Author: Leader of the retrograde fast
According to the comprehensive media, on May 10, thousands of Russian troops launched a fierce offensive at the northeastern border of Ukraine, firing artillery at many towns and villages, and occupying more than 200 square kilometers of land, which is the largest war progress of the Russian army in the past 18 months.
The trend of this war is worrying. The offensive of the Russian army seems to be unstoppable, and the losses of the Ukrainian army are also increasing.
The Russian army launches another offensive in Kharkov
More than two years ago, at the end of February 2022, the Russian army was divided into at least four forces, attacking Kiev, Kharkov, and the eastern and southern regions of Ukraine at the same time, trying to seek quick victory through Blitzkrieg. However, the Russian army was eager to win, but failed to reach its goal, and had to withdraw from around Kiev and Kharkov.
More than two years later, the smoke of gunpowder reappeared in Kharkov. On May 10, the Russian army crossed the border again and launched a heavy armored and infantry raid on Kharkov. It went deep into Ukraine from 5 to 10 kilometers everywhere. After encountering the first defense line of the Ukrainian army, the speed of advance slowed down. The Russian army has deployed at least 35000 people here, and may increase to 50000 to 70000 people. Ukraine should build three defense lines from Kharkov to the northeast border. The first is not close to the border, but 12 to 13 kilometers away from the border; So the Russian army made progress easily. In the past week, the two sides have been fighting fiercely.
The current strength of the Russian army is not enough to quickly advance to Kharkov City, but if the Russian army continues to advance to 20 kilometers away from Kharkov City, the range of its artillery and rockets will be enough to bombard Kharkov City. The Russian army is now about 30 kilometers away from the suburb of Kharkov. If the Ukrainian army fails to defend the first line, the second line will still try to keep the Russian army 20 kilometers away from Kharkov.
Russian missiles and drones will strike Kharkov at any time. Ukraine is requesting more air defense system assistance from the United States and NATO. Russian warplanes can launch missiles or drop glide bombs without crossing the border. Ukraine not only needs the United States' patriot air defense missiles, but also needs the United States to allow Ukraine to use patriot missiles to strike fighters in Russia. The United States has not yet relaxed this restriction. The Ukrainian army is under great pressure.
The Russian army needs more troops to attack the city
The Russian army itself estimated that it would take 300000 more people to complete the encirclement of Kharkov. About 35000 Russian troops entering the Kharkov area could hardly pose a major threat. Even if the number of people increased to 50000 to 70000, the goal of capturing Kharkov City could not be achieved.
At present, the Russian army has about 510000 troops in Ukraine, but it is hard to imagine giving up the offensive in eastern Ukraine and transferring about 60% of its troops to Kharkov.
Kharkov is close to the border between Russia and Ukraine. In theory, the Russian army can attack from the north, but there is no effective support point for the Russian army in the surrounding areas; If you drive straight in, the flanks are vulnerable to attack. Therefore, the capture of Kharkov by the Russian army is not simple. It requires a large number of troops to cover each other, step by step on a wide front, and advance to the suburbs of the city as a whole. Only then can the conditions for attacking the city be met.
At the end of February 2022, the Russian army had already performed the operation version of "deep going alone", and had sent some elite airborne troops to make a surprise attack. But after all, it was difficult to stand alone. Although it posed a threat to Kharkov, it was unable to seize the city, and the supply line was constantly harassed, so it had to give up and withdraw its troops. After heavy losses, the Russian offensive troops on this route returned to Russia for rest. It is said that they failed to re-enter the Ukrainian battlefield for a long time.
Even if the Russian army can really mobilize 300000 troops to besiege Kharkov, it still needs to re-establish the supply line, and the Ukrainian army will also send additional troops to help, and the main battlefield of both sides will no longer be the eastern region. If the main force of the Russian army in the eastern part of Ukraine is transferred, it will be difficult to maintain the current offensive, and the defense in the east and south may face difficulties, which is equal to creating opportunities for Ukraine to counter attack locally.
The transfer of 300000 troops is by no means easy. The main force of the Russian army should first be transferred back home, and then re-enter Ukraine from the north. The Russian army has occupied part of the eastern part of Ukraine, which has become a continuous area. However, it is far from Kharkov, so the risk of direct attacks is great. It is almost impossible to ensure the safety of the flanks, and it is even more difficult to establish a safe supply line. If the Russian army can really make a big breakthrough from the east, it may not be necessary to open up the Kharkov front. The current situation is that the Russian army is difficult to break through quickly on any front.
If the Russian army is ready to besiege Kharkov, it will completely disrupt the current deployment of troops, which is equivalent to completely changing the strategic focus of eastern Ukraine. If the Russian army has to struggle so hard, it will not be able to maintain its advantage in eastern Ukraine. It may not be able to attack in Kharkov for a long time. Otherwise, the initiative in the battlefield will change hands and fall into a dilemma.
For the time being, the Russian army may only intend to continue to exert additional pressure on Ukraine's defense line, lengthen the front, and make Ukraine's limited troops and equipment stretched. The Russian army should also be trying to protect the city of Belgorod and prevent the Ukrainian supported Russian uprising corps from attacking the city of Belgorod again by taking offense as defense. First, establish the defense line in Ukraine, and then look for opportunities to attack.
