Summary:
On Wednesday, Russia announced that it would move the border of the Baltic Sea to Lithuania and Finland. On Thursday, the legal document for adjusting the boundary of the Baltic States, which was announced only one day, was removed by Russia. Is it the reaction of the Baltic countries that Russia's draft of modifying the boundary line died prematurely? On Thursday morning, three B-52s flew to Europe. At noon, Russia pulled down the draft of modifying the Baltic Sea boundary.
1、 On Wednesday, Russia announced that it would move the border of the Baltic Sea to Lithuania and Finland.
On May 22, the German Herald reported that according to the draft government decree published on the legal acts portal, the Russian authorities had decided to expand the country's territorial sea in the Baltic Sea near the border with Lithuania and Finland.
According to the document of the Russian Ministry of Defense published on the legal act portal, Russia intends to declare some waters in the eastern part of the Gulf of Finland, as well as the sea areas near Baltisk and Zerenogratsk in Kaliningrad region, as internal waters of Russia.
To this end, Russia will change the location of the baseline for measuring the breadth of the territorial sea of the Russian Federation and the geographical coordinates of the points in the adjacent areas near the coast and islands.
On the border with Finland, the Russian government intends to adjust the coordinates of Yahi, Sommers, Holland, Rodscher, Maly Tyuters, Vigrund and other islands, as well as the entrance cape near the north of Narva River, in accordance with the annex of the cabinet decree. On the border with Lithuania, the Kurs Shazui area, the Taran Cape area, the cape to the south of Taran Cape and the Baltic Sea Shazui have been revised.
Forty years ago, the resolution of the Council of Ministers of the Soviet Union regulated the borders of the Baltic Sea, but on May 22, the Russian Ministry of Defense proposed that "recognition of the Baltic Sea" be invalid.
Russia's document on the modification of the Baltic Sea border was submitted to the public for discussion almost at the same time as the exercise of starting to use tactical nuclear weapons. The Russian Ministry of Defense announced that they started exercises from the southern military region with the participation of Iskandar complex and aircraft equipped with Kinzal missiles. The Department's Information Office said that the purpose of the exercise was to prepare personnel for the use of non strategic nuclear weapons and respond to "provocative remarks and threats by some Western officials".
On Tuesday, May 21, the Russian Ministry of Defense released a video showing that trucks were transporting missiles to the battlefield where the launch system was ready, and the airport troops were preparing a bomber to carry nuclear warheads.
2、 On Thursday, the legal document for adjusting the boundary of the Baltic States, which was announced only one day, was removed by Russia.
While we were speculating that Russia would dare to oppose NATO and the EU by adjusting the borders of the Baltic States, an accident happened. Russia quietly withdrew the document claiming to adjust the borders of the Baltic States.
The Newsweek on May 24 reported that Russia's proposal for the draft legislation had been published on the official government website on May 22, but it seemed to have been deleted on Wednesday. The draft law was deleted one day after it was published, which is the first time in Russian history, but the reason is still unclear.
On May 23, Dmitry Peskov, a spokesman of the Kremlin, tried his best to extinguish the fire for Russia's draft legislation on the Baltic Sea on May 22 when he was interviewed by the media.
He told reporters that the proposal of the Russian Ministry of Defense "has no political significance... You can see that the tension and confrontation are escalating, especially in the Baltic region. This requires our relevant institutions to take appropriate measures to ensure our security".
The Interfax news agency of Russia on May 23 also quoted a military diplomatic source who did not want to be named as saying that Moscow did not intend to change the width of the border or territorial sea, and the Kremlin had instructed to remove the untimely draft law.
Some political commentators in Russia made a lot of comments on the draft of the Ministry of Defense on the cable channel. One point of view is that when the Ukrainian war was not progressing and faced with a complete collapse, the Ministry of Defense attempted to threaten NATO by redrawing the Baltic border, which is not only meaningless, but may also give people a handle to justify NATO's next attack on Russia. Ukraine, with only one third of Russia, is unable to deal with it. In the face of NATO and the European Union, whose population is three times that of Russia and economic strength is 15 times that of Russia, it is indeed the culprit of the Russians to take such a bad policy.
3、 Is it the reaction of the Baltic countries that Russia's draft of modifying the boundary line died prematurely?
In the eyes of Russian fans and Russia's friendly countries, Russia's move is a feat. The Russian fan said, "Putin has done a big thing, pointing the gun at the west and redrawing the territorial sea border". It was also said in the article that "the economy is oriented towards the east" gives Putin confidence. "The muzzle of the gun is aimed at the west" is "Putin's gift to us".
