Author: Yu Fei
01
Wuhan Race
517 After the New Deal, a number of cities began to meet the requirements of the central government, reducing down payments and interest rates.
According to public reports, Wuhan took the lead in reducing the down payment and interest rate on May 20. Later, banks in Hefei, Changsha, Xi'an, Jinan, Kunming, Nanchang and other cities confirmed the implementation. More and more cities are implementing the new policy of "reducing the down payment ratio of first set of housing to 15%".
Other cities, such as Shenzhen and Guangzhou, have only stayed on the downpayment of individual buildings, and have not introduced measures for full implementation.
Wuhan is not only the first city to implement, but also the most thoroughly implemented city, which not only reduces the down payment, but also reduces the interest rate. Most other cities have only implemented measures to reduce the down payment, and the interest rate has not been lowered.
The down payment ratio of Wuhan's first house fell to 15%, and the commercial loan interest rate fell to 3.25%; The down payment ratio of second set of housing was reduced to 25%, and the commercial loan interest rate was reduced to 3.35%.
This means that Wuhan has not only significantly lowered the threshold for getting on the bus, but also significantly lowered the cost of housing loans.
Before the interest rate cut, in April, the real interest rate of Wuhan's first housing was about 3.55%, and that of the second housing was about 4.15%. This time, the real interest rate of the first housing loan was reduced by 30 BP compared with the previous period, and that of the second housing loan was reduced by 80 BP, the highest decline in history.
It can be said that Wuhan has made great efforts.
Let's calculate how much the cost can be saved after Wuhan reduces the down payment and interest rate at the same time with a house of 2 million yuan and 30 years of equal principal and interest.
Cartography: City Finance
If it is the first house, the monthly payment is higher than before, but the total cost of house purchase before the new policy is lower than after the new policy by 40000 yuan. If it is a second set of housing, the monthly supply is much lower, and the total cost of housing purchase is nearly 230000 yuan lower than before.
02
Take the lead in opening up the rear
Wuhan can be said to have truly achieved the goal of making people benefit, which is worthy of praise.
Such a strong concession will certainly promote the transaction of Wuhan's real estate market to some extent. At least, it will enable families in need and improvement families who continue to buy houses to accelerate the speed of getting on the bus.
This is also the purpose of Wuhan's substantial interest concessions.
The reason why Wuhan became the first city to land is the pressure behind it.
The second-hand housing in Wuhan is not particularly bad under the condition that the price is cut more than the new housing.
According to the survey data of Wuhan brokerage service platform and major brokerage institutions, there are 8304 second-hand housing transactions in the city, and the turnover has increased by 8.59% month on month. Judging from the transaction of Wuhan housing market, the market increased slightly in April.
It is all due to the reduction of price and interest.
However, due to the record price limit, the decline of new houses is not as large as that of second-hand houses, and the turnover has not improved.
According to the data disclosed by Wuhan Housing Administration Bureau, 6013 new houses were sold in Wuhan in March, down 59% year on year. A total of 14189 units were sold in the first quarter. The turnover in the whole quarter was not as high as that in March last year.
Cartography: urban finance and economics; Data: Wuhan Housing Administration Bureau
The turnover of new houses in April was only 4973, down 17.3% month on month and 36.6% year on year.
In the first four months of this year, Wuhan's monthly average turnover was 4790.5 sets. How about this data? Let's compare it with the past.
In 2016, the peak period, Wuhan sold 342600 commercial houses a year, with an average of 29000 per month.
Cartography: urban finance and economics; Data: Wuhan Housing Administration Bureau
In 2022, the turnover of commercial housing in Wuhan fell to 116300 units last year, with an average of 9692 units per month.
In 2023, 9156 sets will be sold every month on average. Obviously, the overall liberalization of purchase restrictions has not been able to support the Wuhan property market.
In 2024, the monthly average number of units in the first four months is only 4790.5. It is impossible for Wuhan not to worry.
What is more urgent is the inventory in Wuhan.
According to the latest data disclosed by Kerui, the narrow inventory of commercial residential buildings in Wuhan in April was 18.65 million square meters, ranking the first in China, with a 42 month cycle.
On the side of large inventory, it is difficult to sell houses at reduced prices.
Therefore, before the 517 New Deal, Wuhan made a big move to reduce the down payment for the second set of housing.
On May 6, Wuhan Housing Security and Housing Administration Bureau issued the Notice on Further Optimizing and Improving Policies and Measures to Promote the Steady and Healthy Development of the Real Estate Market in Wuhan, covering ten articles.
Source: Wuhan Housing Authority
The key one is:
A family who has only one house in Wuhan and is listing for sale will be recognized as the first house when handling the loan for a new personal commercial house.
This sentence is to directly reduce the down payment and interest rate for the second set of housing. On the one hand, it is convenient to improve demand, on the other hand, it is also encouraging the rich to buy more houses.
Because there is a lot of room for operation. For replacement demand, as long as your current house is listed, whether you sell it or not, buying a house is the down payment and interest rate standard for the first house.
For those who want to buy a second suite, the first suite does not need to be sold, and they can enjoy the policy of the first suite as long as it is listed.