Ukraine's defense becomes more difficult
The battle line between Russia and Ukraine has reached 1200 kilometers. The Russian army has the military advantage, takes the initiative, and is attacking from multiple directions. The new Kharkov offensive makes it more difficult for Ukraine to allocate its forces.
The Ukrainian military said that it had deployed the reserve team in the northern part of Kharkov State to defend the Russian offensive. The Ukrainian army is starting to form 10 new brigades as soon as possible to cope with the Russian army's summer offensive in 2024. The Ukrainian military also said that the main bottleneck of the current defense operations is still the assistance of military equipment, followed by military strength. In fact, Ukraine needs both sustained assistance from NATO and an increase in troops as soon as possible.
The Ukrainian military estimates that the war in the next two months will enter a critical stage. The Russian army will still focus on attacking Lugansk and Donetsk in the east, and may expand its operations in Kharkov, and may also attack Sumei in the northeast. Ukraine's defense line may be overwhelmed.
It is believed that some Russian troops attacking Kharkov may not have very high combat effectiveness, which may give Ukrainian troops a little respite.
On May 10, the United States announced a new batch of US $400 million in military assistance, including Patriot and other anti-aircraft missiles, Hemas rocket ammunition, 105 mm and 155 mm shells, armored vehicles and anti tank missiles. The shortage of Ukrainian artillery shells should be alleviated. The seahorse rockets should be able to make a fresh start, and a large number of unmanned aerial vehicles can continue to destroy the Russian armored forces; However, after the battle line is further extended, the shortage of troops is still a major problem.
Moscow abacus
Russian President Putin claimed that Russia has no plan to occupy Kharkov at present, and said that the Russian army launched a ground attack on northeastern Ukraine last week to prevent Ukrainian troops from shelling Russian areas across the border. Create a "safe zone" for Russia's security.
Putin, who was re elected president, recently replaced the defense minister. Andrei Belousov, who has no military background but is good at economy, took office. He said that the "most urgent problem" is to continue to supply modern equipment, ammunition, communication equipment, unmanned aerial vehicles and electronic warfare systems, and continue to recruit soldiers.
Moscow is preparing for a protracted war in Ukraine and may be ready for future confrontation with NATO. The Kremlin may realize that the summer offensive in 2024 may not be enough to bring Ukraine to its knees. The Kremlin uses economic figures to control the Ministry of Defense, which obviously has encountered many economic problems.
It is estimated that Moscow believes that Ukraine has no ability to counter attack, and the Russian army's attack is slowly encroaching on Ukrainian territory, but the Kremlin may be a little impatient, hoping that the attack against Kharkov can expand the battlefield advantage and consume Ukrainian troops faster.
The US presidential election is still six months away. If Trump is back in charge of the White House, it may promote the Russia Ukraine negotiations. Moscow urgently needs more chips to break through Ukraine's defense line as soon as possible and seize as much land as possible. The broader action of the Russian army tried to make the Ukrainian army care about one thing and lose another, and finally forced Ukraine to completely give up the counter attack, and had to go to the negotiation table on the premise of accepting the status quo.
How long can the war machine run?
After obtaining 3 million shells from North Korea, the Russian army can launch 15000 to 20000 shells every day, and 3 million shells should last for 7 months at most. But this is the old stock of North Korea before, and it is hard to continue to supply such a large quantity. In 2023, Russia will produce about 2 million 122 mm and 152 mm shells, which will only take 4-5 months at most. The Russian army must significantly increase its output, or it will also face a shortage of ammunition after 2024. This is one of the reasons why the United States hopes that Ukraine will spare no effort to hold on to 2024. It is expected that the overall ammunition production of NATO will surpass that of Russia in 2025.
Russia has a bigger bottleneck in missile production, so it has produced a large number of UAVs, which have already been used to attack Ukraine's infrastructure, and are now more used in the front line. With the huge inventory of the former Soviet Union, Russia's armored vehicles can theoretically support another year and a half, provided that these weapons can still be used and can be repaired and renewed in time.
The Russian army has opened up a new front in Kharkov and launched the summer offensive. The Ukrainian army is facing greater pressure, but it is very difficult for the Russian army to seize the second largest city in Ukraine. Improper operation may lead to the same mistakes. Ukraine needs foreign assistance to maintain resistance, and Russia can hardly fight for a long time on its own. The two sides have no intention to retreat for the time being, and the war of attrition will continue until one side can't bear it or neither side can.
The final result: Russia will definitely lose
The Russia Ukraine war is fought in the heart of Europe. The European Union, the United States, and even the entire West can only support Ukraine in this way, and must win. Even a draw is unacceptable, or the Western dominated international order established after World War II will inevitably collapse. This is also the reason why Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand and other Asia Pacific countries all support Ukraine. If Ukraine fails to survive, NATO will not be ruled out.
Russia will certainly fail in its confrontation with the whole western society by itself. You and I will see it in our lifetime.
