Author: Young Master Never Regrets
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In the Guangdong Hong Kong Macao Greater Bay Area, the most active economic region in China, the economy has been declining all the way. What happened in Zhongshan?
This should be the question of the soul of many Zhongshan people and those who want to buy houses in Zhongshan.
You should know that the Guangdong Hong Kong Macao Greater Bay Area is one of the regions that the country attaches most importance to. It is blessed with various policy dividends. There are three leading brothers in Hong Kong, Shenzhen and Guangzhou. The economy is very active, so many people are optimistic about the property market here.
However, Zhongshan seems to be offline, which is out of step with the development of the whole Guangdong Hong Kong Macao Greater Bay Area.
In those days, Zhongshan was one of the four little tigers in Guangdong, famous for a time.
At the end of the 1970s, the mainland of China started the reform and opening up mode. Shenzhen, Zhuhai, Shantou and Xiamen were designated as special economic zones, and the Pearl River Delta sprang out.
By the 1980s, the Pearl River Delta had become the most active area in mainland China. Guangzhou and Shenzhen were running with all their strength and became two wheels of the horse drawn carriages in Guangdong Province. Zhongshan City, Nanhai City, Shunde City and Dongguan City are following in the footsteps of Guangzhou and Shenzhen, and their development is also extremely rapid.
In 1987, Wang Zhigang, a reporter from the Guangdong branch of Xinhua News Agency in his early thirties, and his colleagues ran around the Pearl River Delta and wrote a report entitled "Four Little Tigers Jumping up in Guangdong". Since then, the four little tigers have appeared.
Since then, Zhongshan has gone all the way to catch up with and surpass Shantou, Zhanjiang, Huizhou, Jiangmen and Maoming. During the period from 2004 to 2007, it has successfully taken the fifth place in Guangdong Province, ranking second only to Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Foshan and Dongguan in strength.
From 2008 to 2016, Zhongshan, like the whole Pearl River Delta, entered the lane of rapid development and ran like crazy.
In 2016, Zhongshan's GDP was 3202.78, with a growth rate of 7.8%, 2.64 times higher than that in 2007. In ten years, it has nearly tripled, and the growth rate is very rapid.
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However, in 2017, Zhongshan began to show signs of recession. At that time, the signs were not obvious, but now looking back, the turning point is in 2017.
Data: Zhongshan Bureau of Statistics
The GDP growth rate of Zhongshan City was 6.6% in 2017 and 5.9% in 2018, both of which were lower than the national average economic growth rate of that year.
In 2019, under the new trade situation, Zhongshan's economy will be further hit. The situation is not optimistic.
Data shows that in the first quarter, the GDP growth rate of Zhongshan was only 2.6%; In the first half of the year, it slipped to 0.9%. In the first three quarters, the economic growth rate of Zhongshan was still as low as 1.1%, far lower than the national economic growth rate, and far lower than the average economic growth rate of the nine cities in the Pearl River Delta, ranking at the bottom of the nine cities.
Last year, the annual growth rate was only 1.2%, ranking the last in the Pearl River Delta and the last in 21 cities in Guangdong Province.
Against this background, Zhongshan was overtaken by Zhuhai, Jiangmen and Maoming behind him, and retreated to the ninth place in Guangdong Province, and was about to be overtaken by Zhanjiang, falling to the tenth place.
Data: statistical bureaus of cities
In the Gengzi year, when Zhongshan was in charge in a special period, it was even worse.
The GDP of Zhongshan fell by 13.1% in the first quarter and 6.5% in the first half of the year. In the first three quarters, against the background of positive growth in most cities across the country, the GDP of Zhongshan remained negative at - 1.4% year on year.
The key question is, what on earth caused Zhongshan's economy to stall?
I think there are objective reasons as well as subjective reasons.
The objective reasons include two aspects. On the one hand, the international trade environment has changed, which has brought great negative effects on Zhongshan. On the other hand, the property market regulation has also brought great pressure on Zhongshan's economy.
The three cornerstones of Zhongshan's economy are import and export, real estate and industry.
From the data queried by Zhongshan Bureau of Statistics, we can see that the import and export data of Zhongshan is not good looking when the international trade environment changes.
In 2017, the total import and export volume of Zhongshan was 258.15 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.4%, and by 2018, it had dropped by 9.3%. In 2019, the total value of import and export was 238.719 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 2.0%. However, its imports fell sharply, 15.2% lower than the previous year.
