Looking forward to the property market in the second half of the year
Editor's Note
By the middle of the year, what was the trend of the property market in the second half of the year? From the statistical data of the National Bureau of Statistics and relevant market research institutions, the property market is still in adjustment in the first half of the year. With the introduction and implementation of a series of favorable policies, "combination boxing", the recent transactions in the property market are further active, and the overall market shows signs of gradually stabilizing. This issue of Real Estate Weekly focuses on the property market in the second half of the year and looks forward to the future.
Photo source: Xinhua News Agency
■ China Economic Times reporter Li Xiaohong
In the first half of the year, favorable policies emerged frequently in the real estate market. Especially since the end of April, various regions have been implementing policies for the city and continuously adjusting and optimizing the real estate policies. With the implementation of these policies, buyers' expectations have changed, market confidence has gradually recovered, and the overall market shows signs of stabilizing.
According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics recently, in May, the sales area of commercial housing in 70 large and medium-sized cities in a single month was 73.9016 million square meters, down 20.69% year on year and up 12.24% month on month; The sales amount was 759.84 billion yuan, down 26.38% year on year and up 13.21% month on month.
In the first half of the year, favorable policies emerged frequently in the property market
Since the end of April, the first and second tier hot cities, such as Beijing, Shenzhen, Tianjin, Chengdu, Hangzhou, Xi'an, Shenyang, Suzhou, Zhuhai, have intensively optimized the housing purchase restriction policy, including Chengdu, Hangzhou, Xi'an, Shenyang, Suzhou, Zhuhai, etc. So far, among the key cities in China, only Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Sanya, Haikou, Tianjin and other places have not completely lifted the purchase restriction.
On May 17, the central bank and other four departments jointly held a real estate policy briefing, and launched a series of policy "combination fists", such as reducing the down payment ratio of commercial banks' housing loans, abolishing the lower limit of housing loan interest rates, lowering the loan interest rate of individual housing provident fund, and establishing 300 billion yuan of affordable housing refinancing.
Yu Huayi, deputy director of the Urban and Real Estate Research Center of the National Development and Strategy Research Institute of Renmin University of China, told the China Economic Times that the real estate policy in the first half of the year had three characteristics: first, the policy was strong and there was still further policy reserve. Second, there is policy innovation. "Purchasing existing commercial housing as affordable housing" is an innovative policy that has never been seen before. Third, the policy goal is not to anchor housing prices, but also to address the multi-dimensional goals of new housing inventory, market liquidity, residential housing security, corporate financing and local finance.
"The first half of the year was dominated by the demand side management policy, hoping to achieve market recovery by stimulating and appropriately expanding the demand side purchasing power." Wang Ruimin, associate researcher of the Market Economy Research Institute of the Development Research Center of the State Council, told the China Economic Times.
In the opinion of Wu Yingjie, a researcher at the Japan Research Center of the National (Beijing) Institute of Opening up Studies at the University of International Business and Economics, in the first half of 2024, the real estate policy will tend to support rigid and improving housing demand, reduce the housing purchase burden of families in need through credit, tax and other means, and at the same time, limit speculative housing purchases to prevent market bubbles. While maintaining the steady and healthy development of the real estate market, the government has carried out differentiated regulation on different regions and different market demands to avoid market fluctuations. The policy adjustment aims to adapt to market changes and stabilize the expectations of buyers and developers.
According to the latest data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, the introduction and implementation of favorable policies for real estate have indeed activated the property market to a certain extent, promoted the increase of trading volume, and the policy effect is emerging. The data shows that from January to May, the year-on-year decline of many indicators, such as the sales of new houses, the funds paid by real estate enterprises, and the area of newly started houses, has narrowed.
Yu Huayi said that the introduction of these policies and measures has played a role in stabilizing residents' expectations, and let buyers see the country's determination to stabilize house prices and expectations. From the first tier cities, we can observe the change trend of the real estate market towards a positive direction.
"The relaxation of the purchase restriction policy has enabled more potential buyers to enter the market. The reduction of the mortgage interest rate has reduced the financial burden of buyers, and the purchase subsidy has directly increased the purchasing power of buyers. These measures help to stabilize house prices, avoid sharp fluctuations in the market, and thus maintain the stability of the real estate market." Wu Yingjie said.
Zhang Chuanyong, a researcher at the China Institute of Urban Governance and the School of International and Public Affairs of Shanghai Jiaotong University, told the China Economic Times that for house buyers, the more practical policy is to reduce the cost of house purchase, such as reducing the loan interest rate and increasing the interest tax credit.
However, Wu Yingjie also pointed out that although the introduction of favorable policies in the real estate market has played a certain role in restoring the confidence of buyers, there is still a long way to go between stabilizing the property market and restoring the confidence of buyers.
Property market policy may continue to increase
At the executive meeting of the State Council held on June 7, it was proposed that we should focus on promoting the implementation of policies and measures that have been introduced and take effect, and continue to study new policies and measures to reduce inventory and stabilize the market.
Chen Wenjing, director of market research of China Index Research Institute, believes that the NSC will further clarify the policy orientation of "de stocking" and "stabilizing the market", which also releases a more powerful positive signal for the market. From the perspective of policy trends, only Beijing among the first tier cities has not followed the "517" new policy, and there is room for optimization in the future to reduce down payment and interest rates. In addition, first tier cities are expected to continue to optimize restrictive policies, such as optimizing large-scale purchase restrictions, canceling price restrictions, etc., and local governments also have optimization expectations in terms of reducing transaction taxes. These policy measures are conducive to easing the wait-and-see mood of house buyers and further promoting the release of demand for improved housing.
Wang Ruimin said that the real estate market is more sensitive to the interest rate policy, and the interest rate level determines whether it is cost-effective to "buy" or "rent". After the "517" new policy, with the lower limit of interest rates for the first and second apartments adjusted by the underground, the interest rate of commercial loans for individual housing also further decreased. However, the interest rate of stock housing loans has not been adjusted for the time being, which deserves attention. In addition, the process of building a new model of real estate development is also the process of looking for the second growth curve of real estate, which requires a new landmark residential form to lead the residential upgrading.
Wu Yingjie believes that the real estate policy adjustment in the second half of the year can be made from three aspects. First, differentiated regulation. According to the real estate market conditions in different cities, implementing differentiated control policies can not only effectively control the house prices in hot cities, but also promote the healthy development of the real estate market in other regions. Second, long-term mechanism construction. Strengthen the long-term supervision of the real estate market, and build a long-term management and regulation mechanism of the real estate market through taxation, land supply, leasing market and other means. Third, fine-tuning of financial policies. On the premise of ensuring financial security, appropriately adjust the housing loan policy, such as reasonably adjusting the loan interest rate and down payment ratio to adapt to market changes and residents' purchasing power.
As for the trend of the real estate policy in the second half of the year, Yu Huayi believed that the meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee on April 30 set the tone for the future trend of the real estate policy. Promoting the steady development of the real estate market has always been the main theme of the development of the real estate market. In recent years, with new changes in the real estate market, the central government attaches great importance to real estate risks, and future real estate policies will also be launched from the perspective of actively and steadily resolving real estate risks.
"In the second half of the year, the driving force of the real estate policy will pay more attention to the stability and long-term development of the market, and the continuity and stability of the policy will be the key factor." Wu Yingjie said.
Prepared by director Wang Hui Che Haigang
Supervised by Li Piguang, Wang Yu, Liu Weimin
Chief Editor | Mao Jinghui Editor | Jiang Shuai
