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Tan Yaling (Independent of China Foreign Exchange Investment Research Institute economist ）
60s quick reading:
1、 U.S.A finance The proportion of profits of institutions in the whole society is very low, and the interest rate increase of the Federal Reserve will not have a direct impact on enterprises. Thus Lenovo, the United States small and medium-sized enterprises Is the turmoil the root cause of the US economic recession? This may not be the case, but the devaluation of the US dollar or its goals and aspirations may be taken into account.
2. USD currency The characteristics of the problem and the link with globalization are the key points. The sphere of influence of the US dollar is a unique currency overseas. Any other currency - no matter the basket currency of developed countries or the currency of all countries that are not convertible, the monetary subject focuses on the domestic currency, which is totally different from the US dollar.
3. There are American advantages and privileges in the American problem. The key is to deal with the American problem for a long time. The United States is trying to solve the problem with its advantages. This is the American mode of analysis and comparison and the logical context, rather than just talking about and treating general countries according to the script. From this, we can see the crucial moment of the American problem.
Body:
Recently, the topic about the United States is still the focus, and the market is full of controversy and rapid adjustment of related prices. After all, the focus and correlation of American factors is the global focus and all core reference factors. However, there seems to be obvious constraints guiding the analysis and comparison of the expected methods, positions and prospects of American problems. Emotionalism is not a simple conclusion of short-term public opinion tossing and turning. At this moment, the market needs more professional and thorough understanding and insight familiar with reality. In particular, the United States is superior in all aspects. Its economy is huge and developed, and its ability and level of market dominance are extremely different. Even the dominant force of market public opinion is the influence and reality of American factors that cannot be ignored.
On the one hand, the intersection of the US economic cycle and the monetary cycle has increased sensitivity to sensationalize the US issues. The new economic cycle of the United States has not taken shape or produced self-discipline. At present, the lack of exploratory laws and regulations is the key period for the economic problems of the United States.
In 2000, along with the rise of American technology stocks, and then in 2008, Wall Street experienced the associated storm of financial derivatives. So far, the strong and prosperous cycle of the U.S. economy has significantly lengthened the traditional economic law. The continuity of appreciation is beyond the rhythm and law of the traditional economic cycle. The U.S. economic recession is mainly defined by the traditional logic, And then the old and new economies are intertwined, which is the reality and difficult to solve of American economic problems. At a time when there is no new definition of theory and new discovery of laws in the market, sensationalism and taking advantage of problems in the American economic fluctuations are the key observations of its problems.
After all, it is normal for a country's economy to be mixed, but the U.S. economy is often dominated by too many negative factors. On the contrary, the advantages and strength of the U.S. economy are rarely measured and shown. This is the direction of the U.S. economic and cultural decisions, and then the market judges that the U.S. economic parameters have the guiding or causal nature of attention. If the U.S. economy is comprehensively evaluated, the unique advantages of the U.S. economy are unique, which is also the key point for analysis and comparison.
1. Inadequate export and import growth are the characteristics of economic logic. The large amount of basic external demand is the nature of economic structure. Trade deficit does not represent an economic problem in the United States. Instead, it is the path and way of dollar power and prestige controlled by market monopoly and mechanism.
2. Investment orientation and investment return are the guarantee for economic consolidation. The borrowing mode and circulation mechanism are the embodiment of the radiation of the US dollar. The local support of national debt is the most important force for the US policy.
3. The cycle of income stability and policy input has never been more stable. The combination of high inflation and strong consumption is a new economic initiative, and it is also the special problem of the current American economy.
The intersection of the stability of the American business cycle and the exploration of laws is a special period of the American problem. The new economy is bound to face the structure and logic of the new monetary policy, and the monetary cycle is being explored following the characteristics of the new economic cycle, The unwarranted suspicious panic is the source and background of the endless debate on raising and lowering monetary interest rates. The characteristics of the dollar currency issue and the link with globalization are the key points. The dollar's sphere of influence is a unique currency overseas, and any other currency - regardless of the basket currency of developed countries or the currency of all countries that are not convertible currencies. The currency subject focuses on the domestic currency, which is a currency state completely different from the U.S. dollar.
