US think tank: 150 bombers with 2200 anti-ship missiles, winning 92% over China

Recently, CSIS, an American think-tank, released a detailed report on war games. The war games mainly revolved around the outbreak of war between China and the United States over the Taiwan issue. A total of 24 war games were held before and after.

The final report shows that the United States has won 21 of the 24 contests with absolute advantage in this positive contest between China and the United States, and even won the victory when the United States came back in full defeat. Therefore, CSIS believes that if there is a war between China and the United States on the Taiwan issue, the probability of the United States winning is 92%.

Obviously, this conclusion is controversial, which can be seen from the background of the war game and the battle. According to US media reports, a large number of members of the US Congress participated in the war game. In the context of "anti China" becoming the absolute political correctness in the US political arena, the result of the war game is not surprising.

However, the problem is that it is obviously unscientific for the United States to break out a frontal conflict within 300 kilometers of China's coastline, and the United States can achieve a 92% victory rate. There are only two kinds of results to achieve this data. One is to fake the data in the war game, and the other is to use a combat mode favorable to the United States.

Data fraud is obviously not the best choice. After all, there are so many eyes staring at it. If you don't pay attention, it will cause a fraud scandal. So the latter is the best choice. Then the question arises. How did the United States achieve such a high victory rate?

In the scenario designed by CSIS, China decided to unify Taiwan by force and the United States intervened by force. However, the place of engagement is not near the Taiwan Sea, but in the Western Pacific Ocean, 2000 kilometers away from the mainland of China.

For this reason, CSIS also gives a reason that it thinks it is justified. Since China's Dongfeng 21D and Dongfeng 26 have ultra long range ballistic anti-ship capabilities, American aircraft carriers can only guarantee absolute security 2000 kilometers away from China's coastline, so it is not a good option for aircraft carrier fleet to enter the first island chain, so CSIS adopts an asymmetric way. For example, 150 B52 and B1B bombers in active service in the United States, carrying 2200 ultra long range anti-ship missiles with a range of 1900 kilometers under development, take off from Hawaii or the United States mainland, and in the western Pacific Ocean, the PLA warships assembled near the Taiwan Sea can be fatally hit, and then the PLA landing battle will be forced to stop. However, the operational range of China's shore based aviation forces is only 2000 kilometers at most, so these US bombers will not be threatened in any way.

It can be basically confirmed that CSIS carried a large number of private goods in the war game play, which made the play result develop in favor of the United States. Therefore, a large number of media are skeptical of this conclusion. Even the US media questioned the results of the war game. The US military expert Odessas said directly that CSIS did not know about China at all. If the US fights with China in this way, it will definitely lose. Therefore, this kind of war game is just for fun, and it has no practical significance.

However, before that, the war game of the United States had some reference significance. For example, in January, the report of the US RAND Think Tank on the war game exercise reached a much more objective result. RAND Think Tank believes that if a conflict breaks out between China and the United States around Taiwan, the United States is likely to pay the price of 500 aircraft and two aircraft carrier battle groups, and the United States is likely to fail in this war. Even if the United States Navy is strong enough, it cannot completely avoid the attack of the PLA's shore based anti-ship missiles. This means that no matter how many aircraft carrier battle groups the United States comes, it will be directly exposed to the PLA's firepower coverage.

In a word, from the current level of military development between China and the United States, although Taiwan plays an important role in the U.S. Indo Pacific strategy, the United States has no capital to fight for Taiwan. The fundamental reason is that Taiwan is so close to China that it is hard for the US military to reach it.

Moreover, the United States has no reason to protect the authorities. It should be clear that Taiwan is just a pawn used by the United States to contain and suppress China. The main reason why the United States frequently makes a fuss on the Taiwan issue is that the PLA has made extra demands on the Taiwan issue, or the cost to the United States is not big enough, which is too big for the United States to bear.

On the other hand, if the United States really maintains its absolute military advantage over China's mainland in the Taiwan Strait, the "strategic ambiguity" policy of the United States has long been abandoned by the White House, and then it adopts a "clear" policy towards Taiwan. After all, if Taiwan is forcibly separated from China by force, the United States can build Taiwan into an unsinkable aircraft carrier, It has become a strategic fulcrum for military suppression and containment of China. So this report of CSIS, just look at it.