The college entrance examination in 2024 is approaching. According to online information, the number of applicants for the college entrance examination this year reached 13.53 million, an increase of 620000 over last year, and the number of applicants for the college entrance examination hit a new record. This paper will analyze the difficulty of college entrance examination admission and the difficulty of provincial undergraduate and junior college entrance examination online based on the relevant information of college entrance examination in recent years.
1、 In recent years, the number of people taking the college entrance examination has increased significantly, and the enrollment rate has begun to decline
From 2014 to 2017, the number of applicants for the college entrance examination in China was stable at about 9.4 million. From 2018 to 2021, the number of applicants for the college entrance examination will maintain a small increase. From 2022, the number of applicants will increase significantly. By 2023, the number of applicants for the college entrance examination will reach 12.91 million. According to the latest information on the Internet, the number of applicants for the college entrance examination will reach 13.53 million in 2024, an increase of 4.8% over last year, and the number will hit a new record.
Figure 1 Number of applicants for college entrance examination in China from 2014 to 2023 (10000)
Source: Ministry of Education
From 2014 to 2023, the number of undergraduate students enrolled in China maintained a steady growth, while the number of junior college students enrolled in 2019 increased significantly, surpassing the number of undergraduate students at one stroke and maintaining a sustained growth. By 2023, the number of undergraduate and junior college students will reach 4.87 million and 5.55 million respectively.
The proportion of undergraduate enrollment in college entrance examination enrollment has declined since 2018, and by 2023, the proportion has dropped to 37.7%. The proportion of the number of college students enrolled in the college entrance examination kept growing in 2017-2021, but it began to decline sharply in 2022, and the proportion dropped to 43% in 2023. The reason for the sharp decline in the proportion in the past two years is that the number of applicants for the college entrance examination has soared, while the number of applicants has not increased significantly.
Figure 2 Number of college and junior college students enrolled in China from 2014 to 2023 (10000)
Source: Ministry of Education
2、 Henan takes the lead in college entrance examination
In 2023, the number of applicants for college entrance examination in all provinces will reach 1.31 million, and Shandong, which ranks second in the number of applicants, will have a significant gap. Then came Hebei, Sichuan, Guangdong and other populous provinces. The smaller number of people taking the college entrance examination are the eastern municipalities directly under the Central Government and the western remote provinces. In 2023, only 33000 people will take the college entrance examination in Tibet, which is the smallest number of people in all provinces, cities and autonomous regions.
Figure 3 Number of applicants for college entrance examination by province in 2023 (10000 people)
Data source: provincial examination institutes
Note: The number of people announced by some provinces is the actual number of people taking the college entrance examination, not the number of people signing up for the college entrance examination, so the total number of people in each province is slightly lower than the total number of people signing up for the college entrance examination announced by the Ministry of Education
3、 The online rate of undergraduate courses in eastern municipalities and three eastern provinces is high, and the online rate of specialized subjects in Guangdong is the highest
In 2023, Henan Province will have the largest number of college entrance examination undergraduates online, reaching 419400, followed by Guangdong Province, with 333100. The higher undergraduate online rate is in the municipalities directly under the Central Government in the eastern region and the three northeastern provinces, of which the undergraduate online rate in Shanghai is 75.6%, the highest in China. The undergraduate online rate in Xinjiang is the lowest in China, only 23.5%.
Figure 4 Number of Undergraduate Students Online by Province in 2023 (10000)
Data source: provincial examination institutes
Note: Undergraduate online rate=number of undergraduates online/number of applicants for college entrance examination
In 2023, Henan Province and Guangdong Province will also rank the top two in terms of the number of college entrance examination subjects online, with 459500 and 363100 respectively. Guangdong Province has the highest rate of reaching 49.1%, followed by Ningxia and Qinghai with 48.3% and 44.8% respectively. Xinjiang has the lowest online rate, only 7.7%.
Figure 5 Number of provincial junior college students in 2023 (10000)
Data source: provincial examination institutes
Note: online rate of junior college=online number of junior college students/number of college entrance examination applicants
4、 Tianjin ordinary high school graduation rate reaches 111%
In 2022, Henan and Guangdong will still occupy the top two in the number of ordinary high school graduates in each province, reaching 742200 and 631300 respectively. However, the high school graduation rate in Tianjin has reached 111%. In 2019, 52243 ordinary high schools in Tianjin will enroll students, and in 2022, 58108 will graduate. The additional graduates may be "college entrance examination immigrants". Fujian Province has the lowest graduation rate of 92.9%.
Figure 6 Number of Graduates from Regular High Schools in Each Province in 2022 (10000)
Source: Ministry of Education
Note: Graduation rate of ordinary high schools in 2022=number of ordinary high school graduates in 2022/number of ordinary high school students in 2019
5、 The competition for college entrance examination in Henan, Guizhou and Jiangxi is extremely fierce
In 2022, the number of high school graduates in all provinces will reach 1115700 in Henan Province and 903200 in Guangdong Province. Henan Province has the highest ratio of college entrance examination applicants to high school graduates, reaching 112%, followed by Guizhou and Jiangxi, with the ratios of 111.7% and 111.5% respectively. Jilin Province has the lowest ratio, and the ratio between the number of college entrance examination and the number of high school graduates is only 66.7%.
The higher the ratio, the more intense the competition in the college entrance examination. The applicants for the college entrance examination are not only high school graduates, but also re entrants and social examinees. In provinces with a ratio of more than 100%, there are more re entrants and social examinees, and the competition pressure of new students is also greater.
Figure 7 Number of High School Graduates by Province in 2022 (10000)
Source: Ministry of Education
