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Production| NetEase Finance School of Economics and Management of Tsinghua University
Editor | Cui Yixin Editor in Chief | Yang Zeyu
Economic Management Interview is a high-end financial interview program jointly produced by NetEase Financial Think Tank and the School of Economics and Management of Tsinghua University. This program brings together well-known scholars in the field of economic management to discuss the future development of China's economic management, provide advice and suggestions for China's economic development, add vitality to economic research, and provide value coordinates for entrepreneurs.
NO.03 Dialogue with Dean of School of Economics and Management of Tsinghua University Bai Chongen What are the key issues of China's economy in 2024?
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Some people have an overly narrow understanding of innovation. Don't limit innovation too much. We need to create a relaxed environment, not to blame the enterprise. Excessive demands on enterprises to solve the "choke" problem are not conducive to the transformation of China's new and old drivers. We can't ask everyone to do the same kind of innovation. For example, if everyone tries to solve the "neck jam" problem, the innovation that explores the future will be squeezed out.
The following are the highlights of the dialogue:
1、 Understand the conversion of new and old kinetic energy
The most important thing is to correct the understanding of innovation
Some people have an overly narrow understanding of innovation. Don't limit innovation too much. We need to create a relaxed environment, not to blame the enterprise. Excessive demands on enterprises to solve the "choke" problem are not conducive to the transformation of China's new and old drivers.
In economics, the only sustainable driving force for economic growth is innovation. Innovation includes innovation in science and technology as well as innovation in business model, both of which are indispensable.
There are many kinds of innovations in science and technology. One is used to solve the "neck jam" problem: we know what the problem is, so we are targeted to solve it; Another is "exploring the unknown": we generally do not know what to innovate, but the final results meet the needs that were not met in the past. There needs to be a good balance between the two.
In the future, we hope to have more innovations from 0 to 1. At the same time, we should give full play to our advantages of innovation from 1 to N, such as our large market and abundant human resources. These are our advantages of innovation from 1 to N.
It needs to be emphasized that, We can't ask everyone to do the same kind of innovation, for example, everyone should solve the "neck jam" problem, otherwise the innovation that explores the future will be squeezed out.
In addition, the innovation of enterprise business model has enabled consumers to obtain more appropriate products and services, which also contributes to economic growth; The taxes paid by these enterprises ensure our innovation ability in other aspects.
Therefore, do not judge people severely according to their own standards. We should encourage people to give full play to their own advantages, innovate in all aspects, and let the market survive the fittest. My understanding of the conversion of new and old kinetic energy is a very important aspect.
2、 "Stand before break"
It cannot be simply interpreted as government It's everything
We can't simply understand "stand before break" as government Everything is decided. It is necessary to "establish first and then destroy", otherwise, if there is no "establishment" after "destruction", there will be no supply. We should create good conditions to "establish" and "break" on the basis of "establish".
For example, in the field of green transformation, "establishment" is not only to build solar power stations, wind power stations, etc., but also to transform the power grid to make it more intelligent and strong, so that the price mechanism can better encourage behaviors conducive to green transformation; It also includes demand side responses, such as allowing people to use more electricity when there is more green power generation, and less electricity at other times. Therefore, "establish before break" is an important principle, but we still hope that the market can play a greater role. Because there are too many parties to coordinate, it may not be possible to do a good job completely by administrative means.
3、 China's economy in 2024
Real estate is one of the larger variables
In 2024, we will still face great challenges. The main reason is the transformation of the economic structure, in which the changes in the real estate market have a great impact on economic growth. In the future, it will be an important industry, and we will also provide necessary conditions for its development, but the dependence on it to drive economic growth may become smaller.
Real estate is probably the biggest variable. In the first two years, the growth rate of investment in real estate development nationwide was about - 9%. Whether it can reach the bottom in 2024 is a key indicator. We don't expect real estate to grow as fast as it used to, but we hope The existing stock can be digested faster, Let this industry not bring us financial risks, and continue to play a role in economic growth.
To be specific, some young people and new citizens are under great pressure to buy houses. Can we provide them with some policy support? Can the government buy a batch of houses from the market stock? As a result, the commercial housing originally built by developers has been purchased by the government and turned into policy guarantee housing.
Of course, where the government's financial resources come from is another question. This requires a certain balance. If the government does not do this, and finally if the financial system goes wrong finance Come to the bottom.
4、 Local debt
Targeted classification solution
At present, many local governments are under great financial pressure. Relatively speaking, the central government has relatively strong financial resources. The central debt accounts for gross domestic product The proportion is about 22%, which is not a very high proportion.
Therefore, some people say that the central government should help local governments reduce their debt pressure, and local governments can repay the debts owed to enterprises after restoring their financial capacity, which is a positive impact; However, some people worry about the so-called moral hazard, or the financial dependence of local governments on the central government - the central government will tell them what to do.
In my opinion, local government debt pressure should be classified into three categories.
One is structural debt. This kind of local debt is caused by institutional problems, such as tax policy. There are rules for local governments to do things, especially for some rigid operation guarantee, such as the number of people financially supported. If local governments follow the rules to do things, but there is a deficit, this is structural debt.
Therefore, the local government cannot take all the responsibilities. If it owes a lot of debt, it cannot operate sustainably. In this regard, we should consider increasing some new revenues, reducing some expenditures, and Make better use of local assets, To fill this imbalance.
Specifically, increasing income depends on the growth of GDP; In addition, are there any places where local governments should not spend money? In particular, local governments complain about many things. For example, sometimes the central government issues policies, and the local government has to pay for them, which brings about additional expenditure. Does this part of expenditure need to be controlled?
The second kind of debt is caused by the discretion of local governments. Local governments have discretion in many matters, such as investment in traditional infrastructure. The low rate of return on investment has caused some debt pressure. Therefore, local governments should bear a certain degree of pressure when investing, so as to put an end to the government's disorderly investment behavior.
If we assess the local government, we will not only see how much its GDP growth is in that year, but also how much its tax revenue is in that year, It depends on its current and future debts, This may lead to some changes.
In addition, when local governments invest in infrastructure, they should also evaluate its effectiveness. If it is a fee based facility investment, we can require that a considerable part of the construction cost comes from the fee based income. For example, if there is no traffic on the toll road, it will not be charged. In this case, the local government will be forced to make a more scientific and accurate assessment before investing in infrastructure, so the baton of local government expenditure should be improved.
The third type of debt is the financial pressure that is difficult to predict and control, such as the extraordinary debt of local governments caused by accidents. This is also an urgent problem to be solved. The fiscal deficit caused by this unexpected event is not small in magnitude. It is suggested that the central government should pay for it. Because of the contingency and uncontrollability of this kind of debt, the central government should pay for it without moral hazard. The central debt will increase, but the growth rate of GDP will also accelerate.
When we consider central government debt, we should not only look at static figures, but also observe it dynamically. If the central government issues more debt, resulting in rapid economic growth, our focus should be on the proportion of debt in GDP. The numerator has increased. If the denominator has increased more, then the debt ratio has not increased, and the debt risk will not be great. We should use this thinking to consider problems.
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