary nature of this course that students can enrich their knowledge and broaden their horizons through the study of this course, and on this basis, objectively analyze the hot issues in reality with independent views and perspectives.
1.2 Timeliness
In terms of time, the course Contemporary World Economy and Politics mainly introduces the development and changes of contemporary world politics, economy and international relations since the Second World War. However, the concept of "contemporary" in the course name itself is a constantly changing concept, and time has also been moving forward, which determines that this course is a highly time sensitive course. The relevant parts before the war are only briefly reviewed in order to better understand the contemporary era. The focus is to introduce the development and changes of reality and predict its development trend. Therefore, in addition to the changes in the world economy, politics, military affairs, diplomacy and foreign relations of major countries after World War II, the textbook also needs to update and supplement the teaching content in a timely manner, especially some hot current events in the international community.
1.3 Policy
Contemporary World Economy and Politics is also a political theory course to study, publicize and implement the Party's line, principles and policies. In addition to describing the political and economic conditions of various countries, it also needs to analyze the foreign policies of various countries, including our country's foreign policies, and explain the principles and policies of our party and country in international exchanges and struggles, It has strong policy and political sensitivity. This requires teachers to follow the guidance of Deng Xiaoping Theory, the important thought of "Three Represents" and the Scientific Outlook on Development in teaching, always grasp the correct political direction, pay attention to the educational function of political theory courses, and enable students to have a deep understanding of China's independent foreign policy and the idea of adhering to the path of peaceful development. Guide students to understand, think about and solve problems from the perspective of Marxism.
2. Improve the professional quality of the teachers of Contemporary World Economy and Politics
2.1 Broaden knowledge
Teachers are the carriers of the reform and innovation of teaching methods and teaching methods. To improve the teaching effect, teachers must constantly enrich themselves in teaching practice. The comprehensiveness and interdisciplinary nature of the course "Contemporary World Economy and Politics" determines that teachers must constantly carry out professional learning, optimize the knowledge structure, and at the same time expand their knowledge and have comprehensive and rich knowledge reserves. On the basis of being familiar with the teaching materials, teachers should pay more attention to the knowledge of economics, political science and international relations, so as to form a comprehensive and rich knowledge structure and make their teaching content more in-depth and attractive.
2.2 Keep abreast of current events
The timeliness of the course "Contemporary World Economy and Politics" determines that teachers must grasp the cutting-edge dynamics of theories and current events, care about current events, and constantly provide new cases and materials for the teaching content. It is difficult for "contemporary" teachers to stimulate students' interest in learning if they stick to textbooks and follow the textbooks. If we can timely integrate the latest and most important events at home and abroad into the classroom, and guide students to analyze and discuss, we can effectively stimulate students' interest in learning. This kind of teaching method is also most helpful to help students correctly view the development and change of world economy and politics. Therefore, in the process of classroom teaching, we not only need to tell the key and difficult points required by the syllabus, but also need to grasp the cutting-edge trends of current events, and be able to link up with contemporary hot issues in the teaching process.
2.3 Combination of theory and reality
Contemporary World Economy and Politics is not a simple course of international situation. It has its own specific curriculum system, basic content and basic theory, and has a strong ideological and theoretical nature. Contemporary college students are also the most sensitive group to new things and new ideas. If the content of "contemporary" courses cannot solve the problems raised by students, no matter what advanced methods are used, it is impossible for students to agree with them. Therefore, in the process of teaching Contemporary World Economy and Politics, teachers should, on the one hand, make students understand the influential schools, scholars and representative ideas in the research of contemporary international social problems, on the other hand, they must put the focus of theoretical teaching on connecting with reality and solving problems. Finally, it can achieve the teaching effect that not only improves the students' theoretical knowledge, but also strengthens their ability to analyze and observe international issues.
