French people go to the polling place to vote
The era of Makron is over.
This is a sigh that crossed my mind at 7:50 on Sunday evening. Sunday is the first round of voting in the French National Assembly election. As a media, we can receive the prediction of the election results made by the polling agency in advance. According to the first round of prediction issued by Ipsos, the "together" alliance of French President Makron only obtained 20.3% of the votes, far behind the far right National Alliance, which obtained 34% of the votes, and the left wing New People's Front, which obtained 28.1% of the votes.
This poor result means that after the second round of elections next Sunday, Makron's party will only get 70 to 100 parliamentary seats. Compared with the 250 seats before the dissolution of the parliament, it is more than halving. It is the first time in nearly three decades that the ruling party has made such bad achievements. This also means that the intermediate force created by Makron in 2017 has officially become the "past tense".
This was also achieved under the highest first round voting rate in nearly 30 years - according to the data of the French Ministry of Interior, 67.35% of the voters cast their votes, which is the highest voting rate since 1997. It can be said that the French people collectively voted against Makron. French politics has returned to the political ecology of the left and right fighting each other in the past.
However, this time the rightists have become the national alliance of the extreme right, and the voice of the extreme left among the leftists has also risen sharply. The French political arena has become more and more extreme under the rule of Makron for seven years, and finally demonstrated its achievements in this parliamentary election.
On June 30 local time, Ma Kelong was photographed appearing on the streets of Letukai in northern France
The National League of the far right is expected to make great strides in the second round of elections, jumping from the existing 88 seats to 230 to 280 seats, becoming the largest force. The left wing New People's Front is expected to win 125 to 165 seats. According to this prediction, no party will obtain an absolute majority of 289 seats in the parliament, and France will elect a suspended parliament. Who will be the prime minister is unknown.
However, on the last night of June, one thing is certain - regardless of the outcome of the second round of elections and whether the extreme right is finally in power, the French political arena has officially entered the "post Makron era". The era of Makron is over.
The collapse of Makron's camp
From 250 seats to 70 to 100 seats, and from the largest force in the parliament to the third - Makron's political gamble was a complete failure. Since Makron unexpectedly announced the dissolution of Parliament on June 9, almost the whole of France has been trying to understand why he did so. Few people, including Makron's closest political allies, can understand the significance of his behavior.
The few people left behind Ma Kelong to support his decision also gradually shifted their camp during the next election campaign in June. On the evening of June 9, the French presidential palace found an adviser who gave a briefing to journalists including the author. Since 2017, he has followed Ma Kelong, which can be said to be one of his oldest supporters. At the briefing, the consultant also said unequivocally that Makron was confident of winning and the camp would go all out. Just a week after that, the author read an exclusive report in Le Monde, a famous French newspaper, saying that the consultant was going to be fired because Makron thought he was too "defeatist".
In fact, at the last moment of the election, few people around Makron thought he could win. Those members of the Makron camp who lost their jobs because of the dissolution of the parliament and were almost determined to lose the election were naturally indignant. Now even those who had supported him admit that the election has been fought like this, ranking third in the polls all the time, and it is only a daydream to think about winning the election.
But Ma Kelong didn't think so. Until Sunday morning when he went to the polling station to vote, he still smiled at the cameras and said that he would never regret the decision to dissolve the parliament. However, after the results on Sunday came out, Makron no longer came out to speak in such a hurry as he did on June 9. Under the questioning of the author, the Presidential Palace issued a brief statement:
"The high turnout in the first round of legislative elections proves the importance of this vote for all our compatriots and their desire to clarify the political situation. Their democratic choice also makes us have to shoulder our obligations: in the face of the National League, now is the time to unite all democratic and republican forces extensively and explicitly in the second round of elections."
As of press time, these short words are also Ma Kelong's only response to the election result.
This president, who has always been strong and has always loved cameras, let the author feel his fragile and lonely side for the first time at this moment.
The National League of the far right and its spiritual leader Malina Le Pen
The far right is only one step away from power
Unlike Makron, the far right National League and its spiritual leader, Marina Le Pen, can be said to be in high spirits. Both 34% of the first round votes and 230 to 280 expected votes are the best results in the history of the National League Party. If the National League can achieve the expected maximum of 280 seats, it is only 9 seats away from the absolute majority. As long as several right-wing members are dug out, the National League will be in power historically and become the first extreme right-wing government in France after World War II.
