[Homeboy Finance | Face to face Experts] In the early morning of Thursday (23rd) Beijing time, the Federal Reserve announced the minutes of the FOMC policy meeting in April.The minutes show that the Federal Reserve is disappointed with the recent inflation data and is willing to consider raising interest rates again if there is no further cooling.Affected by this, the three major stock indexes of the United States collectively closed down, and the dollar index once rose to 105.
Tan Yaling, an independent economist at the China Foreign Exchange Investment Research Institute, believes that the inflation index of the United States should be an important reference data for the Federal Reserve not to cut interest rates. At present, the general inflation in the United States is 3.4% - 3.5%, while the core inflation is 3.6%, which is far from the target level of the Federal Reserve of 2%, and the future regulation will be more complex and difficult.
Tan Yaling mentioned that precious metal prices, commodity prices and shipping prices are rising, which is a very important aspect that the periphery may stimulate inflation in the United States.At the same time, the salary price and house price in the United States are still rising, and the service price is more likely to rise, especially the energy and oil prices in summer. The prosperity of transportation and tourism may be the parameters of the continued upward inflation in the United States.Therefore, the overwhelming majority of Federal Reserve officials still maintain the "hawkish" position and tone, and the prevention of inflation may be the main focus of the Federal Reserve this year.
Tan Yaling expressed that,At present, the inflation level in the United States has not reached the defined goal of the Federal Reserve, but the market is hyping the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates.Because according to the traditional logic, the current US dollar interest rate is too high, and interest rate reduction should be taken. However, from the perspective of the US economic structure, economic logic and economic form, the Federal Reserve still has great support for interest rate increase, and inflation is a very important reference data for the Federal Reserve to increase interest rates.
(Reporter Dong Xiangyi produced by Yu Kunhang Zhaiman Finance)
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