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Biden didn't scare China. The PLA is still active. Does the United States want to adjust the "One China" policy? If the PLA attacks Taiwan, does the United States intend to make a "military response"? In the face of the tangled Taiwan Strait, China needs to do three things well!
For China US relations at this stage, the Taiwan Strait issue is undoubtedly the "ultimate issue" concerning the final destiny of the two countries. Since Lai Qingde won the election in Taiwan in January this year, both China and the United States have been worried about what the "Taiwan independence golden grandson" will do when he delivers his inaugural speech at 520, so that when Secretary of State Lincoln of the United States visits China, he should send a warning to the mainland, asking the mainland not to "act rashly" around 520, The United States will keep an eye on the "every move" of the mainland.
However, from a practical point of view, the biggest risk of the Taiwan Strait issue is probably not Taiwan, but the United States. In the past decades, the one China principle has been the cornerstone of the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and the United States, and also has the UN Resolution 2758 as the legal basis. However, these "ballast stones" have been greatly loosened in recent years.
Pelosi's visit to Taiwan in 2022 broke the promise that the United States and Taiwan would not develop "official relations" in the past. The gradual increase in arms sales to Taiwan over the years turned a blind eye to the "August 17 Communiqu é". The possibility that China and the United States would eventually slip into the abyss of war has become increasingly strong, and there is a big sign of uncontrollable.
According to the report of Zhongshi News Network, on May 1, the Indian Pacific Panel of the House of Representatives of the United States Congress held a hearing, and the Assistant Secretary of State for Asia Pacific Affairs of the United States State Department Kang Da accepted questions. Barr, a senator from Kentucky, said that the current series of measures taken by the Biden government had failed to deter China, because "intrusion actions" were on the increase. After the San Francisco meeting between Chinese and American leaders, the activities of the PLA around the Taiwan Strait became more frequent, 72 in January, 86 in February, and 139 in March, Obviously, China has not been "scared" by Biden's tough remarks, which have not worked, and the fact is moving in the opposite direction.
Later, Barr asked Kangda, and President Biden said several times that if there was a conflict in the Taiwan Strait, the United States would respond by force. Does this mean that the U.S. strategy for Taiwan has gone from "vague" to "clear"? Kangda said that the United States' position and policy on Taiwan remained the same, and the United States' "one China" policy remained unchanged, which was also mentioned repeatedly by the President of the United States.
But this view was refuted by another Democratic senator, Connolly, who was present. Connolly said that perhaps these remarks were made out of a script, but President Biden has clearly expressed his intention that if Taiwan is "attacked without cause", the United States may carry out a "military response". The United States State Department should listen to what the President said, Because this is actually "very helpful" and can make Beijing "think more".
From the perspective of these dialogues, it seems to be a trivial "word game", but it is enough to show how dangerous the Taiwan issue is when it is put on the hearing of the US Congress in such a grand manner. At the meeting, many Democratic senators held on to Biden's statement of "protecting Taiwan by force" and tried to make the State Department make a similar statement, but Nehe Kangda was "not on board" and reiterated the "one China" policy of the United States.
This shows that although the "one China" policy of the United States has not changed at this stage, it does not mean that there will be no change in the future, because in the perception of these American legislators, the United States' China policy today is "ineffective" and cannot play a role in curbing the PLA's activities in the Taiwan Strait. Instead, it should change its position from "vague" to "clear", Directly release the signal of "Taiwan protection" from the US military to China.
This behavior seems to be able to solve the Taiwan Strait crisis, but in fact it is a "bottom line" that does not play any role. As far as the current Sino US relations are concerned, there is still a certain "political tacit understanding" on the Taiwan issue. The United States has repeatedly reiterated its position of not supporting "Taiwan independence", which is to pressure Lai Qingde not to make any political provocations when he delivers his inaugural speech at 520.
At the same time, the "fuzzy" strategy also gives the United States more choices. Under the general background of "something is happening in Taiwan", the United States can choose to send troops or not to send troops, or even the "no guns, no people" between the two, and follow the "Ukraine model" at this stage. This is also the "suggestion" of many American think tanks, not seeking to defeat the PLA in Taiwan, but seeking to prolong the war, Force the PLA to invest more human and material resources.
However, once the United States changes from "vague" to "clear", its position on the Taiwan issue will be directly "sit dead" and it must make corresponding choices. If, as Biden said, the United States responds by military means when "Taiwan is in trouble", the consequences will be unimaginable, ranging from breaking off diplomatic relations between China and the United States, causing local military friction, to starting three wars, and eventually escalating into a nuclear war. But this is not in the interests of both China and the United States. China has always stressed to the United States that nuclear war cannot be fought, There is "no winner" in nuclear war.
However, on the other hand, the confrontation of this hearing also proves from the side that there are many politicians in the United States who are eager to actively upgrade the Taiwan Strait issue, and regard the Taiwan Strait as the "main battlefield" of the China US game, supplemented by a series of policies to "catalyze confrontation" and try to set off a new "cold war", which must be highly vigilant.
In the face of the real threat of the Taiwan Strait issue, I think what China needs to do is mainly focused on the following aspects.
First, we should accelerate the formation of the PLA's new quality combat effectiveness, and demonstrate the "determination" to safeguard national sovereignty and territorial integrity in the Taiwan Strait region with a more firm stance.
Second, promote the establishment of a unified domestic market, improve the ability to resist risks and internal circulation, and prepare for the possible "showdown" between China and the United States in the future.
Third, we should make in-depth contact with the political and business circles of the United States, and try to curb the "anti China wave" sweeping across the United States through non-governmental exchanges, so as to avoid anti China being marked as "politically correct" by unscrupulous politicians.
In essence, China and the United States have natural complementarities in their industrial structures, and the United States also needs Chinese enterprises to settle in and reorganize its manufacturing industry. However, a series of American politicians are "confrontation in their heads" and trapped in the "Thucydides trap". What China can do is to persuade them when they need to. If they can't persuade them, they can only stop them.
