preface
With the end of the first quarter of 2024, all countries have announced their GDP in the first quarter. So far, the GDP data of the three major economies of China, the United States and Japan have been fully released.
However, the gap between the United States and Japan is like a precipice. In the first quarter, the United States exceeded $7 trillion and Japan only $1 trillion.
So, what is China's GDP in the first quarter of this year?
GDP of the United States in the first quarter
Since the end of the Second World War, large-scale wars no longer appear, so it is unrealistic to show a strong country through force.
Therefore, in the 20th century, there were many standards to measure the strength of a country, For example, computer technology, communication technology and chip technology are leading, which is certainly one of the standards to prove the strength of a country.
But it can not directly reflect the strength of a country, so there is a great invention in the 20th century, That is GDP, that is, the annual gross domestic product of a country.
Therefore, since the last century, GDP has been the core indicator for a country or region to reflect its national economic accounting, It is also an important indicator to measure the economic situation and development level of this country.
Therefore, at the end of each year, GDP becomes the most common word in news reports, Both countries and provinces want to know their own regional GDP.
The United States, as the world's largest economy, GDP ranks first all the year round, However, due to the current unstable global situation, The global economy has been hit hard, so the US GDP, as the largest economy, has attracted much attention.
On April 25 this year, the US Department of Commerce announced that The GDP in the first quarter was 707 million US dollars, Compared with the same period last year, Increased by 1.6%, The annual GDP reached 28.28 trillion US dollars.
With the global economy hit hard and wars happening frequently, it is not easy to grow. However, after the United States released its quarterly data for the first quarter, it attracted the attention of the global media.
In the first quarter of the United States, in addition to GDP growth, CPI (Consumer Price Index) also increased, CPI growth mainly reflects the price changes of consumer goods and services generally purchased by households.
In the first quarter, the US CPI grew by 3.48% year on year, which also met the US expectation of 3.4%, Compared with 3.15% last year, the purchasing power of American residents has increased.
Although the data looks good, the simultaneous growth of GDP and CPI means that the proportion of household expenditure has increased a lot, In other words, American products are more expensive.
As prices in the United States have become more positive, inflation has finally increased, and prices have also risen, The method of GDP statistics in the United States is the "expenditure method". The more expensive things residents buy, the higher the GDP will be.
Therefore, many economists say that the United States is now "spending more than it needs", but from the data point of view, the GDP of the United States has indeed increased a lot.
Although the rise in prices is indeed a rise, for the US expenditure method to calculate GDP, the factor of price rise is included in GDP statistics, We can get that the annual growth rate of US GDP is about 3%.
Therefore, the US economy does have a strong momentum of recovery, especially in Family living consumption and personal consumption have increased significantly, making GDP growth strong.
Although the GDP growth of the eldest brother is very strong, the life of the younger brother seems to be not so good. As the number one younger brother in the United States, Japan's GDO in the first quarter was not so good.
So, what was Japan's GDP in the first quarter?
Reference: China News Network, US Economic Growth Slows sharply in the First Quarter, US Media: Obvious Loss of Growth Momentum, April 26, 2024
China News Network, US Economic Growth Slows sharply in the First Quarter, US Media: Obvious Loss of Growth Momentum, April 26, 2024
GDP of Japan in the first quarter
For a long time, Japan has been the second largest economy in the world. The GDP of Japan, with only 100 million people, once reached 80% of that of the United States, and once overtook its big brother.
In 1989, 32 of the 50 companies with the highest incomes in the world were Japanese companies, Among them, Japan Telecom, Industrial Bank, Sumitomo Bank, Fuji Bank, and First Exploration Bank are among the top five in the world.
As a big brother in the United States, only one IBM was ranked seventh. At that time, the Japanese economy had expanded to the point where it could not expand, One Tokyo land, buy the whole America!
Moreover, Japanese enterprises are also very expansive, and the landmark building "Rockefeller Building" in New York has also been bought by Xiaori, Sony, Panasonic, Toshiba, Hitachi, Mitsubishi and the top ten electronic companies in the world are basically monopolized by Japan.
At that time, almost all electronic equipment came from Japanese companies, From walkmans and game consoles to refrigerators and televisions, they are basically "Japanese".
With the collapse of the Soviet Union, the United States finally got fed up and prepared to punish this little brother, Therefore, Japan was required to sign the "Plaza Agreement", "Japan US Semiconductor Treaty", "301 Investigation" and other agreements and sanctions.
But in fact, these treaties did not lead to the fall of Japanese electronics, which still developed rapidly, The main reason is that the "technology tree" is wrong, In the 21st century, no matter in the fields of computers, software, smart phones, new energy vehicles, That's not a strong point.
When China surpasses GDP, Japan can explain that it is normal for more Chinese people to surpass Japan, But last year Japan was overtaken by Germany, whose population was only two-thirds of Japan's, Japan was completely silent, It will be surpassed by India in two years.
The Japanese cabinet announced on May 16 that the GDP in the first quarter of 2024 would fall to 1008.2 billion US dollars, In the same period last year, Japan's GDP was still 1074.04 billion dollars, so Japan's GDP dropped significantly.
In addition to the economic reasons of Japan itself, another reason is that Japan continues to be the first country in the United States, because the exchange rates of Japan and the US dollar continue to plummet, As a result, Japan's GDP continued to decline and was ruthlessly exceeded by Germany in the first quarter.
