Reported on May 25 on the reference news website According to the Associated Press on May 25, Ukrainian President Zelensky said that the Ukrainian army has gained "combat control" over the northeastern region of Kharkov, which was entered by Russian troops earlier this month.
Zelensky said in his night video speech on the evening of the 24th, "Our soldiers have now successfully controlled the border areas where Russian troops enter."
Zerensky said that the Ukrainian army has gained control of the battle in Kharkov Source: foreign media
Zelensky's remarks seem to be inconsistent with those of Russian officials.
According to the official Russian news agency, Tass News Agency, on the 24th, members of the Russian State Duma (the lower house of parliament) said that the Russian army "now controls more than half of the area in the town of Vavchansk, 5 kilometers from the border in Ukraine".
Since Russia launched an attack on Kharkov on May 10, the town of Vouchansk has been the focus of the battle. (Compilation/Hu 溦)
Extended Reading
Niu Playing the Qin: Putin, who has won another six years of the presidency while the offensive is smooth, wants to negotiate
Source: Niu Playing Qin
Putin wants to negotiate 。
This is an exclusive report from Reuters, and the source is four Russian sources.
Putin certainly has conditions. It is to start ceasefire negotiations according to the current front. If Ukraine and the West do not respond, Russia will continue to fight.
Reuters reported that Putin wanted to negotiate, but gave conditions
Reuters also quoted "a source who works with Putin and knows about the Kremlin" as saying: "Putin can fight as long as he wants, but he is also ready for a ceasefire to freeze the war."
Moreover, Reuters also claimed that all three sources revealed that, As for the West's obstruction of negotiations and Zelensky's refusal to negotiate, "Putin once expressed disappointment to his advisers" 。
Why now?
According to Reuters' analysis, the economist and former First Deputy Prime Minister Belovsov, who recently became Russia's new defense minister, once made some western analysts believe that Russia is ready to fight a long war.
But Putin, who won the six-year presidency again, is actually more willing to take advantage of the current battlefield situation to achieve a ceasefire. Two of them said that, In Putin's view, the results achieved by the Russian army are enough to "sell" a victory to the domestic people 。
According to their statements, Putin is very clear that Russia must mobilize again for war if it is to achieve significant results, which will affect Putin's support rate to some extent, and Putin does not want to do so.
Moreover, the longer the war drags on, the more likely the veterans who return to Russia will be dissatisfied with their jobs and incomes, which will bring problems to social stability.
So now we can consider ceasing fire.
Judging from the current battlefield situation, the Russian army controlled about 20% of the original land in Ukraine, and recently it has been advancing in the Kharkov region. According to Reuters, in Putin's view, Russia's population advantage and the high reward for front-line soldiers can maintain sufficient troops even without mobilization.
But what if Ukraine does not agree?
"Russia will further advance." A source said, Putin will slowly conquer more land until Zelensky proposes a ceasefire 。
In Putin's view, the West is also unlikely to provide Ukraine with enough weapons, which has hit the morale of the Ukrainian army.
The above are all Reuters exclusive reports, which are well analyzed. I don't know whether it is true or false, but it is not impossible.
In response to what he thought of the report, Vladimir Putin's press secretary Peskov said on May 24 that Russian leaders had repeatedly made it clear that Russia was willing to achieve its goals through dialogue and did not want a "permanent war".
In other words, Putin has always been in favor of negotiations.
But Ukraine does not accept Putin's terms of negotiation.
Zelensky's term of office was supposed to end on May 21
Moreover, Putin is also faced with another question, who to negotiate with.
"But who to negotiate with? This is not a boring question... Of course, we are aware that the legitimacy of the current head of state of Ukraine has ended." Putin said this when he visited Belarus on the 24th.
He was referring to the fact that Zerensky's term had ended, but there were no elections in Ukraine.
In Putin's view, the West hopes to support Zerensky's legitimacy through the Swiss Peace Conference to be held next month, which is just a "public relations step" without legal significance.
Obviously, Russia will not be invited to this meeting, nor will Russia participate in it.
Finally, what do you think?
We don't know the truth, but based on common sense, I always have a feeling that it is indeed the turning point of the Russian Ukrainian conflict.
It's better to be superficial.
First, Russia and Ukraine are under pressure for peace talks 。
The protracted war is a huge test for Russia and Ukraine, which means greater consumption and more lives.
Putin must have pressure, after all, the Soviet war in Afghanistan is not far away; In fact, the pressure of Zerensky is even greater. Ukraine's national strength is difficult to compare with Russia's.
Therefore, it really makes sense for Putin to take advantage of the smooth progress of the battlefield situation to show a peaceful attitude and preserve the victorious achievements.
Now is indeed a good opportunity for peace talks. Moreover, according to Reuters, Putin also implied that Russia has no territorial claims against NATO countries
Second, the peace talks must also face many obstacles 。
We can see at least two obstacles with the naked eye.
Zelensky and the Ukrainian hardliners.
What you can't get on the battlefield is more impossible to get at the negotiation table, especially for Russia. Now, the local ceasefire negotiations mean that about 20% of the land will belong to Russia, which is difficult for the Ukrainian hardliners to accept.
As for Zerensky, he signed the decree before, and any negotiation with Putin is "impossible". He also vowed to recapture all lost territories, including the Crimea Peninsula.
As a wartime president, Zelensky could not hold elections; But if peace talks are held on this condition, he will lose his legitimacy and even become an outcast of history.
2 is the West. The most important thing is the American attitude.
Had it not been for the encouragement and pressure of the United States and Britain, the Russia Ukraine peace talks would have been reached long ago.
One important reason why the United States and the West have provided various kinds of assistance to Ukraine, such as money, guns, planes and missiles, is that Russia is consumed by Ukraine.
In Putin's words, the United States wants to fight Russia to "the last Ukrainian".
Third, the next is the battlefield garbage time 。
It's a war of attrition. Talk about fighting, fight and talk. In many wars, the final stage is almost the same.
Ukraine's counter offensive, which it hoped for last year, actually failed; Russia will still make partial progress, but it is unlikely to win an overwhelming victory.
The war will always end. However, before the end of the war, a large number of soldiers on both sides will lose their lives. Although the final result is probably that both sides should step back and accept the reality.
For example, Russia will not give up Crimea, and Ukraine will not be able to take back the whole of Ukraine and join NATO.
In fact, this is also the plan of the world's richest man Mask the year before last. His reason is that the population of Russia is three times that of Ukraine. Russia still has a large number of nuclear weapons. Ukraine cannot win. Fighting back and forth will only lead to more deaths. Instead, it is better to negotiate and make peace earlier.
Musk once suggested that Russia and Ukraine negotiate early to achieve peace
But Zelensky and the West refused, believing that this was tantamount to surrender.
The war lasted another two years and consumed tens of thousands of lives. The war forced Ukraine to recruit more men and lower the age of enlistment.
Now, Putin has extended an olive branch, and of course, there is the threat of seizing more land; Next, let's see how Zerensky and the West take up the challenge 。
