Note: Today we are conducting military exercises around Taiwan Island. In my personal opinion, there has always been an expectation that this problem will be solved in 2025. Why this year? Three years ago, when the interest rate in the West was still zero, I wrote this article. The situation is evolving in the expected direction, and is accelerating. I think it is 2025, and some people think it is 2027. No matter which year it is, now everyone's consensus on reunification is more and more clear. Let's wait and see.
As for the current rise of China, you may often hear a saying, "What will we do in our lifetime?" Many people are tired of hearing this. It means that life is too long. Who knows what will happen in our lifetime? What I want to tell you today is not the lifetime, but 2025, which is not too long, right?
What's different about 2025? To be honest, I can't predict, but judging from some preparations in recent years, 2025 is really not an ordinary year. Why do you say that? Because the promotion of many things from different fields points to a common time point, that is, 2025.
The first reaction of many people may be that this is the year of the end of the 14th Five Year Plan, and there must be many things stuck in this year. It seems right to understand this, but this explanation is not related to the changes in the international situation, but it is precisely the linkage between us and the world, which may be its particularity.
So what's important in 2025? Let's start with a few domestic preparations, and then compare the changes in the international situation. We will find that this may not be an ordinary year, because the turning point from quantitative change to qualitative change may be in this year.
Multiple key nodes in 2025
Since the United States began to crack down on us in high-tech, many people have been pessimistic about whether we can really make a breakthrough, but we have relatively clear plans for many projects. As long as the time comes, they have basically achieved. In particular, many of our space programs were planned ten or even decades ago, but the implementation time is still very close.
So many people are full of confidence when they see the goals that have been achieved, but they begin to be skeptical when they see the immediate difficulties, especially the lithography machine. Many people say that we want to make it domestically, which will take ten or twenty years at the earliest, but our plan has only a few years. Some people say that it is against the law of development.
Is it we who define the law, or is it the Western law that defines us? It is precisely because many people are full of doubts about our ability to achieve this plan, so I would like to draw up 2025 alone and tell you that you should not bet on getting wrong this time if you have repeatedly proved the question,
What are the specific aspects? Let me focus on two specific time point plans to break through the choke point in strategy.
The first sticking point: chip.
This is already well known. It can be simply said that before the core point of chips, the real thing is the 2025 manufacturing industry upgrading plan, which is equivalent to one aspect. But when it comes to sanctions and anti sanctions, the final aspect is chips. Once this point breaks, it will undoubtedly drive the whole aspect, so chips become the key among the keys.
As for this key point, we all know that we have a plan that the self-sufficiency rate of chips will reach 70% by 2025. These two figures are crucial. Why is 2025 the first? It is hard to tell the future time point, but what we know now is that most chips rely on imports, and the largest source of imports is Taiwan Province.
Because chips are related to the stability of the entire manufacturing industry, this is a pain point that we must solve. Especially in some special cases, if the import is interrupted, we must be able to ensure the security of supply. Therefore, the self-sufficiency rate of 70% may be the lowest security line.
The second choke point: sea passage.
This person doesn't know as much as the previous one. In fact, it is also related to our imports. Among our current imports, the first is the chip mentioned above, and the second is oil. However, oil imports are different from chips. Our oil import source countries are relatively scattered.
However, the transportation routes are very concentrated, with more than 60% coming from the Middle East and Africa, and the transportation routes of this area must pass through the Indian Ocean and the Strait of Malacca. The guarantee of oil supply is the most important part of energy security. Because of the dispersion of imports, there is no fear of supply interruption. The main fear is the interruption of maritime transport channels.
Since the security of the world's major shipping routes is still in the hands of the United States, the security of shipping routes is also a choke point, and we have to rely on our navy to protect it. Is there any corresponding plan? There are also some. Our navy has a strategic transformation towards deep blue ocean, and the time node is 2025.
There is a strategic requirement for this transformation: offshore defense and offshore protection. The most important thing of the Hiseas Guard is to ensure the safety of our relevant strategic channels.
These two points, which are related to national strategic security, are clearly planned to 2025 and have been put forward many years ago. Under special circumstances, these two things may also be the same thing. In addition to these two projects that have a clear time, there are also some possible goals that you can see in the 14th Five Year Plan, such as food security, economic inner circulation and the Belt and Road construction.
On the whole, these big strategic planning and layout have a similar feature, that is, the bottom line security. Whether it is economic, food, energy, and development space, these are basically based on security.
Then why is safety so important at this stage? This is inevitably related to the development of the international situation.
2022-2024, the world's difficult three years
It should be said that this change in the world situation makes people feel that the starting point is probably 2018. Before this, many things were under the table. But after the United States launched trade frictions in 2018, things came to the table. This is a matter of opening the bow without turning back, because the strategic intention has been completely open.
So although the president has changed, the route seems not to have changed much. What has changed is some tactics of struggle. It is estimated that the allies of the United States are a little confused. In fact, this is not to understand the sufferings of the United States. Since we have maintained good continuity in strategy, many things have been carried out steadily as planned, So the United States does not have a good way to stop us now, so we have to try here and there. On the contrary, it seems that the United States has no strategic determination.
Our strategic determination, especially in the promotion of key nodes, shows a huge advantage, because it will make opponents feel particularly afraid, just like a fortune teller who calculates that you will die at a certain time in a certain year, month, and month, and the people in front are all right. Are you afraid when it is your turn?
