The "illusion" of exit

• Too long to see:
• Since the beginning of the year, the market's recognition of export recovery has become stronger and stronger, and the surge of export chains such as household appliances in the capital market has strengthened this consensus. From the performance of household appliance leaders, more contributions come from export, but export may rely on the results of earlier "cultivation", which does not directly reflect the recovery of exports.
• In addition, in the current growth of China's exports, the price contribution is higher than the quantity contribution, which also casts a question mark on the quality of export recovery.
• Since 2020, the U.S. furniture and household appliances industry has experienced a complete inventory cycle, which is still at the bottom of the inventory cycle. If the pace of industry replenishment is smooth in the future, it may bring more convincing benefits to exports. However, the recovery of American real estate and the decline of inflation still need to be observed, and the tariff and geopolitical situation will also bring additional uncertainty.