3 Improve the teaching methods of Contemporary World Economy and Politics in various ways to improve the teaching effect
3.1 Select teaching materials and organize class discussion by topic
The textbook is the carrier of the knowledge structure of a course and the basis for teachers to carry out classroom teaching. After more than 20 years of development, the "contemporary" curriculum has many optional textbook versions. In the process of teaching, I selected Contemporary World Political Economy and International Relations, which was edited by Feng Tejun and published by Renmin University Press of China. Because this textbook is not limited to teaching the economic and political situation of the contemporary world, but also includes the contents of the current international relations between major powers. And compared with other versions of the textbook, this textbook adds international hot issues such as the US Iraq war in recent years, which highlights the timeliness of the curriculum. In addition, in the teaching of "contemporary" courses, students can be stimulated to think about the world situation through various forms, such as sub topic discussion. Thematic discussion is to deepen and further sort out the teaching materials, help highlight the key points, solve the difficulties, and also enhance students' thinking ability on practical problems. In the sub topic discussion, the teacher should first determine the topic of the topic discussion in combination with the teaching content and purpose, and then let the students collect and sort out materials and think about problems on the basis of being familiar with the teaching materials. Finally, the teacher should organize classroom discussions according to the content of the topic, and finally make a summary and supplement. This way can deepen students' understanding of the teaching content, thus expanding the teaching content to a certain extent.
3.2 Classroom discussion or debate centered on hot issues
Hot issues are important or sensitive issues in the reality of the international community, and they are the focus and highlight on the international stage. Organizing classroom discussion and debate on hot issues is the most effective teaching method that combines the theory of "contemporary" curriculum with reality. This method can also maximize the subjectivity and subjectivity of students, and ultimately improve the teaching effect. Teachers can provide discussion centers with controversial major issues and international hot issues, for example, how to view Putin's influence on Russian politics? How to view the impact of the BRICs on the world economic pattern? Then guide students to find materials and analyze them from different perspectives, write small papers or speech materials, and divide them into groups for discussion and debate according to their views. Finally, the teacher will make a summary and analysis according to the students' discussion or debate. In this process, students will be trained to make an objective analysis of practical problems.
3.3 Use case teaching to cultivate students' analytical ability
Case teaching brings vivid examples into the classroom, combines theory and practice, abstraction and concreteness, and helps to cultivate students' thinking ability and mobilize their enthusiasm, thus improving students' ability to find, analyze and solve problems. When using the case teaching method in the teaching of "contemporary" courses, teachers should first select some typical, contemporary, novel, readable and knowledgeable cases in the use of cases; Secondly, teachers should integrate case teaching into relevant chapters, and explain some key issues as cases to help teaching. For example, when telling about the trend and characteristics of political development in the world today, the part of "traditional security threats and non-traditional security threats are intertwined" can be explained with the help of the case of the threat that AIDS, known as the "century plague" and "century killer", has brought to people around the world; When telling the chapter about the economy and politics of Russia and other CIS countries after the Cold War, we can select cases such as "Putin's New Deal" and "Russia's energy diplomacy" in combination with Russia's political reality to explain. Teaching practice has proved that case analysis can highlight the vividness and importance of some chapters of the course, and can analyze problems more deeply and systematically.
3.4 Introduce modern teaching means with the help of multimedia materials
Chapter 8: Contemporary World Economy and Policy Model
Since the 1970s, many countries and regions in the world have witnessed a sustained and significant decline in the inflation rate, and the prices of all kinds of products except oil have declined to varying degrees. According to the statistics of the World Bank, the world inflation rate, calculated by the GDP deflator, was 9.0% in the 1970s, dropped to 5.8% and 3.7% in the 1980s and 1990s, and further dropped to 2.3% and 1.7% in 2001 and 2002. Among them, the inflation rates of industrialized countries such as the United States, Europe and Japan were 8.7%, 4.6% and 2.0% respectively in the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s, and further dropped to 1.5% and 1.1% in 2001 and 2002; The inflation rate of Asian emerging industrial economies was 9.5%, 4.7% and 2.4% respectively in the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s, and even dropped to - 2.0% and - 1.2% in 2001 and 2002; The inflation rate of other countries and regions shows an obvious downward trend on the whole. Even if calculated according to the consumer price index, the inflation rate of the above countries and regions showed a similar downward trend in the same period.