In fact, this is what everyone expected before the election. This can also be seen from the arrangement of the National League on Sunday night. They specially arranged two activities. One was a celebration banquet hosted by Le Pen in northern France. One was a press conference held by Jordang Baldera, head of the National League Party, which was specially open to journalists in Paris. With such publicity, we can see that he is confident of the results on Sunday. The fact is also true.
In the face of such a historic result, Le Pen was naturally excited.
"Democracy has spoken, the French people have pushed the National League and its allies to the first place, and almost wiped out the power of Makron!" Le Pen said to the cheering supporters at his campaign headquarters. She was also re elected successfully in the 11th constituency of Calais Strait Province. He was directly elected with an absolute advantage of more than half of the votes in the first round.
Even so, she did not forget to encourage her supporters to make persistent efforts in the second round of voting next Sunday to put the National League on the throne of the ruling party.
Baldera, her carefully selected successor, expressed the same view. At the press conference held in Paris, he shouted to all supporters that the second round of voting next Sunday would be "one of the most decisive votes in the history of the Fifth Republic".
At the same time, the ability of the National League to control the declining industrial areas in the north of France and the conservative Catholic areas in the south was further strengthened in this election. In Northern Province and Calais Strait Province, several candidates of the National League won the first round by overwhelming majority of votes. In the south, the National League leads almost all the constituencies along the Mediterranean coast, which span seven provinces.
The most extreme example is the 20th constituency of Northern Province. This constituency has a long tradition on the left. It has been firmly controlled by the French Communist Party since 1968. The current General Secretary of the French Communist Party is the member of the constituency. However, he was defeated in the first round of voting by a political expert sent by the National League on Sunday, which was shocking.
The left wing came back from the dead
If we all know that the far right will perform well in this election, the left-wing coalition is the unexpected dark horse in this parliamentary election. First of all, it is not easy for the political parties of the left wing to reach an agreement in just a few days. Secondly, the left-wing voter mobilization this time can be said to be successful.
This is most obvious in big cities, especially Paris and its suburbs. The voting rate in Paris nearly doubled compared with 2022, reaching 70% or even 75% in all constituencies. Most of them are left-wing voters inspired by the united left-wing forces. In the 18 constituencies of Paris, the councillors of 10 constituencies obtained more than half of the votes in the first round of voting and were directly elected. All of these 10 people are from the left-wing coalition. Among them, in the 7th constituency of Paris, the Deputy Mayor of Paris of the Socialist Party defeated the former Minister of Transport of the Makron camp.
Seine Saint Denis, a province on the outskirts of Paris, has long been known for its low voting rate because of its large immigrant population, mainly low-income people. In almost all major elections, this province has the lowest voting rate in France. However, even in such a province, the voting rate in this poll also reached 50%, and some electoral districts even reached more than 60%. In all the 12 constituencies in the province, the left-wing alliance is in the lead by absolute advantage. In the urban and suburban areas of other major cities in France, the leftist alliance also performed well. This is also true in Brittany, a region with a strong socialist tradition.
Although 28.1% of the votes and 125 to 165 expected votes are not as impressive as the achievements of the far right, the left has kept its position as the second largest force in the parliament, which can be regarded as a victory in the current French political ecology.
Because in 2017, as a member of the former Socialist Party government, Ma Kelong mainly dug the corner of the left at the beginning of his administration, which made the left once to the point of bubble.
Although the achievements of the present are not as good as those of the past, at the moment of the collapse of Makron's camp, the left can be said to have successfully recovered to a relatively healthy position, bringing the dead back to life. It also laid the foundation for the next attack on the extreme right wing.
Late Sunday night, the author passed the Republic Square on his way home, and happened to see the leftist supporters gathering. People shouted slogans, sang revolutionary songs and vowed to block the extreme right from power. It is quite touching.
Author: Xu Xiaofei, graduated from Columbia University School of Journalism, now living in Paris