In fact, this yield is very large. The down payment was reduced from 30% to 20%, and the interest rate was reduced from LPR+20 to LPR-40 by 60 basis points.
Take a 2 million yuan house in Wuhan. Before the policy was introduced, based on the second house policy, the down payment was 30%, namely 600000 yuan, the loan was 1.4 million yuan, the equal principal and interest were 30 years, the interest rate was 4.15%, and the monthly repayment was 6805 yuan.
After the New Deal, it is also a house of 2 million yuan, with a down payment of 20%, that is, 400000 yuan. The boarding threshold has been lowered. At the same time, the loan is 1.6 million yuan, equal principal and interest for 30 years, interest rate is 3.55%, and 6325.77 yuan.
After the change, the threshold and cost of buying a second suite have been reduced.
The reduction of down payment and interest rate on May 20 is based on this and continues to reduce the threshold for getting on the bus and the cost of buying houses.
03
517 Can the New Deal Change the Trend
Wuhan's measures to lower the threshold and interest rate will probably promote the turnover in May and June.
But sustainability remains to be seen.
After Wuhan, many cities have followed, and a large number of cities will follow in the coming week. As someone said, if any city does not produce detailed rules within a week, it is dereliction of duty.
The vast army of reducing down payment and interest rate is on the way.
Under the promotion of the new policy, the turnover of the central cities in the second quarter has picked up, which is the general trend.
Recently, a lot of buildings in Shenzhen and Guangzhou have been filled up for a long time.
But the sustainability needs to be discussed.
Looking at the rescue measures taken in the past two years, it is basically difficult to maintain for two months. At most two months of restlessness, it will return to calm and decline.
This is determined by the macro environment and the current situation of real estate.
Therefore, those who expect this big move to reverse the trend of housing prices should be cautious.
On the one hand, there is no motivation at all. The population is declining, the demand is declining, and the gap between low income and high housing prices is still there. The current situation of oversupply has not changed. Everything is showing that there is no basis for growth.
On the other hand, we can also see from the official actions and attitudes that there is no such meaning.
The purpose of the new round of big moves to rescue the market has not changed. It is still a war of defense, not a stimulus. It is to protect the old bottom assets of China's financial system.
At the same time of protecting the old bottom assets, establish new bottom assets of China's financial system.
As we all know, the underlying assets of China's financial system have always been land and houses.
Land and real estate are the underlying assets of credit, and credit generates a large number of deposits. They are the cornerstone of broad money and liquidity, the anchor of pricing financial assets (interest rates), and the credit foundation of the entire economic system.
However, with three years of major adjustment, the volume and price of real estate fell together, and the underlying assets were shaking.
The public account "Zhiben News Agency" gives the following opinions:
First, as the pricing anchor of the financial system, land and real estate prices fell, leading to the decline of financial asset prices and instability of the financial system; Second, as the collateral assets of the commercial banking system, the price of land and real estate fell, which led to the decline of commercial banks' ability to expand loans, triggered the reverse multiplier effect, accelerated the shrinkage of broad money and market liquidity, and even liquidity risks.
Therefore, to defend the old-fashioned assets is actually to start the battle of defending China's financial system.
So, where can we see that the country is reconstructing the underlying assets of the financial system? Aren't we continuing to support land and real estate as the underlying assets of the financial system?
The answer can be found in two aspects:
First, we can see from the perspective of debt issuance.
The increase of 1 trillion yuan of special treasury bonds last year and 1 trillion yuan of ultra long-term treasury bonds this year shows that China is trying to reshape the underlying assets of the financial system by issuing treasury bonds and putting risk-free assets into place of real estate to stabilize the financial system.
This model of underlying assets is also internationally common. At present, the underlying assets of the financial system of the world's developed economies are all government bonds.
The simple understanding is that in the past, our development model was to drive economic development with real estate, and promote people to buy houses to promote economy and consumption.
However, in the future, the country will increase leverage and issue national debt in the form of national credit endorsement, which will focus on the key tasks of accelerating the realization of high-level scientific and technological self-reliance, promoting the integrated development of urban and rural areas, promoting regional coordinated development, improving the ability to guarantee food and energy resources security, promoting high-quality population development, and comprehensively promoting the construction of a beautiful China.
Second, the general tone of "first stand, then break".
Last year, two important conferences set the tone for real estate, first established, then destroyed.
That is, it cannot be broken until it is erected. This not only reflects the determination to defend the old bottom assets of the financial system, but also shows the intention to give up the original dependence on the real estate economy.
The so-called "establishment" is to establish a new economic driving engine, a new real estate model and a new financial system.
The so-called "breaking" is mainly to break three points: 1. break the model of real estate driving economic development; 2. Break the dependence of the central and local governments on land finance; 3. Remove the hidden worry of high housing prices.
Therefore, from the perspective of the top-level strategy, the official signal seems to be saying that it is enough to ensure that there is no systemic crisis and let the house price continue to decline slowly.
Then, in the process of the continuous decline of real estate, we should adjust the economic structure to allow more funds to be invested in the technology industry, emerging industries, industries, and upgrade our manufacturing industry chain.
This idea just fits in with the essence of "first stand and then break". To establish the new is the purpose, and to break the old is also the purpose. To establish first and then break is the method and tactics.