Seen from the situation in the past two years, against the background of the low growth and weak recovery of the world economy, the decline in the prices of all kinds of commodities in the world has a further trend, especially the prices of industrial manufactured goods and information electronic products have generally fallen sharply, which seriously restricts the recovery of the world economy. The consumer price index of the United States rose by only 1.0% in 2001, the lowest level since the 1960s. In 2002, the prices of all kinds of commodities in the United States continued to decline, among which the investment price of enterprise equipment fell by 1.0%, the price of durable consumer goods such as automobiles and household appliances fell by 2.4%, the price of clothing products fell by 2.2%, and the price of personal computers fell by 20.9%. Moreover, the downward trend of prices has also spread from manufacturing to the advantageous service industry in the United States, with hotel prices falling by 2.1%, air ticket prices falling by 3.8%, and the price index of the telephone service industry falling by 4.0%. Deflation is becoming a new challenge for the US economy. The deflation trend in Japan is more severe. The consumer price index has fallen for four consecutive years since 1999, with the decline rates of - 0.3%, - 0.8%, - 0.7% and - 1.0% respectively. In the meantime, although Japan has taken measures aimed at introducing inflation, such as implementing the zero interest rate policy, inducing the depreciation of the yen and increasing the money supply, the deflation trend has not shown any signs of easing up so far. Although the inflation rate in the euro area is slightly higher than the upper limit of 2% set by the European Central Bank due to the rise in energy and food prices, many commodity and service prices face downward pressure due to insufficient demand. The inflation rate of Asian newly industrialized economies calculated by the consumer price index also dropped below 2%, which was only 1.1%, 1.9% and 1.1% in 2000-2002, and there has been no sign of inflation so far. At present, only Russia and other CIS countries, as well as Turkey and Argentina and other Latin American countries with financial turmoil, have inflation rates in excess of double digits, but even these countries and regions have tended to stabilize and decline.
It can be seen from the above that although the global price index shows an obvious continuous downward trend, the general price level still maintains a certain increase, indicating that there has not been global deflation in the strict sense yet. Among the major countries and regions in the world, only Japan's price level has declined in the past two or three years, while the price level in the United States, Europe, East Asia and other regions is still rising moderately. However, as the global inflation rate has continued to fall to a very low level of less than 2%, the prices of many products and services have generally declined recently, and the inflation rate of major countries and regions has been at the lowest level in the post-war history, and there are almost no obvious signs of inflation, the world economy is indeed facing an increasing risk of deflation, The possibility of global deflation is increasing.
2、 Main reasons for the global deflation trend
The reasons for the continuous decline of price levels and even deflation in different countries and regions are different. From a global perspective, the following factors are the main reasons for the global deflation trend.
First of all, the information technology revolution has greatly promoted the industrial technological progress and the improvement of labor productivity. While reducing production costs and increasing output supply, it will inevitably lead to the continuous decline of the relative price of products. Since the 1990s, the high-tech industry led by the information technology industry has developed rapidly, and its proportion in the industrial composition of countries around the world has been rising. Because high-tech industries such as information technology have the characteristics of endless technological innovation and rapid product upgrading, they constantly improve the technical content and quality while constantly reducing product prices. At the same time, information technology has also rapidly spread to other industries. Due to the extensive use of information technology in the traditional manufacturing industry, the R&D and manufacturing capacity and level of its products have been continuously improved, making manufacturers continuously reduce production costs and product prices. After the adoption of information, network and modern communication technology, the service industry can provide more personalized services at a relatively low cost than before, and the service price also shows a downward trend.
Secondly, in the era of economic globalization, new changes have taken place in the international industrial division and transfer mode, and the global competition is becoming increasingly fierce. The expansion of production capacity and the intensification of market competition make it difficult for the prices of many products to rise. In order to adapt to the new situation of increasing international competition in the era of economic globalization, while enterprises in developed countries continue to transfer traditional industries to developing countries to make room for the development of new economies, they also transfer many different production and manufacturing links of high-tech products to developing countries with lower labor costs as far as possible according to the principle of lowest cost. It focuses on technology development, brand management and marketing network construction, and achieves the goal of reducing production costs and improving profitability by optimizing resource allocation globally. In order to adapt to the new changes in international industrial division and transfer mode, developing countries should give full play to the advantages of low labor production costs to introduce large amounts of investment from transnational corporations, constantly improve the level of processing and manufacturing technology and expand production capacity, and strive to join the production and marketing network of transnational corporations to share some benefits. The result is that the overcapacity of many products in the world and the further intensification of international market competition will eventually lead to the decline of product prices.
