"If there is no trade barrier, Chinese auto companies can kill most of the world's auto companies."
This was Elon Musk's opinion at the beginning of the year. Joint venture car companies in the Chinese market are now taking the lead in experiencing the competitive power from independent car companies.
In the middle of 618, digital 3C products had a big discount in previous years, but this year they became cars.
FAW Toyota, famous for price increases, launched a special discount price during 618, with a limited time and quantity discount of 43000 yuan. The event only lasts from June 15 to June 18. In particular, the Toyota Corolla, which was once the first model in the world in terms of sales volume, had its starting price reduced from about 120000 yuan to 79800 yuan.
Not only are low-end joint venture models sold in the "broken" market, but luxury brand A is also sold in the "bloody sale" market. In May this year, the promotion of luxury cars reached a peak of 21.7%. Whether it is a first-line or a second-line luxury brand, it has become normal for the price of models to be significantly reduced. Among them, Mercedes Benz EQE reduced by 210000 yuan, and EQB directly gave 50% discount; BMW X3 directly reduced the price by 90000 yuan, i3 reduced the price by 140000 yuan; Audi reduced the price of A4L by 110000 yuan and Q5 by 120000 yuan.
BB
For joint ventures, price reduction is not the end of the beginning, but the beginning of the end. In this round of price war, only the profits of joint-venture automobile enterprises will be cut off. As long as the backlog of inventory is sold out, it is nothing but to earn less. However, if there is still no dawn to reverse the situation after rounds of price reduction, the only thing waiting for the joint venture car companies may be to withdraw from the Chinese market.
A
According to the data of the Passenger Car Association, the overall car market in May 2024 will show a growth state. In May, the retail sales volume of the domestic narrow sense passenger car market reached 1.71 million, down 1.9% year on year and up 11.4% month on month; From January to May, the cumulative sales volume was 8.073 million, up 5.7% year on year.
but The growth is mainly from China's independent automobile enterprises. In May this year, BYD's retail sales volume was 268000, up 21.5% year on year, accounting for 15.7% of the overall market share; Geely has about 123800 cars, up 31.6% year on year. Although FAW Volkswagen, a joint venture, still has 124000 vehicles and is in the second place, its sales volume dropped 17.5% year on year. SAIC Volkswagen and GAC Toyota also recorded double-digit year-on-year decline.
In addition, in the field of new energy vehicles, Tesla's front row position is almost lost.
From the list of new energy manufacturers' retail sales, Tesla China ranked third with 55000 vehicles, the first being BYD, and the second being Geely. Specifically, Geely's new energy sales volume is only 56000 vehicles, far from that of BYD, but the year-on-year growth rate reached 148.3%. Similarly, Chang'an Automobile, which ranked fourth, increased by 100.3% year on year. The joint efforts of independent car enterprises will push Tesla out of the top three, and it is just around the corner.
In 2023, joint venture car companies may still have a fluke mentality, but by 2024, almost no one can choose to wait and see, and independent car companies have become unstoppable. In 2024, the cumulative share of self owned brands will be 56%, an increase of 6.6 percentage points over the same period last year. In May, the market share of self owned brand wholesale was 64%, up 9.2 percentage points over the same period last year.
In contrast, 490000 mainstream joint venture brands were retailed in May, down 21% year on year. Among them, the retail share of German brands in May was 18.6%, down 2 percentage points year on year, and that of Japanese brands was 14.8%, down 3.2 percentage points year on year. The retail market share of American brands reached 6.7%, down 1.4 percentage points year on year.
In essence, The competition for market share between independent and joint ventures has intensified the intensity of a new round of price war.
On the one hand, brands such as BYD and Great Wall launched cheap hybrid models, which are cheap and big, forcing joint ventures to lower their prices; On the other hand, the joint-venture automobile enterprises have accumulated a large amount of inventory. If the dealers cannot digest it in time, it will produce a series of chain reactions. According to the data of the Passenger Transport Federation, by the end of May 2024, the national passenger vehicle inventory will be 3.29 million, down 100000 on a year-on-year basis.
But the really terrible thing is not that the joint venture car lost its share, but that the joint venture car has no power to fight back.
B
GAC is the most clear about the joint venture car companies being beaten down.
From 2020 to 2023, GAC has a feature that it will not be moved. The majority of the group's profits are made by joint ventures. Since 2020, the average annual loss of its independent business has reached about 5 billion yuan, while the joint venture profit has remained above 10 billion yuan all the year round until 2023, when it suddenly plummeted to 8.7 billion yuan.
Zeng Qinghong, Chairman of GAC Group, said bluntly at this year's China Auto Chongqing Forum: "It is OK to roll the price, but it should be rational and have a bottom line, and not excessive. It is OK to make profits, but not sustainable. Enterprises cannot survive without benefits, which will have a negative impact on tax revenue, employment and upstream and downstream industries."
Although it is said that roll is OK In addition to the price, the joint venture car companies are hard to beat the independent car companies in terms of products and technology at this stage. It can even be said that some joint venture cars have no ability to fight back.
First, look at Japanese joint venture cars. The "Japanese Big Three" led by Toyota is famous for its fuel economy, durability and high value preservation in the era of fuel vehicles. However, in the new energy era, the advantages of fuel saving will be eliminated directly.
Some time ago, BYD released the fifth generation DM plug-in hybrid technology, with power loss fuel consumption of 2.9L/100km and comprehensive endurance mileage of more than 2100 km. What's more, the starting price of BYD Qin L DM-i and Seal 06 DM-i, which are the first to carry this technology, is only 99800 yuan. In addition to BYD, Dongfeng, Chery and other automobile enterprises have successively launched hybrid vehicles with a range of more than 2000 kilometers, which is undoubtedly a kind of rolling existence for joint venture fuel vehicles.
