All sectors of the United States have their own predictions and studies on when and how China will solve the Taiwan issue.
Some American experts believe that China will reunify Taiwan by 2027, the 100th anniversary of the founding of the Chinese People's Liberation Army. However, some "optimistic" scholars believe that China is not in a hurry at all. For China, the longer the Taiwan Strait issue drags on, the better it will be for China.
In 2022, Professor Li Anyou of Columbia University made the following inference. He published an article in Foreign Affairs magazine saying that
"In fact, the Chinese mainland has no intention to use force against Taiwan, and it is the preferred way to solve the problem for a long time.".
This American expert, known as "China hand", believes that:
"The reason for China's delay in unifying Taiwan by force depends precisely on China's patience, tenacity and determination on the Taiwan issue. In other words, this is not about tactical issues, but long-term strategies and choices."
Why did China make the strategic choice to fight a "protracted war"? Li Anyou said that the first thing is that the Russia Ukraine war gave China a wake up call.
Today's dilemma and dilemma of Russia fully demonstrates that the result of launching a war without full preparation is bound to be mired in war.
In addition, Russia underestimated the western countries' support for Ukraine. Today's western countries will no longer adopt the policy of appeasement, as Britain and France did during World War II.
China is also facing the same "dilemma" as Russia on the Taiwan Strait issue. In terms of weapons and equipment, the American style equipment of the Taiwan authorities is much more advanced than that of Ukraine; From the diplomatic perspective, Taiwan's ties with the United States, Japan and other countries are also much deeper than Ukraine's "periphery". In the event of a war across the Taiwan Strait, Taiwan will receive far more support than Ukraine.
At the same time, Li Anyou also calculated an "economic account" for China. The reason why Russia won't collapse is that Russia is a country rich in resources, sparsely populated, energy and food self-sufficient, and can survive even without relying on foreign trade.
China is different. 70% of its energy supply depends on imports, and its foreign trade is developed. Its economy has been deeply embedded in the world industrial chain. Once encountering western sanctions, it may encounter energy, food, raw materials and export crisis. This is very uneconomical for China.
Secondly, Li Anyou believes that China has realized that time is on China's side, not the United States.