Thirdly, the imbalance of world economic development has led to the widening of the global gap between rich and poor, exacerbated the contradiction of insufficient aggregate demand, and is an important reason for the global deflation trend. In the process of economic globalization, developed countries and developing countries are in different positions and share different interests. Multinational companies in developed countries control the core technology, brand and marketing network of products, so they can obtain most of the profits from production and sales of products, while the majority of developing countries can only earn a small amount of product processing fees. Not only that, when multinational companies transfer manufacturing processes to developing countries or reduce production costs by outsourcing production, they also intensify the competition for domestic ordinary jobs, thus lowering the wage level of ordinary labor. The result is that it has restricted the improvement of the purchasing power of ordinary workers in developing and developed countries, making the contradiction of insufficient global effective demand increasingly acute, and the general price level has slowed down, resulting in the formation of global deflationary pressure.
Finally, many countries have long pursued macroeconomic policies with anti inflation as the primary goal, which has effectively reduced the global inflation rate, but also to a large extent caused the current global general price level to decline. In the 1970s and 1980s, most of the major developed countries in the United States and Europe experienced serious inflation or even stagflation, so that macroeconomic policies in the 1990s generally focused on curbing and preventing inflation. During the eight years of the Clinton administration, the U.S. fiscal budget policy has always been aimed at reducing government spending, reducing budget deficits and ultimately achieving fiscal surpluses; The Federal Reserve's monetary policy also focuses on preventing economic overheating and preventing inflation from resurgence. As long as there is a sign of economic overheating that may cause inflation, preventive measures will be taken to raise interest rates. In the nearly 10 years since the transition to a single currency, the EU has set strict standards for economic convergence, requiring member countries to implement stability oriented macroeconomic policies and strive to achieve sustained economic growth with low inflation or even without inflation. Among them, the fiscal policy focuses on reducing government spending and reducing the fiscal deficit, ultimately reducing the fiscal deficit to less than 3% of GDP, and striving to achieve budget balance and a slight surplus in the medium term; Monetary policy also focuses on strictly controlling the money supply and reducing the inflation rate to promote the decline and convergence of inflation rates among member countries; The wage policy requires that nominal wage growth should not lead to inflation, and that real wage growth should not exceed the increase in labor productivity. After the establishment of the European Central Bank, the monetary policy with price stability as the primary goal was implemented in the euro area, which stipulated that the inflation rate in the euro area should not exceed the upper limit of 2%, and the growth of the broad money supply should be kept at about 45%.
The anti inflation macroeconomic policies implemented by the developed countries in the United States and Europe have also had a demonstration effect on other countries. Faced with serious inflation in the process of economic transition, Russia and other CIS countries, as well as Central and Eastern European countries, have also mostly adopted macroeconomic policies that significantly reduce government spending, reduce the money supply and raise interest rates. When the International Monetary Fund provides aid loans to countries in East Asia and Latin America suffering from financial crisis, it also requires these countries to adopt similar macroeconomic policies. The macroeconomic policy of reducing inflation to promote stable economic growth prevailing in the 1990s has had an important impact on the formation of the current global deflation trend.
3、 The world economy will not fall into the deflation trap in the foreseeable future
From the above main factors leading to the global deflation trend and the current trend of the world economy, there are many reasons for the continuous decline of the current global price level, but none of them will necessarily lead to global deflation in a strict sense. The world economy is unlikely to decline in the foreseeable future, and will not fall into the deflation trap.
First, the decline in product prices based on the decline in production costs, caused by structural factors such as technological progress, increased labor productivity, changes in enterprise production and marketing methods, and intensified market competition in the era of economic globalization, will not necessarily lead to deflation and hinder world economic growth, but will also be of positive significance, It is an inevitable manifestation of the continuous progress of the mode of production in human society. Historically, most developed countries have experienced a long-term decline in price levels due to technological progress, higher labor productivity and lower production costs, but this has not hindered sustained economic growth. For example, in the process of industrialization, the price level of major Western European countries continued to decline for 21 years from 1874-1895, but their economies continued to grow. The price level in the United States also continued to decline from 1917 to 1922, which also did not hinder its economic growth. From the current situation, although the increase in labor productivity and the intensification of market competition brought about by the information technology revolution and economic globalization have led to a more obvious downward trend in production costs and price levels, it has not affected the growth of the world economy, nor is it the fundamental cause of economic recession or deflation in individual countries and regions. The deflation in Japan is largely caused by the fact that after the bubble economy burst, the traditional economic system, economic structure and economic development model did not adapt to the new situation, resulting in a long-term downturn in domestic demand, as well as the sharp increase of non-performing creditor's rights in the financial system, credit contraction and other reasons. The recession of the U.S. economy is related to the bursting of the new economic bubble, excessive investment in the information technology industry, terrorist attacks and other factors. The economic recession in East Asia and Latin America in recent years is mainly caused by the unsound financial system and financial market turbulence.