However, Russia itself believes that "trying to rewrite the NATO border" will lead to the third world war that Russia cannot afford and will "destroy the country".
However, Russia's unilateral decision to change its maritime borders with Lithuania and Finland did not trigger a fierce reaction from NATO countries. On the contrary, the Baltic countries involved responded to Russia's latest threat with a very calm tone, a tone of neither arrogance nor contempt.
The European News on May 23 reported that leaders around the Baltic Sea made a cautious response on Wednesday to the possibility of Russia modifying its report on the territorial sea border in the region.
Finnish President Alexander Stubb said on X that Russia has not contacted Finland on this matter. But "Finland has always acted calmly based on facts".
According to the Finnish broadcasting company YLE, the Finnish Foreign Minister Elina Valtonen said that if the Russians wanted to challenge the border, then Russia would violate the United Nations Convention, and Russia would make the whole world oppose it. She said that Finland is not as isolated as Russia (suggesting NATO), so it is not afraid of Russia's routine provocations.
According to Swedish TT news agency, Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson said that Russia has signed a UN convention to regulate how to make such changes. "We and Finland both believe that Russia, as a signatory to the Convention, should fulfill this responsibility.".
The Lithuanian Foreign Minister said that this was an "obvious escalation" and must be responded to with "an appropriate and firm response".
On X, the Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis asserted that Russia "tried to spread fear, uncertainty and doubt about its intentions in the Baltic Sea".
Lithuania has summoned a Russian envoy today to ask for a detailed explanation.
The Lithuanian Foreign Ministry spokesman said: "This further proves that Russia's aggressive and revisionist policies are a threat to the security of neighboring countries and the whole of Europe.".
According to the German news agency, Boris Pistorius, the German defense minister who visited Lithuania on Wednesday, responded to Russia's remarks, saying "whatever this is or what it is actually, this seems to be another example of the thoroughly treacherous hybrid war Putin is carrying out".
Of course, forcing Russia to withdraw the draft law, which was only published for one day, is a bit self defeating, but it is also forced to do nothing. However, this kind of helplessness is not a few very restrained comments made by several EU countries, nor did Lithuania summon the Russian ambassador. It is because although the Baltic countries are small and not Russia's rivals, they are too powerful to protect the Baltic countries, and Russia cannot compete with them.
4、 On Thursday morning, three B-52s flew to Europe. At noon, Russia pulled down the draft of modifying the Baltic Sea boundary.
Since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, Finland and Sweden have joined NATO. The Baltic Sea is a sea passage for Russia to enter St. Petersburg and its Kaliningrad enclave, and now it is almost surrounded by members of the NATO military alliance. Kaliningrad is sandwiched between Lithuania in the north and east and Poland in the south. It is the seat of the Baltic Fleet of the Russian Navy.
Russia's sudden statement of modifying the Baltic Sea boundary may escalate and conflict with Finland and Lithuania, both NATO countries. The maritime border claim has also raised concerns that Russia's aggression will not stop in Ukraine.
Therefore, on the morning of May 23, the United States deployed three B-52 strategic bombers to Europe.
On the 23rd, Russia's Interfax News Agency reported that the United States Air Force Command in Europe said that the United States had temporarily deployed three B-52H Stratosphere Fortress strategic bombers at the British Fairford Base.
According to the report, these nuclear capable aircraft were deployed to Europe from Minot Air Force Base in North Dakota for "routine deployment of bomber task force".
It is reported that during their stay in Europe, the US Air Force bombers will interact with NATO allies to develop the security capabilities of the US European Command area of responsibility.
When explaining the action, the spokesman of the US Department of Defense said: "The United States regularly demonstrates its commitment to NATO allies and partners through combat bomber group missions. Through these tasks, the US Air Force in Europe has demonstrated its ability to use force dynamically in European and African war zones, providing strategic predictability and confidence for allies and partners, and promoting deterrence by providing greater operational unpredictability for potential adversaries. ".
The Kremlin is under great pressure from these three B-52. According to Russia's military level and strength, Russia will not be able to intercept B-52 for at least 10 years. These three B-52s silently warned Russia that if you dare to touch the border line of NATO countries, the B-52 will fly over the Kremlin and drop weapons capable of destroying Russia.
Therefore, the Kremlin has no choice but to withdraw the draft law prepared to change the boundary of the Baltic States. Of course, this also exposes Russia's external strengths but internal weaknesses.
[Author: Xu Sanlang]