The advantages of durability of joint venture vehicles are also gradually declining. According to the data of Car Quality Network, in 2023, the number of complaints from independent, Japanese, American and French brands will increase to varying degrees year on year, and the number of complaints from other brands in other countries will fall back. Among them, the number of complaints from American brands has broken out, with a double growth year on year. It is worth noting that the number of complaints of Japanese brands exceeded 30000 for the first time in history, up 92.8% year on year. Most complaints came from some popular models of Toyota brands.
The only advantage that can be said is that only the hedge ratio is left for joint ventures. According to J D. According to Power's data, in 2023, Japanese and German fuel vehicles will maintain a leading position in terms of value preservation ratio, and Honda, Toyota and A models will still have a high market share of second-hand fuel vehicles. However, with the round after round of price reduction this year, the price of second-hand cars is inversely linked to that of new cars, and the myth of the hedge ratio of joint venture cars may also usher in a turning point this year.
BB
Another interesting change is that, The premium capacity of joint venture cars is also about to be cleared.
In particular, the German luxury car led by A, which used to be the highlight of comfort, technology and luxury products, has been beaten by Huawei and Ideals one by one. In the past, luxury cars will be equipped with some of the latest technologies and configurations, which will be provided to users through optional configuration, virtually requiring users to pay higher fees. However, with the popularity of "all series standard configuration" of independent car enterprises, high configuration and low price have become the norm in the industry.
BB
According to the monitoring data of Gaogong Intelligent Automobile Research Institute, in 2023, the passenger cars in the Chinese market (excluding import and export) will be equipped with 1. 0 smart cabins (L2+digital networking cabins+OTAs), 6.3532 million, of which the proportion of independent brands will exceed 50%. Among them, the average delivery price of new smart class cars with 1.0 self owned brand configuration is 241200 yuan, far lower than 308300 yuan of foreign brands (including joint ventures). In the part of 2.0 smart cabin driving (NOA+AI cockpit), independent brands almost monopolize the market.
C
The joint venture car enterprises that are hard supported in China may have only two ways to go next.
The first way is to put down face and cooperate with Chinese enterprises comprehensively.
For example, in terms of intelligence, SAIC Volkswagen's Tiguan L Pro adopts the intelligent driving scheme provided by Dajiang Auto, which is the first joint venture car enterprise to adopt the domestic intelligent driving scheme.
Previously, it was reported that Mercedes Benz would adopt the intelligent driving scheme of Momenta. It is also reported that the intelligent driving scheme of Toyota's next global model will adopt the tripartite joint mode of "Toyota+Huawei+Momenta". According to insiders, the cooperation mode is: purchase Huawei's MDC and use the algorithm of Momenta.
Whether you choose the parts scheme of Huawei BU or Hi mode, you will have the opportunity to shorten the research and development time of Smart Drive and quickly connect with the market. However, it should be noted that the cooperation with Chinese enterprises only shortens the gap in products and technology, which does not mean that it can directly achieve sales growth.
Even if Japanese car companies use Huawei Smart Drive system to complement their weaknesses, it is still a big test for car companies to give full play to their product strength. Previously, the three electric systems used by FAW Toyota bZ3 were all from BYD. However, when the core parts were the same, the final sales volume of bZ3 was significantly different from that of BYD products at the same level due to product price, design, naming and other issues.
In the same way, even if Japanese car companies use Huawei Smart Drive system or Hongmeng cockpit as brands such as Quest, they will eventually be unable to play their advantages due to other product problems. At the same time, there is an essential difference between automotive products and consumer electronics. As the second largest consumer goods after real estate, users will be more cautious when choosing, and will not order blindly because of the Huawei Smart Drive system.
If the joint venture cannot be saved even by the thigh, there may be only the second way to go - to pack up things and go back home.
According to Reuters, Nissan Motor said on June 21 that in order to optimize its operation, the company has suspended production at its factory in Changzhou, China. You should know that this factory will not be put into production until the end of 2020, with an annual capacity of about 130000 vehicles, mainly producing SUVs for Xiaoke. It only took three years from opening the door to closing the door, which shows the fierce market competition.
According to the Nikkei News, price competition in China is intensifying, especially in the field of electric vehicles. Japanese manufacturers' sales fell sharply, even leading to the closure of factories for reconstruction. Nissan has begun to consider cutting China's production capacity by about 500000 vehicles at most, and the current annual production capacity is about 1.6 million vehicles, equivalent to 30% of China's annual production capacity.
The joint venture car enterprises that are about to exit should think about how to realize their fixed assets as soon as possible instead of struggling. Like the "bosom friend" pure electric model of Landu Auto, the production plant is located in the Dongfeng Nissan Yunfeng plant. Previously, Dongfeng Nissan pure electric vehicle Ariya was produced here, while Now it is equivalent to the workers of joint-venture automobile enterprises, who will work for independent automobile enterprises.
As early as two years ago, there was a prediction about the trend of "closing, stopping and turning".
In 2020, Zhu Huarong, Chairman of Chang'an Automobile, said at the forum of China Electric Vehicle Hundred Talents Association that there will be 85 brands in the traditional fuel vehicle market in 2021, of which 34 brands will sell less than 1000 vehicles per month, and 9 brands will die out. "In the next 3-5 years, 80% of Chinese fuel vehicle brands will be shut down and put into operation."
At present, it is time for China's auto industry to "shut down and turn around".