Secondly, the slowdown of world economic growth and the decline of global price level caused by insufficient effective demand and overcapacity of some industries have certain periodicity, which will not necessarily evolve into global deflation, and can be changed through the adjustment of macroeconomic policies and industrial structure of various countries. The imbalance between total demand and total supply caused by insufficient effective demand and overproduction is the direct reason for the decline of general price level and economic recession. If the laissez faire policy is adopted without intervention, the spontaneous adjustment of the market mechanism may eventually lead to economic recession or deflation. However, no matter in the contemporary developed countries or developing countries, the government has a strong macro-economic control capacity and means, and various forms of macroeconomic policy coordination mechanisms have emerged internationally. Therefore, in the face of insufficient effective demand and overproduction that may lead to economic recession or deflation, governments of all countries tend to correspondingly adopt various forms of expansionary fiscal and monetary policies to stimulate and expand demand, so as to prevent the economy from falling into recession or deflation due to insufficient effective demand. At the industrial level, economic globalization has also created conditions for enterprises to accelerate the elimination of excess production capacity and adjust the industrial structure and layout, and to a certain extent, it has alleviated the possible lasting adverse impact of excess production capacity on economic growth.
In fact, in recent years, most governments and enterprises around the world have taken similar active measures to prevent and mitigate possible economic recession or deflation. For example, after the Bush administration took office, in the face of the decline in the growth rate of the U.S. economy and the possibility of sliding into a cyclical recession, it adopted a series of fiscal policies characterized by large-scale tax cuts and increased government spending to deal with the economic downturn. After recognizing that the main threat to the economy is insufficient demand, the Federal Reserve also did not hesitate to significantly reduce interest rates for 12 consecutive times to stimulate economic growth, It has played a huge role in slowing down the recession of the US economy and promoting the rapid recovery of the economy. After the Asian financial crisis, most East Asian countries adopted macroeconomic policies focusing on expanding domestic demand, which to some extent reduced the dependence of economic growth on external demand and enhanced the autonomy of economic growth. At the same time, countries around the world have also accelerated the pace of industrial restructuring, and cultivated new economic growth points by eliminating and reducing backward excess production capacity and constantly developing emerging industries. These macro-economic control and industrial structure adjustment measures have effectively prevented the world economy from sliding further into recession or deflation, and kept the world economy growing to a certain extent.
Thirdly, the modern monetary system is based on the non convertible paper money, and the central bank theoretically has unlimited capacity to create money and credit supply. Therefore, the Central Bank is fully capable of regulating and controlling the amount of money in circulation required for economic operation. The practice of the monetary policy of the central banks of the western countries after the war shows that the main way to stimulate economic growth and expand employment is to reduce interest rates and increase the money supply. This expansionary monetary policy tends to lead to inflation; The monetarist monetary policy with anti inflation as its main goal is to raise interest rates and control the money supply as its main means
Chapter 9: Contemporary World Economy and Policy Model
1、 The deflation risk facing the world economy is increasing
Since the 1970s, many countries and regions in the world have witnessed a sustained and significant decline in the inflation rate, and the prices of all kinds of products except oil have declined to varying degrees. According to the statistics of the World Bank, the world inflation rate, calculated by the GDP deflator, was 9.0% in the 1970s, dropped to 5.8% and 3.7% in the 1980s and 1990s, and further dropped to 2.3% and 1.7% in 2001 and 2002. Among them, the inflation rates of industrialized countries such as the United States, Europe and Japan were 8.7%, 4.6% and 2.0% respectively in the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s, and further dropped to 1.5% and 1.1% in 2001 and 2002; The inflation rate of Asian emerging industrial economies was 9.5%, 4.7% and 2.4% respectively in the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s, and even dropped to - 2.0% and - 1.2% in 2001 and 2002; The inflation rate of other countries and regions shows an obvious downward trend on the whole. Even if calculated according to the consumer price index, the inflation rate of the above countries and regions showed a similar downward trend in the same period.