This is a feeling that the general situation has been set and the destiny is hard to be violated. It is like the mountain is overwhelming, and even the struggle seems particularly weak. So when our strategic upgrading plan for manufacturing industry was formulated, the United States was really under pressure, which was also a key point in the initial trade negotiations. But now the United States may have given up treatment, relying on sanctions to delay time. What's more, the United States has begun to develop infrastructure plans, and the US version of the Belt and Road Initiative, which makes people feel strange. Is this competition or plagiarism?
Everyone was very anxious and felt that the time was running out. There was a problem. It was the strategy that predicted the approaching of the turning point, which made us move forward with great strides; Or is it because we have achieved the goal at this strategic point according to the plan, so we want to make a transition? This may be a question that will never be answered. After all, the truth of history is only in history.
But from the current reality, especially in the financial cycle, the next three years are indeed the most complex and difficult three years, which lies in the global monetary policy and may be at the turning point of the transition from the easing cycle to the tightening cycle. People may not care about the easing and tightening of monetary policy, but history tells us that every turn of this cycle will bring huge turbulence.
Now, on the whole, the easing cycle of low interest rates in the United States has lasted for more than ten years since the subprime crisis in 2008. In addition, since last year, a round of super large release of water has made the world's biggest problem now, not how to release water to stimulate economic recovery, but how to prevent inflation.
Since this year, Brazil, Russia, Turkey and Ukraine have started to raise interest rates, of which Russia and Brazil have increased interest rates three times. Last week, Hungary, the Czech Republic and Mexico also joined in raising interest rates. In the second half of the year, more countries should start raising interest rates.
The reason why so many countries begin to raise interest rates, without exception, is because of inflation pressure, which will be a global problem, but the most worrying thing is that it will be a long-term problem. Once inflation is maintained for a long time, the United States will inevitably enter the interest rate increase cycle.
And the dollar tightening cycle will puncture the global asset bubble, which is a consensus for many years. No one can take chances. So in the next three years, 2022-2024, it will be difficult for the whole world. We cannot accurately predict the crisis, but we know that as long as this trend is formed, it may be sooner or later. Therefore, using bottom line thinking and pursuing security will naturally be the top priority.
The most important starting point of everything we do must be to ensure our own safety and minimize the impact of the crisis. It is difficult to determine whether or not the crisis will occur and in what form, but it is possible to make good preparations.
From the past history, after economic crisis, there will always be a serious social crisis, and social crisis will make populism rise. In order to shift the crisis, this will make the crisis spread into conflict between countries. Therefore, the only way to ensure strategic security is to prepare for the worst.
The selection of the time node of 2025, compared with the present, has obvious practical significance. It is not only a warning to oneself, but also a warning to adventurers.
The starting point of the new global order
As mentioned above, the first goal of our preparations must be to ensure our own safety. Of course, we also have a second goal. This is what we often call a crisis. There is always a danger. To ensure safety is to deal with danger. In addition, we should seize the opportunity.
What is this opportunity?
If the water release of this round of easing cycle is used to reverse, if the tightening cycle enters in the future, then how big the asset bubble blown by easing will be, and how much damage will be caused by tightening. At present, the debt scale of western developed countries is at an extremely high level, and raising interest rates is an unbearable thing for such a huge debt scale.
Without raising interest rates, the world is facing inflationary pressure, and people cannot live with rising prices. In fact, it corresponds to a social crisis. The asset bubble collapse caused by raising interest rates is an economic crisis. These two sides must have a choice, and behind this choice, for us, is an opportunity.
In the past financial cycle of the United States, the switch was in the hands of the Federal Reserve. The Federal Reserve decided when to increase interest rates and how much to increase. What exactly did it look at? Basically, the rhetoric is different each time, but the results are almost the same, basically until the crisis appears.
The biggest uncontrollable factor of possible future changes lies in our rise. The United States is not sure whether the crisis will occur first in other countries or in itself. If the crisis has little impact on us, then the United States will be very embarrassed. It is equivalent to a carefully brewed whirlwind leg. Instead of kicking people, it will kill itself first. When the United States became the dominant family, he got up and clapped his hands. But in this situation, the United States is not sure.
Many people are dissatisfied with the unreasonable world interest structure and international order. But as the largest vested interest, the United States not only has no incentive to reform, but also hopes to make it more unreasonable in order to safeguard its own interests. Therefore, if there is another global crisis, it is bound to be the time to make changes.
Of course, the United States does not want to change, but the change of relative strength has left it powerless. The internal contradictions were originally alleviated by external blood transfusion, and external blood transfusion will inevitably exacerbate the contradictions, leading to the outbreak of crisis, which will also inevitably exacerbate the internal contradictions. This dilemma is an inevitable outcome of the United States model, just like the host and host will die together.
Our cooperation model is just win-win, which is difficult to understand under the western dualistic thinking, but it is an innate skill for us. From this point of view, if there is a crisis before 2025, it is also time for the world to make changes. For us, on the whole, opportunities should outweigh risks, which would be a good starting point for the reconstruction of the new international order.
last
I am full of confidence in the realization of our strategic plan, because from the reality, especially in recent years, it has been proved time and time again that this major strategic promotion will basically achieve quality and quantity, so no matter how difficult the next few years are, we should see the goal of 2025.
We often hear about the century long changes in the world, which seem to be near and far away, but it is likely that changes have been carried out unconsciously. This epidemic, like this one, should be a change that will be recorded in the history of mankind, but its impact on us is really small, but it does not prevent it from accelerating the process of history.
Based on the law of trend development, it is likely that in the next few years, we will witness more symbolic quantitative changes. When these quantitative changes accumulate, qualitative changes may not be far away.
May we all be witnesses of this era.
