2024 is really an eventful year.
Today the world is shocked: Iranian President Lehi, Foreign Minister Abdullahian and two provincial governors were killed in the crash at the same time.
The Iranian authorities borrowed an unmanned reconnaissance aircraft from Turkey, and it took 12 hours to find the place.
It was finally confirmed that no bones were found.
Scared, Israel made a statement: Israel has nothing to do with the Iranian president's plane crash.
To tell the truth, the second in command of a nuclear power has lost contact, and can find it for so long
I always feel weird.
Mechanical failure? Bad weather? Enemy assassination There are all kinds of guesses.
No one has any evidence at present.
The only thing is certain: the people who want to die are not only outside Iran.
01 Jiatianxia? Public?
What is happening in Iran now cannot be separated from religion.
Persians are a branch of Aryan people who believe in Zoroastrianism. The Persian civilization they established is the first great empire across three continents in history.
In the 7th century, Muslims conquered the Persian Plateau by force and forced Persians to convert to Islam.
At that time, shortly after Muhammad's death, all believers quarreled over the issue of heirs.
Most people believe that the Prophet had no designated successor, so it should be based on the doctrine that everyone has the opportunity to ascend.
They are the origin of Sunnis.
The other group insists on the theory of blood lineage, and believes that Muhammad appointed his cousin Ali as the successor, so no one except the Prophet and Ali's descendants is qualified to inherit.
These people are the origin of Shi'ism.
It is obvious that the Shi'ites are still the same as the family, and the audience is naturally less than the Sunnis, so they have always been the suppressed minority.
But this one is very popular with Persians!
For one thing, Persia has a glorious imperial history. For more than a thousand years, the people themselves attach great importance to "orthodoxy" and bloodline.
Second, Persians are far superior to Arabs who just walked out of the peninsula in terms of civilization and historical heritage, and they are certainly not willing to accept.
The more repressed and minority, the more popular they are.
As a result, many Persians chose to believe in the Shi'ites with tragic feelings as the spiritual banner against foreign aggression.
Especially after the Safi dynasty of Persia declared Shi'ism as the state religion, the Iranian plateau became the spiritual home of Shi'ism all over the world.
The impact of this incident on Iran has continued to this day.
Distribution of Islamic sects
Iran, whose full name is the Islamic Republic, elects its president by democracy, and then administers the country in accordance with the Islamic Shariah.
But because religion is greater than the country, the supreme power is in the hands of the religious leader Khamenei, and the president is just a puppet.
Khamenei, a disciple of Khomeini, has ruled Iran for 43 years since 1981.
Now, he is 85 years old, and who will take over has become the most urgent problem.
Relations with the United States, Israel and Saudi Arabia are of no importance.
At present, there are two people with the highest voice. The current President Leahy, the second son Mojitaba.
In the eyes of many people, President Leahy, who just died in the crash, is the successor of Ali Khamenei.
But he never said anything himself.
After all, whether in accordance with the Shiite tradition or out of selfishness, he certainly wanted his son to succeed to the throne.
Because his mentor Khomeini had the same idea.
Khomeini has two sons.
The eldest son, Mustafa, has profound knowledge. He was once a great priest of Islam. He has high prestige and is undoubtedly the "prince".
Unfortunately, in the late 1970s, he was assassinated by spies in Iraq.
The second son Ahmed, who is dedicated to facing his father, opposes the integration of politics and religion, advocates secularization, and often openly expresses democracy and free speech.
No matter how much Khomeini has ideas, it is impossible to hold an unbeliever as a religious leader
There was no way but to settle for the second place. Khomeini passed the throne to the most determined disciple Khamenei before he died.
Khamenei is luckier than his mentor.
His son Mojitaba not only did not die young, but also did not have the kind of "deviant" thought.
There is a key point that needs to be mentioned.
Because of the emphasis on "orthodoxy", the supreme leader in Iran must represent the most authoritative doctrine of the Shi'ites.
Who can understand the most authoritative doctrine? Only the personal disciples and sons of the Supreme Leader.
However, the disciple passed on personally is still inferior to his son because his bloodline is not "orthodox" enough.
Of course, even if it is orthodox, you must have the ability.