Seen from the situation in the past two years, against the background of the low growth and weak recovery of the world economy, the decline in the prices of all kinds of commodities in the world has a further trend, especially the prices of industrial manufactured goods and information electronic products have generally fallen sharply, which seriously restricts the recovery of the world economy. The consumer price index of the United States rose by only 1.0% in 2001, the lowest level since the 1960s. In 2002, the prices of all kinds of commodities in the United States continued to decline, among which the investment price of enterprise equipment fell by 1.0%, the price of durable consumer goods such as automobiles and household appliances fell by 2.4%, the price of clothing products fell by 2.2%, and the price of personal computers fell by 20.9%. Moreover, the downward trend of prices has also spread from manufacturing to the advantageous service industry in the United States, with hotel prices falling by 2.1%, air ticket prices falling by 3.8%, and the price index of the telephone service industry falling by 4.0%. Deflation is becoming a new challenge for the US economy. The deflation trend in Japan is more severe. The consumer price index has fallen for four consecutive years since 1999, with the decline rates of - 0.3%, - 0.8%, - 0.7% and - 1.0% respectively. In the meantime, although Japan has taken measures aimed at introducing inflation, such as implementing the zero interest rate policy, inducing the depreciation of the yen and increasing the money supply, the deflation trend has not shown any signs of easing up so far. Although the inflation rate in the euro area is slightly higher than the upper limit of 2% set by the European Central Bank due to the rise in energy and food prices, many commodity and service prices face downward pressure due to insufficient demand. The inflation rate of Asian newly industrialized economies calculated by the consumer price index also dropped below 2%, which was only 1.1%, 1.9% and 1.1% in 2000-2002, and there has been no sign of inflation so far. At present, only Russia and other CIS countries, as well as Turkey and Argentina and other Latin American countries with financial turmoil, have inflation rates in excess of double digits, but even these countries and regions have tended to stabilize and decline.
It can be seen from the above that although the global price index shows an obvious continuous downward trend, the general price level still maintains a certain increase, indicating that there has not been global deflation in the strict sense yet. Among the major countries and regions in the world, only Japan's price level has declined in the past two or three years, while the price level in the United States, Europe, East Asia and other regions is still rising moderately. However, as the global inflation rate has continued to fall to a very low level of less than 2%, the prices of many products and services have generally declined recently, and the inflation rate of major countries and regions has been at the lowest level in the post-war history, and there are almost no obvious signs of inflation, the world economy is indeed facing an increasing risk of deflation, The possibility of global deflation is increasing.
2、 Main reasons for the global deflation trend
The reasons for the continuous decline of price levels and even deflation in different countries and regions are different. From a global perspective, the following factors are the main reasons for the global deflation trend.
First of all, the information technology revolution has greatly promoted the industrial technological progress and the improvement of labor productivity. While reducing production costs and increasing output supply, it will inevitably lead to the continuous decline of the relative price of products. Since the 1990s, the high-tech industry led by the information technology industry has developed rapidly, and its proportion in the industrial composition of countries around the world has been rising. Because high-tech industries such as information technology have the characteristics of endless technological innovation and rapid product upgrading, they constantly improve the technical content and quality while constantly reducing product prices. At the same time, information technology has also rapidly spread to other industries. Due to the extensive use of information technology in the traditional manufacturing industry, the R&D and manufacturing capacity and level of its products have been continuously improved, making manufacturers continuously reduce production costs and product prices. After the adoption of information, network and modern communication technology, the service industry can provide more personalized services at a relatively low cost than before, and the service price also shows a downward trend.