The other base is real estate. Under the background of macro regulation, in 2019, the fixed asset investment in Zhongshan fell by 17.6%, of which the investment in real estate development fell by 24.5%.
In terms of industrial cornerstone, someone has made statistics that the contribution of industry to Zhongshan's GDP is about 50%, 56% in 2008 and 46% in 2018. With such a high proportion, it can be basically said that industrial prosperity leads to economic prosperity, and industrial inaction leads to economic inaction.
According to the data, in the first half of 2019, the secondary industry in Zhongshan experienced a rare negative growth of 1.5% and a decline of 1.6% for the whole year. In the first three quarters of 2020, it dropped by 2.7%.
The added value of industries above designated size and the output value of industries above designated size both failed, and the number of loss making enterprises increased by 23.2% in the first half of last year. In the third quarter, the decline in added value of industries above designated size continued to expand to 2.1%, down 2% for the whole year.
In the first three quarters of 2020, the added value of industries above designated size in Zhongshan decreased by 2.9% year on year.
The three cornerstones are shaking. How can Zhongshan's economy not decline?
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In addition to the objective reasons, there are also subjective reasons, that is, the internal factors of Zhongshan.
On the whole, Zhongshan's GDP stalled due to its four difficulties:
1. The development mode dominated by traditional professional towns is difficult to sustain, the competitiveness of professional towns has declined, and the growth of traditional industries has slowed down; 2. The development model based on land expansion is difficult to sustain, and extensive land use and inefficient development are prominent; 3. It is difficult to carry out innovation driven development with the township led development model, and the attraction and carrying capacity of high-end elements are insufficient; 4. It is difficult to build a livable city with the existing urban spatial layout, and the "small pie" in urban construction and fragmentation of resource utilization need to be overcome.
In the context of rising house prices, Zhongshan's competitiveness is becoming weaker and weaker. In the past five years, the housing price in Zhongshan has doubled or doubled under the concept of Shenzhen China Channel.
The high housing price has produced an obvious crowding out effect on Zhongshan's industries, enterprises and talents.
A very obvious truth is that in terms of economic status, Zhongshan has no comparison with Foshan and Dongguan, and in terms of traffic status, it has no comparison with the former two. In terms of housing prices, Zhongshan's housing prices are not much lower than Foshan's, and in terms of salary, Zhongshan has no comparison with Dongguan and Foshan's. If you were you, what would you choose?
Therefore, Zhongshan has no other way to revitalize its tiger power, but to improve its competitiveness.
On the one hand, we need to overcome the four difficulties.
On the other hand, it is necessary to quickly make use of the planning of the Guangdong Hong Kong Macao Greater Bay Area, strengthen the cooperation between itself and surrounding cities, give full play to its advantages in low business costs, make good use of the Guangzhou Metro Line 18, hold tightly the legs of Guangzhou, make good use of the Shenzhen China Channel, hold tightly the legs of Shenzhen, and take the initiative to seek to undertake the spillover industries of Guangzhou, Shenzhen and Hong Kong.
At the same time, we should also suppress the momentum of hyping Zhongshan's house prices with the Shenzhen China Channel as a gimmick.
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Finally, can we buy houses in Zhongshan?
My view is very clear. It is promising in the long term, but it is not suitable for investment in the short term.
First, the economy of Zhongshan cannot support the substantial rise of house prices.
Second, the concept of Shenzhen China Channel is no longer fresh and has been fired round after round. In terms of the stock market, all good things come out.
Third, working in Guangzhou and Shenzhen and living in Zhongshan are fools.
The hype about Guangzhou Metro Line 18 and Shenzhen China Channel is nothing more than that when Guangzhou Line 18 is opened and Shenzhen China Channel is open to traffic, you can work in Guangzhou and Shenzhen and live in Zhongshan.
As long as it is across the city, it is difficult to talk about convenience.
It is obvious that even if you work in Futian, Shenzhen, it is difficult to live in Bao'an. Although there is a direct subway line 11, let alone cross the city.
Based on the above three points, Zhongshan's house is not suitable for buying in the short term, and I think there is a risk of decline.
Of course, if you have enough capital to go through the regulation cycle and the adjustment cycle of Zhongshan's economy, you can buy it at this time.
