2024 Guangxi pension adjustment plan is released, 3100 yuan can be increased by 150 yuan per month?

The working day in June has ended. As expected, the specific pension plans of the provinces have not yet been announced.

It is estimated that some retired seniors are worried about this. How much can the pension be increased this year?

Today we are going to make a simple prediction on the adjustment of Guangxi pension in 2024, but this prediction is only based on the adjustment plan of previous years, which does not represent the real situation, and is only for reference.

The pension adjustment plans of each province each year are basically composed of quota adjustment+linkage adjustment+tilt adjustment, but from the actual situation of each province in recent years, the adjustment of each part in different years is different, and the focus is also different.

1. Analysis of quota adjustment trend.

From 2021 to 2023, the quota adjustment of pension adjustment in Guangxi will be 44 yuan, 33 yuan and 29.2 yuan respectively, showing a downward trend as a whole, with a decrease of 4.3%, 25% and 11.5% respectively.

The decrease trend of this quota adjustment is basically the same as that of the overall pension adjustment, which is decreasing year by year. According to this trend, the adjustment of Guangxi's pension adjustment quota in 2024 is likely to fall below 28 yuan, probably between 25 yuan and 28 yuan.

2. Adjust the trend analysis in proportion.

The proportional adjustment is directly related to everyone's pension. The larger the adjustment proportion is, the more the amount can be increased, and vice versa.

From 2021 to 2023, the proportion of linkage adjustment in Guangxi is on the rise, with 1.2%, 1.8% and 2.24% respectively in the past three years. This adjustment ratio is just the opposite of the overall pension adjustment. Although the overall pension adjustment ratio has declined in the past few years, the linkage ratio in Guangxi has increased year by year.

However, considering that the overall pension adjustment proportion this year is only 3%, it is estimated that this proportion will not rise further, and may maintain the status quo, or even decline a little. The final adjustment proportion may be between 1.5% and 2%.

3. Trend analysis linked to payment years.

In the last three years, the pension adjustment scheme in Guangxi is basically the same as that of the payment period, which is to increase a certain amount every full year, but the increased amount shows a downward trend year by year.

From 2021 to 2023, the increased amount for each full year will be 1.8 yuan, 1 yuan and 0.6 yuan respectively; The decline in the last two years was 44.4% and 40% respectively. However, the increase of 0.6 yuan for every additional year is actually quite low. It is estimated that it will not continue to decline in 2024, and the corresponding increase amount for every full year of payment in 204 should be between 0.6 yuan and 1 yuan.

4. Analysis on the whole trend of the elderly economy.

From the perspective of the amount of tilt adjustment for the elderly in Guangxi in the last three years, the overall trend is downward.

For example, in the adjustment of senior age preference in 2021, 3 yuan will be added every month for people who have reached the age of 70, but it will decrease to 2 yuan in 2021 and 2022. However, starting from 2022, there will be an additional preference for people over 80 years of age, and they will receive one yuan more for each additional year of age.

Not surprisingly, the preferential adjustment plan for the elderly in Guangxi in 2024 should be the same as that in 2023. It should be 2 yuan per person per month for people over 70 years old, and 1 yuan per year for people over 80 years old.

The reason why we take the data of 3100 yuan is that the average pension level of Guangxi in 2023 is 3102 yuan, which is more universal.

Referring to the overall trend of Guangxi's pension in recent years, and combining with the overall pension adjustment ratio of 3% in 2024, it can be calculated that there should not be much change in the tilt adjustment of the elderly and the linkage of payment years, but the quota adjustment and the linkage ratio may be significantly reduced.

1. The final quota may be adjusted between 25 yuan and 28 yuan;

2. The linkage ratio may be between 1.5% and 1.8%, and the corresponding adjustment limit may be between 46.5 yuan and 55.8 yuan.

3. The approximate rate linked to the payment period is between 0.6 yuan and 1 yuan for each year of payment; With reference to the payment period of 15 to 40 years, the amount linked to the payment period should be between 9 yuan and 40 yuan.

4. As for the old age preference adjustment, it should not change much this year, which is equivalent to 2 yuan more for every additional year after reaching the age of 70, and 1 yuan more for every additional year after reaching the age of 80. The adjustment amount should be between 2 yuan and 50 yuan, depending on the actual age of each person.

To sum up the above four parts, the final increase should be between 82.5 yuan and 174 yuan based on the 3100 yuan pension.

This span is relatively large, because different retirees have different payment years and ages, so there will be a large gap in the final increase in the amount.

Of course, here we just make a simple guess based on the adjustment in the past few years. As for the final increase, the official documents shall prevail.

However, considering that the overall adjusted amount this year is only 3%, if the pension before the adjustment was only 3100 yuan, I estimate that most people can not increase the amount more than 150 yuan every month, and most people should be between 90 yuan and 150 yuan.