Secondly, in the era of economic globalization, new changes have taken place in the international industrial division and transfer mode, and the global competition is becoming increasingly fierce. The expansion of production capacity and the intensification of market competition make it difficult for the prices of many products to rise. In order to adapt to the new situation of increasing international competition in the era of economic globalization, while enterprises in developed countries continue to transfer traditional industries to developing countries to make room for the development of new economies, they also transfer many different production and manufacturing links of high-tech products to developing countries with lower labor costs as far as possible according to the principle of lowest cost. It focuses on technology development, brand management and marketing network construction, and achieves the goal of reducing production costs and improving profitability by optimizing resource allocation globally. In order to adapt to the new changes in international industrial division and transfer mode, developing countries should give full play to the advantages of low labor production costs to introduce large amounts of investment from transnational corporations, constantly improve the level of processing and manufacturing technology and expand production capacity, and strive to join the production and marketing network of transnational corporations to share some benefits. The result is that the overcapacity of many products in the world and the further intensification of international market competition will eventually lead to the decline of product prices.
Thirdly, the imbalance of world economic development has led to the widening of the global gap between rich and poor, exacerbated the contradiction of insufficient aggregate demand, and is an important reason for the global deflation trend. In the process of economic globalization, developed countries and developing countries are in different positions and share different interests. Multinational companies in developed countries control the core technology, brand and marketing network of products, so they can obtain most of the profits from production and sales of products, while the majority of developing countries can only earn a small amount of product processing fees. Not only that, when multinational companies transfer manufacturing processes to developing countries or reduce production costs by outsourcing production, they also intensify the competition for domestic ordinary jobs, thus lowering the wage level of ordinary labor. The result is that it has restricted the improvement of the purchasing power of ordinary workers in developing and developed countries, making the contradiction of insufficient global effective demand increasingly acute, and the general price level has slowed down, resulting in the formation of global deflationary pressure.
Finally, many countries have long pursued macroeconomic policies with anti inflation as the primary goal, which has effectively reduced the global inflation rate, but also to a large extent caused the current global general price level to decline. In the 1970s and 1980s, most of the major developed countries in the United States and Europe experienced serious inflation or even stagflation, so that macroeconomic policies in the 1990s generally focused on curbing and preventing inflation. During the eight years of the Clinton administration, the U.S. fiscal budget policy has always been aimed at reducing government spending, reducing budget deficits and ultimately achieving fiscal surpluses; The Federal Reserve's monetary policy also focuses on preventing economic overheating and preventing inflation from resurgence. As long as there is a sign of economic overheating that may cause inflation, preventive measures will be taken to raise interest rates. In the nearly 10 years since the transition to a single currency, the EU has set strict standards for economic convergence, requiring member countries to implement stability oriented macroeconomic policies and strive to achieve sustained economic growth with low inflation or even without inflation.
Among them, the fiscal policy focuses on reducing government spending and reducing the fiscal deficit, ultimately reducing the fiscal deficit to less than 3% of GDP, and striving to achieve budget balance and a slight surplus in the medium term; Monetary policy also focuses on strictly controlling the money supply and reducing the inflation rate to promote the decline and convergence of inflation rates among member countries; The wage policy requires that nominal wage growth should not lead to inflation, and that real wage growth should not exceed the increase in labor productivity. After the establishment of the European Central Bank, the monetary policy with price stability as the primary goal was implemented in the euro area, which stipulated that the inflation rate in the euro area should not exceed the upper limit of 2%, and the growth of the broad money supply should be kept at about 45%.
The anti inflation macroeconomic policies implemented by the developed countries in the United States and Europe have also had a demonstration effect on other countries. Faced with serious inflation in the process of economic transition, Russia and other CIS countries, as well as Central and Eastern European countries, have also mostly adopted macroeconomic policies that significantly reduce government spending, reduce the money supply and raise interest rates. When the International Monetary Fund provides aid loans to countries in East Asia and Latin America suffering from financial crisis, it also requires these countries to adopt similar macroeconomic policies. The macroeconomic policy of reducing inflation to promote stable economic growth prevailing in the 1990s has had an important impact on the formation of the current global deflation trend.
3、 The world economy will not fall into the deflation trap in the foreseeable future
From the above main factors leading to the global deflation trend and the current trend of the world economy, there are many reasons for the continuous decline of the current global price level, but none of them will necessarily lead to global deflation in a strict sense. The world economy is unlikely to decline in the foreseeable future, and will not fall into the deflation trap.