In 2009, after the general election in Iran, unrest broke out, and it was Mojitaba who brought people to calm down.
At least he is not an incompetent person.
Therefore, although Mojataba is not famous, he is very popular within the clerical group, and many people support his next leader.
Khamenei has also started layout for a long time.
As early as 2020, he handed over part of the country's rights to his son, who was in charge of the security work.
In February this year, Khamenei also cleaned up the "expert committee" for electing the supreme leader, and 35 of the 88 members were retired.
The principle is that, "The older clergy should give young people opportunities"
In terms of force, let alone the Revolutionary Guard, it is only loyal to the Supreme Leader. As long as Khamenei says one word, Mojataba can immediately have this huge force.
With the support of the clergy, Mojitaba's advantage seems unshakable.
But the problem is that as the president, Lech has a very high reputation in China, and is obedient to Khamenei's words, and resolutely suppresses the reformers.
In this case, it is almost impossible to replace him by political means.
Of course, Khamenei has the right to appoint an heir by force, but some people will inevitably refuse to obey the overlord.
It would be perfect if Leahy suddenly died unexpectedly at this time. He could also let the Empire be the backer.
It should be emphasized that the above contents are all guesses, and there is no evidence.
Perhaps all the truth will not come to light until the successor of Iran's supreme leader is determined.
Maybe there will never be truth.
02 Dragon Slayer Becomes a Evil Dragon
In addition to the dispute over successors, there are more contradictions within Iran.
In 2012, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said helplessly in his speech: 300 priests control 60% of Iran's wealth.
Iran's exports of oil, natural gas and minerals alone can generate hundreds of billions of dollars of foreign exchange every year.
However, the monthly income of the working class is less than 2000 yuan, and they are very poor in the face of inflation rate of more than 40%.
It's even worse for people who don't work. In order to eat, we have to sell organs. There are advertisements everywhere.
All this can not help but make people confused about the original choice.
In 1997, Iran legalized organ trading
The ancient imperial civilization and the new religion fermented each other. As time passed, the Persian society gradually formed a special Olama group.
Refers to priests who can interpret scriptures and have profound knowledge, including imams, mullahs, grand ayatollahs, etc.
According to the thinking mode of Chinese people, they can be understood as: The combination of landlord and scholar bureaucrat is the most basic unit of Persian traditional society.
According to the regulations, Oulema is responsible for issuing orders to the lower believers and answering their questions. In return, low rank believers should pay tribute to them.
In the vast rural areas, each village has one or two Olema. They not only have a strict relationship between teachers and heirs, but also form a tangled network of relationships through marriage.
They override the royal power, control justice, economy, education, and control a large amount of land, manors, temples and other wealth.
In 1963, according to the statistics of the Pahlavi Dynasty at that time: There are 27 large landlords with more than 2000 villages.
Poverty limits my imagination! How much arable land is there in 2000 villages?
In sharp contrast: Of the 3.98 million rural households nationwide, only 1.9 million own land, and the rest are tenants.
The priests are the real masters of this country.
In 1925, with the support of the British, Risa Khan established the Pahlavi Dynasty and changed the country name from Persia to Iran.
Iran means Aryan.
It can be seen from the name of the country that he did not want to be ridden by divine power, but emphasized the nation.
He emulated Kemal, the father of Turkey, and vigorously pursued secularization reform: Control church property, establish a secular national education system, and implement a secular judicial system
However, the status of the clergy was deeply rooted, and these measures could not go deep into the rural grassroots.
In 1941, the British and Soviet armies arrested and exiled the old Pahlavi, who stood in the wrong line during World War II, and supported his son to come to power.
Little Pahlavi launched a more radical "white revolution" to fundamentally change the old social system and build Iran into a modern capital power.
Including 19 reform plans such as land reform, privatization of state-owned enterprises, and women's equal rights.
In the early days, everything went well.
After the implementation of land reform, the government invested to buy back the "surplus" land of the landlords at the market price, and then sold it to the tenants by installment at a price 30% lower than the market price.
In just a few years, 92% of farmers in the country have their own land.
The tenants were extremely grateful, while the clergy were extremely angry, which was tantamount to cutting their roots.
The grateful tenants kissed the king's feet
But the problem arises immediately.