After excluding the factors of price changes, the real GDP decreased by 0.5% month on month and 2.0% year on year, After a quarter, it showed negative growth again.
So, as a China that has surpassed Japan for many years, how about its GDP in the first quarter of 2024?
Reference: Guangming.com, Japan's GDP in Q1 fell 2.0% year on year or was affected by Toyota scandal, earthquake, etc., April 16, 2024
Guangming.com, Japan's GDP in Q1 fell 2.0% year-on-year or was affected by Toyota scandal, earthquake, etc., April 16, 2024
China's GDP in the first quarter
On April 16, China's gross domestic product in the first quarter was also announced for preliminary accounting, China's GDP in the first quarter was 29629.9 billion yuan, It increased by 5.3% year on year, 1.6% higher than last year's fourth quarter
It can be said that China's economic growth is very strong. In recent years, it has basically been in a strong growth state, which also benefits from China's all-round balanced development.
Therefore, in the first quarter of this year, China's GDP totaled 2.962 billion yuan, Converted into USD 417 million, Among them, China's primary industry increased by 3.3%, which is the natural resources industry, including agriculture and fishery, It reached 1153.8 billion yuan.
The secondary industry is China's industrial industry, In the first quarter of this year, the GDP reached 10984.6 billion yuan, It increased by 6.0% year on year, It can be seen that China's industrial development is also very rapid, which belongs to a high growth state.
The tertiary industry refers to all industries except the primary industry and the secondary industry, which can also be called the service industry, In the first quarter, the absolute value reached 17491.5 billion yuan, up 5.0% year on year.
Moreover, the growth of information transmission, software and information technology service industries in China is the largest, It has reached 13.7%. It seems that high-tech talents are still very popular.
Therefore, we can see that China's GDP growth in the first quarter of this year is still very high, and all industries are at the growth level, Industry and service industry go hand in hand, and the growth of high-tech industries is very obvious.
Even so, the GDP gap between China and the United States is still large, In the first quarter of this year, it was only 59% of the US GDP.
However, by 2021, China's GDP will have reached about 80% of that of the United States, and China's GDP is also growing at a high speed.
But why is the gap between China and the United States growing?
Reference: National Bureau of Statistics, First Quarter National Economy Achieves a Good Start, April 16, 2024
Why is the gap between the United States and China growing?
First of all, China's economy is indeed in a state of high growth, but there are other factors that lead to the growing gap in GDP. Of course It is not because the GDP of the United States is growing faster than that of China, which is unlikely.
From the data of 2023, China's The annual GDP was 126 trillion yuan, The year-on-year growth rate was 5.2%, which was a high growth state and converted into US $17.89 trillion, About 65% of the US
In 2022, China The annual GDP was 120 trillion yuan, Due to the impact of the epidemic, the economy slowed down, but still reached 3% growth rate. The United States was $25.44 trillion, which was converted into $180000 at the average dollar exchange rate in 2022, It is about 70% of that of the United States.
In 2021, China's GDP will be 17.82 trillion US dollars, while that of the United States will be 23.32 trillion US dollars, It is about 77% of the US GDP.
Based on the above data, I believe some readers have found the "trick", that is, China's GDP in 2021 will be 17.82 trillion dollars, After several years of rapid growth in China, China's GDP in 2023 has barely increased, only 17.89 trillion US dollars.
That is to say, China's economy, which has been growing at a high speed for several years, has not changed at all when converted into dollars, but China's GDP has indeed risen a lot.
In fact, This is the power of the "dollar hegemony", Passed by the United States in 2022 The Federal Reserve raised interest rates on the US dollar, which promoted the economic growth of the United States. By raising interest rates on the US dollar, it prevented inflation and economic overheating in the United States. At the same time, it also attracted global capital into the US market, causing the US dollar exchange rate to soar.
So the exchange rate of the US dollar is from 6.3 yuan in 2021, up to 7.3 yuan today, Because the growth of the US dollar exchange rate leads to more capital flowing into the US market, this is the power of the US dollar hegemony.
When the global situation is unstable and the economy is bad, the risk aversion of capital will increase, As the global currency, the dollar is a relatively safe asset, so more capital flows into the United States.
Many of Japan's funds have flowed into the United States, which is currently the country with the highest holdings of U.S. government bonds, At the same time, the yen also accelerated its depreciation, even falling to the exchange rate of 1 to 158, which also brought pressure to the Japanese economy.
But at present, the US dollar interest rate hike has great advantages, but its side effects are also great. First, it will destroy economic growth and increase the unemployment rate. The unemployment rate in the United States has indeed been increasing, and the phenomenon of zero yuan buying is also very common.
The risk of debt default increases, asset bubble bursts, economic recession, and debt collapse The US dollar interest rate hike not only affects the US local economy, but also has an impact on the global economy because of the existence of the US dollar hegemony.
Reference: Hunan Daily, The US Dollar Hegemony "Harvests" Global Wealth, Financial Turbulence Caused by the Strong Interest Rate Increase of the Federal Reserve, June 14, 2026
epilogue
Therefore, in the current situation of global economic slowdown and global instability, it is not easy to achieve economic growth, and China's growth in the first quarter of this year is also remarkable.
And the GDP statistics methods between China and the United States are also different, which will further widen the GDP gap between China and the United States, but this is not good. As long as China takes its own road, speeds up industrial upgrading, and joint development of high industry, industry, high precision, and agriculture is the way for China!