First, the decline in product prices based on the decline in production costs, caused by structural factors such as technological progress, increased labor productivity, changes in enterprise production and marketing methods, and intensified market competition in the era of economic globalization, will not necessarily lead to deflation and hinder world economic growth, but will also be of positive significance, It is an inevitable manifestation of the continuous progress of the mode of production in human society. Historically, most developed countries have experienced a long-term decline in price levels due to technological progress, higher labor productivity and lower production costs, but this has not hindered sustained economic growth. For example, in the process of industrialization, the price level of major Western European countries continued to decline for 21 years from 1874-1895, but their economies continued to grow. The price level in the United States also continued to decline from 1917 to 1922, which also did not hinder its economic growth. From the current situation, although the increase in labor productivity and the intensification of market competition brought about by the information technology revolution and economic globalization have led to a more obvious downward trend in production costs and price levels, it has not affected the growth of the world economy, nor is it the fundamental cause of economic recession or deflation in individual countries and regions. The deflation in Japan is largely caused by the fact that after the bubble economy burst, the traditional economic system, economic structure and economic development model did not adapt to the new situation, resulting in a long-term downturn in domestic demand, as well as the sharp increase of non-performing creditor's rights in the financial system, credit contraction and other reasons. The recession of the U.S. economy is related to the bursting of the new economic bubble, excessive investment in the information technology industry, terrorist attacks and other factors. The economic recession in East Asia and Latin America in recent years is mainly caused by the unsound financial system and financial market turbulence.
Secondly, the slowdown of world economic growth and the decline of global price level caused by insufficient effective demand and overcapacity of some industries have certain periodicity, which will not necessarily evolve into global deflation, and can be changed through the adjustment of macroeconomic policies and industrial structure of various countries. The imbalance between total demand and total supply caused by insufficient effective demand and overproduction is the direct reason for the decline of general price level and economic recession. If the laissez faire policy is adopted without intervention, the spontaneous adjustment of the market mechanism may eventually lead to economic recession or deflation. However, no matter in the contemporary developed countries or developing countries, the government has a strong macro-economic control capacity and means, and various forms of macroeconomic policy coordination mechanisms have emerged internationally. Therefore, in the face of insufficient effective demand and overproduction that may lead to economic recession or deflation, governments of all countries tend to correspondingly adopt various forms of expansionary fiscal and monetary policies to stimulate and expand demand, so as to prevent the economy from falling into recession or deflation due to insufficient effective demand. At the industrial level, economic globalization has also created conditions for enterprises to accelerate the elimination of excess production capacity and adjust the industrial structure and layout, and to a certain extent, it has alleviated the possible lasting adverse impact of excess production capacity on economic growth.
In fact, in recent years, most governments and enterprises around the world have taken similar active measures to prevent and mitigate possible economic recession or deflation. For example, after the Bush administration took office, in the face of the decline in the growth rate of the U.S. economy and the possibility of sliding into a cyclical recession, it adopted a series of fiscal policies characterized by large-scale tax cuts and increased government spending to deal with the economic downturn. After recognizing that the main threat to the economy is insufficient demand, the Federal Reserve also did not hesitate to significantly reduce interest rates for 12 consecutive times to stimulate economic growth, It has played a huge role in slowing down the recession of the US economy and promoting the rapid recovery of the economy. After the Asian financial crisis, most East Asian countries adopted macroeconomic policies focusing on expanding domestic demand, which to some extent reduced the dependence of economic growth on external demand and enhanced the autonomy of economic growth. At the same time, countries around the world have also accelerated the pace of industrial restructuring, and cultivated new economic growth points by eliminating and reducing backward excess production capacity and constantly developing emerging industries. These macro-economic control and industrial structure adjustment measures have effectively prevented the world economy from sliding further into recession or deflation, and made the world economy continue to maintain a certain growth.
Thirdly, the modern monetary system is based on the non convertible paper money, and the central bank theoretically has unlimited capacity to create money and credit supply. Therefore, the Central Bank is fully capable of regulating and controlling the amount of money in circulation required for economic operation. The practice of the monetary policy of the central banks of the western countries after the war shows that the main way to stimulate economic growth and expand employment is to reduce interest rates and increase the money supply. This expansionary monetary policy tends to lead to inflation; The monetarist monetary policy with anti inflation as its main goal is to raise interest rates and control the money supply as its main means
