So far, China's real estate has carried out three market rescues, namely in 2008, 2014 and 2024.
The first two times had obvious effects. After the rescue, house prices rose rapidly, but this time, house prices could not be pulled. Why?
Look at a set of data to understand:
First of all, the per capita living area in China is 41.7 square meters, compared with 62.4 square meters in the United States, 46.6 square meters in Germany, 40 square meters in Poland, 37.6 square meters in Britain and 36.5 square meters in France.
Secondly, the population growth rate is -1.48 ‰, and the leverage ratio of residents is 64.12%. The data is not very optimistic.
Then, the urbanization rate is 64.12%, which has stabilized.
Finally, the real estate market value/GDP is 357%, which is very dangerous.
Compared with historical data, we can understand the meaning of 357% more clearly.
In the 1990s, before Japan's real estate bubble burst, its housing market value accounted for 391% of GDP.
Before the 2008 financial crisis, the ratio of housing market value to GDP was 169% in the United States, 216% in Japan, 207% in Germany, 269% in the United Kingdom, and 362% in France.
The danger is self-evident.
Therefore, the national team began to close the house.
We will issue 300 billion yuan to 21 banks, allowing them to direct to central and state-owned enterprises, and then they will purchase unsold stock housing in the market and convert it into affordable housing.
Here are three key points:
(1) The 300 billion yuan of affordable housing loans is actually 500 billion yuan.
Because after the acquisition, the stock house acquisition project can refinance at 60% of the principal and refinance 200 billion yuan.
This is called refinancing, so a total of 500 billion yuan has been released.
(2) The definition of stock houses is very clear: the new houses that the developers have not sold.
(3) The state issues special bonds to close the circulation of funds, specifically for the purchase of new houses in stock, and uses the proceeds from subsequent rental sales to repay the special bonds.
The interest rate is low. The interest rate of the whole loan is 1.75%, and the term is one year. However, it can be extended four times, which is four years.
Therefore, the interest cost can be covered as long as the rent to sell ratio reaches 2%.
In the last round, the monetization of the shed was carried out, and the price was raised to reduce the inventory. It is effective in the short term, but effective in the long term.
In this round, we borrowed money to rescue the market, and the official stocks were taken and destocked.
At present, it is a relatively effective way to solve the major problems of real estate with the minimum cost by paying the state and transferring the local collection and storage to guarantee housing.
Three effects are achieved: (1) helping the local destocking and alleviating the pressure of debt repayment, (2) improving the utilization rate of idle properties, and (3) meeting the multiple needs of residents for replacement and improvement and rental housing.
And from the consumer side, reduce the down payment, lower the interest rate of provident fund loans, and then cancel the lower limit of the national loan interest rate to stimulate purchase.
As a matter of fact, as early as last year, the pilot layout was started. The central bank raised 100 billion yuan for this purpose. Led by China Development Bank, major banks in various countries provided super long-term funds to Tianjin, Chongqing, Jinan, Zhengzhou, Changchun, Chengdu and Fuzhou.
Now the inventory is so large that issuing bonds directly to buy back new houses not only solves the problem of affordable housing, but also solves the problem of destocking.
Lengthen the period and exchange time for space.
The national team stepped down in person. The current property market is depressed. If the national team can hold down prices and store at low prices, it will also form a market "reference price", which will restrain the market price.
At present, the real estate is divided into several categories: commercial housing, school district housing, talent housing, apartment housing, affordable housing, group buying housing, and French auction housing.
Now there is another one, the government storage houses.
If the number of government purchases is insufficient, it will not work at all. However, in the current situation, there is a serious oversupply, and the cash flow of all developers is tight, so they are eager for the government to come forward and get the funds back.
After 500 billion yuan, enterprises will survive and cash flow will be greatly eased if they enter the housing enterprises' pockets.
However, there are also problems. Without solving the problem of vascular blockage, we began to directly transfuse blood.
It is doomed that house prices cannot fall too much.
This is a great deal of trump card, and the determination to protect the real estate industry is very strong
In fact, all policies implicitly point to: House prices cannot fall too much.
The country hopes that the house price will fall once, but if it falls too much, it will have a big impact on the economy.
After all, more than 90% of the financial collateral in the country is real estate, and a large reduction will cause a great chain reaction.
It also shows that the economy needs real estate very much. After all, the market value of real estate is 3.57 times of GDP.
At the moment of China's transformation, there is no industry that can replace the status of real estate and related industries.
The original intention is good. The key is whether the implementation will be out of shape?
Whose house to buy, at what price, to whom to rent it, how long to rent it, and how to sublet it to others, You should trust the wisdom of the Chinese people.
No matter from any angle, there is no reason for China's current real estate to continue to rise. If the national team can continue to play, it will not be closed.
On the one hand, housing prices have declined, and on the other hand, the supply of affordable housing has increased.
This is just the beginning, and the restrictions will be relaxed gradually.
Strictly speaking, in 2024, it is appropriate to call an end party instead of a rescue.
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