The farmers did not really own these lands, but they had to give them to the agricultural consortium (equivalent to agricultural cooperatives) promoted by the king. They could not directly transform them into productive forces from tenants to workers for cooperatives.
Those farmers who originally owned land also had to turn to usury for help because of capital XX and other reasons.
What is the final result? Land was gradually concentrated in the hands of capitalists, and a large number of rural people had to go to cities to find a livelihood.
From 1963 to 1978, the proportion of urban population in Iran rapidly increased from 30% to 52%.
In just 15 years, more than 8 million farmers have poured into cities.
They just become the "dividend" of industrialization and modernization.
From 1960 to 1979, Iran's GDP soared from 4.199 billion US dollars to 90.392 billion US dollars, with a compound annual growth rate of 17.53%.
In 1977, Iran's per capita GDP had reached 2200 US dollars, ranking 49th in the world (132 now), and it suddenly turned into a rich country.
At least in terms of economy, the White Revolution is undoubtedly very successful.
But the Persians suddenly fell into a mental crisis.
When Pahlavi was in power, it was the most open stage of Iran.
With the penetration of western culture and lifestyle into every field of big cities, many big cities in Iran have appeared bars, casinos, opera houses, discos, brothels and other places.
Many young women also began to imitate Europeans by taking off their veils and wearing tight pants and mini skirts.
Although these are contrary to the teachings, people are realistic.
If everyone's material life is getting better and better, we will not oppose it, even think that these are the embodiment of "progress".
But what if it gets worse?
Teheran young women in the 1970s
People are afraid of poverty, and more afraid of comparison.
Iran's secularization has indeed earned the whole country a great deal of wealth.
But those wealth only made some people rich, and most people were just "dividends" themselves.
Before the revolution, 1% of the rich accounted for 52% of the country's wealth, while 91% of the poor only accounted for 18%.
What's worse, the great wealth made the Pahlavi royal family forget themselves, spend lavishly, and live extremely extravagantly. This trend also led to the erosion of the whole society from top to bottom.
Take the capital Tehran as an example. At that time, the whole city was divided into two parts: In the north is a rich gathering area. Luxury western-style villas are located between colorful nightclubs; The southern part is a shantytown, with narrow streets and overcrowding.
Everything is the "result" of the king's reform.
The peasants hated the king, the citizens hated the king, and the landlords who lost their land hated the king even more.
People began to miss the past.
Tehran slums
On behalf of the priests in the past, he led the groups outside the system of the Pahlavi dynasty, backward areas and farmers to quickly return and launch the Islamic revolution.
In January 1979, Pahlavi fled in a hurry with members of the royal family.
On February 1, Khomeini returned to Tehran by Boeing 747. Millions of people greeted him at the airport and called him "Imam".
Imam is the medium between Shiite religious leaders, believers and Allah.
In March, Iran passed a referendum, and 98% of its citizens supported the Islamic Republic to replace the Pahlavi dynasty. Khomeini served as the supreme leader, responsible for guiding the citizens with religious teachings, and the President was responsible for specific matters.
"I appointed him. You must be loyal to him. To disobey him is to disobey Allah."
As the most devout believers, we have to support them if we don't support them.
But believers may have been taken in.
03 Ending
When Khomeini was in exile overseas, he always cried for equality of all people and elimination of the gap between rich and poor.
But after the success of the revolution, the restored priests not only confiscated all the property of the royal family, but also took most of the enterprises in the society as their own.
No one can restrain them, because Islamic Shariah law cannot govern the clerical class.
In order to manage so many enterprises, the missionary group has established more than 120 foundations, monopolizing almost all industries in the country.
For example, the pistachio market in Iran is monopolized by the Rafsanjani family.
At least for now, the gap between rich and poor in Iran is greater than that in the Pahlavi period.
Of course, there are also reasons for economic sanctions from Europe and the United States.
Since 2010, the Iranian currency has depreciated rapidly.
Some well-informed clergy have long exchanged US dollars through the black market to preserve their value, and only the fooled ordinary believers were finally trapped.
As time went by, the scene of selling organs above appeared.
Some people began to regret the integration of politics and religion.
Everything is the choice of believers.
Let's do that. (End of full text)
