Recently, Indian media revealed that Indian Prime Minister Modi planned to visit Moscow and meet Putin in early July. It is not uncommon for Russia and India to hold summit meetings. India has maintained very close diplomatic relations with Russia since its independence after World War II. India is one of the largest buyers of Russian arms, and Russia also hopes to establish good relations with India.
When SCO was first established, there was no India. It was with the support of Russia that it decided to accept India as a full member. However, considering the timing of Modi's visit hyped by India and Russia, we can find that the situation is not quite right. Modi's visit is not so much a further push for the development of Russia India relations as a remedy for a series of previous acts of estrangement from Russia.
That's because of three things. First, the BRICS Foreign Ministers' Meeting was held, and almost all member countries sent ministers or even officials at higher levels to attend. Only India was a "special case". Su Jiesheng did not come at all, but only appointed a secretary of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs to perfunctory.
Putin, Modi
Russia is the rotating presidency of the BRICS organization this year, and also the host of the BRICS summits. Modi's doing this will undoubtedly make Putin look bad. Secondly, the Hindu Daily, an Indian media, broke a new story, saying that Modi may also be absent from the Shanghai Cooperation Summit held in Kazakhstan on July 3 this year because of the "journey conflict".
It is likely that both Chinese and Russian leaders will participate in this summit. If Modi fails to show up for an excuse, it is undoubtedly a "demolition" behavior. Third, shortly after Modi's re-election, American Security Assistant Sullivan visited India. It is strange that Russia has no grudge against the tense relationship between Russia and the United States.
Under such circumstances, Modi's emergency visit to Russia has a taste of mending the situation. However, it is not too late to mend, However, it is difficult for Russia India relations to "make up", because Modi and Putin have gone farther and farther on two different paths. Modi's choice for India is to get close to the United States and the West, play the "anti China card", and draw a clear line with the majority of third world countries.
G7 Summit
In June this year, Modi did a very abstract thing immediately after he just got the third term of office and completed the formation of the cabinet. India has always boasted that it is a third world power and a leader of the "Global South", but it has ignored the BRICS Foreign Ministers' Meeting and actively went to the G7 Summit hosted by the United States and the West to show off.
Putin's choice of road is in sharp contrast to Modi's. After winning the 2024 general election, Putin broke the previous practice of Russian leaders "looking westward" and preferentially selecting the CIS countries or Caucasus countries for their first visit. He flew directly to Beijing by one plane and issued a joint statement with China that was more than 10000 words long.
To sum up, it is a general trend that China and Russia are getting closer and closer, while India is on the road of anti China. Of course, in theory, the relationship between Russia and India and a third country should not affect the normal exchanges between the two countries. But objectively speaking, under the background of increasingly fierce international games, it is very difficult for Russia and India to talk about developing relations without third countries.
Putin's visit to China
On the one hand, the strategic interests of China and Russia are highly consistent in a short time, at least before the United States abandons the strategic plan of simultaneously suppressing China and Russia. Under such circumstances, India's dismantling of China's Taiwan is actually dismantling of Russia's Taiwan 。 And frankly, in Russia's situation, if Putin wants to appear in multilateral diplomatic occasions, it is basically difficult to leave China's endorsement.
If Modi insists on anti China, he will have fewer opportunities to contact Russia in the future. The Russian Foreign Minister publicly stated that the Russian side recently proposed to hold the China Russia India meeting, but the Indian side requested to comprehensively solve the China India border issue first, which led to the stagnation of work.
On the other hand, the strategic interests of Russia and the United States are highly opposed. The quasi war between Russia and NATO cannot be overstated. Any cooperation between the United States and India will shake the already precarious trust relationship between Russia and India. As a result, although Russia and India maintain good interaction on the surface, few substantive cooperation can be achieved.
China, Russia and India
As soon as the news of Modi's visit to Russia was announced, the United States warned that India Russia relations would hinder India US cooperation. Therefore, if Russia and India want to really improve their relations, it does not depend on how many times Modi flies to Moscow, but on whether India can put down its mind, stop treating China as an imaginary enemy, and develop a good "good neighborly and friendly relationship".
It is difficult to say this, and it is not difficult to say it. It is difficult to say, because Modi instigated a set of Hindu nationalism, which doomed him to be unable to sit down and talk calmly with China in a short time. Modi won the third term in India's general election this year, but the Indian People's Party did not get an absolute majority in the parliament, showing a clear decline compared with the previous two terms.
Nationalism is Modi's last card to stabilize his power, so he will never easily put down China as a useful target. It is not difficult to say because India's path is doomed to be a dead end and will turn back sooner or later. The reason for this is very simple. The United States and India today have nothing practical to offer each other except "emotional value".
US India
The United States is trying to woo India to pretend that it has a chip in its hand that can deal with China; India is close to the United States to pretend that it can deal with China. Sullivan went to India to talk about military cooperation and security cooperation, and the joint voice issued by Sullivan will fall tomorrow. But the problem is that the United States has "institutional advantages". Biden said that the export commitments are not true, let alone Sullivan.
The United States previously led Britain and Australia to engage in "Orcus", but the United States Congress delayed the transfer agreement of nuclear submarines for more than two years on the grounds of technical confidentiality. According to the latest road map released by the United States, Britain and Australia, even if everything goes well, Australia will have to wait until 2040 to get a nuclear submarine.
If nuclear technology is too sensitive, let's talk about Turkey, another country. Turkey angrily placed an order for the S400 system to Russia because it failed to purchase the Patriot system that year, and then it was excluded from the F35 project by the United States. If the United States still treats the "five eyes" countries and NATO members like this, it is conceivable what treatment India will get.
At the same time, what India can give to the United States is also very limited. Modi advocated "Made in India". As a result, the proportion of manufacturing industry in India's GDP did not increase but decreased. For a country like India, which has not completed even the most basic land reform, it is almost impossible to replace China in the global supply chain.
Moreover, the set of Hindu nationalist lines that Modi has pursued are also "incompatible" with the United States. Modi has begun to assassinate Sikh leaders in the United States and Canada across borders. The closer the two countries get, the more similar conflicts will be.
Therefore, the cooperation between the United States and India is doomed to fall into a vicious circle in repeated attempts and failures, and it is almost inevitable that it will develop into a "brawl" in the end. Both China and Russia have enough time and confidence to watch the great fun that the United States and India will make after they break their faces.