Therefore, the U.S. dollar economic structure is also the logic and framework of overseas orientation. Whether it is Apple's industrial economy or the investment banking model of financial wealth, the overseas product orientation and the overseas majority of cash flow or yield are enough to show that the U.S. dollar qualification is forward-looking, which is that the focus of U.S. dollar allocation is unique overseas. This also determines the basic international strategy of dollar depreciation, not the implementation of the strong dollar policy, but the trend of the dollar rather than the structure, share, scale and mechanism. Because the reason why the US dollar has a strong sphere of influence is that it is a fact and trend that is difficult to change at present and in the future that it accounts for overseas discourse power, pricing power, leading power and influence.
On the other hand, the U.S. structural transformation market and enterprises focus on the volatility in the transition period as the core of economic sustainability. At present, the market expects that the financial reports of American listed companies in the first quarter of 2023, which is about to begin in the United States, will be pessimistic. Market sentiment speculation is the focus of volatility but panic. After all, the performance of American enterprises is the basis and background of the prosperity of the American economy. The overall environment of the prosperity of the American economy is dominated by the performance of American enterprises exceeding the expected profits for three consecutive years. This is the key to the ambiguity of the American problem, which is different from the global market oriented adverse situation. Compared with the U.S., the focus is not on the current global market. The structural transformation of the U.S. new economic cycle is from the market to enterprises. Enterprise competitiveness is the feature of the new economic structure and the core of the sustainable U.S. economy.
The focus on American issues is still on the market, which is the key point of not understanding the United States at present. After all, the sharp rise and fall of American stocks, the sharp rise and fall of oil, the sharp rise and fall of gold, and the staggered rise and fall of exchange rate are all the key points or speculation topics of the fermentation of American issues. However, in fact, the benefit of American enterprises is the difference of its new economic transformation. The focus of enterprise rescue, support and investment is the focus of the U.S. government, especially the Federal Reserve's policy in 2020, which will lead to the foundation and logic of today's American economic prosperity.
1. The rise and stability of the U.S. market is better than that of S&P, which is the focus of the U.S. new economic structure and traditional economic transformation, that is, the influence and value of large U.S. enterprises are the core of the U.S. economy, and SMEs, as the auxiliary and cooperative mechanism of large enterprises, are the key to the landing and consolidation of U.S. new economic innovation, These include the new structure and new initiatives of Tesla's new automobile industry.
Second, the current market focuses on the traditional logical reasoning of market index allocation of the U.S. economic recession, which seriously ignores the conversion and improvement characteristics of enterprise competitiveness. The market simply uses the upside down of long-term and short-term treasury bond yields to reveal the panic of economic recession, and the actual economic downturn in the new economic cycle will not have bad consequences because of interest rates.
After all, the reversal of capital flow caused by the interest rate docking with the market in the traditional period will be a disaster for enterprises and the economy. But today, the interest rate docking with enterprises does not have a direct connection, especially the characteristics of direct financing in the United States, where the proportion of direct financing is close to 90%, is the advantageous structure and particularity of the United States financial institutions with limited role and impact.
Financial institutions in the United States account for a very low proportion of profits in the whole society, and the increase of interest rates by the Federal Reserve will not have a direct impact on enterprises. Thus, we associate, Is the current disturbance of American small and medium-sized enterprises the root cause of the American economic recession? This may not be the case, but the devaluation of the US dollar or its goals and aspirations may be taken into account.
Based on the above analysis and the U.S. corporate structure framework, the events of Bank of America will not directly affect the corporate volatility, including the pessimism of the upcoming U.S. listing financial report mentioned above, which seems to have misunderstanding or improper understanding, or it is just the U.S. speculative adjustment and wise policy to respond.
The problems of the United States are the focus of the world, but dealing with themselves is an opportunity or adjustment space. The move to the US dollar is to help the United States explore the market, or even assist in targeted benchmarking or attack tactics. The market needs to focus on the planned strategic cycle of the United States, rather than short-term index volatility.
In particular, at present, the interest rate increase of the Federal Reserve is a planning strategy rather than a short-term response, which is the firm and hawkish determination parameter of the Federal Reserve's interest rate increase. There are American advantages and privileges in the American problem. The key is to deal with the American problem for a long time. The United States is trying to solve the problem with its advantages. This is the American mode of analysis and comparison and the logical context, rather than the same discussion and treatment as general countries according to the script. From this, we can see the crucial moment of the American problem.
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